电信运营企业跨国经营目标国选择战略
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摘要
区位决策是企业对外直接投资过程中的首要问题,也是现阶段中国电信运营企业在“走出去”过程中面临的重要决策问题。目标国选择的好坏直接关系到企业跨国经营的成败。电信运营企业深受管制制度影响,各国在电信市场准入制度上的差异使企业能否进入目标国以及以何种地位进入均具有很大的不确定性,而全球移动通信市场逐步趋于饱和更使这种有限的市场进入机遇变得越来越具有竞争性,这使得传统的目标市场选择方法难以满足决策需要,成功的市场进入需要企业从战略视角审视目标国选择问题。本文基于竞争优势理论和FDI区位理论,从电信产业特性出发总结了电信运营企业跨国经营的现状和特点,在案例研究和大样本统计实证研究的基础上,挖掘电信运营企业跨国经营绩效的关键影响因素,并据此构建了目标国选择(TCS)决策模型,以中国移动为例进行了应用研究,为企业跨国经营目标国选择提供战略建议。
本文的创新点主要有以下三个方面：
1、对全球20家跨国电信运营企业在152个国家的竞争地位数据进行了统计,探讨了企业跨国经营理论对电信运营企业的适用性。研究发现,电信运营企业跨国经营并不总是从周边国家开始,其区位分布是随各国电信私有化和自由化改革进程的时间顺序进行。经济发展落后、国家风险高的新兴国家正成为投资热点,这与传统目标市场选择方法的结论相悖。现有的文献没有论证殖民地、语言等因素对企业跨国经营区位分布的影响程度,本文运用统计结果区分了各因素在不同区域对不同企业的影响。历史上的殖民地因素在拉丁美洲影响显著,语言和宗教因素在阿拉伯国家影响显著,区域经济一体化因素在欧洲影响显著,在非洲和亚太国家各因素均有影响,但影响程度在逐步弱化,在亚太国家尚没有形成具有区域主导地位的运营商。研究建议企业在跨国经营初期阶段应避免选择这些因素影响显著的区域。
2、选取了20家跨国电信运营企业从1995年至2009年的162次市场进入行为数据,运用多元回归分析等方法论证了企业进入目标国时的排名是电信运营企业跨国经营绩效的关键影响因素。本文将电信运营企业跨国经营绩效的影响因素分为目标国环境因素和企业市场进入行为两类,提出了各影响因素与绩效之间关系的7项研究假设,设置了相应的10个变量。研究结果表明,3项研究假设得到验证,其中企业进入目标国时的排名与企业跨国经营运营绩效呈显著正相关关系,目标国竞争者数量和进入时移动用户普及率与企业跨国经营绩效呈微弱负相关关系。而与原假设结论相反的是,目标国国家竞争力水平对企业跨国经营财务绩效产生一定负向影响。因此,建议企业选择能取得较高市场进入排名的目标国,选择移动用户普及率低、竞争者数量相对较少的国家并正视目标国国家竞争力水平低可能带来的风险,这一结论为TCS决策模型的指标设置提供了论据。
3、构建了TCS决策模型,并以中国移动为例对模型进行了应用研究,提供了具体到国家层次的目标国评价结果。本文按跨国经营的不同动因将模型分成寻求市场和追随客户两大类,决策按动因分析、目标国筛选、目标国评估、战略制定四个程序依次进行。现有的电信运营企业目标市场选择文献多是基于区域的选择结果和建议,方法上未考虑市场进入地位不确定情况下各影响因素的不同表现,本文在TCS模型构建过程中综合了前人的研究成果和研究假设的论证结果,在筛选机制中设置定量指标,在评估机制中采用定性定量指标相结合的方法,拓宽了评估范围。在两类决策过程中,分别对191个国家和30个国家样本进行筛选和评估,得到了五组战略方案组合,结果表明,与新加坡电信进行少数股权合作、收购MTN部分股权进入非洲市场、等待埃塞俄比亚和缅甸市场开放机遇在五组方案中相对较优。
Location choice is a primary decision-making problem for enterprises to make foreign direct investment and it is also a key issue facing Chinese telecom operators at their initial stage of implementing the "Going Global" strategy. Whether a target country is well selected or not is directly related to the success or failure of transnational operations of telecom operators. Telecom operators are highly affected by regulation policies. Due to the difference in market entry policies among countries, whether the operators can enter into the market or not and their possible market positions are of great uncertainty. As the global mobile communications market gradually becomes saturated, this limited market entry opportunities become even more competitive. Thus, the existing market selection methods are unable to meet the needs of decision-makers. Successful market entry requires the operators to look into the problem from the strategic perspective. In order to provide a simple and cost-effective method for China's telecom operators, a Target Country Selection (TCS) model is proposed in this dissertation. It is based on the earlier research in the areas of competitive advantage and FDI location theory together with telecom operators'special characteristics in transnational operations. Case studies and large sample statistical empirical research are used to find the relative influencing factors to lay the foundation of indicators for TCS model. China Mobile is selected as an example to apply the model and the suggestions regarding translational operations of the company is given afterwards.
The main contributions of this dissertation are as follows:
1. Twenty most internationalized telecom operators are ranked worldwide and their market positions in152countries are illustrated in statistics to analyze the applicability of traditional internationalization theories on telecom operators. Analysis shows that telecom operators chose target countries gradually according to the different regulatory reform timeframe of privatization and liberalization of various countries rather than just starting from neighboring countries. Emerging countries with less developed economy and higher country risks are becoming hotspot for global telecom investors, which are inconsistent with the results of traditional market selection methods. The degree to which extend the influencing factors such as colony, language and other factors have affected the location distribution of telecom operators are not analyzed yet in the existing literatures while this work has been done in this dissertation based on the statistics. Findings suggest that factors play different role in different regions. Latin America is affected significantly by the historical colonial factors. Linguistic and religious factors are important factors in Arab states and regional economic integration factors affected European countries greatly. In African and Asia-Pacific countries, all factors play a less important role as compared with other regions and there is no dominant global telecom operator in Asia-Pacific counties. Therefore, it is suggested that countries which are significantly affected by these factors should be better avoided during the initial stage of investment.
2. Market entry ranking is tested to be a key influencing factor on the performance of telecom cross-border operations by using multiple regression analysis method based on a sample of162foreign market entry moves conducted by20international telecom operators in the period from1995to2009. Influencing factors are divided into two types including target country environmental factors and operators'market entry behaviors. Seven hypotheses are proposed based on the relationship between factors and performance and10variables are set accordingly. Three hypotheses are finally tested.Among which, market entry ranking is positively correlated with the operators'operational performance while cross-border performance is negatively affected by the number of competitors in the target countries and the mobile penetration rate. However, Indicators of Global Competitive Index display negative affect on the operators'performance, which is different from the hypotheses. Therefore, it is important for operators to select those countries where they can achieve higher entry ranking. Countries with lower mobile penetration rate and relatively smaller number of competitors should be taken into account in selection and their potential risks which may be brought by the low GCI ranking should be addressed. Those results provide foundation for the indicators of TCS model.
3. A TCS model is established and China Mobile is selected to apply the model and evaluation results are given at a detailed country-level. The model is divided into two types as market seeking and follow-the-client respectively. For each type of model, the decision-making procedure will go through driver analysis, target country selection, target country assessment and strategy development. The existing literatures offer suggestions only on regional bases and fail to consider the difference in the factors resulted from the uncertainty of the possible market access statues the operators may have. While based on the previous research findings and the tested hypothesis, the TCS model adopt quantitative indicators in the screening procedure and make a combination of qualitative and quantitative indicators in the assessment procedure so that the assessment can be largely broadened. In the two types of decision-making process,191countries and30countries are screened and assessed and five groups of strategic options are obtained. Research finding suggest that getting minority interest in Singapore telecom or MTN, paying constant concern to wait for the market opening of Ethiopia and Myanmar are recommended options.
本文的创新点主要有以下三个方面：
1、对全球20家跨国电信运营企业在152个国家的竞争地位数据进行了统计,探讨了企业跨国经营理论对电信运营企业的适用性。研究发现,电信运营企业跨国经营并不总是从周边国家开始,其区位分布是随各国电信私有化和自由化改革进程的时间顺序进行。经济发展落后、国家风险高的新兴国家正成为投资热点,这与传统目标市场选择方法的结论相悖。现有的文献没有论证殖民地、语言等因素对企业跨国经营区位分布的影响程度,本文运用统计结果区分了各因素在不同区域对不同企业的影响。历史上的殖民地因素在拉丁美洲影响显著,语言和宗教因素在阿拉伯国家影响显著,区域经济一体化因素在欧洲影响显著,在非洲和亚太国家各因素均有影响,但影响程度在逐步弱化,在亚太国家尚没有形成具有区域主导地位的运营商。研究建议企业在跨国经营初期阶段应避免选择这些因素影响显著的区域。
2、选取了20家跨国电信运营企业从1995年至2009年的162次市场进入行为数据,运用多元回归分析等方法论证了企业进入目标国时的排名是电信运营企业跨国经营绩效的关键影响因素。本文将电信运营企业跨国经营绩效的影响因素分为目标国环境因素和企业市场进入行为两类,提出了各影响因素与绩效之间关系的7项研究假设,设置了相应的10个变量。研究结果表明,3项研究假设得到验证,其中企业进入目标国时的排名与企业跨国经营运营绩效呈显著正相关关系,目标国竞争者数量和进入时移动用户普及率与企业跨国经营绩效呈微弱负相关关系。而与原假设结论相反的是,目标国国家竞争力水平对企业跨国经营财务绩效产生一定负向影响。因此,建议企业选择能取得较高市场进入排名的目标国,选择移动用户普及率低、竞争者数量相对较少的国家并正视目标国国家竞争力水平低可能带来的风险,这一结论为TCS决策模型的指标设置提供了论据。
3、构建了TCS决策模型,并以中国移动为例对模型进行了应用研究,提供了具体到国家层次的目标国评价结果。本文按跨国经营的不同动因将模型分成寻求市场和追随客户两大类,决策按动因分析、目标国筛选、目标国评估、战略制定四个程序依次进行。现有的电信运营企业目标市场选择文献多是基于区域的选择结果和建议,方法上未考虑市场进入地位不确定情况下各影响因素的不同表现,本文在TCS模型构建过程中综合了前人的研究成果和研究假设的论证结果,在筛选机制中设置定量指标,在评估机制中采用定性定量指标相结合的方法,拓宽了评估范围。在两类决策过程中,分别对191个国家和30个国家样本进行筛选和评估,得到了五组战略方案组合,结果表明,与新加坡电信进行少数股权合作、收购MTN部分股权进入非洲市场、等待埃塞俄比亚和缅甸市场开放机遇在五组方案中相对较优。
Location choice is a primary decision-making problem for enterprises to make foreign direct investment and it is also a key issue facing Chinese telecom operators at their initial stage of implementing the "Going Global" strategy. Whether a target country is well selected or not is directly related to the success or failure of transnational operations of telecom operators. Telecom operators are highly affected by regulation policies. Due to the difference in market entry policies among countries, whether the operators can enter into the market or not and their possible market positions are of great uncertainty. As the global mobile communications market gradually becomes saturated, this limited market entry opportunities become even more competitive. Thus, the existing market selection methods are unable to meet the needs of decision-makers. Successful market entry requires the operators to look into the problem from the strategic perspective. In order to provide a simple and cost-effective method for China's telecom operators, a Target Country Selection (TCS) model is proposed in this dissertation. It is based on the earlier research in the areas of competitive advantage and FDI location theory together with telecom operators'special characteristics in transnational operations. Case studies and large sample statistical empirical research are used to find the relative influencing factors to lay the foundation of indicators for TCS model. China Mobile is selected as an example to apply the model and the suggestions regarding translational operations of the company is given afterwards.
The main contributions of this dissertation are as follows:
1. Twenty most internationalized telecom operators are ranked worldwide and their market positions in152countries are illustrated in statistics to analyze the applicability of traditional internationalization theories on telecom operators. Analysis shows that telecom operators chose target countries gradually according to the different regulatory reform timeframe of privatization and liberalization of various countries rather than just starting from neighboring countries. Emerging countries with less developed economy and higher country risks are becoming hotspot for global telecom investors, which are inconsistent with the results of traditional market selection methods. The degree to which extend the influencing factors such as colony, language and other factors have affected the location distribution of telecom operators are not analyzed yet in the existing literatures while this work has been done in this dissertation based on the statistics. Findings suggest that factors play different role in different regions. Latin America is affected significantly by the historical colonial factors. Linguistic and religious factors are important factors in Arab states and regional economic integration factors affected European countries greatly. In African and Asia-Pacific countries, all factors play a less important role as compared with other regions and there is no dominant global telecom operator in Asia-Pacific counties. Therefore, it is suggested that countries which are significantly affected by these factors should be better avoided during the initial stage of investment.
2. Market entry ranking is tested to be a key influencing factor on the performance of telecom cross-border operations by using multiple regression analysis method based on a sample of162foreign market entry moves conducted by20international telecom operators in the period from1995to2009. Influencing factors are divided into two types including target country environmental factors and operators'market entry behaviors. Seven hypotheses are proposed based on the relationship between factors and performance and10variables are set accordingly. Three hypotheses are finally tested.Among which, market entry ranking is positively correlated with the operators'operational performance while cross-border performance is negatively affected by the number of competitors in the target countries and the mobile penetration rate. However, Indicators of Global Competitive Index display negative affect on the operators'performance, which is different from the hypotheses. Therefore, it is important for operators to select those countries where they can achieve higher entry ranking. Countries with lower mobile penetration rate and relatively smaller number of competitors should be taken into account in selection and their potential risks which may be brought by the low GCI ranking should be addressed. Those results provide foundation for the indicators of TCS model.
3. A TCS model is established and China Mobile is selected to apply the model and evaluation results are given at a detailed country-level. The model is divided into two types as market seeking and follow-the-client respectively. For each type of model, the decision-making procedure will go through driver analysis, target country selection, target country assessment and strategy development. The existing literatures offer suggestions only on regional bases and fail to consider the difference in the factors resulted from the uncertainty of the possible market access statues the operators may have. While based on the previous research findings and the tested hypothesis, the TCS model adopt quantitative indicators in the screening procedure and make a combination of qualitative and quantitative indicators in the assessment procedure so that the assessment can be largely broadened. In the two types of decision-making process,191countries and30countries are screened and assessed and five groups of strategic options are obtained. Research finding suggest that getting minority interest in Singapore telecom or MTN, paying constant concern to wait for the market opening of Ethiopia and Myanmar are recommended options.
引文
1本论文得到国家自然科学基金项目资助,是“国际化逃程中提升中国电信运营企业国际竞争力途径的研究”(项目批准号：70773012)项目的组成部分。文中脚注与参考文献均以上标数字方式出现,其中参考文献的上标数字外加注了中括号。
2本文中出现的国外电信运营企业的英文名称、中文译名及常用简称对照在附录Ⅰ中有详细说明。
3参考了郑园园发表在2002年9月19日《环球时报》中的“疯狂投资失败法国电信负债700亿”一文。
8参考了2004年7月28日《通信世界》“中国电信业‘走出去’的背后是什么”一文。
14北京邮电大学经济管理学院电信企业跨国经营相关硕士论文包括：①张莹,中国电信运营企业跨国并购战略研究,2007年3月；②赵卫卫,电信运营企业海外扩张中的资本运作,2007年10月；③晏建,中国电信运营企业的国际化现状及对策研究,2008年3月；④丁婕,电信运营商国际化战略决策模型研究,2009年2月;⑤张里,中国电信企业国际化实证研究,2009年2月。
15参考了2006年华中科技大学黄雅俊的硕士论文。
16参考了2004年7月28日《通信世界》“中国电信业‘走出去’的背后是什么”一文。
26参考了林敏发表在2002年9月17日《通信信息报》中的“中国电信获美牌照有利提供全球‘一站式’服务”一文。
27参考自古晓宇“在中国移动在台子公司获批成立”的报道,文章发表红2010年5月12日的《京华时报》。
28参考自马勇“沃达丰出售中国移动3.2%股权套现447亿元”的报道,文章发表在2010年9月9日的《羊城晚报》。
29资料参考中国移动官方网站http://10086.cn/aboutus/intro/200907/t2009072712053.htm。
30参考自明叔“中国移动止步Millicom"的报道,文章发表在2006年7月10日的《互联网周刊》。
33中国移动巴基斯坦案例数据来自巴基斯坦电信管理局PTA2007,2008,2009,2010年年报。
34郭永宏,中国移动巴基斯坦首席执行官。他对于中田移动巴基斯坦的运营经验总结方面可参见文献[130],
“巴基斯坦与中国电信业的主要差异”,“巴基斯坦电信业监管政策及其对运营商的影响”,以及2008年通信世界网对他的采访“中国移动巴基斯坦公司CEO：爱拼才会赢”等相关文献及报道。
35观点参考自马晓芳“王建宙五进巴基斯坦中国移动突围田际化”的报道,文章发表在2010年6月23日的《第一财经日报》。
57参考自FitchRatings,Rating European Telecoms Companies, Telecommunications Europe Special Report,Feb.2010
59参考自Fitch Ratings, Telecommunications Asia Pacific Special Report:Impact of Regulation on Free Cash Flow and Ratings, Dec.1,2009.
64观点来自与印度电信专家Chowdary在北邮进行的交流。
65参考了2010年5月《第一财经日报》中马晓芳的撰文“华为的‘印度式’成长：禁售源于华为的强大”
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2本文中出现的国外电信运营企业的英文名称、中文译名及常用简称对照在附录Ⅰ中有详细说明。
3参考了郑园园发表在2002年9月19日《环球时报》中的“疯狂投资失败法国电信负债700亿”一文。
8参考了2004年7月28日《通信世界》“中国电信业‘走出去’的背后是什么”一文。
14北京邮电大学经济管理学院电信企业跨国经营相关硕士论文包括：①张莹,中国电信运营企业跨国并购战略研究,2007年3月；②赵卫卫,电信运营企业海外扩张中的资本运作,2007年10月；③晏建,中国电信运营企业的国际化现状及对策研究,2008年3月；④丁婕,电信运营商国际化战略决策模型研究,2009年2月;⑤张里,中国电信企业国际化实证研究,2009年2月。
15参考了2006年华中科技大学黄雅俊的硕士论文。
16参考了2004年7月28日《通信世界》“中国电信业‘走出去’的背后是什么”一文。
26参考了林敏发表在2002年9月17日《通信信息报》中的“中国电信获美牌照有利提供全球‘一站式’服务”一文。
27参考自古晓宇“在中国移动在台子公司获批成立”的报道,文章发表红2010年5月12日的《京华时报》。
28参考自马勇“沃达丰出售中国移动3.2%股权套现447亿元”的报道,文章发表在2010年9月9日的《羊城晚报》。
29资料参考中国移动官方网站http://10086.cn/aboutus/intro/200907/t2009072712053.htm。
30参考自明叔“中国移动止步Millicom"的报道,文章发表在2006年7月10日的《互联网周刊》。
33中国移动巴基斯坦案例数据来自巴基斯坦电信管理局PTA2007,2008,2009,2010年年报。
34郭永宏,中国移动巴基斯坦首席执行官。他对于中田移动巴基斯坦的运营经验总结方面可参见文献[130],
“巴基斯坦与中国电信业的主要差异”,“巴基斯坦电信业监管政策及其对运营商的影响”,以及2008年通信世界网对他的采访“中国移动巴基斯坦公司CEO：爱拼才会赢”等相关文献及报道。
35观点参考自马晓芳“王建宙五进巴基斯坦中国移动突围田际化”的报道,文章发表在2010年6月23日的《第一财经日报》。
57参考自FitchRatings,Rating European Telecoms Companies, Telecommunications Europe Special Report,Feb.2010
59参考自Fitch Ratings, Telecommunications Asia Pacific Special Report:Impact of Regulation on Free Cash Flow and Ratings, Dec.1,2009.
64观点来自与印度电信专家Chowdary在北邮进行的交流。
65参考了2010年5月《第一财经日报》中马晓芳的撰文“华为的‘印度式’成长：禁售源于华为的强大”
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