基于物流需求的中国铁路发展现代物流战略模式研究
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摘要
随着供应链管理领域的扩大和经济全球化日益加快,现代物流已成为“第三利润源”和企业的核心竞争力之一,成为国民经济高效运行的重要支撑系统。在现代物流系统中,运输被认为是非常重要的物流资源和极具活力的构成要素,运输系统对物流系统的形成和物流效率的提高产生极其重要的影响。运输过程的优化和成本的有效控制对物流系统的整体优化和物流成本的降低具有决定性的作用。铁路作为中国陆路现代综合交通运输体系的骨干,在现代物流系统中具有难以替代的重要地位和作用。拥有巨大运输资源和网络经营优势的铁路运输业向现代物流拓展,对于构建和强化中国现代物流体系、加快第三方物流的跨越式发展、提高国民经济运行质量和国际竞争力具有十分重要的意义。从竞争及铁路运输的发展趋势看,中国铁路拓展现代物流也是其自身发展的需要。
本文首先对铁路发展现代物流的理论基础,铁路运输在中国物流市场中的地位,铁路发展现代物流的重要性、基础条件及发展状况进行了详细的分析,建立了基于物流需求的铁路发展现代物流的分析框架。利用中国仓储协会对工商企业物流需求的五次调查数据,详细的分析了我国工商企业物流需求的特征、发展变化,及其对铁路拓展现代物流的影响。巨大的物流需求潜力为铁路发展现代物流提供了良好的外部条件；货运结构的变化促使铁路业向联运和集装箱运输及其它综合物流领域发展；物流需求的变化趋势要求铁路纵深发展现代物流、提供一体化的物流服务。
然后根据中国铁路运输的特点,对铁路货运发展趋势进行了预测分析,建立了“灰色预测”数学模型并进行了验证,并利用该模型对铁路货运的需求特征进行了详细的分析并得出了以下结论：(1)货运量和货物周转量将逐年增长；(2)平均运距逐年延长；(3)货运强度下降速度缓慢；(4)煤炭等大宗货物仍是我国铁路货物运输的重要组成部分。根据铁路货运的特征及发展趋势,拓展了王际祥的铁路运输与经济增长模型,并利用该拓展模型对铁路发展现代物流的阶段性特征进行的分析,提出了铁路发展现代物流的战略路径,即加快铁路建设,提供优质运输服务；发展联运和集装箱运输,提供完整运输产品；开展综合物流服务。
接着利用SWOT分析方法对铁路货运发展现代物流的优势、劣势、机会、威胁进行了详细分析；构建了SWOT分析的定量优化模型,利用该模型对铁路发展现代物流战略要素匹配程度进行了详细的分析,并根据各主要的匹配要素提出了相应的可选战略。其中主要发展战略有拓展物流市场、发展物流联盟,加快人才培养、提供物流增值服务、打造物流品牌。进一步根据物流市场需求特征,提出了铁路发展现代物流的主要模式：(1)渐进式发展模式,即铁路企业在原组织方式下,逐渐向现代物流领域拓展,沿着运输专业化——构建物流联盟——建立物流中心——拓展物流服务——建立物流企业集团的方向发展；(2)资源整合型发展模式,即整合铁路物流资源,组建物流产业集团,在不改变货运资源组织方式的情况,通过提供完整运输产品来提高企业竞争力,扩大货运市场；(3)资产重组型发展模式,即结合货运企业重组,组建区域型物流产业集团,从而更有效利用货运资源,更有利于货运结构的调整和提供及时性物流服务。
最后对国外铁路业发展现代物流的典型举措进行了分析；借鉴发达国家铁路拓展现代物流的经验,结合对我国铁路发展现代物流路径及战略模式的分析,提出了目前我国铁路拓展现物流的主要对策。即制定铁路基础设施建设规划；推进铁路政企分开改革,改善铁路发展物流的制度环境；加快铁路标准化建设；建立信息控制网络平台,重视物流人才培养及使用；推动现有铁路货运体系的改革和发展；建立便捷货运体系；发展综合运输服务。
As the expanding of logistics management field and accelerating of economic globalization, modern logistics become "the third profit spring", one of core competences to enterprise and important support system for national economic operation efficiency. Transportation is concerned as very import logistics resource and vigorous component in modern logistics system. The process optimization and effective cost control of transportation system, plays a crucial role in integer optimization and cost reduction of logistics system. As the backbone of modern integrate transportation system, railway system is too important to be replaced. Railway transportation systems, which have its strength in mass transportation resource and network, is expanding its field to modern logistics. This kind of expanding is meaningful to build and strengthen China modern logistics system, to accelerate the third-party logistics development, to improve nation economic quality and international competition strength. At the same time, this kind of expanding is required by its own development as to competition trend.
At first, this paper establishes the analysis model of how railway system develop modern logistics based on logistics demand, after looking into the theories basis for railway developing modern logistics, the status of railway transportation in china logistics market, the importance and fundamental conditions and status in quo of railways developing modern logistics. By using the logistics demand data of industry and commercial enterprises collected by China Storage Association, the characteristics and trends of logistics demand is studied, which have great influences to railways developing modern logistics. These influences are:enormous logistics demand potential creates fair environment for railways developing modern logistics; the freight component structure's changing makes railways expand to through Interlining and container transportation and other complex logistics fields; the changing trends of logistics demand require railways developing modern logistics further and giving integration logistics service.
Secondly, the paper sets up "grey prediction" model and predicts on trends of railways freight demand according to the characteristics of china railroad transportation. The model is validated by data. Using the model, characteristics of demand on railways freight are studied. The characteristics are:freight weight and turnover will rise year by year; average distances of transportation become longer; freight intensity comes down slowly; coal and other bulk cargo still dominate in railways transportation. Model of railways transportation and economic growth brought forward by Mr. Wang jixiang is expanded in accordance with these characteristics. Using the expanded model to analysis stage features, strategic routes for railways developing modern logistics are described as follows:accelerating construction of railways and providing high quality transportation services; developing multi-transportations and container transportation to supply complete transportation services; providing integral logistics services.
SWOT model are used on describing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats of railways developing modern logistics. Quantitative optimization model of SWOT is founded. By using the model, the coordinating relativity of strategic components for railways developing modern logistics is analyzed, and alternative developing strategies are put forward as to different components combination. Main strategies are:expanding logistics market, setting up logistics alliance, accelerates logistics talent training, providing value-added logistics services, building brand on logistics services. Further, main patterns for railways developing modern logistics are put forward according to the features of logistics demand. One pattern is gradual changing pattern. That is, under the original organization frame, railroad enterprises expanding to modern logistics field gradually, following the route as "transportation specialization-constructing logistics alliance-setting up logistics center-expanding logistics services-building up logistics enterprises group ". The second pattern is resource-integrated pattern. That is, uniting most of railroad logistics resource to build up logistics industry group. Under the condition of remaining the freight resource organization frame, railways enterprises improve competences and expanding freight market by providing wholesome transportation service product. The third pattern is asset- reconstructed pattern. That is, building up territorial logistics industry group through reconstructing the asset of transportation enterprises. This kind of reformation leads to using transportation resource more effectively, it adjusting structure of freight and providing in-time logistics services.
Finally, overseas countries' typical measures of railways developing modern logistics are described. By referencing the experiences of railways developing modern logistics in developed countries, measures of railways developing modern logistics in our country is put forward. These measures are:planning on railways infrastructure layout; promoting the reformation of separating government' functions from enterprises' functions in railways, improving the regulation environment for railways developing modern logistics; accelerating the speed of railway standardization; building information control networks platform; paying more attention on cultivating talents in logistics; promoting the reformation and improvement of railway freight management system; setting up quick response freight system; developing complex transportation services.
本文首先对铁路发展现代物流的理论基础,铁路运输在中国物流市场中的地位,铁路发展现代物流的重要性、基础条件及发展状况进行了详细的分析,建立了基于物流需求的铁路发展现代物流的分析框架。利用中国仓储协会对工商企业物流需求的五次调查数据,详细的分析了我国工商企业物流需求的特征、发展变化,及其对铁路拓展现代物流的影响。巨大的物流需求潜力为铁路发展现代物流提供了良好的外部条件；货运结构的变化促使铁路业向联运和集装箱运输及其它综合物流领域发展；物流需求的变化趋势要求铁路纵深发展现代物流、提供一体化的物流服务。
然后根据中国铁路运输的特点,对铁路货运发展趋势进行了预测分析,建立了“灰色预测”数学模型并进行了验证,并利用该模型对铁路货运的需求特征进行了详细的分析并得出了以下结论：(1)货运量和货物周转量将逐年增长；(2)平均运距逐年延长；(3)货运强度下降速度缓慢；(4)煤炭等大宗货物仍是我国铁路货物运输的重要组成部分。根据铁路货运的特征及发展趋势,拓展了王际祥的铁路运输与经济增长模型,并利用该拓展模型对铁路发展现代物流的阶段性特征进行的分析,提出了铁路发展现代物流的战略路径,即加快铁路建设,提供优质运输服务；发展联运和集装箱运输,提供完整运输产品；开展综合物流服务。
接着利用SWOT分析方法对铁路货运发展现代物流的优势、劣势、机会、威胁进行了详细分析；构建了SWOT分析的定量优化模型,利用该模型对铁路发展现代物流战略要素匹配程度进行了详细的分析,并根据各主要的匹配要素提出了相应的可选战略。其中主要发展战略有拓展物流市场、发展物流联盟,加快人才培养、提供物流增值服务、打造物流品牌。进一步根据物流市场需求特征,提出了铁路发展现代物流的主要模式：(1)渐进式发展模式,即铁路企业在原组织方式下,逐渐向现代物流领域拓展,沿着运输专业化——构建物流联盟——建立物流中心——拓展物流服务——建立物流企业集团的方向发展；(2)资源整合型发展模式,即整合铁路物流资源,组建物流产业集团,在不改变货运资源组织方式的情况,通过提供完整运输产品来提高企业竞争力,扩大货运市场；(3)资产重组型发展模式,即结合货运企业重组,组建区域型物流产业集团,从而更有效利用货运资源,更有利于货运结构的调整和提供及时性物流服务。
最后对国外铁路业发展现代物流的典型举措进行了分析；借鉴发达国家铁路拓展现代物流的经验,结合对我国铁路发展现代物流路径及战略模式的分析,提出了目前我国铁路拓展现物流的主要对策。即制定铁路基础设施建设规划；推进铁路政企分开改革,改善铁路发展物流的制度环境；加快铁路标准化建设；建立信息控制网络平台,重视物流人才培养及使用；推动现有铁路货运体系的改革和发展；建立便捷货运体系；发展综合运输服务。
As the expanding of logistics management field and accelerating of economic globalization, modern logistics become "the third profit spring", one of core competences to enterprise and important support system for national economic operation efficiency. Transportation is concerned as very import logistics resource and vigorous component in modern logistics system. The process optimization and effective cost control of transportation system, plays a crucial role in integer optimization and cost reduction of logistics system. As the backbone of modern integrate transportation system, railway system is too important to be replaced. Railway transportation systems, which have its strength in mass transportation resource and network, is expanding its field to modern logistics. This kind of expanding is meaningful to build and strengthen China modern logistics system, to accelerate the third-party logistics development, to improve nation economic quality and international competition strength. At the same time, this kind of expanding is required by its own development as to competition trend.
At first, this paper establishes the analysis model of how railway system develop modern logistics based on logistics demand, after looking into the theories basis for railway developing modern logistics, the status of railway transportation in china logistics market, the importance and fundamental conditions and status in quo of railways developing modern logistics. By using the logistics demand data of industry and commercial enterprises collected by China Storage Association, the characteristics and trends of logistics demand is studied, which have great influences to railways developing modern logistics. These influences are:enormous logistics demand potential creates fair environment for railways developing modern logistics; the freight component structure's changing makes railways expand to through Interlining and container transportation and other complex logistics fields; the changing trends of logistics demand require railways developing modern logistics further and giving integration logistics service.
Secondly, the paper sets up "grey prediction" model and predicts on trends of railways freight demand according to the characteristics of china railroad transportation. The model is validated by data. Using the model, characteristics of demand on railways freight are studied. The characteristics are:freight weight and turnover will rise year by year; average distances of transportation become longer; freight intensity comes down slowly; coal and other bulk cargo still dominate in railways transportation. Model of railways transportation and economic growth brought forward by Mr. Wang jixiang is expanded in accordance with these characteristics. Using the expanded model to analysis stage features, strategic routes for railways developing modern logistics are described as follows:accelerating construction of railways and providing high quality transportation services; developing multi-transportations and container transportation to supply complete transportation services; providing integral logistics services.
SWOT model are used on describing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats of railways developing modern logistics. Quantitative optimization model of SWOT is founded. By using the model, the coordinating relativity of strategic components for railways developing modern logistics is analyzed, and alternative developing strategies are put forward as to different components combination. Main strategies are:expanding logistics market, setting up logistics alliance, accelerates logistics talent training, providing value-added logistics services, building brand on logistics services. Further, main patterns for railways developing modern logistics are put forward according to the features of logistics demand. One pattern is gradual changing pattern. That is, under the original organization frame, railroad enterprises expanding to modern logistics field gradually, following the route as "transportation specialization-constructing logistics alliance-setting up logistics center-expanding logistics services-building up logistics enterprises group ". The second pattern is resource-integrated pattern. That is, uniting most of railroad logistics resource to build up logistics industry group. Under the condition of remaining the freight resource organization frame, railways enterprises improve competences and expanding freight market by providing wholesome transportation service product. The third pattern is asset- reconstructed pattern. That is, building up territorial logistics industry group through reconstructing the asset of transportation enterprises. This kind of reformation leads to using transportation resource more effectively, it adjusting structure of freight and providing in-time logistics services.
Finally, overseas countries' typical measures of railways developing modern logistics are described. By referencing the experiences of railways developing modern logistics in developed countries, measures of railways developing modern logistics in our country is put forward. These measures are:planning on railways infrastructure layout; promoting the reformation of separating government' functions from enterprises' functions in railways, improving the regulation environment for railways developing modern logistics; accelerating the speed of railway standardization; building information control networks platform; paying more attention on cultivating talents in logistics; promoting the reformation and improvement of railway freight management system; setting up quick response freight system; developing complex transportation services.
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