突发群体事件演化及其应对预案构建研究
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摘要
突发群体事件(Mass Emergency)是当前社会转型阶段影响社会稳定和公共安全的一个重要因素,其应对效力是考验政府执政能力的关键指标。正确认识和处理突发性群体性事件,对于确保社会平稳运行、减少社会损失、维护社会稳定、构建和谐社会,具有重大的现实意义。现有的突发群体事件应对预案体系在处置突发群体事件中发挥了一定积极作用,但是也暴露出在预案措施针对性、操作性方面的欠缺,需要结合突发群体事件演化特点对应对预案进行体系构建。
本文把突发群体事件看作一个复杂自组织系统,运用自组织理论和演化博弈理论来对突发群体事件演化过程的实质进行动态研究。在突发群体事件演化分析地基础上运用案例推理理论和情景分析方法提出突发群体事件应对预案构建体系。考虑到突发群体事件具有事先难以预测、甚至无法预测,但又需要紧急处理的特点;考虑到突发群体事件关系错综复杂,需要剖析其演化实质的需求;考虑到突发群体事件应对预案对突发群体事件应急管理具有提前准备和支持作用,本文基于管理学、社会学、计算机科学、复杂系统科学等领域的基础理论,对突发群体事件演化和应对预案体系构建进行了详细的探讨。论文内容主要包括:
(1)支撑突发群体事件演化和应对预案构建研究的基础理论分析。对突发群体事件进行了系统分析,分析了自组织理论和演化博弈方法用于支撑突发群体事件演化规律及模型的基础理论,提出了突发群体事件演化博弈的基准模型。分析了情景分析方法和案例推理方法用于支撑应对预案构建研究的基础理论及两种方法的结合模式。
(2)突发群体事件演化模型研究。在突发群体事件典型案例剖析的基础上,分析了突发群体事件演化的自组织静态结构和演化博弈动态流程,在此基础上提出了突发群体事件综合演化模型;分析了影响突发群体事件演化的主要指标,提出了突发群体事件演化的影响指标体系。此部分研究为突发群体事件的应急管理和应对预案构建研究提供了基础支撑。
(3)突发群体事件应对的“案例-情景-预案”构建体系结构。在突发群体事件系统演化模型基础上,提出了突发群体事件应急管理的规律和指导思想,提出了一种突发群体事件应急管理体系框架,并阐明了应对预案在其中的关系和地位;提出了基于案例推理的应对的“案例-情景-预案”构建体系框架:构建了突发群体事件应对预案内容模型和基于案例推理的应对预案系统实现模型,并研究和分析了构成模型的应对预案情景特征提取模块等五个子模块的功能和相互关系。
(4)突发群体事件应对的“案例-情景-预案”构建途径。在应对的“案例-情景-预案”构建体系结构基础上,运用情景分析方法、案例推理方法及相关计算机系统索引、检索、匹配方法,研究了突发群体事件应对预案体系中五个子模块的实现思路和途径,其中提出了应对预案系统案例描述结构框架及各子结构描述方法,设计了应对预案系统索引模块、案例检索模块、用户接口模块的实现方法,并基于情景分析法,给出应对预案系统案例生成流程框架。
(5)突发群体事件应对方案实时生成和验证。详细阐述了突发群体事件应对方案生成过程,并以瓮安事件及S市新发生突发群体事件为案例,对本文提出的突发群体事件应对预案系统的实施进行验证。
运用自组织理论和演化博弈理论对突发群体事件进行演化分析,在此基础上运用案例推理理论和情景分析方法提出突发群体事件应对预案构建体系,对于剖析突发群体事件演化实质,构建具有针对性、操作性的应对预案体系,对地方政府有效应对突发群体事件具有重要的理论和现实意义,使事件的演化过程能得以控制,保证社会的稳定和公共的安全。
Mass Emergency is one important factor that influences the social stability and social security in the present period of social transition. Mass Emergency is also a crucial point that testing the executive ability of government. Correctly realizing and dealing with outburst Mass Emergency, it is of great real significance to ensure social stability, reduce social lost, maintain social stability and build harmonious society. The prior Mass Emergency preplan system has a certain positive function in dealing with the outburst Mass Emergency, but the shortcomings in pertinence and operation of the preplan are also exposed. Therefore, the preplan should be systematically constructed according to the evolutionary features of Mass Emergency.
The paper serves Mass Emergency as a complex self-organizing system, and it does the dynamic research on the essence of Mass Emergency evolutionary process by applying the self-organizing theory and evolutionary game theory. Based on the analysis of Mass Emergency evolution, the Mass Emergency preplan constructure system is proposed by using the case-based reasoning theory and the scenario analysis method. Considering that Mess Emergency is characterized in difficult forecasting or even incapable of forecasting but requiring emergency disposal, considering that the relation of Mass Emergency is complex and needs to take apart the evolutionary essence, considering that the Mass Emergency preplan has the advanced preparing and supporting function to the Mass Emergency management, the paper, based on the basic theory in the field of management, social science, computer science and science of complexity, makes a detailed discussion on the evolutionary process and emergency preplan system of Mass Emergency. The main content of the paper comprises:
(1) The basic theory analysis supporting the evolution of Mass Emergency and the constructing research of the emergency preplan. The Mass Emergency is systematically analyzed. The self-organizing theory and evolutionary game method are analyzed for supporting the basic theory of Mass Emergency evolutionary rules and of models. A reference model of the Mass Emergency evolutionary game is proposed. The scenario analysis method and case-based reasoning method for supporting the basic theory of emergency preplan constructing research are analyzed, and the combined mode of the two methods is also analyzed.
(2) The research on the Mass Emergency evolutionary model. Based on the typical case analysis of the Mass Emergency, the self-organizing static structure and evolutionary game dynamic flow of Mass Emergency evolution are analyzed, based on which, the integrated evolutionary model of Mass Emergency is proposed. In addition, the main index influenced the Mass Emergency evolution is analyzed, and the influenced index system of Mass Emergency evolution is put forward. The research of this portion provides a basic support for the research of the emergency management and preplan construction of Mass Emergency.
(3) The structure of preplan“case-scenario-preplan”system of Mass Emergency. Based on the evolutionary model of Mass Emergency system, the rule and directing ideology of the emergency management of Mass Emergency are proposed, and an emergency management system frame of Mass Emergency is proposed. The relation and position of the emergency preplan in the frame are illustrated. The preplan“case-scenario-preplan”system frame based on the case-based reasoning is put forward, and the preplan content model and case-based reasoning preplan actualizing model of Mass Emergency are built. The pick-up module of preplan scenario feature formed the model is studied and analyzed, and the function and mutual relation among the five branch modules are also studied and analyzed.
(4) Constructing approach of preplan“case-scenario-preplan”of Mass Emergency. Based on the structure of preplan“case-scenario-preplan”system of Mass Emergency, the achieving thought and approach of the five branch modules in the Mass Emergency preplan system are studied by using scenario analysis, case-based reasoning method and relative indexing, searching and matching methods in computer system. The descriptive frame of preplan system case and the branch structural descriptive methods are put forward. The actualizing method of preplan system index module, case searching module and user interface module is designed. In addition, based on the scenario analysis, the generating flow frame of preplan system case is presented.
(5) Realtime generation and validation of Mass Emergency preplan. The generating process of Mass Emergency preplan is illustrated in full detail. Taking Weng’an Mass Incident and the Mass Emergency currently occurred in S city as cases, the implement of Mass Emergency preplan system can be validated.
The Mass Emergency can be analyzed in evolution by using self-organizing theory and evolutionary game theory, based on which, the Mass Evolution preplan system can be put forward by using case-based reasoning theory and scenario analysis theory. For analyzing the evolutionary essence of Mass Emergency and constructing the preplan system with pertinence and operation, it has a great theoretical and real significance for local government to deal with Mass Emergence effectively, thereby the evolutionary process of the emergency can be controlled, and the social stability and security can be ensured.
本文把突发群体事件看作一个复杂自组织系统,运用自组织理论和演化博弈理论来对突发群体事件演化过程的实质进行动态研究。在突发群体事件演化分析地基础上运用案例推理理论和情景分析方法提出突发群体事件应对预案构建体系。考虑到突发群体事件具有事先难以预测、甚至无法预测,但又需要紧急处理的特点;考虑到突发群体事件关系错综复杂,需要剖析其演化实质的需求;考虑到突发群体事件应对预案对突发群体事件应急管理具有提前准备和支持作用,本文基于管理学、社会学、计算机科学、复杂系统科学等领域的基础理论,对突发群体事件演化和应对预案体系构建进行了详细的探讨。论文内容主要包括:
(1)支撑突发群体事件演化和应对预案构建研究的基础理论分析。对突发群体事件进行了系统分析,分析了自组织理论和演化博弈方法用于支撑突发群体事件演化规律及模型的基础理论,提出了突发群体事件演化博弈的基准模型。分析了情景分析方法和案例推理方法用于支撑应对预案构建研究的基础理论及两种方法的结合模式。
(2)突发群体事件演化模型研究。在突发群体事件典型案例剖析的基础上,分析了突发群体事件演化的自组织静态结构和演化博弈动态流程,在此基础上提出了突发群体事件综合演化模型;分析了影响突发群体事件演化的主要指标,提出了突发群体事件演化的影响指标体系。此部分研究为突发群体事件的应急管理和应对预案构建研究提供了基础支撑。
(3)突发群体事件应对的“案例-情景-预案”构建体系结构。在突发群体事件系统演化模型基础上,提出了突发群体事件应急管理的规律和指导思想,提出了一种突发群体事件应急管理体系框架,并阐明了应对预案在其中的关系和地位;提出了基于案例推理的应对的“案例-情景-预案”构建体系框架:构建了突发群体事件应对预案内容模型和基于案例推理的应对预案系统实现模型,并研究和分析了构成模型的应对预案情景特征提取模块等五个子模块的功能和相互关系。
(4)突发群体事件应对的“案例-情景-预案”构建途径。在应对的“案例-情景-预案”构建体系结构基础上,运用情景分析方法、案例推理方法及相关计算机系统索引、检索、匹配方法,研究了突发群体事件应对预案体系中五个子模块的实现思路和途径,其中提出了应对预案系统案例描述结构框架及各子结构描述方法,设计了应对预案系统索引模块、案例检索模块、用户接口模块的实现方法,并基于情景分析法,给出应对预案系统案例生成流程框架。
(5)突发群体事件应对方案实时生成和验证。详细阐述了突发群体事件应对方案生成过程,并以瓮安事件及S市新发生突发群体事件为案例,对本文提出的突发群体事件应对预案系统的实施进行验证。
运用自组织理论和演化博弈理论对突发群体事件进行演化分析,在此基础上运用案例推理理论和情景分析方法提出突发群体事件应对预案构建体系,对于剖析突发群体事件演化实质,构建具有针对性、操作性的应对预案体系,对地方政府有效应对突发群体事件具有重要的理论和现实意义,使事件的演化过程能得以控制,保证社会的稳定和公共的安全。
Mass Emergency is one important factor that influences the social stability and social security in the present period of social transition. Mass Emergency is also a crucial point that testing the executive ability of government. Correctly realizing and dealing with outburst Mass Emergency, it is of great real significance to ensure social stability, reduce social lost, maintain social stability and build harmonious society. The prior Mass Emergency preplan system has a certain positive function in dealing with the outburst Mass Emergency, but the shortcomings in pertinence and operation of the preplan are also exposed. Therefore, the preplan should be systematically constructed according to the evolutionary features of Mass Emergency.
The paper serves Mass Emergency as a complex self-organizing system, and it does the dynamic research on the essence of Mass Emergency evolutionary process by applying the self-organizing theory and evolutionary game theory. Based on the analysis of Mass Emergency evolution, the Mass Emergency preplan constructure system is proposed by using the case-based reasoning theory and the scenario analysis method. Considering that Mess Emergency is characterized in difficult forecasting or even incapable of forecasting but requiring emergency disposal, considering that the relation of Mass Emergency is complex and needs to take apart the evolutionary essence, considering that the Mass Emergency preplan has the advanced preparing and supporting function to the Mass Emergency management, the paper, based on the basic theory in the field of management, social science, computer science and science of complexity, makes a detailed discussion on the evolutionary process and emergency preplan system of Mass Emergency. The main content of the paper comprises:
(1) The basic theory analysis supporting the evolution of Mass Emergency and the constructing research of the emergency preplan. The Mass Emergency is systematically analyzed. The self-organizing theory and evolutionary game method are analyzed for supporting the basic theory of Mass Emergency evolutionary rules and of models. A reference model of the Mass Emergency evolutionary game is proposed. The scenario analysis method and case-based reasoning method for supporting the basic theory of emergency preplan constructing research are analyzed, and the combined mode of the two methods is also analyzed.
(2) The research on the Mass Emergency evolutionary model. Based on the typical case analysis of the Mass Emergency, the self-organizing static structure and evolutionary game dynamic flow of Mass Emergency evolution are analyzed, based on which, the integrated evolutionary model of Mass Emergency is proposed. In addition, the main index influenced the Mass Emergency evolution is analyzed, and the influenced index system of Mass Emergency evolution is put forward. The research of this portion provides a basic support for the research of the emergency management and preplan construction of Mass Emergency.
(3) The structure of preplan“case-scenario-preplan”system of Mass Emergency. Based on the evolutionary model of Mass Emergency system, the rule and directing ideology of the emergency management of Mass Emergency are proposed, and an emergency management system frame of Mass Emergency is proposed. The relation and position of the emergency preplan in the frame are illustrated. The preplan“case-scenario-preplan”system frame based on the case-based reasoning is put forward, and the preplan content model and case-based reasoning preplan actualizing model of Mass Emergency are built. The pick-up module of preplan scenario feature formed the model is studied and analyzed, and the function and mutual relation among the five branch modules are also studied and analyzed.
(4) Constructing approach of preplan“case-scenario-preplan”of Mass Emergency. Based on the structure of preplan“case-scenario-preplan”system of Mass Emergency, the achieving thought and approach of the five branch modules in the Mass Emergency preplan system are studied by using scenario analysis, case-based reasoning method and relative indexing, searching and matching methods in computer system. The descriptive frame of preplan system case and the branch structural descriptive methods are put forward. The actualizing method of preplan system index module, case searching module and user interface module is designed. In addition, based on the scenario analysis, the generating flow frame of preplan system case is presented.
(5) Realtime generation and validation of Mass Emergency preplan. The generating process of Mass Emergency preplan is illustrated in full detail. Taking Weng’an Mass Incident and the Mass Emergency currently occurred in S city as cases, the implement of Mass Emergency preplan system can be validated.
The Mass Emergency can be analyzed in evolution by using self-organizing theory and evolutionary game theory, based on which, the Mass Evolution preplan system can be put forward by using case-based reasoning theory and scenario analysis theory. For analyzing the evolutionary essence of Mass Emergency and constructing the preplan system with pertinence and operation, it has a great theoretical and real significance for local government to deal with Mass Emergence effectively, thereby the evolutionary process of the emergency can be controlled, and the social stability and security can be ensured.
引文
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