区域综合运输通道客运系统结构分析
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摘要
区域经济一体化,城市化进程的加快,城市群都市圈的形成,城乡一体化的推进,促进了区域一体化的形成。为了满足区域一体化的要求首先必须实现区域交通一体化,即区域交通必须打破区域内行政界限、部门界限、地域界限,把区域内所有的交通资源：交通工具、设施、信息进行统一规划、统一管理、统一组织、统一调配,构建区域综合交通运输体系,充分发挥交通运输在经济发展中的能动作用。在区域综合交通运输体系中,综合运输通道是建设的关键,它不但是整个综合运输体系效益得以发挥的前提,还影响着投资效率的高低。论文基于此背景研究区域综合交通运输体系中综合运输通道客运系统出行行为、结构配置、结构的合理性和协调性等相关问题。
1.在对运输通道的概念、构成要素、特征分析和区域经济的概念、区域经济一体化和区域交通一体化进行分析的基础上,从空间范围、服务对象和运输方式三个角度对区域综合运输通道客运系统进行了界定。指出区域综合运输通道客运系统是服务城市群和都市圈范围内,在某一狭长地带行成的具有多用交通方式共同协作,为区域提供旅客运输服务的交通运输走廊。
2.对区域综合运输通道的出行全过程进行了分析,将区域内出行过程分为出发地接续、出发地换乘、区域交通出行、目的地换乘和目的接续五个阶段,五个阶段可合并为三个过程即接续、换乘和区域交通出行,指出在进行区域出行方式选择时,接续和换乘是影响其选择与否的重要因素。针对区域交通方式选择的特点,引入了多项logit模型、nested logit模型和PCL模型,构建了6个区域综合运输通道内出行行为的分析模型,并对每个模型的优劣点进行了分析。指出多项logit模型的特点是模型结构简单、实用性强,缺点为不能解决模型的独立项不相关性；nested logit模型的优点是能解决独立项不相关性,但缺点是模型结构复杂,实用性差；PCL模型结构适中,能解决独立项不相关性,实用性较强。
3.为了对区域综合运输通道内的客运市场进行细分,论文引入了因子分析法对影响市场细分的变量进行降维处理,降低因子数量和因子之间的相关性。在此基础上引入了对应分析理论对影响因子进行对应分析,得到对应分析图,通过对应分析图便能清晰了解客运市场与影响因子之间的分布情况。为了定量的测定区域综合运输通道内出行方式之间的替代性,以运输产品的快速性、经济性、方便性、安全性、舒适性为基础,在测得运输产品特性各项数据之后,引入vague集和区间分析原理,按照成本型产品特性和效益型产品特性,分别将出行方式间单因素条件下的替代性转化为vague值。经过多因素综合处理后,将vague值转化为替代度。替代度由三部分组成,分别表示出行方式间可替代程度、不能替代程度和不能确定程度。
4.区域综合运输通道出行结构的配置问题,其本质是一个决策问题,决策的指标包括经济效益、财务效益、可持续发展和系统最优。为了便于专家对方案进行评价和更加真实地表达专家的评价信息,在专家采用语言变量对定性指标进行评价的基础上,采用三角模糊数将专家给出的定性评价指标值和各指标权重值进行量化和规范化,并在集结评价值和权重的基础上得到基于三角模糊数的决策矩阵和权重向量。在此基础上给出了两类排序方法,一是通过定义2个三角模糊数的距离,将逼进理想解的排序方法(TOPSIS法)引入到决策中,并在建立正理想解和负理想解后,通过计算各个备选方案到正理想解和负理想解的距离确定各方案的综合评价指数,通过综合评价指数对备选方案进行排序。二是应用三角模糊数的减法运算定义任意两个三角模糊数的优越度,在方案两两对比求得优越度后建立方案的互补判断矩阵,采用最小平方法求得方案排序向量,根据排序向量元素的大小进行方案排序。
5.为了对系统加以诊断,了解系统实际的运行状态和对决策的效果进行评定。论文定义了运输产品的多样性、供需平衡系数和OD平衡系数评价指标,从通道内部出行结构出发对通道结构的合理性进行评价。同时定义了综合供给能力系数,可持续发展程度和综合运输效率三个指标从通道与社会经济适应性角度对通道结构进行评价,采用隶属度制定评价标准,在此基础上引入模糊识别对通道出行结构所处的状态进行评价。
6.针对区域综合运输通道交通供给和需求量大,出行方式多,各出行方式竞争激烈的特点。为了避免各出行方式之间存在恶性竞争,扰乱运输市场的正常秩序,建立了区域综合运输通道协同的多目标非线性规划数学模型。模型建立在出行者对交通方式的选择遵守效用极大化原理的基础上,系统目标为各出行方式的供给量与需量相适应。采用模糊折中算法将多目标转化为单目标,同时采用广义牛顿法对非线性规划问题进行求解,为了避免求得的解为局部最优解,提出了随机从不同的初始点进行寻优,尔后对各个结果进行比较,从中选出较优者作为全局最优解。该方法极大的提高了所求解为全局最优解的可靠性。
综上所述,区域综合运输通道客运系统结构分析,包括区域综合运输通道内出行行为分析,通道内出行结构的配置和通道内出行结构合理性的评价和后期的出行结构协调等问题,论文对此做了深入的研究,为区域客运系统结构的优化、规划和调整提供理论基础。
Regional economic integration, the acceleration of urbanization process, the formation of urban agglomeration and metropolitan region and the boosting of urban and rural integration promote the formation of regional integration.To satisfy the demand of regional integration, firstly, integration of regional transportation must be realized. That is to say, regional transportation must break administrative boundaries, department boundaries and space boundaries. It should unify the programming, management, organisation and dispatching of the whole transportation resourses in the region to build regional comprehensive transportation system and make transportation play a fully dynamic role in the development of economy. Transportation resourses in the region include trasportation vehicles, facilities and related information. In the system of regional comprehensive transportation system, comprehensive transportation corridors are the key of its construction. It is not only the precondition of the realization of the system's benefits, but also affects the efficiency of investment. Based on this background, this paper does reasearch on travel behavior anlysis, structure configuration, rationality and coordination of the structure and some other related questions within passenger system of the comprehensive transportation corridor.
1. Based on the analysis of the concept and elements of transportation corridor, the characteristics and analysis of the concept of regional economy, regional economic integration and regional transportation integration, this paper identifies the passenger system of regional comprehensive transportation corridor from the angle of spatial scope, service objects and transportation modes. This paper points out that the passenger system of regional comprehensive transportation corridor is corridor that serves within the scopes of urban agglomeration and metropolitan region, which is composed by different kinds of transportation modes within a narrow area.
2. In this paper, the author analyzed the whole travel process of regional comprehensive transportation corridors, and divided the process into five stages, origin access, origin transferation, regional travel, destination transferration and destination access, which can be combined into thress process of acess, transferation and regional travel. The process of acess and transferation are important factors to the choice trip modes in regional travel process. In accordance with the characteristic of reginal trip modes, multi-nomial Logit(MNL), nested Logit(NL) and PCL mode are introduced in this paper to establish six models that are used to analyze the trip behavior of reginal comprehensive transportation corridor. On this basis, the advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed. The advantages of MNL is simple structure and broad adaptability, the disadvantage is it cann't avoid the independence of irrelevant alternative(IIA); The advantages of NL is it can avoid the independence of irrelevant alternative(IIA), the disadvantage is complex structure and; The PCL model takes on a better practicability and can solve the problem of IIA.
3. In order to segment passenger market of regional comprehensive transportation corridor, Factor analysis is introduced to reduce the dimensions of the variables that affect market segmentation and reduce the number of factors and correlation of different factors. On this basis, the theory of correspondence analysis is introduced to analyze the correspondence relations of different impact factors. The graph of correspondence analysis is obtained, through which distribution of different impact factors of passenger market is clearly revealed. In order to calculate the substitutability of regional integrated transport corridor between passenger-transport modes, transport-product characteristics of rapidity, economy, convenience, safety, comfort are selected to distinguish passenger-transport products. The principle of vague sets and interval analysis is introduced into transforming the substitutability between passenger transport modes to vague value according to cost type and benefit type product characteristics, after the data of different passenger-product characteristics are obtained. Vague value is transformed to substitute degree by multi-factor transformation. Substitute degree consists of three parts that is the degree of substitutability, degree of non-substitutability and degree of uncertainty.
4. The essential of the trip structure configuration of regional integrated transportation corridor is a decision problem, the indexes of which include economic benefit, financial benefit, sustainable development and system optimum. In order to express experts' evaluation information well and truly, triangular fuzzy number is introduced into MADM in this research. Entries in decision matrix and weights of all attributes are represented by triangular fuzzy number. Decision matrix and weight vector of criterions are formed on triangular fuzzy number after evaluation values and weight of criterions are pooled and integrated under condition of group decision-making. And then, two methods are used to rank the alternatives. one is introducing TOPSIS into this paper after a vertex method is proposed to calculate the distance between two triangular fuzzy numbers, According to the concept of the TOPSIS, a closeness coefficient is defined to determine the ranking order of all alternatives by calculating the distances to both the fuzzy positive-ideal solution (FPIS) and fuzzy negative-ideal solution (FNIS) simultaneously. Finally, the order of alternatives is achieved in the light of closeness coefficient. The other is, after the final evaluation value of each alterative is achieved by means of simple additive weighting method (SAW), the degree of dominance between alternatives is defined by the way of difference of two triangular fuzzy numbers. The complementary judgment matrix is built up on degree of dominance between alternatives. The ordering vector of alternatives is figured out though using the least-square method. The order of alternatives is gained according to the value of element of the order vector.
5. To diagnose the passenger system of regional comprehensive transoportion corridor, understand its realistic running state and to assess the effect of decision-making, this paper defined the diversity of transportation products, banlance coefficient of supply and demand and OD balance coefficient to evaluate rationality of the trip structure from the angle of internal trip structure of regional comprehensive transoportion corridor. Meanwhile, three indexes, comprehensive supply capacity coefficient, the level of sustainable development and comprehensive transportation efficiency are built to evaluate the trip structure from the angle of adaptability between corridor and social economy. Fuzzy recognition is introduced to evaluation trip structure of regional comprehensive transoportion corridor after evaluation criterion made by membership degree.
6. Regional comprehensive corridor takes on the characteristics of heavy transport demand and supply and many travel modes; meanwhile, competition is severe among different travel modes. In order to avoid vicious competition among different travel modes so that transportation market is disturbed, multi-objective and nonlinear programming model is built up, which is based on the maximization of unity of traveler. The objective of model is mutual adaptation of transport demand volume and supply volume. Multi-objective is transferred into single objective by multi-objective fuzzy programming method. At the same time Newton arithmetic is employed to solve nonlinear problem. For the sake of avoiding obtaining local optimal solution, different and stochastic original solutions are adopted to find the local optimal solution, the optimal of which is took as the global optimal solution. The solution is improved to a large extent by this way.
From what has been discussed above, the analysis of passenger system of regional comprehensive transportation corridor includes the analysis of trip behavior, the configuration of trip structure, the evaluation of trip structure and the coordination of trip structure in later stage. This paper has done a thorough research on these problems and offered theoretical foundations for optimization, programming and adjustment of regional comprehensive transportation corridor.
1.在对运输通道的概念、构成要素、特征分析和区域经济的概念、区域经济一体化和区域交通一体化进行分析的基础上,从空间范围、服务对象和运输方式三个角度对区域综合运输通道客运系统进行了界定。指出区域综合运输通道客运系统是服务城市群和都市圈范围内,在某一狭长地带行成的具有多用交通方式共同协作,为区域提供旅客运输服务的交通运输走廊。
2.对区域综合运输通道的出行全过程进行了分析,将区域内出行过程分为出发地接续、出发地换乘、区域交通出行、目的地换乘和目的接续五个阶段,五个阶段可合并为三个过程即接续、换乘和区域交通出行,指出在进行区域出行方式选择时,接续和换乘是影响其选择与否的重要因素。针对区域交通方式选择的特点,引入了多项logit模型、nested logit模型和PCL模型,构建了6个区域综合运输通道内出行行为的分析模型,并对每个模型的优劣点进行了分析。指出多项logit模型的特点是模型结构简单、实用性强,缺点为不能解决模型的独立项不相关性；nested logit模型的优点是能解决独立项不相关性,但缺点是模型结构复杂,实用性差；PCL模型结构适中,能解决独立项不相关性,实用性较强。
3.为了对区域综合运输通道内的客运市场进行细分,论文引入了因子分析法对影响市场细分的变量进行降维处理,降低因子数量和因子之间的相关性。在此基础上引入了对应分析理论对影响因子进行对应分析,得到对应分析图,通过对应分析图便能清晰了解客运市场与影响因子之间的分布情况。为了定量的测定区域综合运输通道内出行方式之间的替代性,以运输产品的快速性、经济性、方便性、安全性、舒适性为基础,在测得运输产品特性各项数据之后,引入vague集和区间分析原理,按照成本型产品特性和效益型产品特性,分别将出行方式间单因素条件下的替代性转化为vague值。经过多因素综合处理后,将vague值转化为替代度。替代度由三部分组成,分别表示出行方式间可替代程度、不能替代程度和不能确定程度。
4.区域综合运输通道出行结构的配置问题,其本质是一个决策问题,决策的指标包括经济效益、财务效益、可持续发展和系统最优。为了便于专家对方案进行评价和更加真实地表达专家的评价信息,在专家采用语言变量对定性指标进行评价的基础上,采用三角模糊数将专家给出的定性评价指标值和各指标权重值进行量化和规范化,并在集结评价值和权重的基础上得到基于三角模糊数的决策矩阵和权重向量。在此基础上给出了两类排序方法,一是通过定义2个三角模糊数的距离,将逼进理想解的排序方法(TOPSIS法)引入到决策中,并在建立正理想解和负理想解后,通过计算各个备选方案到正理想解和负理想解的距离确定各方案的综合评价指数,通过综合评价指数对备选方案进行排序。二是应用三角模糊数的减法运算定义任意两个三角模糊数的优越度,在方案两两对比求得优越度后建立方案的互补判断矩阵,采用最小平方法求得方案排序向量,根据排序向量元素的大小进行方案排序。
5.为了对系统加以诊断,了解系统实际的运行状态和对决策的效果进行评定。论文定义了运输产品的多样性、供需平衡系数和OD平衡系数评价指标,从通道内部出行结构出发对通道结构的合理性进行评价。同时定义了综合供给能力系数,可持续发展程度和综合运输效率三个指标从通道与社会经济适应性角度对通道结构进行评价,采用隶属度制定评价标准,在此基础上引入模糊识别对通道出行结构所处的状态进行评价。
6.针对区域综合运输通道交通供给和需求量大,出行方式多,各出行方式竞争激烈的特点。为了避免各出行方式之间存在恶性竞争,扰乱运输市场的正常秩序,建立了区域综合运输通道协同的多目标非线性规划数学模型。模型建立在出行者对交通方式的选择遵守效用极大化原理的基础上,系统目标为各出行方式的供给量与需量相适应。采用模糊折中算法将多目标转化为单目标,同时采用广义牛顿法对非线性规划问题进行求解,为了避免求得的解为局部最优解,提出了随机从不同的初始点进行寻优,尔后对各个结果进行比较,从中选出较优者作为全局最优解。该方法极大的提高了所求解为全局最优解的可靠性。
综上所述,区域综合运输通道客运系统结构分析,包括区域综合运输通道内出行行为分析,通道内出行结构的配置和通道内出行结构合理性的评价和后期的出行结构协调等问题,论文对此做了深入的研究,为区域客运系统结构的优化、规划和调整提供理论基础。
Regional economic integration, the acceleration of urbanization process, the formation of urban agglomeration and metropolitan region and the boosting of urban and rural integration promote the formation of regional integration.To satisfy the demand of regional integration, firstly, integration of regional transportation must be realized. That is to say, regional transportation must break administrative boundaries, department boundaries and space boundaries. It should unify the programming, management, organisation and dispatching of the whole transportation resourses in the region to build regional comprehensive transportation system and make transportation play a fully dynamic role in the development of economy. Transportation resourses in the region include trasportation vehicles, facilities and related information. In the system of regional comprehensive transportation system, comprehensive transportation corridors are the key of its construction. It is not only the precondition of the realization of the system's benefits, but also affects the efficiency of investment. Based on this background, this paper does reasearch on travel behavior anlysis, structure configuration, rationality and coordination of the structure and some other related questions within passenger system of the comprehensive transportation corridor.
1. Based on the analysis of the concept and elements of transportation corridor, the characteristics and analysis of the concept of regional economy, regional economic integration and regional transportation integration, this paper identifies the passenger system of regional comprehensive transportation corridor from the angle of spatial scope, service objects and transportation modes. This paper points out that the passenger system of regional comprehensive transportation corridor is corridor that serves within the scopes of urban agglomeration and metropolitan region, which is composed by different kinds of transportation modes within a narrow area.
2. In this paper, the author analyzed the whole travel process of regional comprehensive transportation corridors, and divided the process into five stages, origin access, origin transferation, regional travel, destination transferration and destination access, which can be combined into thress process of acess, transferation and regional travel. The process of acess and transferation are important factors to the choice trip modes in regional travel process. In accordance with the characteristic of reginal trip modes, multi-nomial Logit(MNL), nested Logit(NL) and PCL mode are introduced in this paper to establish six models that are used to analyze the trip behavior of reginal comprehensive transportation corridor. On this basis, the advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed. The advantages of MNL is simple structure and broad adaptability, the disadvantage is it cann't avoid the independence of irrelevant alternative(IIA); The advantages of NL is it can avoid the independence of irrelevant alternative(IIA), the disadvantage is complex structure and; The PCL model takes on a better practicability and can solve the problem of IIA.
3. In order to segment passenger market of regional comprehensive transportation corridor, Factor analysis is introduced to reduce the dimensions of the variables that affect market segmentation and reduce the number of factors and correlation of different factors. On this basis, the theory of correspondence analysis is introduced to analyze the correspondence relations of different impact factors. The graph of correspondence analysis is obtained, through which distribution of different impact factors of passenger market is clearly revealed. In order to calculate the substitutability of regional integrated transport corridor between passenger-transport modes, transport-product characteristics of rapidity, economy, convenience, safety, comfort are selected to distinguish passenger-transport products. The principle of vague sets and interval analysis is introduced into transforming the substitutability between passenger transport modes to vague value according to cost type and benefit type product characteristics, after the data of different passenger-product characteristics are obtained. Vague value is transformed to substitute degree by multi-factor transformation. Substitute degree consists of three parts that is the degree of substitutability, degree of non-substitutability and degree of uncertainty.
4. The essential of the trip structure configuration of regional integrated transportation corridor is a decision problem, the indexes of which include economic benefit, financial benefit, sustainable development and system optimum. In order to express experts' evaluation information well and truly, triangular fuzzy number is introduced into MADM in this research. Entries in decision matrix and weights of all attributes are represented by triangular fuzzy number. Decision matrix and weight vector of criterions are formed on triangular fuzzy number after evaluation values and weight of criterions are pooled and integrated under condition of group decision-making. And then, two methods are used to rank the alternatives. one is introducing TOPSIS into this paper after a vertex method is proposed to calculate the distance between two triangular fuzzy numbers, According to the concept of the TOPSIS, a closeness coefficient is defined to determine the ranking order of all alternatives by calculating the distances to both the fuzzy positive-ideal solution (FPIS) and fuzzy negative-ideal solution (FNIS) simultaneously. Finally, the order of alternatives is achieved in the light of closeness coefficient. The other is, after the final evaluation value of each alterative is achieved by means of simple additive weighting method (SAW), the degree of dominance between alternatives is defined by the way of difference of two triangular fuzzy numbers. The complementary judgment matrix is built up on degree of dominance between alternatives. The ordering vector of alternatives is figured out though using the least-square method. The order of alternatives is gained according to the value of element of the order vector.
5. To diagnose the passenger system of regional comprehensive transoportion corridor, understand its realistic running state and to assess the effect of decision-making, this paper defined the diversity of transportation products, banlance coefficient of supply and demand and OD balance coefficient to evaluate rationality of the trip structure from the angle of internal trip structure of regional comprehensive transoportion corridor. Meanwhile, three indexes, comprehensive supply capacity coefficient, the level of sustainable development and comprehensive transportation efficiency are built to evaluate the trip structure from the angle of adaptability between corridor and social economy. Fuzzy recognition is introduced to evaluation trip structure of regional comprehensive transoportion corridor after evaluation criterion made by membership degree.
6. Regional comprehensive corridor takes on the characteristics of heavy transport demand and supply and many travel modes; meanwhile, competition is severe among different travel modes. In order to avoid vicious competition among different travel modes so that transportation market is disturbed, multi-objective and nonlinear programming model is built up, which is based on the maximization of unity of traveler. The objective of model is mutual adaptation of transport demand volume and supply volume. Multi-objective is transferred into single objective by multi-objective fuzzy programming method. At the same time Newton arithmetic is employed to solve nonlinear problem. For the sake of avoiding obtaining local optimal solution, different and stochastic original solutions are adopted to find the local optimal solution, the optimal of which is took as the global optimal solution. The solution is improved to a large extent by this way.
From what has been discussed above, the analysis of passenger system of regional comprehensive transportation corridor includes the analysis of trip behavior, the configuration of trip structure, the evaluation of trip structure and the coordination of trip structure in later stage. This paper has done a thorough research on these problems and offered theoretical foundations for optimization, programming and adjustment of regional comprehensive transportation corridor.
引文
[1]张铱莹.客运专线对区际运输通道的影响研究[D].西南交通大学：工学硕士论文,2005.
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