时—空二维波传播分解和主时间尺度分析及其在大气季节内振荡研究中的应用
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摘要
大气季节内振荡自20世纪70年代被发现以来,日渐受到气象学界的广泛重视。目前学术界已普遍认为:大气季节内振荡是地球大气运动的一种广泛存在的变化现象,甚至可看作是全球大气运动的一种固有特征。大气季节内振荡对亚洲季风区、澳洲季风区、太平洋地区、北美西海岸以及南美洲和非洲地区的降水变率有着重要影响。大气季节内振荡调制着太平洋和加勒比海地区台风的生成,影响着赤道大西洋的表面风,同时还与ENSO事件有着一定的联系。有关大气季节内振荡的研究,弥补了中长期天气预报和短期气候预测的缝隙,对于气象事业的发展来说,其研究具有重要的意义。
本文抓住大气季节内振荡具有多种传播方向这一本质的特征,根据波的传播理论,提出了时-空二维波传播分解方法,这一方法突破了传统分析方法都是对变量整体进行分析的局限性。围绕着这一新方法,对热带地区大气季节内振荡的基本特征进行了全面的分析,对热带地区大气季节内振荡纬向传播特征与ENSO事件的可能联系进行了深入的研究,对东亚季风区大气季节内振荡的特征及其对中国江淮流域洪涝的影响进行了重点剖析。另外,本文从持续时间的角度提出了一种判断时间序列主要时间尺度的方法:主时间尺度分析,之后采用此方法从全球的角度分析了大气季节内振荡存在的主要区域。
本文的主要结论如下:
(1)针对大气季节内振荡具有多种传播方向这一本质特征,基于波的传播理论,提出了时-空二维波传播分解方法。并利用理想的数学函数对这一方法的正确性和可行性进行了验证。结果表明:采用此方法可以对构造的理想函数进行正确的分解,得到与构造前相同的分量场。这就从理想函数的角度验证了时-空二维波传播分解方法的正确性和可行性。
(2)采用时-空二维波传播分解方法,我们对热带地区大气季节内振荡的基本特征进行了研究,结果表明:在热带地区,东传分量场上,大气季节内振荡信号的系统性东传现象显著,主要时间周期为30-60天,空间主要表现为纬向1波特征,对流层上、下层呈反位相的“斜压”结构;相对而言,西传分量场上,大气季节内振荡信号的西传特征无论强度还是系统性都要弱很多,仅在个别年份比较清楚。采用新方法得到的结论和传统结论是基本一致的,这从实际资料的角度验证了时-空二维波传播分解方法的正确性,说明将其用于研究大气季节内振荡是可行的。
(3)采用时-空二维波传播分解方法,对热带地区大气季节内振荡的纬向传播特征与ENSO事件的相互关系进行了重点研究。分析指出:在El Nino年,无论其前期冬半年还是夏半年,东传分量场上系统性东传的季节内振荡信号都很强烈,而西传分量场上则没有明显的特征,在El Nino峰值出现后的冬季,东传分量场上大气季节内振荡信号的东传明显受到抑制,主要集中在东半球,西传分量场上冬季大气季节内振荡的西传也显著的加强,且也主要出现在东半球。在La Nina年,其前期冬半年的东传分量上,大气季节内振荡信号存在着系统性东传,更为突出的是,在其前期夏季的西传分量场上出现了西传的季节内振荡信号,在La Nina峰值出现后的冬季,东传分量场上大气季节内振荡的系统性东传显著加强,而西传明显减弱甚至消失。这说明热带大气季节内振荡纬向的东、西传播与ENSO的冷、暖事件有着密切的联系,而且ENSO与热带大气季节内振荡东、西传播之间的关系在冷事件和暖事件前期及同期表现出不同的特征。采用时-空二维波传播分解方法得到的结论与传统的认为MJO-ENSO之间存在一定的超前滞后关系的结论是基本一致的,再次从实际资料的角度验证了新方法的正确性和可行性,同时,这为我们探讨热带大气季节内振荡与ENSO事件之间的关系提供了一个新视角。
(4)采用时-空二维波传播分解方法,对东亚季风区内大气季节内振荡的特征及其对中国江淮流域洪涝的影响进行了深入的剖析,研究表明:江淮流域洪涝受到来自四个方向大气季节内振荡信号的影响,分别是:北传的暖湿气流,南下的干冷空气,从70°E附近开始的东传气流和140°E左右开始的西传气流。这四部分有的年份全部存在,有的年份则会有某一部分或几部分的缺失。通过对1998年长江流域降水偏多年份的分析,指出:长江流域出现洪涝时,这四部分均存在,并且基本同时交汇于长江流域,从而对长江流域该时段的集中降水共同起作用。通过对2003年淮河流域降水偏多年份的分析,指出:淮河流域出现洪涝时,出现了东传分量场上大气季节内振荡东传的缺失,以及南传分量大气季节内振荡信号的减弱,这使得降水集中区域显著北移,从而造成了淮河流域降水的偏多。这一部分工作,从实际资料的角度,进一步验证了时-空二维波传播分解方法的正确性和可行性,同时,指出了该方法是不受区域限制的,在有限的区域内同样成立且有意义。这为我们以后的研究工作拓宽了思路。
(5)本文另一部分重要内容是:从持续时间的角度,提出了一种判断时间序列主要时间尺度的新方法一主时间尺度分析。首先,从理想函数的角度对该方法进行了验证,结果表明:该方法是正确可行的。其次,与功率谱进行了比较,指出了主时间尺度分析方法的优点:主时间尺度分析方法对包含任意周期长度的序列都能得到较为准确的结果;相较于功率谱分析方法,主时间尺度分析方法具有稳定性好的优点;最大的优点是主时间尺度分析易于同时对多个空间点进行计算。之后,采用主时间尺度分析方法,给出了以季节内振荡时间尺度为主的区域的全球分布情况。
Since the Intraseasonal Oscillation was first documented by Madden and Julian,this phenomenon has intrigued many atmospheric scientists and oceanographers all over the world.For many scientists,it is well known that the Intraseasonal Oscillation is one dominant component of the global atmosphere.It influences the variability of rainfall over the Pacific islands,in the monsoon regions of Asia and Australia,along the west coast of North America,in South American,and in Africa.It modulates the genesis of tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea and affects equatorial surface winds in the Atlantic Ocean.It may influence the evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).Owing to its connection to these and other weather and climate systems,it is important and necessary to investigate the characteristics of the Intraseasonal Oscillation and its relationship with the weather and climate systems.
In this paper,based on wave propagation theory,we propose a new analysis method:Space-Time two-dimensional wave propagation decomposition method (STWPD).We investigate the characteristics of the Intreaseasonal Oscillation and its relationship with ENSO and the flood of Jiang Huai basin,using the new method. Meanwhile,a new method is proposed to determine the principle time scale,in view of persistent period.
The major results are as follows:
(1)Based on the wave propagation theory,we propose a new analysis method: STWPD method.Then,we test and verify the accuracy and practicability of this method using the ideal function.The results show that this method is valid and feasible.
(2)Using STWPD method,we investigate the characteristics of the Intraseasonal Oscillation in tropics.It is shown that our results using this new method are same with that of traditional method.The results suggest that this new method is also valid and feasible for the actual data.
(3)Using STWPD method,we investigate the relationship between the MJO and ENSO.The results show that the MJO influence the evolution of El Nino and La Nina.Meanwhile,the El Nino and La Nina also modulate the genesis of the MJO.
(4)Using STWPD method,we investigate the ISO of the East Asian Monsoon Region and its connection to the flood of Jiang Huai basin.In 1998,the Yangtze River Basin flood,the eastern propagating and western propagating of ISO are all appear and arrive the Yangtze River Basin at the same time.In 2003,the Hwai River Valley flood,the remarkable difference is that the eastern propagating of ISO is absent by comparison with that in l998.
(5)Anther important content of this paper is that,we propose a new method to determine the important time scale in view of persistent period.It is Principle Time-scale analysis(PTSA).Then using the ideal function and climate indices; we test and verify the accuracy and practicability of this method.The results show that this method is valid and feasible.Furthermore,we give a global distribution of principle time-scale of ISO using this method.
本文抓住大气季节内振荡具有多种传播方向这一本质的特征,根据波的传播理论,提出了时-空二维波传播分解方法,这一方法突破了传统分析方法都是对变量整体进行分析的局限性。围绕着这一新方法,对热带地区大气季节内振荡的基本特征进行了全面的分析,对热带地区大气季节内振荡纬向传播特征与ENSO事件的可能联系进行了深入的研究,对东亚季风区大气季节内振荡的特征及其对中国江淮流域洪涝的影响进行了重点剖析。另外,本文从持续时间的角度提出了一种判断时间序列主要时间尺度的方法:主时间尺度分析,之后采用此方法从全球的角度分析了大气季节内振荡存在的主要区域。
本文的主要结论如下:
(1)针对大气季节内振荡具有多种传播方向这一本质特征,基于波的传播理论,提出了时-空二维波传播分解方法。并利用理想的数学函数对这一方法的正确性和可行性进行了验证。结果表明:采用此方法可以对构造的理想函数进行正确的分解,得到与构造前相同的分量场。这就从理想函数的角度验证了时-空二维波传播分解方法的正确性和可行性。
(2)采用时-空二维波传播分解方法,我们对热带地区大气季节内振荡的基本特征进行了研究,结果表明:在热带地区,东传分量场上,大气季节内振荡信号的系统性东传现象显著,主要时间周期为30-60天,空间主要表现为纬向1波特征,对流层上、下层呈反位相的“斜压”结构;相对而言,西传分量场上,大气季节内振荡信号的西传特征无论强度还是系统性都要弱很多,仅在个别年份比较清楚。采用新方法得到的结论和传统结论是基本一致的,这从实际资料的角度验证了时-空二维波传播分解方法的正确性,说明将其用于研究大气季节内振荡是可行的。
(3)采用时-空二维波传播分解方法,对热带地区大气季节内振荡的纬向传播特征与ENSO事件的相互关系进行了重点研究。分析指出:在El Nino年,无论其前期冬半年还是夏半年,东传分量场上系统性东传的季节内振荡信号都很强烈,而西传分量场上则没有明显的特征,在El Nino峰值出现后的冬季,东传分量场上大气季节内振荡信号的东传明显受到抑制,主要集中在东半球,西传分量场上冬季大气季节内振荡的西传也显著的加强,且也主要出现在东半球。在La Nina年,其前期冬半年的东传分量上,大气季节内振荡信号存在着系统性东传,更为突出的是,在其前期夏季的西传分量场上出现了西传的季节内振荡信号,在La Nina峰值出现后的冬季,东传分量场上大气季节内振荡的系统性东传显著加强,而西传明显减弱甚至消失。这说明热带大气季节内振荡纬向的东、西传播与ENSO的冷、暖事件有着密切的联系,而且ENSO与热带大气季节内振荡东、西传播之间的关系在冷事件和暖事件前期及同期表现出不同的特征。采用时-空二维波传播分解方法得到的结论与传统的认为MJO-ENSO之间存在一定的超前滞后关系的结论是基本一致的,再次从实际资料的角度验证了新方法的正确性和可行性,同时,这为我们探讨热带大气季节内振荡与ENSO事件之间的关系提供了一个新视角。
(4)采用时-空二维波传播分解方法,对东亚季风区内大气季节内振荡的特征及其对中国江淮流域洪涝的影响进行了深入的剖析,研究表明:江淮流域洪涝受到来自四个方向大气季节内振荡信号的影响,分别是:北传的暖湿气流,南下的干冷空气,从70°E附近开始的东传气流和140°E左右开始的西传气流。这四部分有的年份全部存在,有的年份则会有某一部分或几部分的缺失。通过对1998年长江流域降水偏多年份的分析,指出:长江流域出现洪涝时,这四部分均存在,并且基本同时交汇于长江流域,从而对长江流域该时段的集中降水共同起作用。通过对2003年淮河流域降水偏多年份的分析,指出:淮河流域出现洪涝时,出现了东传分量场上大气季节内振荡东传的缺失,以及南传分量大气季节内振荡信号的减弱,这使得降水集中区域显著北移,从而造成了淮河流域降水的偏多。这一部分工作,从实际资料的角度,进一步验证了时-空二维波传播分解方法的正确性和可行性,同时,指出了该方法是不受区域限制的,在有限的区域内同样成立且有意义。这为我们以后的研究工作拓宽了思路。
(5)本文另一部分重要内容是:从持续时间的角度,提出了一种判断时间序列主要时间尺度的新方法一主时间尺度分析。首先,从理想函数的角度对该方法进行了验证,结果表明:该方法是正确可行的。其次,与功率谱进行了比较,指出了主时间尺度分析方法的优点:主时间尺度分析方法对包含任意周期长度的序列都能得到较为准确的结果;相较于功率谱分析方法,主时间尺度分析方法具有稳定性好的优点;最大的优点是主时间尺度分析易于同时对多个空间点进行计算。之后,采用主时间尺度分析方法,给出了以季节内振荡时间尺度为主的区域的全球分布情况。
Since the Intraseasonal Oscillation was first documented by Madden and Julian,this phenomenon has intrigued many atmospheric scientists and oceanographers all over the world.For many scientists,it is well known that the Intraseasonal Oscillation is one dominant component of the global atmosphere.It influences the variability of rainfall over the Pacific islands,in the monsoon regions of Asia and Australia,along the west coast of North America,in South American,and in Africa.It modulates the genesis of tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea and affects equatorial surface winds in the Atlantic Ocean.It may influence the evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).Owing to its connection to these and other weather and climate systems,it is important and necessary to investigate the characteristics of the Intraseasonal Oscillation and its relationship with the weather and climate systems.
In this paper,based on wave propagation theory,we propose a new analysis method:Space-Time two-dimensional wave propagation decomposition method (STWPD).We investigate the characteristics of the Intreaseasonal Oscillation and its relationship with ENSO and the flood of Jiang Huai basin,using the new method. Meanwhile,a new method is proposed to determine the principle time scale,in view of persistent period.
The major results are as follows:
(1)Based on the wave propagation theory,we propose a new analysis method: STWPD method.Then,we test and verify the accuracy and practicability of this method using the ideal function.The results show that this method is valid and feasible.
(2)Using STWPD method,we investigate the characteristics of the Intraseasonal Oscillation in tropics.It is shown that our results using this new method are same with that of traditional method.The results suggest that this new method is also valid and feasible for the actual data.
(3)Using STWPD method,we investigate the relationship between the MJO and ENSO.The results show that the MJO influence the evolution of El Nino and La Nina.Meanwhile,the El Nino and La Nina also modulate the genesis of the MJO.
(4)Using STWPD method,we investigate the ISO of the East Asian Monsoon Region and its connection to the flood of Jiang Huai basin.In 1998,the Yangtze River Basin flood,the eastern propagating and western propagating of ISO are all appear and arrive the Yangtze River Basin at the same time.In 2003,the Hwai River Valley flood,the remarkable difference is that the eastern propagating of ISO is absent by comparison with that in l998.
(5)Anther important content of this paper is that,we propose a new method to determine the important time scale in view of persistent period.It is Principle Time-scale analysis(PTSA).Then using the ideal function and climate indices; we test and verify the accuracy and practicability of this method.The results show that this method is valid and feasible.Furthermore,we give a global distribution of principle time-scale of ISO using this method.
引文
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