企业异质性与中国出口商品结构研究
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摘要
本文是对企业异质性与中国出口商品结构问题的理论研究和实证检验。中国自2010年起连续两年成为世界第一大出口国,全球产业转移推动了国内制造业的技术进步和转型升级,提升了行业生产率和产业竞争力,出口商品结构发生巨大变化,由改革开放初期以出口劳动和资源密集型产品为主,发展到2011年资本和技术密集型产品的出口占比超过60%。按照传统贸易理论,发展中国家应进口资本或技术密集型产品,出口自然资源或劳动密集型产品,这一论断与我国出口商品结构现状之间产生了冲突。很多学者基于传统的国际贸易理论,从国家和行业层面对中国出口商品结构进行探讨,并不能很好解释这种现象。伴随以企业为核心的国际贸易新格局的出现,部分学者开始将研究视角从传统的国家和产业的宏观视角转移到企业和产品等微观层面,出现了以企业异质性、不完全竞争和规模报酬递增为特征的新新贸易理论(New-New Trade Theory)。很多学者围绕新新贸易理论,对当代国际贸易现实中的贸易模式和生产率增长等诸多特征事实进行了理论和实证研究,解释了企业国际化进程中的出口行为选择,探讨了异质企业是如何从事国际贸易,贸易对企业的生产率增长和福利究竟会产生哪些影响等问题。本文尝试从新新贸易理论出发,基于Melitz的异质性企业贸易模型,探讨该理论是否适用于中国对外贸易的现实情况,研究企业规模、劳动生产率、劳动力质量、外资持股比例等企业异质性因素是否促成了中国特色的出口商品结构的形成。
文章共分七个部分。首先简要说明选题的背景和研究意义、论文框架与研究范围、研究方法以及可能的创新之处等内容,并对相关概念进行界定。文献综述部分围绕异质性企业贸易理论与中国出口商品结构这一主题,对相关文献进行梳理。对新新贸易理论的产生、发展和主要理论观点进行系统文献回顾；介绍新新贸易理论的重要分支——异质性企业贸易理论,包括异质性企业静态贸易模型和动态贸易模型的文献回顾和相关经验研究归纳与整理,并梳理了异质性企业贸易理论在中国的进展；最后对贸易结构决定的理论依据和中国出口商品结构的相关理论及实证研究进行了简单回顾,为后文的研究提供理论支撑。
接下来是本文理论前提的现实考察。首先对传统国际贸易理论与中国出口商品结构之间的冲突进行描述,从宏观结构与微观结构两个方面分析了我国出口商品结构现状。其中,宏观结构主要从初级制成品和工业制成品两个方面进行分析,微观结构包括要素密集度分析和技术密集度分析,并着重以机电产品为例,从技术密集度和要素密集度两方面,阐述了我国机电产品出口结构变化。结果表明：高科技制成品在出口中所占的份额变化最为明显,从1995年的12.86%上升到2011年的32.61%；我国出口商品结构中,资本和技术密集型产品在总出口中的比重都有上升的趋势。从技术密集度来看,我国高技术机电产品所占的比例呈上升趋势,中低技术机电产品所占的比例呈下降趋势;从要素密集度来看,我国大部分机电产品还属于劳动密集型产品。因此得出结论,由于传统贸易理论忽视了技术进步因素和潜在比较优势的发挥和比较优势的转化,一味地从静态的角度分析一国贸易结构,无法很好地解释我国当前的出口商品结构,为后文基于企业异质性的出口商品结构分析做了理论和现实铺垫。其次,以制造业为例考察中国企业的异质性程度。借助上市公司数据和中国工业企业数据库,分别选取2007-2011年电力生产行业上市企业、2005-2009年中国工业企业通讯设备制造业两个样本,从企业规模、劳动生产率水平、资本和技术密集程度等多个反映企业异质性特质的指标出发,对比分析中国国内同产业企业存在的异质性,以及中国国内出口企业与一般企业在所有权性质和地域分布等方面的差异性。并采用欧氏距离法,对多个行业的异质性进行了具体测算,定量分析了不同行业企业间的异质性。
本文的实证检验分两章进行。首先考察异质性企业贸易理论在中国的适用性情况。回顾Melitz(2003)经典模型,其一般结论是国际贸易能够引发生产率较高的企业进入出口市场,而生产率较低的企业只能继续为本土市场生产甚至退出市场。然后验证该模型对我国的适用性问题,结合2005-2008年中国工业企业数据,选择四个中国出口最具有代表性的细分行业,根据出口交货值与工业生产总值(当年价格)的比值将这些行业的企业区分为五种类型,并对2005-2008年四大典型出口行业企业出口交货值、近似全要素生产率等指标进行描述性统计,最后将出口与非出口企业生产率均值进行对比,以反映中国制造业出口情况和生产率情况是否符合Melitz模型的结论。其次,对企业异质性对中国出口商品结构的影响进行实证检验。从企业利润最大化的角度出发,建立理论模型,将生产率、企业规模、劳动力质量、产业特定效应以及地区特定效应等因素纳入模型；使用Probit模型,对模型进行估计,并进行了ROC检验；最后计算了企业异质性因素对我国出口商品结构的边际影响。结果表明：要素生产率对我国出口商品结构的影响虽然符合异质性企业贸易理论,但其边际影响最小。外资持股比例对我国出口商品结构的边际影响最大,这与外商投资企业在高新技术产品出口中始终处于主导地位相符。地区特定效应对我国出口商品结构的边际影响次之,这也与我国实际情况相符。企业规模对我国出口商品结构的边际影响也较大,原因在于企业规模可以超越产生国际贸易的静态比较优势,通过规模经济、产品差异化、专业化分工产生后天的动态比较优势,促进技术水平的跳跃式发展,提升出口商品的要素密集度结构。劳动力质量和产业特定效应对我国出口商品结构的促进作用有限。文章的最后概括全文研究的主要结论,并指出研究不足及进一步研究的方向。
This dissertation makes some theoretical and empirical research on firm heterogeneity and China's export commodity structure. China has become the world's largest exporter since the year of2010. The global industrial transfer promoted the domestic manufacturing technology progress and upgrading, and improved industry productivity and competitiveness. Great changes have taken place in the structure of China's Export Commodities during past thirty years. The export of capital intensive products and technology intensive products accounted for more than60%in the year of2011. According to the traditional international trade theory, developing countries should import capital and technology intensive products, and export natural resources or labor intensive products. Many scholars based on the traditional international trade theory, discussed China's export commodity structure on the state and industry level. However, the traditional theory of international trade can not give us reasonable explanation about this situation. Therefore, the recent development of the research in international trade, as New-New Trade Theory with the characteristics of enterprise heterogeneity and imperfect competition and increasing returns to scale, focus on the research of firms and products, and explain the changes of international trade structure and pattern caused by enterprise level difference. Some scholars make theoretical and empirical research on trade patterns and productivity growth based on New-New Trade Theory. This dissertation based on heterogeneous firm trade model, discussed the applicability of New-New Trade Theory to China's foreign trade, and research how firm heterogeneity factors such as enterprise scale, labor productivity, labor force quality, foreign ownership affect China's export commodity structure.
The article is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter introduces the background, research significance, the framework, the research scope, research method, and the place of innovation. The second chapter systematically reviews New-New Trade Theory, including generation, development and main viewpoint. And then reviews heterogeneous firm trade theory including heterogeneous firm static trade model and dynamic trade model. Finally, we review the theory and empirical research about China's export commodity structure.
The following part is the reality investigation. Firstly, we analysis the current situation of China's commodities structure including macro-structure as commodities and manufactured goods, and micro-structure as elements of intensity and technology intensity. The results indicate that high-tech manufactured goods in the share of exports up from12.86%in1995to32.61%in2011, and there has been a rising trend in the proportion of Capital and technology intensive products in total exports. As traditional trade theory ignored the technical progress and the potential of comparative advantage and the transformation of comparative advantage, and research the trade structure trade statically, it can not give us reasonable explanation about current situation of China's commodities structure. The forth chapter takes the manufacturing industry as an example, to examine the heterogeneity of Chinese firms. We choose two sample collections to contrast, one is the balance panel data of China's listed enterprises of electric power industry from2007to2011, and the other is the balance panel data of China's communications equipment manufacturing enterprises from2005to2009. We point out that the heterogeneity of china's firms in the same industry is obvious by using the method of comparative analysis. And there is evident heterogeneity between the export enterprises and non-export enterprises in the same industry from proprietary rights and regional distribution. Finally, we measure and calculate dozens of industries'firm heterogeneity by using the method of Euclid Distance.
The part of empirical study divided into two chapters. Firstly, we examine the applicability of Meltiz (2003) model in the context of China. Meltiz (2003) model indicates that productivity is the factor for firms to choose whether export or not. Firms with high productivity choose to export while firms with low productivity choose not to export. Using the balance panel data of China manufacturing enterprises from2005to2008, we make a descriptive Statistic analysis on the export delivery value and ATFP and other index of four typical export industries to examine whether the conclusion of Meiltz model could be used in China or not. Secondly, empirical test is carried out on the effect between heterogeneity and China's export commodity structure. Theory model is set up from the view of enterprise profit maximization in consideration of productivity, enterprise scale, labor quality and some other factors. By using the Probit model and ROC inspection, we got the marginal effect of heterogeneity on the China's export commodity structure. The results show that:Marginal effect of Foreign ownership on the China's export commodity structure is the largest. Region specific effect and enterprise scale also have obvious marginal effect. Labor quality, industry specific effect and factor productivity have less marginal effect. The end of the dissertation summarized the main conclusions of the research, and points out the deficiency and the direction of further research.
文章共分七个部分。首先简要说明选题的背景和研究意义、论文框架与研究范围、研究方法以及可能的创新之处等内容,并对相关概念进行界定。文献综述部分围绕异质性企业贸易理论与中国出口商品结构这一主题,对相关文献进行梳理。对新新贸易理论的产生、发展和主要理论观点进行系统文献回顾；介绍新新贸易理论的重要分支——异质性企业贸易理论,包括异质性企业静态贸易模型和动态贸易模型的文献回顾和相关经验研究归纳与整理,并梳理了异质性企业贸易理论在中国的进展；最后对贸易结构决定的理论依据和中国出口商品结构的相关理论及实证研究进行了简单回顾,为后文的研究提供理论支撑。
接下来是本文理论前提的现实考察。首先对传统国际贸易理论与中国出口商品结构之间的冲突进行描述,从宏观结构与微观结构两个方面分析了我国出口商品结构现状。其中,宏观结构主要从初级制成品和工业制成品两个方面进行分析,微观结构包括要素密集度分析和技术密集度分析,并着重以机电产品为例,从技术密集度和要素密集度两方面,阐述了我国机电产品出口结构变化。结果表明：高科技制成品在出口中所占的份额变化最为明显,从1995年的12.86%上升到2011年的32.61%；我国出口商品结构中,资本和技术密集型产品在总出口中的比重都有上升的趋势。从技术密集度来看,我国高技术机电产品所占的比例呈上升趋势,中低技术机电产品所占的比例呈下降趋势;从要素密集度来看,我国大部分机电产品还属于劳动密集型产品。因此得出结论,由于传统贸易理论忽视了技术进步因素和潜在比较优势的发挥和比较优势的转化,一味地从静态的角度分析一国贸易结构,无法很好地解释我国当前的出口商品结构,为后文基于企业异质性的出口商品结构分析做了理论和现实铺垫。其次,以制造业为例考察中国企业的异质性程度。借助上市公司数据和中国工业企业数据库,分别选取2007-2011年电力生产行业上市企业、2005-2009年中国工业企业通讯设备制造业两个样本,从企业规模、劳动生产率水平、资本和技术密集程度等多个反映企业异质性特质的指标出发,对比分析中国国内同产业企业存在的异质性,以及中国国内出口企业与一般企业在所有权性质和地域分布等方面的差异性。并采用欧氏距离法,对多个行业的异质性进行了具体测算,定量分析了不同行业企业间的异质性。
本文的实证检验分两章进行。首先考察异质性企业贸易理论在中国的适用性情况。回顾Melitz(2003)经典模型,其一般结论是国际贸易能够引发生产率较高的企业进入出口市场,而生产率较低的企业只能继续为本土市场生产甚至退出市场。然后验证该模型对我国的适用性问题,结合2005-2008年中国工业企业数据,选择四个中国出口最具有代表性的细分行业,根据出口交货值与工业生产总值(当年价格)的比值将这些行业的企业区分为五种类型,并对2005-2008年四大典型出口行业企业出口交货值、近似全要素生产率等指标进行描述性统计,最后将出口与非出口企业生产率均值进行对比,以反映中国制造业出口情况和生产率情况是否符合Melitz模型的结论。其次,对企业异质性对中国出口商品结构的影响进行实证检验。从企业利润最大化的角度出发,建立理论模型,将生产率、企业规模、劳动力质量、产业特定效应以及地区特定效应等因素纳入模型；使用Probit模型,对模型进行估计,并进行了ROC检验；最后计算了企业异质性因素对我国出口商品结构的边际影响。结果表明：要素生产率对我国出口商品结构的影响虽然符合异质性企业贸易理论,但其边际影响最小。外资持股比例对我国出口商品结构的边际影响最大,这与外商投资企业在高新技术产品出口中始终处于主导地位相符。地区特定效应对我国出口商品结构的边际影响次之,这也与我国实际情况相符。企业规模对我国出口商品结构的边际影响也较大,原因在于企业规模可以超越产生国际贸易的静态比较优势,通过规模经济、产品差异化、专业化分工产生后天的动态比较优势,促进技术水平的跳跃式发展,提升出口商品的要素密集度结构。劳动力质量和产业特定效应对我国出口商品结构的促进作用有限。文章的最后概括全文研究的主要结论,并指出研究不足及进一步研究的方向。
This dissertation makes some theoretical and empirical research on firm heterogeneity and China's export commodity structure. China has become the world's largest exporter since the year of2010. The global industrial transfer promoted the domestic manufacturing technology progress and upgrading, and improved industry productivity and competitiveness. Great changes have taken place in the structure of China's Export Commodities during past thirty years. The export of capital intensive products and technology intensive products accounted for more than60%in the year of2011. According to the traditional international trade theory, developing countries should import capital and technology intensive products, and export natural resources or labor intensive products. Many scholars based on the traditional international trade theory, discussed China's export commodity structure on the state and industry level. However, the traditional theory of international trade can not give us reasonable explanation about this situation. Therefore, the recent development of the research in international trade, as New-New Trade Theory with the characteristics of enterprise heterogeneity and imperfect competition and increasing returns to scale, focus on the research of firms and products, and explain the changes of international trade structure and pattern caused by enterprise level difference. Some scholars make theoretical and empirical research on trade patterns and productivity growth based on New-New Trade Theory. This dissertation based on heterogeneous firm trade model, discussed the applicability of New-New Trade Theory to China's foreign trade, and research how firm heterogeneity factors such as enterprise scale, labor productivity, labor force quality, foreign ownership affect China's export commodity structure.
The article is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter introduces the background, research significance, the framework, the research scope, research method, and the place of innovation. The second chapter systematically reviews New-New Trade Theory, including generation, development and main viewpoint. And then reviews heterogeneous firm trade theory including heterogeneous firm static trade model and dynamic trade model. Finally, we review the theory and empirical research about China's export commodity structure.
The following part is the reality investigation. Firstly, we analysis the current situation of China's commodities structure including macro-structure as commodities and manufactured goods, and micro-structure as elements of intensity and technology intensity. The results indicate that high-tech manufactured goods in the share of exports up from12.86%in1995to32.61%in2011, and there has been a rising trend in the proportion of Capital and technology intensive products in total exports. As traditional trade theory ignored the technical progress and the potential of comparative advantage and the transformation of comparative advantage, and research the trade structure trade statically, it can not give us reasonable explanation about current situation of China's commodities structure. The forth chapter takes the manufacturing industry as an example, to examine the heterogeneity of Chinese firms. We choose two sample collections to contrast, one is the balance panel data of China's listed enterprises of electric power industry from2007to2011, and the other is the balance panel data of China's communications equipment manufacturing enterprises from2005to2009. We point out that the heterogeneity of china's firms in the same industry is obvious by using the method of comparative analysis. And there is evident heterogeneity between the export enterprises and non-export enterprises in the same industry from proprietary rights and regional distribution. Finally, we measure and calculate dozens of industries'firm heterogeneity by using the method of Euclid Distance.
The part of empirical study divided into two chapters. Firstly, we examine the applicability of Meltiz (2003) model in the context of China. Meltiz (2003) model indicates that productivity is the factor for firms to choose whether export or not. Firms with high productivity choose to export while firms with low productivity choose not to export. Using the balance panel data of China manufacturing enterprises from2005to2008, we make a descriptive Statistic analysis on the export delivery value and ATFP and other index of four typical export industries to examine whether the conclusion of Meiltz model could be used in China or not. Secondly, empirical test is carried out on the effect between heterogeneity and China's export commodity structure. Theory model is set up from the view of enterprise profit maximization in consideration of productivity, enterprise scale, labor quality and some other factors. By using the Probit model and ROC inspection, we got the marginal effect of heterogeneity on the China's export commodity structure. The results show that:Marginal effect of Foreign ownership on the China's export commodity structure is the largest. Region specific effect and enterprise scale also have obvious marginal effect. Labor quality, industry specific effect and factor productivity have less marginal effect. The end of the dissertation summarized the main conclusions of the research, and points out the deficiency and the direction of further research.
引文
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