印太暖池区域海气相互作用的年际变化及其与低纬高原夏季降水异常的关系研究
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摘要
低纬高原位于我国西南地区,是诸多河流的水源地,山洪、滑坡泥石流、干旱等自然灾害发生频繁,降水的时空分布极为不均。2009年以来,又发生了有气象记录以来未见的特大连年干旱,对人民的生产生活造成了很大的影响。提高低纬高原地区降水的预测水平,对于减灾防灾和加强水资源的利用具有非常重要的现实意义。本文在总结前人研究工作的基础上,利用欧洲气象中心ERA-interim再分析资料、Hadley环流中心Hadlsst海温资料、低纬高原降水观测等资料,综合应用相关分析、功率谱分析、扩展奇异值分解(ESVD)、合成分析等统计诊断方法,对印度洋暖池和西太平洋暖池区域的海气相互作用及低纬高原降水的基本特征、年际变化和相互关系进行了分析诊断,研究了暖池区域海气相互作用年际异常变化与大气环流和低纬高原降水异常之间的关系及其物理过程,并用COSMOS1.2.1数值模式对分析结果进行了进一步的分析和验证。
(1)利用合成分析、相关分析与功率谱分析的方法,分析了印太暖池区域海气相互作用的基本特征。分析结果表明,印太暖池区夏季各月潜热通量和感热通量都为正值,海洋对大气有正的加热效应。感热通量平均值及其年际变化的距平值均比潜热通量的要小一个量级。印太暖池地区6、7、8月间潜热通量和感热通量的变化具有显著的一致性。从夏季的平均值上看,印度洋暖池的潜热通量较西太平洋暖池高约20W/m2；西太平洋暖池的感热通量比印度洋暖池高约2W/m2。实况资料分析和数值模拟的结果均表明,暖池区域海气相互作用存在比较明显的年际和年代际周期变化,年际变化周期以准2年和4—-6年周期为主,年代际变化周期以准11年和16年周期为主。
(2)利用ESVD方法,将潜热通量和感热通量并联作为左场与低纬高原降水场进行ESVD分析,ESVD的分析效果较好。6、7和8月各自分解的第一奇异降水场都为符号一致型,其代表了低纬高原地区降水的一致偏多或偏少。针对各月分解的结果,定义了正负异常年,并据此对大气环流各要素进行了差值合成分析。分析结果较好的解释了热通量异常对低纬高原夏季降水影响的物理过程。6、7月热通量异常影响低纬高原降水的物理过程基本相同。当6、7月潜热通量在印度洋暖池中北部出现正异常、在西太平洋暖池西部出现正异常东北部出现负异常时,印度洋北部和西太平洋暖池西部大气增温、增湿,促使南海北部和孟加拉湾北部低压发展,季风环流加强,赤道辐合带(ITCZ)加强北伸,为低纬高原地区降水的增加提供了有利的水汽输送条件和动力辐合条件,因而使低纬高原6、7月降水增多,反之亦然。8月份影响的物理过程情况与6、7月差异较大,当8月份印度洋暖池东北部和西太平洋暖池西北部潜热通量为负异常时,海洋对该区域大气的热量、水汽输送减少,导致南海北部和孟加拉湾北部高压异常发展,高压外围气流对低纬高原的水汽输送加强。同时两个高压的异常发展,使低纬高原处于两高之间的辐合区中,低纬高原经度位置ITCZ加强北伸,对低纬高原降水的增加提供了有利的动力条件,使低纬高原地区降水增多,反之亦然。
(3) ESVD分析和模拟结果发现,在印太暖池地区,潜热通量和大气环流的异常变化存在着明显的正反馈过程。低压扰动的发展将导致地面的风速增大,风速的增大将使得潜热通量增大,大气从海洋获得更多潜热加热与水汽输送,凝结潜热的释放又进一步导致低压和对流的发展,风速进一步加大,如此形成一个相互促进的正反馈过程。在潜热通量与大气相互作用的正反馈机制中,海温和感热通量的响应对这种正反馈过程起到一定的抑制作用。潜热输送和大气环流间存在的正反馈作用一定程度上解释了低纬高原区夏季降水异常的发生机制。印太暖池地区,潜热通量异常出现的位置与大气环流异常的位置间存在一定的规律性。相对于潜热通量异常和地面风速异常中心,垂直速度异常和降水异常的区域要偏北3—4个纬度,低层环流异常中心和地面气压异常中心要偏北7—9个纬度。
(4)数值模式比较好的模拟了印太暖池区域海气相互作用基本特征。根据ESVD分析潜热通量奇异向量场,在数值模拟的结果中,分6、7和8月分别构建了潜热通量奇异场的时间系数,并分别进行了差值合成分析。数值模式比较好的再现了ESVD分析出的海气相互作用异常形态,模式分析的结果证明了分析得到的印太暖池区域海气相互作用影响低纬高原夏季降水的物理过程的正确。
(5)综合全文的分析结果,建立了6、7月和8月海气相互作用异常影响低纬高原降水的物理模型。6、7月的模型主要为：当印度洋暖池中北部潜热通量正(负)异常、西太平洋暖池西部正(负)异常东北部负(正)异常时,海洋对印度洋北部和西太平洋暖池西部大气的热量、水汽输送多(少),导致南海北部至孟加拉湾北部一线对流层下部低压(高压)发展,ITCZ加强北仲(减弱南退),季风环流加强(减弱),引起对低纬高原地区的水汽输送加强(减弱),动力辐合作用加强(减弱),最终导致低纬高原降水偏多(少)。
8月的模型主要为：当印度洋暖池中北部潜热通量负(正)异常、西太平洋暖池西部负(正)异常时,海洋对印度洋北部和西太平洋暖池西部大气的热量、水汽输送少(多),导致南海北部、孟加拉湾北部高压异常发展(减弱),引起高压外围气流对低纬高原水汽输送增强(减弱),易(不易)在低纬高原地区形成两高辐合,低纬高原至中南半岛地区地区,ITCZ加强北伸(减弱南退),有正(负)的季风环流异常,季风环流的异常上升(下沉)气流位于低纬高原地区,增强(减弱)了对低纬高原地区的水汽输送以及低纬高原地区的垂直上升运动,最终导致低纬高原降水偏多(少)。
Low-Latitude Plateau located at southwest China, is the water source of many rivers. Flash floods, landslides, mudslides, drought and other natural disasters were occurred frequently. The precipitation's temporal and spatial distribution is extremely uneven. Since2009, a drought successive years took place which not be seen since meteorological records, and had a great impact on the production and life of the people. It has a very important practical significance for disaster reduction and prevention, and strengthening the use of water resources to improve the precipitation forecast level in Latitude Plateau. In this paper, on the basis of previous studies, the ERA-interim reanalysis data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, HadIsst sea temperature data set of the Met Office Hadley Centre, low-latitude plateau precipitation data, forecast results have been used by integrated application analysis, power spectrum analysis, extended singular value decomposition(ESVD) and other statistical diagnostic methods to study the basic features of the Indian Ocean warm pool, the western Pacific warm pool and Low-Latitude plateau precipitation, their interannual variability, their relationship, the atmosphere-ocean interaction and it's processes and physical mechanisms. The numerical model COSMOS1.2.1was used for further analysis and verification.
(1) By using synthetic analysis, correlation analysis and power spectral analysis method, the basic characteristics of the air-sea interaction in the Indo-Pacific warm pool have been analyzed. The analyses results show that the Indo-Pacific warm pool latent heat flux and sensible heat fluxes positive, and have positive effect on the heating of the oceans to the atmosphere in summer. Average sensible heat flux and its interannual variations of anomalies are smaller an order of magnitude than that of the latent heat flux. The changes of latent heat flux and sensible heat flux have remarkable consistency in Indo-Pacific warm pool in June, July and August. In summer, the latent heat flux over Indian Ocean warm pool is about20W/m2more than that over the western Pacific warm pool and sensible heat flux over the western Pacific warm pool is about2W/m2more than that over the Indian Ocean warm pool. Live data analysis and numerical simulation results show that there is obvious inter annual and decadal cycle changes of air-sea interaction in the warm pool area. The Interannual changes have the cycles of quasi2yearsand4-6years, and quasi-decadal changes have the cycles of quasill yearsand16years.
(2) By ESVD method, low-latitude plateau precipitation fields are analyzed with the left fields which are composed of latent heat flux and sensible heat flux. More and better results have been gotten. The three singular precipitation fields in June, July and August has the same symbols. It represents the precipitation of different stations is above normal or below normal in the same time. According to the Decomposition result of each month, after defining the positive and negative abnormal years, the difference of elements of the atmospheric circulation was been analyzed. Heat flux anomalies affecting the low-latitude plateau precipitation process has the same basic physical processes in June and July. In June and July, when latent heat flux in the middle and northern Indian Ocean warm pool is in positive anomaly and in the northeastern part of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is negative abnormal, The atmospheric becomes warmer and wetter in northern Indian Ocean and in western WPWP, to procure low pressure development to the northern part of the South China Sea and the northern part of the Bay of Bengal, strengthen the monsoon circulation, make the inter tropical convergence zone(ITCZ)enhanced and extended northward, and provides favorable conditions of moisture transport and power convergence, thus making the low latitude plateau precipitation increased in June and July. There are quite different physical processes between August and June, July. In August, when the Northeast IWP and northwest WPWP latent heat flux are in negative anomaly, the heat and water vapor transport reduce from marine to atmospheric in this region, leading to abnormal development of high in the northern South China Sea and the northern Bay of Bengal, and moisture transport in high-voltage peripheral air flow increased to low latitude plateau. Abnormal development of two high-pressure causes low latitude plateau located in the convergence zone between the two high, the ITCZ enhanced and extended northward, and provides favorable conditions for the power condition of precipitation in low latitude plateau, making low latitude plateau area precipitation increasing.
(3)ESVD analysis and the simulation results show that there is an obvious positive feedback process between the latent heat flux and atmospheric circulation in IPWP. Low pressure disturbance will lead to the ground wind speed increases. The increase of wind speed will make latent heat flux increases. The atmosphere will get more latent heating and water vapor transport from the ocean. The release of the latent heat will lead the development of low pressure and convection. Wind speed will further increase so to form a mutual promotion of positive feedback process. The reaction of SST and sensible heat flux responding to abnormal latent heat flux curbs this positive feedback process. There is certain regularity in the latent heat flux anomalies location and atmospheric circulation anomalies in Indo-Pacific warm pool region. Vertical velocity anomalies and precipitation anomalies are north to heat flux anomalies and surface wind speed anomaly centers3-4latitude degree. The Lower circulation anomalies center and surface pressure anomalies center are north to7-9latitude degree.
(4) Numerical model has simulated the basic characteristics of air-sea interaction over the Indo-Pacific warm pool area well. According to ESVD singular vectors of latent heat flux field, the simulation time coefficients were constructed. Difference synthesis analysis is executed. By ESVD analysis, the numerical model reproduced the abnormal morphology of the air-sea interaction. Mode analysis results show that the physical processes of air-sea interaction affecting the Low Latitude Plateau summer precipitation is correct.
(5) Integrated full-text analysis results, the physical model in June and July and August, of air-sea interaction anomaly is established. The June and July's model:when the latent heat flux in the north Indian Ocean warm pool has positive (negative) anomalies, the western Pacific warm pool west has positive (negative) anomalies and northeast has negative (positive) anomalies, heat and water vapor transport are more(less) in the oceans of the northern IWP and western WPWP, Leading to the development of low (high) from north South China Sea to north Bay of Bengal, strengthening (weakening) water vapor transport to low-latitude plateau region, strengthening (weakening) the power convergence, and finally causing more(less) precipitation in Low Latitude Plateau. The model of August:When the latent heat flux over middle and north IWP and west WPWP is negative(positive) abnormal, there are more (less) heating to atmosphere and water vapor transport, leading to the high pressure anomaly development (weakened) over north of South China Sea, north of the Bay of Bengal, causing high-voltage peripheral air flow to Low Latitude Plateau water vapor transported enhanced (weakened), easy (not easy) to forming two high convergence in the low-latitude plateau region, then resulting in more (less) precipitation in low latitude plateau.
(1)利用合成分析、相关分析与功率谱分析的方法,分析了印太暖池区域海气相互作用的基本特征。分析结果表明,印太暖池区夏季各月潜热通量和感热通量都为正值,海洋对大气有正的加热效应。感热通量平均值及其年际变化的距平值均比潜热通量的要小一个量级。印太暖池地区6、7、8月间潜热通量和感热通量的变化具有显著的一致性。从夏季的平均值上看,印度洋暖池的潜热通量较西太平洋暖池高约20W/m2；西太平洋暖池的感热通量比印度洋暖池高约2W/m2。实况资料分析和数值模拟的结果均表明,暖池区域海气相互作用存在比较明显的年际和年代际周期变化,年际变化周期以准2年和4—-6年周期为主,年代际变化周期以准11年和16年周期为主。
(2)利用ESVD方法,将潜热通量和感热通量并联作为左场与低纬高原降水场进行ESVD分析,ESVD的分析效果较好。6、7和8月各自分解的第一奇异降水场都为符号一致型,其代表了低纬高原地区降水的一致偏多或偏少。针对各月分解的结果,定义了正负异常年,并据此对大气环流各要素进行了差值合成分析。分析结果较好的解释了热通量异常对低纬高原夏季降水影响的物理过程。6、7月热通量异常影响低纬高原降水的物理过程基本相同。当6、7月潜热通量在印度洋暖池中北部出现正异常、在西太平洋暖池西部出现正异常东北部出现负异常时,印度洋北部和西太平洋暖池西部大气增温、增湿,促使南海北部和孟加拉湾北部低压发展,季风环流加强,赤道辐合带(ITCZ)加强北伸,为低纬高原地区降水的增加提供了有利的水汽输送条件和动力辐合条件,因而使低纬高原6、7月降水增多,反之亦然。8月份影响的物理过程情况与6、7月差异较大,当8月份印度洋暖池东北部和西太平洋暖池西北部潜热通量为负异常时,海洋对该区域大气的热量、水汽输送减少,导致南海北部和孟加拉湾北部高压异常发展,高压外围气流对低纬高原的水汽输送加强。同时两个高压的异常发展,使低纬高原处于两高之间的辐合区中,低纬高原经度位置ITCZ加强北伸,对低纬高原降水的增加提供了有利的动力条件,使低纬高原地区降水增多,反之亦然。
(3) ESVD分析和模拟结果发现,在印太暖池地区,潜热通量和大气环流的异常变化存在着明显的正反馈过程。低压扰动的发展将导致地面的风速增大,风速的增大将使得潜热通量增大,大气从海洋获得更多潜热加热与水汽输送,凝结潜热的释放又进一步导致低压和对流的发展,风速进一步加大,如此形成一个相互促进的正反馈过程。在潜热通量与大气相互作用的正反馈机制中,海温和感热通量的响应对这种正反馈过程起到一定的抑制作用。潜热输送和大气环流间存在的正反馈作用一定程度上解释了低纬高原区夏季降水异常的发生机制。印太暖池地区,潜热通量异常出现的位置与大气环流异常的位置间存在一定的规律性。相对于潜热通量异常和地面风速异常中心,垂直速度异常和降水异常的区域要偏北3—4个纬度,低层环流异常中心和地面气压异常中心要偏北7—9个纬度。
(4)数值模式比较好的模拟了印太暖池区域海气相互作用基本特征。根据ESVD分析潜热通量奇异向量场,在数值模拟的结果中,分6、7和8月分别构建了潜热通量奇异场的时间系数,并分别进行了差值合成分析。数值模式比较好的再现了ESVD分析出的海气相互作用异常形态,模式分析的结果证明了分析得到的印太暖池区域海气相互作用影响低纬高原夏季降水的物理过程的正确。
(5)综合全文的分析结果,建立了6、7月和8月海气相互作用异常影响低纬高原降水的物理模型。6、7月的模型主要为：当印度洋暖池中北部潜热通量正(负)异常、西太平洋暖池西部正(负)异常东北部负(正)异常时,海洋对印度洋北部和西太平洋暖池西部大气的热量、水汽输送多(少),导致南海北部至孟加拉湾北部一线对流层下部低压(高压)发展,ITCZ加强北仲(减弱南退),季风环流加强(减弱),引起对低纬高原地区的水汽输送加强(减弱),动力辐合作用加强(减弱),最终导致低纬高原降水偏多(少)。
8月的模型主要为：当印度洋暖池中北部潜热通量负(正)异常、西太平洋暖池西部负(正)异常时,海洋对印度洋北部和西太平洋暖池西部大气的热量、水汽输送少(多),导致南海北部、孟加拉湾北部高压异常发展(减弱),引起高压外围气流对低纬高原水汽输送增强(减弱),易(不易)在低纬高原地区形成两高辐合,低纬高原至中南半岛地区地区,ITCZ加强北伸(减弱南退),有正(负)的季风环流异常,季风环流的异常上升(下沉)气流位于低纬高原地区,增强(减弱)了对低纬高原地区的水汽输送以及低纬高原地区的垂直上升运动,最终导致低纬高原降水偏多(少)。
Low-Latitude Plateau located at southwest China, is the water source of many rivers. Flash floods, landslides, mudslides, drought and other natural disasters were occurred frequently. The precipitation's temporal and spatial distribution is extremely uneven. Since2009, a drought successive years took place which not be seen since meteorological records, and had a great impact on the production and life of the people. It has a very important practical significance for disaster reduction and prevention, and strengthening the use of water resources to improve the precipitation forecast level in Latitude Plateau. In this paper, on the basis of previous studies, the ERA-interim reanalysis data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, HadIsst sea temperature data set of the Met Office Hadley Centre, low-latitude plateau precipitation data, forecast results have been used by integrated application analysis, power spectrum analysis, extended singular value decomposition(ESVD) and other statistical diagnostic methods to study the basic features of the Indian Ocean warm pool, the western Pacific warm pool and Low-Latitude plateau precipitation, their interannual variability, their relationship, the atmosphere-ocean interaction and it's processes and physical mechanisms. The numerical model COSMOS1.2.1was used for further analysis and verification.
(1) By using synthetic analysis, correlation analysis and power spectral analysis method, the basic characteristics of the air-sea interaction in the Indo-Pacific warm pool have been analyzed. The analyses results show that the Indo-Pacific warm pool latent heat flux and sensible heat fluxes positive, and have positive effect on the heating of the oceans to the atmosphere in summer. Average sensible heat flux and its interannual variations of anomalies are smaller an order of magnitude than that of the latent heat flux. The changes of latent heat flux and sensible heat flux have remarkable consistency in Indo-Pacific warm pool in June, July and August. In summer, the latent heat flux over Indian Ocean warm pool is about20W/m2more than that over the western Pacific warm pool and sensible heat flux over the western Pacific warm pool is about2W/m2more than that over the Indian Ocean warm pool. Live data analysis and numerical simulation results show that there is obvious inter annual and decadal cycle changes of air-sea interaction in the warm pool area. The Interannual changes have the cycles of quasi2yearsand4-6years, and quasi-decadal changes have the cycles of quasill yearsand16years.
(2) By ESVD method, low-latitude plateau precipitation fields are analyzed with the left fields which are composed of latent heat flux and sensible heat flux. More and better results have been gotten. The three singular precipitation fields in June, July and August has the same symbols. It represents the precipitation of different stations is above normal or below normal in the same time. According to the Decomposition result of each month, after defining the positive and negative abnormal years, the difference of elements of the atmospheric circulation was been analyzed. Heat flux anomalies affecting the low-latitude plateau precipitation process has the same basic physical processes in June and July. In June and July, when latent heat flux in the middle and northern Indian Ocean warm pool is in positive anomaly and in the northeastern part of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is negative abnormal, The atmospheric becomes warmer and wetter in northern Indian Ocean and in western WPWP, to procure low pressure development to the northern part of the South China Sea and the northern part of the Bay of Bengal, strengthen the monsoon circulation, make the inter tropical convergence zone(ITCZ)enhanced and extended northward, and provides favorable conditions of moisture transport and power convergence, thus making the low latitude plateau precipitation increased in June and July. There are quite different physical processes between August and June, July. In August, when the Northeast IWP and northwest WPWP latent heat flux are in negative anomaly, the heat and water vapor transport reduce from marine to atmospheric in this region, leading to abnormal development of high in the northern South China Sea and the northern Bay of Bengal, and moisture transport in high-voltage peripheral air flow increased to low latitude plateau. Abnormal development of two high-pressure causes low latitude plateau located in the convergence zone between the two high, the ITCZ enhanced and extended northward, and provides favorable conditions for the power condition of precipitation in low latitude plateau, making low latitude plateau area precipitation increasing.
(3)ESVD analysis and the simulation results show that there is an obvious positive feedback process between the latent heat flux and atmospheric circulation in IPWP. Low pressure disturbance will lead to the ground wind speed increases. The increase of wind speed will make latent heat flux increases. The atmosphere will get more latent heating and water vapor transport from the ocean. The release of the latent heat will lead the development of low pressure and convection. Wind speed will further increase so to form a mutual promotion of positive feedback process. The reaction of SST and sensible heat flux responding to abnormal latent heat flux curbs this positive feedback process. There is certain regularity in the latent heat flux anomalies location and atmospheric circulation anomalies in Indo-Pacific warm pool region. Vertical velocity anomalies and precipitation anomalies are north to heat flux anomalies and surface wind speed anomaly centers3-4latitude degree. The Lower circulation anomalies center and surface pressure anomalies center are north to7-9latitude degree.
(4) Numerical model has simulated the basic characteristics of air-sea interaction over the Indo-Pacific warm pool area well. According to ESVD singular vectors of latent heat flux field, the simulation time coefficients were constructed. Difference synthesis analysis is executed. By ESVD analysis, the numerical model reproduced the abnormal morphology of the air-sea interaction. Mode analysis results show that the physical processes of air-sea interaction affecting the Low Latitude Plateau summer precipitation is correct.
(5) Integrated full-text analysis results, the physical model in June and July and August, of air-sea interaction anomaly is established. The June and July's model:when the latent heat flux in the north Indian Ocean warm pool has positive (negative) anomalies, the western Pacific warm pool west has positive (negative) anomalies and northeast has negative (positive) anomalies, heat and water vapor transport are more(less) in the oceans of the northern IWP and western WPWP, Leading to the development of low (high) from north South China Sea to north Bay of Bengal, strengthening (weakening) water vapor transport to low-latitude plateau region, strengthening (weakening) the power convergence, and finally causing more(less) precipitation in Low Latitude Plateau. The model of August:When the latent heat flux over middle and north IWP and west WPWP is negative(positive) abnormal, there are more (less) heating to atmosphere and water vapor transport, leading to the high pressure anomaly development (weakened) over north of South China Sea, north of the Bay of Bengal, causing high-voltage peripheral air flow to Low Latitude Plateau water vapor transported enhanced (weakened), easy (not easy) to forming two high convergence in the low-latitude plateau region, then resulting in more (less) precipitation in low latitude plateau.
引文
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