重大灾害风险分散机制下保险经营模式研究
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摘要
自20世纪70年代以来,全球自然重大灾害和人为重大灾害的发生次数和损失程度均呈明显的上升趋势。我国是世界上灾害频发且损失严重的少数国家之一。随着重大灾害发生次数的增加和损失程度的加重,如何应对重大灾害风险已经成为学术界普遍关注的问题。保险作为一种集合风险和分散风险的有效机制,重大灾害保险成为重大灾害风险管理的重要途径之一。然而,随着重大灾害规模的不断增长,保险市场的承保能力也不足以承担特大的重大灾害损失。目前我国应对重大灾害风险的模式与大多数发展中国家一样,主要依靠灾后融资机制,即依靠灾后国家财政的支持以及国际援助。家庭和政府的重大灾害风险并没有实现有效转移,政府承担巨大的重大灾害风险,灾后将原本用于经济发展的大量财政预算转而用于紧急救助,从而影响经济发展。
本文以重大灾害风险相关理论为依据,以全球重大灾害风险发展形势及损失概算为着眼点,从减少重大灾害风险对我国经济造成的损失,维护社会稳定,促进民生的角度出发,研究重大灾害风险分散机制和保险市场经营情况。从传统再保险模式和非传统风险转移模式研究出发,进行重大灾害风险分散机制的比较研究。对现行模式下重大灾害保险市场主体行为进行分析,探讨公共干预对重大灾害风险分散的作用机理。从承保能力扩展、资本市场交易成本、投资者收益效应三个层面对重大灾害保险模式影响因素进行经济学分析,将传统风险模型与经济运行背景相结合,从保险监管、公平效率、财政经营等基本问题出发,研究重大灾害保险的制度供给。结合我国重大灾害保险经营历史及现状,借鉴国外重大灾害保险经营模式的先进经验,探讨建立适合我国的重大灾害风险分散的保险经营模式。以协调主体各方利益关系为原则,尝试建立一种符合我国国情的实现政府、保险行业、投保人三方联动的有效的重大灾害风险分散的保险经营系统模式。
Since 1970s, the occurrence of major natural disasters and man-made disasters in the world is increasing significantly. China is one of the few countries which suffer serious loss. How to deal with disaster risk has become a major academic issue of common concern. As an effective mechanism for risk diversification, major disaster insurance is one of the important ways in disaster risk management. However, with the scale of major disasters growing, insurance market capacity is insufficient to cover the large loss of major disaster. Presently in China, post-disaster financing mechanisms mainly rely on the support of national financial as well as international assistance, which are similar to the most developing countries. Risks of Families and Government did not achieve effective transfer. Original budget for economic development has to turn for emergency relief.
From maintenance of social stability caused by disaster risk reduction on the country's economic losses and promote the people's livelihood point of view, This article related to a major disaster risk theory and the risk of major disasters to the global development for the focus to study risk dispersion mechanisms and the operation of the insurance market. The paper selects private market and public intervention in risk spreading mechanism for the comparative study. After Use game theory to analyse the existing pattern of a major disaster under the conduct of the insurance market, establishment of a mechanism to spread the risks in a reasonable proportion of public and private assessments is possible. With distribution of disaster risk model and the nature of heavy-tailed, the author researches factors affecting the economics from the micro-and macro-economic conditions of individual behavior at two levels. Based on the traditional risk model and the background of economic operations, the paper introduces a double-delay model under the economic cycle.
From the insurance supervision, fair efficiency and the financial operations, with the study of disaster insurance system for the supply, foreign insurance business model is worth our using for reference. To coordinate the relationship between all interests parties, this paper try to establish an effective insurance operating system mode compliance with the Government, insurance industry and policyholders in tripartite linkage to spread the risks of disasters.
本文以重大灾害风险相关理论为依据,以全球重大灾害风险发展形势及损失概算为着眼点,从减少重大灾害风险对我国经济造成的损失,维护社会稳定,促进民生的角度出发,研究重大灾害风险分散机制和保险市场经营情况。从传统再保险模式和非传统风险转移模式研究出发,进行重大灾害风险分散机制的比较研究。对现行模式下重大灾害保险市场主体行为进行分析,探讨公共干预对重大灾害风险分散的作用机理。从承保能力扩展、资本市场交易成本、投资者收益效应三个层面对重大灾害保险模式影响因素进行经济学分析,将传统风险模型与经济运行背景相结合,从保险监管、公平效率、财政经营等基本问题出发,研究重大灾害保险的制度供给。结合我国重大灾害保险经营历史及现状,借鉴国外重大灾害保险经营模式的先进经验,探讨建立适合我国的重大灾害风险分散的保险经营模式。以协调主体各方利益关系为原则,尝试建立一种符合我国国情的实现政府、保险行业、投保人三方联动的有效的重大灾害风险分散的保险经营系统模式。
Since 1970s, the occurrence of major natural disasters and man-made disasters in the world is increasing significantly. China is one of the few countries which suffer serious loss. How to deal with disaster risk has become a major academic issue of common concern. As an effective mechanism for risk diversification, major disaster insurance is one of the important ways in disaster risk management. However, with the scale of major disasters growing, insurance market capacity is insufficient to cover the large loss of major disaster. Presently in China, post-disaster financing mechanisms mainly rely on the support of national financial as well as international assistance, which are similar to the most developing countries. Risks of Families and Government did not achieve effective transfer. Original budget for economic development has to turn for emergency relief.
From maintenance of social stability caused by disaster risk reduction on the country's economic losses and promote the people's livelihood point of view, This article related to a major disaster risk theory and the risk of major disasters to the global development for the focus to study risk dispersion mechanisms and the operation of the insurance market. The paper selects private market and public intervention in risk spreading mechanism for the comparative study. After Use game theory to analyse the existing pattern of a major disaster under the conduct of the insurance market, establishment of a mechanism to spread the risks in a reasonable proportion of public and private assessments is possible. With distribution of disaster risk model and the nature of heavy-tailed, the author researches factors affecting the economics from the micro-and macro-economic conditions of individual behavior at two levels. Based on the traditional risk model and the background of economic operations, the paper introduces a double-delay model under the economic cycle.
From the insurance supervision, fair efficiency and the financial operations, with the study of disaster insurance system for the supply, foreign insurance business model is worth our using for reference. To coordinate the relationship between all interests parties, this paper try to establish an effective insurance operating system mode compliance with the Government, insurance industry and policyholders in tripartite linkage to spread the risks of disasters.
引文
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