陕西秦岭地区旅游社会—生态系统脆弱性评价及适应性管理对策研究
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摘要
自19世纪中期工业革命以来,随着人们可自由支配收入的不断增加,旅游活动日益成为普通大众的基本生活需求,旅游产业也成为全球最具发展潜力及影响力的产业活动之一。与此同时,旅游发展与生态环境的矛盾也日益突出,大量威胁旅游相关人群生存和发展的环境问题频繁出现。虽然人们普遍认识到问题的严重性并且采取了多种管理应对措施,但或者由于过分关注“效率”和“速度”,或者由于利益驱使,应对效果极为有限,旅游对环境威胁依然严峻。因此,基于新的研究视角,寻求新的研究方法,对旅游发展、环境保护、社会变迁、政府管理等问题综合探讨,提山行之有效的管理对策并确保其充分实施,就显得尤为迫切。社会—生态系统理论(SESs)注重人类社会与其赖以生存的自然生态环境间的相互依存、相互影响,关注人类社会在自然生态环境发生变化时的适应与调整能力,强调系统在遭受干扰后恢复到维持其基本功能和结构的能力,是可持续性研究的前沿领域之一。与其他研究框架相比,当前社会—生态系统理论研究的一个重要特征是研究取向从以效应为主(impacts—led approach)转向以脆弱性为主(vulnerability—led approach),这对于深刻理解人地关系地域系统中人—地交互祸合作用有重要意义。基于人地关系中脆弱性的研究是其焦点,并成为可持续性科学多学科交叉研究的典范,本文将社会—生态系统理论引入旅游研究中,将局域旅游人地关系地域系统视作以旅游为人类干扰活动的旅游社会—生态系统,以生态环境典型区域陕西秦岭地区为案例,在对其旅游发展特征综合分析的基础上,按照“系统构建——系统外部压力分析——系统脆弱性评价及驱动力分析——系统适应性循环过程及机制分析——系统适应性管理对策的提出”的逻辑思路展开全文研究。
全文的主要研究结论如下：
①在对旅游社会—生态系统(TSESs)某些理论特征进行讨论的基础上,指出TSESs研究范式的本质：基于系统视角对旅游业发展最终是否能促进区域社会全方位可持续发展的探讨。
②以区域尺度的旅游社会—生态系统做为研究对象,选取秦岭地区(陕西境内)做为研究案例,界定并构建了秦岭地区TSESs,提出了秦岭地区TSESs的脆弱性评价框架,即：外界旅游压力驱动下的区域系统变化分析——系统变化中的耦合属性评价——系统的适应机制总结。
③对当前秦岭地区TSESs所主要面临的外部压力进行分析,指山当前秦岭地区TSESs是由多种外部压力驱动,来自系统外部的旅游压力的形成其实是秦岭地区系统内部各组分应对全球气候变化影响的一种适应性选择的结果,即全球环境变化——区域生态环境变化——旅游发展应对——应对影响累积(隐蔽性、延迟性、倍增性)——旅游压力形成。在外界压力与系统内部间的相互作用下,当前秦岭地区TSESs面临的主要矛盾为：旅游发展加速与环境承载力不足之间的矛盾,区域系统内部发展不平衡间的矛盾。正是这两对矛盾主导影响了秦岭地区TSESs的脆弱,因而,基于这两对矛盾来评价秦岭地区TSESs的脆弱性正是本文研究的核心议题。
④以行政区划为依据,将秦岭地区TSESs划分为6个区域空间单元。选取16个评价指标,以相关统计数据为基础,结合脆弱性评价模型,分别定量测度了1990—2010年秦岭地区及其内部6个区域系统的脆弱度时空变化,研究结果如下：
时序变化(据1990—2010年时序数据)：秦岭西安TSESs的脆弱度变化呈现出从平稳发展——加速脆弱并保持高值——震荡下降——稳定平缓下降的基本趋势；秦岭宝鸡地区为：维持平稳高值水平——波动后回升——平稳下降——加速上升。秦岭渭南地区为：平稳上升——缓慢下降——缓慢上升。秦岭汉中地区为：总体平稳上升——偶有波动——略快加速上升。秦岭安康地区为：总体维持低值平稳水平——略快加速上升。秦岭商洛地区为：总体维持低值平稳水平——略快加速上升。
空间变化(据1990、2000、2010年截面数据)：1990年,秦岭地区各区域系统总体脆弱度相对较低,且南北区域差异明显,其中秦岭北麓3个地区脆弱度差异较大,西安最低,渭南最高,宝鸡居中；秦岭南麓3个地区脆弱度空间差异则相对较小。到2000年,秦岭地区各区域系统间差异逐渐缩小,且秦岭北麓3个地区变化明显快于秦岭南麓地区。2010年,除总体脆弱度差异继续缩小外,在脆弱度空间分布上呈现出与2000年相反的特征,即：秦岭北麓3个地区脆弱度变化明显慢于秦岭南麓的3个地区,表现为秦岭北麓3个地区脆弱度稍有升降或维持原有水平而秦岭南麓3个地区的脆弱度则大幅度上升。
驱动因素：从1990—2010年秦岭地区各区域系统驱动脆弱度变化的关键影响因子构成来看,西安和渭南大致类似,主要为：地区总体经济水平因子、可利用土地资源因子、外来人口变化因子等。宝鸡和汉中大致类似,主要为：人口素质因子、游客增长率因子、GDP因子、工资依赖度因子、环保投资因子等。安康和商洛大致类似,主要为人口素质因子、客源集中度因子、生物多样性因子等。综合以上可知,自然资源、文化资源、基础设施、旅游就业和财政分配是决定各区域系统脆弱度的5类最关键驱动因子,它们之间耦合关联,决定了系统的脆弱程度及时空变化。
⑤基于区域间的互补性、可达性和中介机会3个方面,选用1990、2000、2010年时间截面数据,结合区域空间形态分析模型、旅游经济联系强度模型、旅游经济隶属度模型、旅游断裂点模型,分析了1990—2010年秦岭地区各区域空间的旅游合作与竞争关系,评价了其对系统脆弱性的影响。结论为：从1990—2010年,秦岭西安、渭南地区通过与其它地区的空间作用脆弱性总体降低,且变化大致稳定；秦岭宝鸡、汉中地区通过与其它地区的相互作用脆弱性总体增高；秦岭安康、商洛地区通过与其它地区的相互作用面临更大的发展风险,但机遇并存,短期内脆弱性不稳定,具有波动性的特征。
⑥综合系统财富、连通度和恢复力,分别对秦岭地区及各区域系统适应性循环过程进行了分析,结果发现：
秦岭地区各区域系统旅游发展均处于适应性循环的保护阶段,还未经历一个完整的适应性循环周期。但各区域系统在变化时段、持续时间、变化特征、影响机制方面各有不同,这既是各区域系统自身对外部压力的应对结果,也受区域问相互作用的复杂影响。
秦岭地区TSESs整体也处于适应性循环的保护阶段(上升期),还未经历一个完整的适应性循环周期。对该过程分析发现：政策变革特别是投资带来的旅游建设用地的调整是系统循环过程的关键驱动力,综合经济实力的增强则可以使系统维持在开发阶段；旅游变化过程中的“不平衡性”特征,会增强系统的外部压力,并可能导致整个系统崩溃释放。
对导致秦岭地区TSESs大尺度)及各区域系统(小尺度)间扰沌的因素进行了分析,发现内聚力、支撑力、中介力和惯性力,以及它们彼此之间具有的动态反馈关系,驱动了不同尺度系统的各自发展。
⑦从环境管理、旅游发展和空间协调3个方面,提出秦岭地区TSESs的适应性管理对策。
Since the mid—19th century industrial revolution, as people discretionary income increases unceasingly, tourism activities has increasingly become the basic needs of the general public, the tourism industry has become one of the most development potential and influence activities in the world. At the same time, the contradiction between tourism development and ecological environment has become more prominent, a lot of threat to the existence and development of the tourism related people environmental problems occur frequently. Although people have a general recognition of the seriousness of this problem and have taken different management measures, but or because of too much focus on "efficiency" and "speed", or because of the interests, the results are unsatisfactory, the threat of tourism on the environment is still grim. Based on the new research angle of view, therefore, to seek new research methods to tourism development, environmental protection, social change and government management, puts forward some countermeasures for effective management and to ensure its full implementation, is particularly urgent. Social—ecological systems theory (SESs) emphasizes the natural ecological environment to the survival of human society and its mutual interdependence, mutual influence, and attention to the human society on natural ecological environment change ability of adaptation and adjustment, emphasizes the system restoration after the interference of the ability to maintain its basic function and structure, is one of the frontier areas of sustainability research. Compared with other research framework, the current social—ecological system theory research has an important feature—the research orientation is given priority to with effect from (impacts—led approach) to give priority to with vulnerability (velnerability—led approach), for the deep understanding of man—land relationship regional system middleman—interaction coupling effect has important significance. Based on this, this article introduces social—ecological systems theory in tourism research, the local tourism man—land relationship regional system as the tourism activities of tourism social—ecological system for human interference, and with the examples of typical regions of Shaanxi QinLing region ecological environment, through the characteristics of tourism development on the basis of comprehensive analysis, in accordance with the "system builds, external pressure analysis, vulnerability evaluation and incentive system analysis, system suitability cycle process and mechanism analysis, system suitability countermeasures of management of" the logic thinking of full text research.
The full text of the main research conclusion is as follows.
①Based on the the characteristics of tourism social—ecological system (TSESs)are discussed,the paper points out that the essence of TSESs paradigm, a discussion based on system view on tourism development whether it can promote the sustainable development of regional society all—round in the end.
②With a regional scale TSESs as the research object, the paper selects the Qinling region as a case study, defines and builds the Qinling mountain region TSESs. And it proposes the Qinling mountain region TSESs vulnerability evaluation framework of system, namely:the pressure analysis from the outside world, system changes the coupling properties evaluation, system of adaptive adaptive mechanism.
③The paper analyzes the main pressure from external systems in the Qinling mountain region. And it points out that the current Qinling region TSESs is driven by a variety of external pressure. In fact, the pressure from outside of the tourism system is the result of an adaptive selection within the system in municipal (county) scale to address global climate change affection, namely:global environmental change—regional ecological environment change—tourism influence response—accumulation (concealment, delay, multiplication)—tourism formation pressure. The pressure makes the Qinling mountain region TSESs the current main contradictions:the contradiction between tourism development and environmental bearing capacity, regional system internal unbalanced development pattern. That two contradictory together results in the fragility of the ecosystem. Based on this two pairs of contradictions to evaluate Qinling region tourism society—the fragility of ecological system is the core issues of research in this paper.
④To the administrative divisions, the Qinling mountain region TSESs is divided into six regional spatial units. According to the research target, the paper selects16evaluation index, based on the relevant statistics, combined with vulnerability evaluation model, respectively quantitative measure of Qinling region from1990to2010and its fragile degrees of six regional system inside the space and time change, and to lead to temporal variation of driving force are analyzed. The results are as follows:
Temporal change (according to time series data from1990to2010):Xi 'an QinLing region TSESs changes present from steady development, accelerate the fragile and keep high value—shock decline—to the basic trend of stable flat drop; Qinling BaoJi region vulnerable degree change trend:—to maintain a steady high value fluctuation after back up—down—acceleration increases steadily. Qinling WeiNan region:steady rise—slow down, slow up. Qinling HanZhong region:the overall smooth rise—slightly faster acceleration in occasional fluctuations. Qinling Ankang region:the overall maintain stable low levels— slightly faster accelerate. Qinling ShangLuo region:the overall maintain stable low levels—slightly faster accelerate.
Space change (according to section1990,2000,1990):In1990, the system in each region of Qinling region with a relatively low overall weak overall fragile degrees, and the obvious region difference, the effect in three areas vulnerable degree of difference is bigger, Xi'an, lowest, highest WeiNan, BaoJi center; South Qinling three areas vulnerable dimension difference is relatively small. By2000, the difference between system in each region of Qinling mountain area gradually narrowed, and the Qinling mountains north three parts change significantly faster than the south qinling area. In2010, in addition to the general fragile differences continue to decrease, presented in contrast to the2000in the spatial distribution of the characteristics, namely:vulnerable degree change in the north Qingling areas significantly slower than the south Qinling region.The former vernerable degree slightly lift or maintain the original water, the later vulnerability is rising significantly.
Driver characteristics:from1990to2010in each region of Qinling region system, to the key impact factor composition that driver vulnerability changes, Xi'an and WeiNan have roughly similarity, it mainly includes:the region's overall economic level factor, the available land resources factor, floating population change factor etc. BaoJi and HanZhong have rough similarity, it mainly includes:population quality factor, tourists depending GDP growth factor, factor and salary factor, environmental protection investment factor, etc. Ankang and shangluo has roughly similarity, it mainly is for population quality factor, market concentration factor, biological diversity factor etc.
a comprehensive analysis of Qinling region from1990to2010vulnerable degree of space and time change and its key driving factors, they are natural resources, cultural resources, infrastructure, tourism employment and financial allocation.These five types of the most critical driving factor, and coupling relation between them decides the fragile degree and the temporal variation of the system.
—Based on the complementarity,accessibility and intermediary to three aspects, the paper chooses1990,2000,2010years'cross section data, combined with the regional space analysis model, the intensity of economic links model of tourism, tourist economic membership model, tourism breaking point model, analyzes the Qinling mountain region in1990—2010regional tourism cooperation and competition relationship of the space, evaluation of its impact on system vulnerability. The conclusion shows:from1990to2010, Qinling Xi 'an and WeiNan region with other parts of the space effect of overall lower vulnerability, and the change is roughly stable; Qinling BaoJi and HanZhong region through interaction with other parts of the overall increase vulnerability; Qinling AnKang and ShangLuo region through interaction with other parts of the face greater development risk amd opportunities, the vulnerability is not stable in the short term, it has the characteristics of volatility.
⑥Integrated system of wealth, connectivity and resilience, the paper analyses adaptive cycle in Qingling region TSESs, the results found:
Qinling region municipal tourism development is in the protection of the adaptive cycle stage, it has not been the adaptability of a complete cycle. Although Qinling area municipal tourism is in the stage of development and protection, but different region have different characteristics in the change time and the influence mechanism.The respective characteristics is not only the regional response to external stress response system itself, it's also affected by complex interaction between regions.
Qinling region TSESs as a whole is also in the protection of the adaptive cycle stage, it has not been the adaptability of a complete cycle. The current in the early stages of protection and is rising. Qinling region TSESs adaptive loop drive factor mainly includes:the economic level, land use change, the policy response.
The paper analyses the panarchy in Qinling region TSESs (large scale) and the municipal TSESs (small scale), the paper found that cohesion, support, intermediary force and inertial force, and has the dynamic feedback relationships between each other, they drive their development of systems with different scales..
⑦From the environmental management, tourism development and coordinate space three aspects, the management countermeasures are put forward in QinLing region TSESs.
全文的主要研究结论如下：
①在对旅游社会—生态系统(TSESs)某些理论特征进行讨论的基础上,指出TSESs研究范式的本质：基于系统视角对旅游业发展最终是否能促进区域社会全方位可持续发展的探讨。
②以区域尺度的旅游社会—生态系统做为研究对象,选取秦岭地区(陕西境内)做为研究案例,界定并构建了秦岭地区TSESs,提出了秦岭地区TSESs的脆弱性评价框架,即：外界旅游压力驱动下的区域系统变化分析——系统变化中的耦合属性评价——系统的适应机制总结。
③对当前秦岭地区TSESs所主要面临的外部压力进行分析,指山当前秦岭地区TSESs是由多种外部压力驱动,来自系统外部的旅游压力的形成其实是秦岭地区系统内部各组分应对全球气候变化影响的一种适应性选择的结果,即全球环境变化——区域生态环境变化——旅游发展应对——应对影响累积(隐蔽性、延迟性、倍增性)——旅游压力形成。在外界压力与系统内部间的相互作用下,当前秦岭地区TSESs面临的主要矛盾为：旅游发展加速与环境承载力不足之间的矛盾,区域系统内部发展不平衡间的矛盾。正是这两对矛盾主导影响了秦岭地区TSESs的脆弱,因而,基于这两对矛盾来评价秦岭地区TSESs的脆弱性正是本文研究的核心议题。
④以行政区划为依据,将秦岭地区TSESs划分为6个区域空间单元。选取16个评价指标,以相关统计数据为基础,结合脆弱性评价模型,分别定量测度了1990—2010年秦岭地区及其内部6个区域系统的脆弱度时空变化,研究结果如下：
时序变化(据1990—2010年时序数据)：秦岭西安TSESs的脆弱度变化呈现出从平稳发展——加速脆弱并保持高值——震荡下降——稳定平缓下降的基本趋势；秦岭宝鸡地区为：维持平稳高值水平——波动后回升——平稳下降——加速上升。秦岭渭南地区为：平稳上升——缓慢下降——缓慢上升。秦岭汉中地区为：总体平稳上升——偶有波动——略快加速上升。秦岭安康地区为：总体维持低值平稳水平——略快加速上升。秦岭商洛地区为：总体维持低值平稳水平——略快加速上升。
空间变化(据1990、2000、2010年截面数据)：1990年,秦岭地区各区域系统总体脆弱度相对较低,且南北区域差异明显,其中秦岭北麓3个地区脆弱度差异较大,西安最低,渭南最高,宝鸡居中；秦岭南麓3个地区脆弱度空间差异则相对较小。到2000年,秦岭地区各区域系统间差异逐渐缩小,且秦岭北麓3个地区变化明显快于秦岭南麓地区。2010年,除总体脆弱度差异继续缩小外,在脆弱度空间分布上呈现出与2000年相反的特征,即：秦岭北麓3个地区脆弱度变化明显慢于秦岭南麓的3个地区,表现为秦岭北麓3个地区脆弱度稍有升降或维持原有水平而秦岭南麓3个地区的脆弱度则大幅度上升。
驱动因素：从1990—2010年秦岭地区各区域系统驱动脆弱度变化的关键影响因子构成来看,西安和渭南大致类似,主要为：地区总体经济水平因子、可利用土地资源因子、外来人口变化因子等。宝鸡和汉中大致类似,主要为：人口素质因子、游客增长率因子、GDP因子、工资依赖度因子、环保投资因子等。安康和商洛大致类似,主要为人口素质因子、客源集中度因子、生物多样性因子等。综合以上可知,自然资源、文化资源、基础设施、旅游就业和财政分配是决定各区域系统脆弱度的5类最关键驱动因子,它们之间耦合关联,决定了系统的脆弱程度及时空变化。
⑤基于区域间的互补性、可达性和中介机会3个方面,选用1990、2000、2010年时间截面数据,结合区域空间形态分析模型、旅游经济联系强度模型、旅游经济隶属度模型、旅游断裂点模型,分析了1990—2010年秦岭地区各区域空间的旅游合作与竞争关系,评价了其对系统脆弱性的影响。结论为：从1990—2010年,秦岭西安、渭南地区通过与其它地区的空间作用脆弱性总体降低,且变化大致稳定；秦岭宝鸡、汉中地区通过与其它地区的相互作用脆弱性总体增高；秦岭安康、商洛地区通过与其它地区的相互作用面临更大的发展风险,但机遇并存,短期内脆弱性不稳定,具有波动性的特征。
⑥综合系统财富、连通度和恢复力,分别对秦岭地区及各区域系统适应性循环过程进行了分析,结果发现：
秦岭地区各区域系统旅游发展均处于适应性循环的保护阶段,还未经历一个完整的适应性循环周期。但各区域系统在变化时段、持续时间、变化特征、影响机制方面各有不同,这既是各区域系统自身对外部压力的应对结果,也受区域问相互作用的复杂影响。
秦岭地区TSESs整体也处于适应性循环的保护阶段(上升期),还未经历一个完整的适应性循环周期。对该过程分析发现：政策变革特别是投资带来的旅游建设用地的调整是系统循环过程的关键驱动力,综合经济实力的增强则可以使系统维持在开发阶段；旅游变化过程中的“不平衡性”特征,会增强系统的外部压力,并可能导致整个系统崩溃释放。
对导致秦岭地区TSESs大尺度)及各区域系统(小尺度)间扰沌的因素进行了分析,发现内聚力、支撑力、中介力和惯性力,以及它们彼此之间具有的动态反馈关系,驱动了不同尺度系统的各自发展。
⑦从环境管理、旅游发展和空间协调3个方面,提出秦岭地区TSESs的适应性管理对策。
Since the mid—19th century industrial revolution, as people discretionary income increases unceasingly, tourism activities has increasingly become the basic needs of the general public, the tourism industry has become one of the most development potential and influence activities in the world. At the same time, the contradiction between tourism development and ecological environment has become more prominent, a lot of threat to the existence and development of the tourism related people environmental problems occur frequently. Although people have a general recognition of the seriousness of this problem and have taken different management measures, but or because of too much focus on "efficiency" and "speed", or because of the interests, the results are unsatisfactory, the threat of tourism on the environment is still grim. Based on the new research angle of view, therefore, to seek new research methods to tourism development, environmental protection, social change and government management, puts forward some countermeasures for effective management and to ensure its full implementation, is particularly urgent. Social—ecological systems theory (SESs) emphasizes the natural ecological environment to the survival of human society and its mutual interdependence, mutual influence, and attention to the human society on natural ecological environment change ability of adaptation and adjustment, emphasizes the system restoration after the interference of the ability to maintain its basic function and structure, is one of the frontier areas of sustainability research. Compared with other research framework, the current social—ecological system theory research has an important feature—the research orientation is given priority to with effect from (impacts—led approach) to give priority to with vulnerability (velnerability—led approach), for the deep understanding of man—land relationship regional system middleman—interaction coupling effect has important significance. Based on this, this article introduces social—ecological systems theory in tourism research, the local tourism man—land relationship regional system as the tourism activities of tourism social—ecological system for human interference, and with the examples of typical regions of Shaanxi QinLing region ecological environment, through the characteristics of tourism development on the basis of comprehensive analysis, in accordance with the "system builds, external pressure analysis, vulnerability evaluation and incentive system analysis, system suitability cycle process and mechanism analysis, system suitability countermeasures of management of" the logic thinking of full text research.
The full text of the main research conclusion is as follows.
①Based on the the characteristics of tourism social—ecological system (TSESs)are discussed,the paper points out that the essence of TSESs paradigm, a discussion based on system view on tourism development whether it can promote the sustainable development of regional society all—round in the end.
②With a regional scale TSESs as the research object, the paper selects the Qinling region as a case study, defines and builds the Qinling mountain region TSESs. And it proposes the Qinling mountain region TSESs vulnerability evaluation framework of system, namely:the pressure analysis from the outside world, system changes the coupling properties evaluation, system of adaptive adaptive mechanism.
③The paper analyzes the main pressure from external systems in the Qinling mountain region. And it points out that the current Qinling region TSESs is driven by a variety of external pressure. In fact, the pressure from outside of the tourism system is the result of an adaptive selection within the system in municipal (county) scale to address global climate change affection, namely:global environmental change—regional ecological environment change—tourism influence response—accumulation (concealment, delay, multiplication)—tourism formation pressure. The pressure makes the Qinling mountain region TSESs the current main contradictions:the contradiction between tourism development and environmental bearing capacity, regional system internal unbalanced development pattern. That two contradictory together results in the fragility of the ecosystem. Based on this two pairs of contradictions to evaluate Qinling region tourism society—the fragility of ecological system is the core issues of research in this paper.
④To the administrative divisions, the Qinling mountain region TSESs is divided into six regional spatial units. According to the research target, the paper selects16evaluation index, based on the relevant statistics, combined with vulnerability evaluation model, respectively quantitative measure of Qinling region from1990to2010and its fragile degrees of six regional system inside the space and time change, and to lead to temporal variation of driving force are analyzed. The results are as follows:
Temporal change (according to time series data from1990to2010):Xi 'an QinLing region TSESs changes present from steady development, accelerate the fragile and keep high value—shock decline—to the basic trend of stable flat drop; Qinling BaoJi region vulnerable degree change trend:—to maintain a steady high value fluctuation after back up—down—acceleration increases steadily. Qinling WeiNan region:steady rise—slow down, slow up. Qinling HanZhong region:the overall smooth rise—slightly faster acceleration in occasional fluctuations. Qinling Ankang region:the overall maintain stable low levels— slightly faster accelerate. Qinling ShangLuo region:the overall maintain stable low levels—slightly faster accelerate.
Space change (according to section1990,2000,1990):In1990, the system in each region of Qinling region with a relatively low overall weak overall fragile degrees, and the obvious region difference, the effect in three areas vulnerable degree of difference is bigger, Xi'an, lowest, highest WeiNan, BaoJi center; South Qinling three areas vulnerable dimension difference is relatively small. By2000, the difference between system in each region of Qinling mountain area gradually narrowed, and the Qinling mountains north three parts change significantly faster than the south qinling area. In2010, in addition to the general fragile differences continue to decrease, presented in contrast to the2000in the spatial distribution of the characteristics, namely:vulnerable degree change in the north Qingling areas significantly slower than the south Qinling region.The former vernerable degree slightly lift or maintain the original water, the later vulnerability is rising significantly.
Driver characteristics:from1990to2010in each region of Qinling region system, to the key impact factor composition that driver vulnerability changes, Xi'an and WeiNan have roughly similarity, it mainly includes:the region's overall economic level factor, the available land resources factor, floating population change factor etc. BaoJi and HanZhong have rough similarity, it mainly includes:population quality factor, tourists depending GDP growth factor, factor and salary factor, environmental protection investment factor, etc. Ankang and shangluo has roughly similarity, it mainly is for population quality factor, market concentration factor, biological diversity factor etc.
a comprehensive analysis of Qinling region from1990to2010vulnerable degree of space and time change and its key driving factors, they are natural resources, cultural resources, infrastructure, tourism employment and financial allocation.These five types of the most critical driving factor, and coupling relation between them decides the fragile degree and the temporal variation of the system.
—Based on the complementarity,accessibility and intermediary to three aspects, the paper chooses1990,2000,2010years'cross section data, combined with the regional space analysis model, the intensity of economic links model of tourism, tourist economic membership model, tourism breaking point model, analyzes the Qinling mountain region in1990—2010regional tourism cooperation and competition relationship of the space, evaluation of its impact on system vulnerability. The conclusion shows:from1990to2010, Qinling Xi 'an and WeiNan region with other parts of the space effect of overall lower vulnerability, and the change is roughly stable; Qinling BaoJi and HanZhong region through interaction with other parts of the overall increase vulnerability; Qinling AnKang and ShangLuo region through interaction with other parts of the face greater development risk amd opportunities, the vulnerability is not stable in the short term, it has the characteristics of volatility.
⑥Integrated system of wealth, connectivity and resilience, the paper analyses adaptive cycle in Qingling region TSESs, the results found:
Qinling region municipal tourism development is in the protection of the adaptive cycle stage, it has not been the adaptability of a complete cycle. Although Qinling area municipal tourism is in the stage of development and protection, but different region have different characteristics in the change time and the influence mechanism.The respective characteristics is not only the regional response to external stress response system itself, it's also affected by complex interaction between regions.
Qinling region TSESs as a whole is also in the protection of the adaptive cycle stage, it has not been the adaptability of a complete cycle. The current in the early stages of protection and is rising. Qinling region TSESs adaptive loop drive factor mainly includes:the economic level, land use change, the policy response.
The paper analyses the panarchy in Qinling region TSESs (large scale) and the municipal TSESs (small scale), the paper found that cohesion, support, intermediary force and inertial force, and has the dynamic feedback relationships between each other, they drive their development of systems with different scales..
⑦From the environmental management, tourism development and coordinate space three aspects, the management countermeasures are put forward in QinLing region TSESs.
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