海上可再生能源开发的综合评价与结构优化研究
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摘要
能源是经济和社会发展的重要基础。近年来随着经济的不断发展,能源需求快速增长,化石燃料等非可再生能源的大量消费不仅产生了能源短缺的问题,而且由此导致的环境污染及气候变化问题日益突出。而可再生能源,如储量丰富的海上可再生能源具有清洁、无污染,可永续利用的特点,因此加强海上等诸多类型的可再生能源开发利用是实现可持续发展的必由之路。
本文首先对国内外海上可再生能源开发利用现状及趋势进行总结,并根据海上可再生能源特点,从技术、经济、资源、环境、安全5个方面构建了海上可再生能源开发的评价指标体系,在此基础上,提出了基于模糊层次分析的海上可再生能源开发的综合评价方法,并构建了可再生能源与非可再生能源开发结构优化的数学模型。
接着以大连市海上可再生能源开发的综合评价为例进行实证研究。采用提出的评价指标体系及评价方法对大连市海上风能的开发进行了分析,得出影响大连市海上风能开发因素的重要性排序,提出大连市海上风能的开发意见；在对大连市能源供需情况、海洋功能区划进行分析的基础上,通过指标赋值、数据标准化得出大连市可再生能源和非可再生能源开发的综合评价。
最后以大连市海上可再生能源开发结构优化为例进行实证研究。根据提出的综合评价方法以及数学优化模型,构建了大连市可再生能源和非可再生能源开发的数学模型,采用CPLEX运筹优化软件求解,得出了大连市分别在2020年和2030年最优的能源结构,以及海上可再生能源所占的最优配额权重和发电量。结果对大连市未来海上可再生能源的发展规划以及能源产业的政策制定具有重要的参考价值。
Energy is an important foundation for economic and social development. In recent years, with the continuous development of economy and the rapid growth in energy demand, the mass consumption of fossil fuels and other non-renewable energy not only bring the problem of energy shortage, but also caused increasingly prominent problems of environmental pollution and climate change. Renewable energy sources, such as the abundant marine renewable energy, are clean, non-pollution and sustainable. Therefore, strengthening the exploiture of the renewable energy, especially marine renewable energy is the only way to achieve sustainable development.
Firstly, the status and trend of marine renewable energy exploiture are summarized and evaluation index system of marine renewable energy exploiture is built from five aspects, technology, economy, resource, environment and security according to the characteristics of different marine renewable energy. On this basis, the paper proposes the comprehensive evaluation method which includes fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, index assignment and data normalization. Then the mathematical optimization model of renewable energy exploiture and the model of non-renewable energy exploiture are constructed respectively for the purpose of studying the problem of the structural optimization of marine renewable energy exploiture.
Then, the paper takes an empirical study of comprehensive evaluation of marine renewable energy exploiture in Dalian. Marine wind energy exploiture in Dalian is analyzed by the proposed evaluation index system and method. The importance order of the influencing factors of marine wind energy exploiture in Dalian is determined and the suggestions of marine wind energy exploiture in Dalian are proposed. On the basis of the analysis of the energy supply and demand situation and marine function zoning in Dalian, the comprehensive evaluation score of the exploiture of renewable energy and non-renewable energy are obtain by the proposed index assignment and data normalization.
At last, the paper takes an empirical study of structure optimization of marine renewable energy exploiture in Dalian. According to the proposed evaluation method and mathematical optimization model, the mathematical model of renewable energy exploiture and the model of non-renewable energy exploiture in Dalian are constructed. The logistics optimization software CPLEX is used to solve the model and the optimal ratio of various energy exploiture of Dalian's in2020and2030are acquired. At the same time, the paper reveals the optimal exploiture proportion and electricity generation of marine renewable energy in Dalian. The results can play an important directive role in regulating development planning of marine renewable energy in the future and policy making of energy industry in Dalian.
本文首先对国内外海上可再生能源开发利用现状及趋势进行总结,并根据海上可再生能源特点,从技术、经济、资源、环境、安全5个方面构建了海上可再生能源开发的评价指标体系,在此基础上,提出了基于模糊层次分析的海上可再生能源开发的综合评价方法,并构建了可再生能源与非可再生能源开发结构优化的数学模型。
接着以大连市海上可再生能源开发的综合评价为例进行实证研究。采用提出的评价指标体系及评价方法对大连市海上风能的开发进行了分析,得出影响大连市海上风能开发因素的重要性排序,提出大连市海上风能的开发意见；在对大连市能源供需情况、海洋功能区划进行分析的基础上,通过指标赋值、数据标准化得出大连市可再生能源和非可再生能源开发的综合评价。
最后以大连市海上可再生能源开发结构优化为例进行实证研究。根据提出的综合评价方法以及数学优化模型,构建了大连市可再生能源和非可再生能源开发的数学模型,采用CPLEX运筹优化软件求解,得出了大连市分别在2020年和2030年最优的能源结构,以及海上可再生能源所占的最优配额权重和发电量。结果对大连市未来海上可再生能源的发展规划以及能源产业的政策制定具有重要的参考价值。
Energy is an important foundation for economic and social development. In recent years, with the continuous development of economy and the rapid growth in energy demand, the mass consumption of fossil fuels and other non-renewable energy not only bring the problem of energy shortage, but also caused increasingly prominent problems of environmental pollution and climate change. Renewable energy sources, such as the abundant marine renewable energy, are clean, non-pollution and sustainable. Therefore, strengthening the exploiture of the renewable energy, especially marine renewable energy is the only way to achieve sustainable development.
Firstly, the status and trend of marine renewable energy exploiture are summarized and evaluation index system of marine renewable energy exploiture is built from five aspects, technology, economy, resource, environment and security according to the characteristics of different marine renewable energy. On this basis, the paper proposes the comprehensive evaluation method which includes fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, index assignment and data normalization. Then the mathematical optimization model of renewable energy exploiture and the model of non-renewable energy exploiture are constructed respectively for the purpose of studying the problem of the structural optimization of marine renewable energy exploiture.
Then, the paper takes an empirical study of comprehensive evaluation of marine renewable energy exploiture in Dalian. Marine wind energy exploiture in Dalian is analyzed by the proposed evaluation index system and method. The importance order of the influencing factors of marine wind energy exploiture in Dalian is determined and the suggestions of marine wind energy exploiture in Dalian are proposed. On the basis of the analysis of the energy supply and demand situation and marine function zoning in Dalian, the comprehensive evaluation score of the exploiture of renewable energy and non-renewable energy are obtain by the proposed index assignment and data normalization.
At last, the paper takes an empirical study of structure optimization of marine renewable energy exploiture in Dalian. According to the proposed evaluation method and mathematical optimization model, the mathematical model of renewable energy exploiture and the model of non-renewable energy exploiture in Dalian are constructed. The logistics optimization software CPLEX is used to solve the model and the optimal ratio of various energy exploiture of Dalian's in2020and2030are acquired. At the same time, the paper reveals the optimal exploiture proportion and electricity generation of marine renewable energy in Dalian. The results can play an important directive role in regulating development planning of marine renewable energy in the future and policy making of energy industry in Dalian.
引文
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