浅析中国对外贸易商品结构及其对经济发展的影响
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摘要
在目前我国外贸总量和规模迅猛发展的形势下，外贸结构问题成为当前不少经济学家重点关注的问题。本文从有关对外贸易结构的理论回顾入手，运用最新统计数据分析了中国自改革开放以来的近24年来对外贸易商品结构发展的轨迹及目前的现状。在分析中，先将进出口商品分为初级产品和工业制成品两大类，并在此基础上按照国际贸易标准分类标准SITC进行更进一步的细分，分析了各类具体商品的发展趋势和现状。同时，对外贸易商品结构与产业结构调整之间也存在深层次的联系，从而使得外贸结构对我国经济发展的影响不仅表现在对经济总量的静态效应上，更表现在对产业结构调整的动态效应上，除对此进行理论方面的机制分析之外，文中的实证分析也从数字化的角度证明了这种静态及动态的影响，即通过建立一个简单的计量经济模型，运用SPSS软件分析了各类进出口商品对GDP增长的作用及对三次产业比重的影响，并将得出的实证分析结果与中国目前的外贸结构现状进行比较，探讨得出这种结果的原因与必然性，以找出外贸结构调整的努力方向。文章的最后在前面现状分析与实证研究的基础上，根据目前中国外贸结构发展中存在的问题，有针对性地提出了符合中国国情的外贸结构调整的对策。
With the rapid development in china’s total volume of foreign trade, the foreign trade mix has now become the focal point for many economists. This article starts from the review of the theories about foreign trade mix, use the latest statistics to make an analysis of china’s development orbit of its foreign trade mix in the past 24 years since its opening to the outside world, and also its current situation. During the analysis, we categorize the imports and exports generally as primary products and manufactured goods, and make further detailed classification according to SITC. Based on these classifications, we make the analysis about the development trend and the current situation of each specific sort of goods. Meanwhile foreign trade mix also have deep relationship with industrial structure adjustment, thus make it no only have static effects on china’s total GDP, but also effects industrial structure adjustment dynamically. Besides theoretical analysis, the demonstration results also provide a very persuasive proof for both the static and the dynamic effects. In this article, we set up a simple econometric model, use the latest available statistics, with the help of the software SPSS to get the results of the relationship between foreign trade mix and the development of GDP, and also the relationship of foreign trade mix and industrial structure adjustment. In this session, we also make explanation about the results with an attempt to find the striving direction of china’s foreign trade structure adjustment. On the foundation of the previous analysis of the current situation and the demonstration results, contraposing the problems exsiting in china’s foreign trade development, in the last part of the article, the author propose some countermeasures for china’s foreign trade mix adjustment.
With the rapid development in china’s total volume of foreign trade, the foreign trade mix has now become the focal point for many economists. This article starts from the review of the theories about foreign trade mix, use the latest statistics to make an analysis of china’s development orbit of its foreign trade mix in the past 24 years since its opening to the outside world, and also its current situation. During the analysis, we categorize the imports and exports generally as primary products and manufactured goods, and make further detailed classification according to SITC. Based on these classifications, we make the analysis about the development trend and the current situation of each specific sort of goods. Meanwhile foreign trade mix also have deep relationship with industrial structure adjustment, thus make it no only have static effects on china’s total GDP, but also effects industrial structure adjustment dynamically. Besides theoretical analysis, the demonstration results also provide a very persuasive proof for both the static and the dynamic effects. In this article, we set up a simple econometric model, use the latest available statistics, with the help of the software SPSS to get the results of the relationship between foreign trade mix and the development of GDP, and also the relationship of foreign trade mix and industrial structure adjustment. In this session, we also make explanation about the results with an attempt to find the striving direction of china’s foreign trade structure adjustment. On the foundation of the previous analysis of the current situation and the demonstration results, contraposing the problems exsiting in china’s foreign trade development, in the last part of the article, the author propose some countermeasures for china’s foreign trade mix adjustment.
引文
1.《新贸易保护理论及其对国际贸易的影响》钟慧中 国际贸易问题 1999/1
2.《战略性贸易理论初探》王卉 河南大学学报 1998/2
3.《现代国际贸易理论的发展及其评价》李宗凯 毛永彪 财经科学 1998/5
4.《新贸易理论关于规模经济的基本观点及其评析》龚宇富 国际经贸探索 1998/3
5.《竞争战略》 M·E·波特 中国财政经济出版社 1989年
6.《中国对外贸易概论》 黄晓玲主编 对外经济贸易大学出版社 2003年10月第一版
7.《中国对外贸易结构问题研究》张曙霄 东北师范大学博士学位论文
8.《我国对外贸易与经济增长转型的理论与实证研究》 李荣林、张岩贵 中国经济出版社 2001年6月第1版
9.《现代中国对外贸易概论》 廖庆薪、廖力平 中山大学出版社 2000年10月第1版
10.《国际贸易：理论·政策·措施》 张曙霄、李秀敏 中国经济出版社 2001年5月第1版
11.《中国对外贸易结构分析及其调整对策》 赵晋平 管理世界 1998/4
12.《对优化我国出口商品结构的思考》 杨柳 国际贸易问题 1999/6
13.《出口商品结构调整的实证分析》尚琳琳 国际贸易问题 2000/8
14.《中国出口结构与产业结构的实证分析》 李磊 财贸经济 2000/5
15.《中国产品出口结构研究》 刘重力 外贸经济、国际贸易 2001、1
16.《内生比较优势理论与中国对外贸易结构转换》 张亚斌 中国社会科学院研究生院博士学位论文
17.《我国外贸出口结构变化与比较优势实证分析》 岳昌君 国际经贸探索 2000/2
18.《中国对外贸易与经济增长研究》杨全发 复旦大学博士学位论文
19.《现代经济增长模型》 舒元等 复旦大学出版社 1998年12月
20.《中国对外贸易》 徐海宁等 世界图书出版公司 1998年8月
21. Balassa, B. 1965. “Trade Liberalization and Revealed Comparative Advantage”, The Manchesfer School
22. Balassa, B. 1989 “Comparative Advantage, Trade Policy and Economic Development”,Harvester Wheatsheat,1989
23. Balassa, B. 1978 “Exports and Economic Growth, Further evidence”Journal of Development Economics 5,181-189
24. Naughton, B., “China’s Emergence and Prospect as a Trading Nation”. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (1996): 273-344.
25. By Penelope B·Brime and Jong H·Park “China’s Foreign Trade and Investment Strategies: Implications for the Business Environment” Business Economic,1997.10
26. Michael E· Porter “The Competitive Advantage of Nations” Harvard Business Review,1990
27. Paul Krugman & Maurice Obsfeld “International Economics—Theory and Policy”1991
28. National Competitiveness in a Global Economy, Lynne Rienner Publishers,1995
29. Foreign Trade in the People’s Republic of China: past performance and future challenges, Asian Development Review, volume 15,88-197
30. China’s foreign trade and comparative advantage: prospect, problems and policy implication, Alexander J·Yeats, Washington D.C.: World Bank,c1991
31. Michael,M.1977. “Exports and Growth”, Journal of Development Economics,vol.4,pp.49-53
32. Grossman, G. and Helpman, E.(1990) “Comparative Advantage and long-run Economic Growth”, American Economic Review, 736-812
33. http://www.dzdaily.com.cn/licai/caijingxinwen/200403150803.htm
34. http://hdx.hd.gov.cn/develop/xuexi/1.htm
35. 联合国贸易网络北京中心 http://www.eto.com.cn/3/2003-3-19/10@3780.htm
36. 法威网 http://www.lawhighway.com.cn/wto/list.asp?articleid=336
37.《巴西进出口世界排名》中国机械网新闻阅读http://www.86177.com/xwzx/viewnew.asp?ig=6&id=11925
38.《中国对外经济贸易白皮书》2003
39.《中国统计年鉴》2003
40. 中华人民共和国商务部网站统计资料 http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/
2.《战略性贸易理论初探》王卉 河南大学学报 1998/2
3.《现代国际贸易理论的发展及其评价》李宗凯 毛永彪 财经科学 1998/5
4.《新贸易理论关于规模经济的基本观点及其评析》龚宇富 国际经贸探索 1998/3
5.《竞争战略》 M·E·波特 中国财政经济出版社 1989年
6.《中国对外贸易概论》 黄晓玲主编 对外经济贸易大学出版社 2003年10月第一版
7.《中国对外贸易结构问题研究》张曙霄 东北师范大学博士学位论文
8.《我国对外贸易与经济增长转型的理论与实证研究》 李荣林、张岩贵 中国经济出版社 2001年6月第1版
9.《现代中国对外贸易概论》 廖庆薪、廖力平 中山大学出版社 2000年10月第1版
10.《国际贸易：理论·政策·措施》 张曙霄、李秀敏 中国经济出版社 2001年5月第1版
11.《中国对外贸易结构分析及其调整对策》 赵晋平 管理世界 1998/4
12.《对优化我国出口商品结构的思考》 杨柳 国际贸易问题 1999/6
13.《出口商品结构调整的实证分析》尚琳琳 国际贸易问题 2000/8
14.《中国出口结构与产业结构的实证分析》 李磊 财贸经济 2000/5
15.《中国产品出口结构研究》 刘重力 外贸经济、国际贸易 2001、1
16.《内生比较优势理论与中国对外贸易结构转换》 张亚斌 中国社会科学院研究生院博士学位论文
17.《我国外贸出口结构变化与比较优势实证分析》 岳昌君 国际经贸探索 2000/2
18.《中国对外贸易与经济增长研究》杨全发 复旦大学博士学位论文
19.《现代经济增长模型》 舒元等 复旦大学出版社 1998年12月
20.《中国对外贸易》 徐海宁等 世界图书出版公司 1998年8月
21. Balassa, B. 1965. “Trade Liberalization and Revealed Comparative Advantage”, The Manchesfer School
22. Balassa, B. 1989 “Comparative Advantage, Trade Policy and Economic Development”,Harvester Wheatsheat,1989
23. Balassa, B. 1978 “Exports and Economic Growth, Further evidence”Journal of Development Economics 5,181-189
24. Naughton, B., “China’s Emergence and Prospect as a Trading Nation”. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (1996): 273-344.
25. By Penelope B·Brime and Jong H·Park “China’s Foreign Trade and Investment Strategies: Implications for the Business Environment” Business Economic,1997.10
26. Michael E· Porter “The Competitive Advantage of Nations” Harvard Business Review,1990
27. Paul Krugman & Maurice Obsfeld “International Economics—Theory and Policy”1991
28. National Competitiveness in a Global Economy, Lynne Rienner Publishers,1995
29. Foreign Trade in the People’s Republic of China: past performance and future challenges, Asian Development Review, volume 15,88-197
30. China’s foreign trade and comparative advantage: prospect, problems and policy implication, Alexander J·Yeats, Washington D.C.: World Bank,c1991
31. Michael,M.1977. “Exports and Growth”, Journal of Development Economics,vol.4,pp.49-53
32. Grossman, G. and Helpman, E.(1990) “Comparative Advantage and long-run Economic Growth”, American Economic Review, 736-812
33. http://www.dzdaily.com.cn/licai/caijingxinwen/200403150803.htm
34. http://hdx.hd.gov.cn/develop/xuexi/1.htm
35. 联合国贸易网络北京中心 http://www.eto.com.cn/3/2003-3-19/10@3780.htm
36. 法威网 http://www.lawhighway.com.cn/wto/list.asp?articleid=336
37.《巴西进出口世界排名》中国机械网新闻阅读http://www.86177.com/xwzx/viewnew.asp?ig=6&id=11925
38.《中国对外经济贸易白皮书》2003
39.《中国统计年鉴》2003
40. 中华人民共和国商务部网站统计资料 http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/
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