输配分开环境下供电公司的经营风险控制方法研究
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摘要
经过多年来的努力,我国电力市场改革已取得了阶段性的成果。从目前改革的现状来看,“厂网分开”工作已经取得了可喜的成果,下一阶段改革已经逐步提到电力工业改革的议程上。而逐步实现输配分开将是下一阶段改革的主要工作之一。输配分开主要是指在原有的基础上逐步实现电网企业和配售电企业的分离,电网企业主要负责无歧视地向电力市场中的其他成员提供输电服务,而配售电企业则主要负责代表用户向发电公司进行购电,安全无误地输送给用户。就我国目前电力市场结构来看,供电公司将承担起输配分开环境下输配电企业应该承担的责任,其在电力市场中的角色和发挥的作用都发生了重大的变化,这对供电公司来说既是一定的机会,同时也给其带来了一定的风险。而电力市场的进一步自由化要求供电公司不得不重视经营管理中的风险问题,因此研究输配分开环境下供电公司的经营风险问题对提高供电公司的运营效率和保证市场的平稳过渡有着重要的作用和意义。文章就是在这种背景下进行研究的。具体在以下几个方面做出了有意义的贡献:
1)考虑到输配分开环境下供电公司在现货市场上需进行竞价购电和同时可向多个交易中心购电这一特点,构建了供电公司在多交易中心的最优交叉报价策略模型和电能分配策略模型;
2)考虑到供电公司可能面临到的发电商合约违约风险问题和合约的长期安排问题,运用模糊概率表征数据不充分条件下发电商的违约概率,构建了供电公司的最优合约长期安排动态规划模型,并提出了一种降维半解析算法对问题进行求解;
3)运用模糊集理论表示备用率的不确定性,并采用半方差理论描述备用市场价格的风险,提出了一种基于半方差理论下供电公司的最优备用容量模糊购电策略模型;
4)分析对比了国外常用的输电电价监管机制特点,针对我国的实际情况,提出了一种符合我国国情的输电电价监管激励模型,并对如何确定模型中一些关键因素进行了分析;
5)提出了一种综合运用模糊集理论和概率理论进行风险分析的配电网投资风险评估模型,并探讨了在这种评估模型下的决策准则;
6)给出了可中断负荷在减少供电公司供电可靠性风险成本方面的量化模型,包括备用风险购买成本和配电网投资风险成本两个方面;
7)总结了输配分开环境下供电公司实施需求侧管理面临的风险因素,并运用ISM解析结构模型剖析了这些因素之间的关系及系统的结构,为供电公司提高需求侧管理水平提供了参考。
For many years’efforts, the electricity market reform of China has achieved initial results. From the recently statues, "the Separation of Grid and Generation" has basicly finished, and the reform will enter the next important step. One of the main works of the next step is the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution", which means that the transmission enterprise and distribution enterprise will be separated step by step base on the original basis. Power Grid Company is responsible for the non-discriminatory transmission services to the other electricity market members, and the distribution enterprises are mainly responsible for representing the users to purchase electricity from generating companies, and transmit to the users safetly. From the recently electricity market structure, the supply company is undertaking the responsibility instead of the transmission and distribution company in the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution" environment, and its role and function have changed a lot in the electricity market. This brings both chances and risks to the supply company. However, the further freedom of the electricity market asks for that the supply company have to pay attention to the risk problem in its common management. Therefore, it is important for improving the management efficiency and the smooth transition of the supply company to research the risk manage problem, and it has great function and the significance. This is the background of this paper, and the meaningful contributions of the paper are shown as follows:
1) Considering the Characteristics that the supply enterprise can buy electricity from several trading center in the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution" environment, the optimal model of cross-pricing strategy and distibution of electric energy strategy are constructed;
2) Considering the problems that the power company may face the risk of default generation's contract issues and the long-term contract arrangements, the fuzzy probability is used to express the default generation's contract under the unfully condition, and the optimal dynamic programming model for long-term contracts is built, and the drop-dimensional semi-analyical method is present to solve the model;
3) The fuzzy set theory is used to express the uncertainty reserve rate, and the semi-variance theory is used to express the risk of the reserve price. Base on the semi-variance theory, the electricity reserve capacity fuzzy strategy optimal model of the supply enterprise is present;
4) The transmission characteristics of electricity price control mechanism of the foreign commonly used is analysed and compared. For China's recently status, the transmission tariff regulation incentive model is present, and the key factors of the model is analyzed;
5) Base on the fuzzy set theory and the probability theroy, the model of the distribution investment risk evalution is present, and the relative rules is discussed;
6) The quantity model for the interruptible load reducing supply enterprise reliability risk cost is presented, which includes the risk of reserve puchase and the risk cost of disturbution investment;
7) The risk factors of the supply enterprise demand side management in the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution" environment is summarized, and the ISM analysis struction model is used to analyse the factors relations and the structure, which provides the informaiton to the supply enterprise.
1)考虑到输配分开环境下供电公司在现货市场上需进行竞价购电和同时可向多个交易中心购电这一特点,构建了供电公司在多交易中心的最优交叉报价策略模型和电能分配策略模型;
2)考虑到供电公司可能面临到的发电商合约违约风险问题和合约的长期安排问题,运用模糊概率表征数据不充分条件下发电商的违约概率,构建了供电公司的最优合约长期安排动态规划模型,并提出了一种降维半解析算法对问题进行求解;
3)运用模糊集理论表示备用率的不确定性,并采用半方差理论描述备用市场价格的风险,提出了一种基于半方差理论下供电公司的最优备用容量模糊购电策略模型;
4)分析对比了国外常用的输电电价监管机制特点,针对我国的实际情况,提出了一种符合我国国情的输电电价监管激励模型,并对如何确定模型中一些关键因素进行了分析;
5)提出了一种综合运用模糊集理论和概率理论进行风险分析的配电网投资风险评估模型,并探讨了在这种评估模型下的决策准则;
6)给出了可中断负荷在减少供电公司供电可靠性风险成本方面的量化模型,包括备用风险购买成本和配电网投资风险成本两个方面;
7)总结了输配分开环境下供电公司实施需求侧管理面临的风险因素,并运用ISM解析结构模型剖析了这些因素之间的关系及系统的结构,为供电公司提高需求侧管理水平提供了参考。
For many years’efforts, the electricity market reform of China has achieved initial results. From the recently statues, "the Separation of Grid and Generation" has basicly finished, and the reform will enter the next important step. One of the main works of the next step is the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution", which means that the transmission enterprise and distribution enterprise will be separated step by step base on the original basis. Power Grid Company is responsible for the non-discriminatory transmission services to the other electricity market members, and the distribution enterprises are mainly responsible for representing the users to purchase electricity from generating companies, and transmit to the users safetly. From the recently electricity market structure, the supply company is undertaking the responsibility instead of the transmission and distribution company in the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution" environment, and its role and function have changed a lot in the electricity market. This brings both chances and risks to the supply company. However, the further freedom of the electricity market asks for that the supply company have to pay attention to the risk problem in its common management. Therefore, it is important for improving the management efficiency and the smooth transition of the supply company to research the risk manage problem, and it has great function and the significance. This is the background of this paper, and the meaningful contributions of the paper are shown as follows:
1) Considering the Characteristics that the supply enterprise can buy electricity from several trading center in the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution" environment, the optimal model of cross-pricing strategy and distibution of electric energy strategy are constructed;
2) Considering the problems that the power company may face the risk of default generation's contract issues and the long-term contract arrangements, the fuzzy probability is used to express the default generation's contract under the unfully condition, and the optimal dynamic programming model for long-term contracts is built, and the drop-dimensional semi-analyical method is present to solve the model;
3) The fuzzy set theory is used to express the uncertainty reserve rate, and the semi-variance theory is used to express the risk of the reserve price. Base on the semi-variance theory, the electricity reserve capacity fuzzy strategy optimal model of the supply enterprise is present;
4) The transmission characteristics of electricity price control mechanism of the foreign commonly used is analysed and compared. For China's recently status, the transmission tariff regulation incentive model is present, and the key factors of the model is analyzed;
5) Base on the fuzzy set theory and the probability theroy, the model of the distribution investment risk evalution is present, and the relative rules is discussed;
6) The quantity model for the interruptible load reducing supply enterprise reliability risk cost is presented, which includes the risk of reserve puchase and the risk cost of disturbution investment;
7) The risk factors of the supply enterprise demand side management in the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution" environment is summarized, and the ISM analysis struction model is used to analyse the factors relations and the structure, which provides the informaiton to the supply enterprise.
引文
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