我国社会保障支出对居民消费水平的影响
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摘要
长期以来,中国一直是个“重出口、重投资、轻消费”的国家,改革开放30年来,一直实行的是出口拉动为主的经济增长模式,经济增长对出口和投资的过度依赖,使得在2008年开始的全球性金融经济危机中,我国的经济遭受了重创。历史的经验教训使得众多专家学者逐渐意识到消费在拉动经济增长、应对经济危机中的重要性,尤其在当前我国所处的国际经济发展背景下,我国的投资与出口步履维艰,而我国是个人口大国,消费还有着巨大的开发空间,扩大内需、促进消费成为我国应对这次全球性经济危机的重要手段。影响居民消费的因素很多,目前对我国来说,社会保障体系的不完善是我国居民消费行为持续低迷的重要原因之一。本文在查阅了国内外有关社会保障与居民消费关系的大量文献后,运用我国相关数据进行实证分析,得出社会保障支出水平对居民消费有着积极影响的论点,并且结合我国国情提出完善社会保障制度的一些政策和建议。
本文分为五章,其中,第一章是本文的重点章节。绪论部分阐述了社会保障的相关概念,选题的目的、理论与现实意义,以及国内外研究现状。第一章是社会保障水平影响居民消费的理论分析部分,该章从四个方面具体阐述了社会保障对居民消费的影响,即居民生命周期养老储蓄、居民消费和储蓄行为的收入分配效应、居民预防性储蓄、居民可支配收入和流动性约束。第二章是我国社会保障水平与居民消费的实证分析部分,即在莫迪利安尼(1963)的经典的生命周期假说消费函数中引入社会保障支出变量,原来的:C_t=α+βY_(t-1)+γ_1W_(t-1)构建新的消费函数Ct=α+βY_(t-1)+γ_1W_(t-1)+γ_2S_t,其中C_t为居民消费支出,Y_(t-1)为居民可支配收入,Wt-1为家庭拥有的金融资产,St为社会保障支出水平,运用Eviews进行线性回归可以得出以下结论:我国社会保障支出与居民消费存在着显著的正相关关系。第三章论述我国社会保障制度的现状和存在的问题。第四章根据我国的现实情况,对我国社会保障体系的完善提出了一些可行性对策与建议。
For a long time, China has been a country which pay attention to export and investment and look down on consumption. Reform and opening up for 30 years, we has been carried out a economic growth mode which pay attention to export However, because of Excessive dependence on export, In the global financial economic crisis begin with 2008, Our economic took a hit. History lessons make many experts and scholars gradually realize the importance of consumption in the face of economic crisis. With the economics background in the world, China's investment and export walking difficult. But because our country is a populous nation and consumption has a huge development space, expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption has become the important means in the face of the global economic crisis. There are many factors which influence the residents' consumption, but now for our country, imperfection of the social security system is one of the important reasons for the sustaining wearying of consumer behavior. After referring to the vast relevant literature of domestic and foreign about relationship between social security and consumer, this paper reach the conclusion that social security spending levels has positive effect on consumer spending.
This paper has five chapters, Among them, the first chapter is the key section. The introduction states the concepts of social security, the purpose、theoretical and realistic significance of it, and current research at home and abroad. The first chapter is the theoretical analysis between social security level and consumer's expenses. This chapter states the relationship between social security and consumer spending from four aspects: residents life cycle retirement saving, the income distribution effects of consumer spending and saving behavior, preventive savings of residents, residents' disposable incomes and liquidity constraints. The second chapter is the empirical analysis between social security level and consumer's expenses. Introduce social security spending variable to the classic life cycle hypothesis consumption function of Modiglianli. The original consumption function is C_t=α+βY_(_(t-1))+γ1W_(_(t-1)), the current consumption function is Ct=α+βY_(t-1)+γ1W_(t-1)+γ2St. Ct is consumer spending, Y_(t-1) is residents' disposable income, W_(t-1) is the family's financial asset, St is social security spending levels. If we do linear regression with Eviews, we can have the conclusion that China's social security spending and consumer exist significant positive correlation. The third chapter discusses present situation of social security in China and the existing problems. According to China's realities, the fourth chapter puts forward some feasible countermeasures and suggestions to our country's social security system.
本文分为五章,其中,第一章是本文的重点章节。绪论部分阐述了社会保障的相关概念,选题的目的、理论与现实意义,以及国内外研究现状。第一章是社会保障水平影响居民消费的理论分析部分,该章从四个方面具体阐述了社会保障对居民消费的影响,即居民生命周期养老储蓄、居民消费和储蓄行为的收入分配效应、居民预防性储蓄、居民可支配收入和流动性约束。第二章是我国社会保障水平与居民消费的实证分析部分,即在莫迪利安尼(1963)的经典的生命周期假说消费函数中引入社会保障支出变量,原来的:C_t=α+βY_(t-1)+γ_1W_(t-1)构建新的消费函数Ct=α+βY_(t-1)+γ_1W_(t-1)+γ_2S_t,其中C_t为居民消费支出,Y_(t-1)为居民可支配收入,Wt-1为家庭拥有的金融资产,St为社会保障支出水平,运用Eviews进行线性回归可以得出以下结论:我国社会保障支出与居民消费存在着显著的正相关关系。第三章论述我国社会保障制度的现状和存在的问题。第四章根据我国的现实情况,对我国社会保障体系的完善提出了一些可行性对策与建议。
For a long time, China has been a country which pay attention to export and investment and look down on consumption. Reform and opening up for 30 years, we has been carried out a economic growth mode which pay attention to export However, because of Excessive dependence on export, In the global financial economic crisis begin with 2008, Our economic took a hit. History lessons make many experts and scholars gradually realize the importance of consumption in the face of economic crisis. With the economics background in the world, China's investment and export walking difficult. But because our country is a populous nation and consumption has a huge development space, expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption has become the important means in the face of the global economic crisis. There are many factors which influence the residents' consumption, but now for our country, imperfection of the social security system is one of the important reasons for the sustaining wearying of consumer behavior. After referring to the vast relevant literature of domestic and foreign about relationship between social security and consumer, this paper reach the conclusion that social security spending levels has positive effect on consumer spending.
This paper has five chapters, Among them, the first chapter is the key section. The introduction states the concepts of social security, the purpose、theoretical and realistic significance of it, and current research at home and abroad. The first chapter is the theoretical analysis between social security level and consumer's expenses. This chapter states the relationship between social security and consumer spending from four aspects: residents life cycle retirement saving, the income distribution effects of consumer spending and saving behavior, preventive savings of residents, residents' disposable incomes and liquidity constraints. The second chapter is the empirical analysis between social security level and consumer's expenses. Introduce social security spending variable to the classic life cycle hypothesis consumption function of Modiglianli. The original consumption function is C_t=α+βY_(_(t-1))+γ1W_(_(t-1)), the current consumption function is Ct=α+βY_(t-1)+γ1W_(t-1)+γ2St. Ct is consumer spending, Y_(t-1) is residents' disposable income, W_(t-1) is the family's financial asset, St is social security spending levels. If we do linear regression with Eviews, we can have the conclusion that China's social security spending and consumer exist significant positive correlation. The third chapter discusses present situation of social security in China and the existing problems. According to China's realities, the fourth chapter puts forward some feasible countermeasures and suggestions to our country's social security system.
引文
[1] Carroll, Christopher, How does Future Income Affect Current Consumption [J].Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1994(10):111-148
[2] Feldestein,M.,Social Security,Induce Retiremen and Aggregate Capital Accumulation[J].Journal of Political Economy, 1974(9):905-926
[3] Glennr, H., Jonathan, S. & Stephen, P., Precautionary saving and social insurance[M]. Rodney White Center for Financial Research Working, 2001:3-95
[4] Kotilikoff, Laurence, Testing the Theory of Social Security and Life-Cycle Accumulation [J]. American Economic Reviews, 1979(6):396-416
[5] Modigliani, The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving, the Demand for Wealth and the Supply of Capital [J]. Social Research 33(summer), 1966:160-217
[6]程璞.我国城镇居民消费行为_基于保障制度变迁视角的研究[D].硕士学位论文,西南财经大学,2007
[7]戴维·罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京:北京商务印书馆,1996:105-113
[8]范剑平.中国城乡居民消费结构的变化趋势[M].北京:人民出版社,2001: 332-362
[9]高燕.再析社会保障制度对当前我国居民消费的影响[J].经济问题探索,2003(1) :29-34
[10]韩冰.我国居民消费与社会保障相关性分析[D].硕士学位论文,山东大学,2006
[11]胡德宝,柳思维.不确定性下的我国城镇居民消费行为研究[J].贵州财经学院学报,2008(1):50-56
[12]李振明.经济转型与居民消费结构演进[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2001: 139-142
[13]林榕.完善社会保障立法是构建和谐社会的当务之急[J].中共福建省委党校学报,2005(10):21-23
[14]牛飞亮.城镇居民收入差距的国际比较[J].经济理论与经济管理,2001(2):64-68
[15]饶颂,钟洁和刘庆相.社会保障不完善对我国消费率影响[J].科技广场,2009(12):10-13
[16]申朴,刘康兵.中国城镇居民消费行为过度敏感性的经验分析_兼论不确定性、流动性约束与利率[J].世界经济,2003(1):61-66
[17]施雯.我国居民消费倾向变动的趋势和原因探索[J].学术交流,2005(9):128-132
[18]宋铮.中国居民储蓄行为研究[J].金融研究,1999(6):46-50
[19]万朝林.完善社会保障体系是启动居民消费需求的关键[J].青海社会科学,2003(5):21-24
[20]万广华,张茵和牛建高.流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费[J].经济研究, 2001(11): 35-44
[21]吴成彬.我国社会保障对居民消费的影响研究[D].硕士学位论文,重庆大学,2010
[22]徐瑞娥.关于我国社会保障制度改革的观点综述[J].经济研究参考,2007(30):31-45
[23]袁芳.论我国的社会保障与居民消费[D].硕士学位论文,首都师范大学,2005
[24]袁志刚,宋铮.城镇居民消费行为变异与我国经济增长[J].经济研究,1999(11): 20-28
[25]臧旭恒.居民资产与消费选择行为分析[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2001: 112-156
[26]张继海.社会保障影响居民消费和储蓄行为的理论分析[J].大连干部学院学报,2005(4):25-27
[27]张曼曼.我国社会保障体系建设对城镇居民消费的影响[D].硕士学位论文,西南大学,2010
[28]张治觉,吴定玉.我国财政社会保障对居民消费产生引致还是挤出效应[J].消费经济,2010(6):12-15
[29]郑功成.中国社会保障制度变迁与评估[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2002: 20-58
[30]朱春燕,臧旭恒.预防性储蓄理论_储蓄(消费)函数的新进展[J].经济研究,2001(1): 84-90
[31]朱雨可.社会保障制度变迁对我国居民消费行为的影响[J].消费经济,2006(2):69-71
[32]朱雨可.我国社会保障制度变迁与居民消费行为演进[D].硕士学位论文,西南财经大学,2004
[33]邹东涛.制度变迁中个人、企业和政府行为主体的经济分析[J].北京大学学报, 2002(2):5-14
[2] Feldestein,M.,Social Security,Induce Retiremen and Aggregate Capital Accumulation[J].Journal of Political Economy, 1974(9):905-926
[3] Glennr, H., Jonathan, S. & Stephen, P., Precautionary saving and social insurance[M]. Rodney White Center for Financial Research Working, 2001:3-95
[4] Kotilikoff, Laurence, Testing the Theory of Social Security and Life-Cycle Accumulation [J]. American Economic Reviews, 1979(6):396-416
[5] Modigliani, The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving, the Demand for Wealth and the Supply of Capital [J]. Social Research 33(summer), 1966:160-217
[6]程璞.我国城镇居民消费行为_基于保障制度变迁视角的研究[D].硕士学位论文,西南财经大学,2007
[7]戴维·罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京:北京商务印书馆,1996:105-113
[8]范剑平.中国城乡居民消费结构的变化趋势[M].北京:人民出版社,2001: 332-362
[9]高燕.再析社会保障制度对当前我国居民消费的影响[J].经济问题探索,2003(1) :29-34
[10]韩冰.我国居民消费与社会保障相关性分析[D].硕士学位论文,山东大学,2006
[11]胡德宝,柳思维.不确定性下的我国城镇居民消费行为研究[J].贵州财经学院学报,2008(1):50-56
[12]李振明.经济转型与居民消费结构演进[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2001: 139-142
[13]林榕.完善社会保障立法是构建和谐社会的当务之急[J].中共福建省委党校学报,2005(10):21-23
[14]牛飞亮.城镇居民收入差距的国际比较[J].经济理论与经济管理,2001(2):64-68
[15]饶颂,钟洁和刘庆相.社会保障不完善对我国消费率影响[J].科技广场,2009(12):10-13
[16]申朴,刘康兵.中国城镇居民消费行为过度敏感性的经验分析_兼论不确定性、流动性约束与利率[J].世界经济,2003(1):61-66
[17]施雯.我国居民消费倾向变动的趋势和原因探索[J].学术交流,2005(9):128-132
[18]宋铮.中国居民储蓄行为研究[J].金融研究,1999(6):46-50
[19]万朝林.完善社会保障体系是启动居民消费需求的关键[J].青海社会科学,2003(5):21-24
[20]万广华,张茵和牛建高.流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费[J].经济研究, 2001(11): 35-44
[21]吴成彬.我国社会保障对居民消费的影响研究[D].硕士学位论文,重庆大学,2010
[22]徐瑞娥.关于我国社会保障制度改革的观点综述[J].经济研究参考,2007(30):31-45
[23]袁芳.论我国的社会保障与居民消费[D].硕士学位论文,首都师范大学,2005
[24]袁志刚,宋铮.城镇居民消费行为变异与我国经济增长[J].经济研究,1999(11): 20-28
[25]臧旭恒.居民资产与消费选择行为分析[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2001: 112-156
[26]张继海.社会保障影响居民消费和储蓄行为的理论分析[J].大连干部学院学报,2005(4):25-27
[27]张曼曼.我国社会保障体系建设对城镇居民消费的影响[D].硕士学位论文,西南大学,2010
[28]张治觉,吴定玉.我国财政社会保障对居民消费产生引致还是挤出效应[J].消费经济,2010(6):12-15
[29]郑功成.中国社会保障制度变迁与评估[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2002: 20-58
[30]朱春燕,臧旭恒.预防性储蓄理论_储蓄(消费)函数的新进展[J].经济研究,2001(1): 84-90
[31]朱雨可.社会保障制度变迁对我国居民消费行为的影响[J].消费经济,2006(2):69-71
[32]朱雨可.我国社会保障制度变迁与居民消费行为演进[D].硕士学位论文,西南财经大学,2004
[33]邹东涛.制度变迁中个人、企业和政府行为主体的经济分析[J].北京大学学报, 2002(2):5-14