基于定性模拟的渠道关系分析方法研究
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摘要
随着经济全球化进程的加快,越来越多的企业已经认识到,只有从战略的高度出发,寻求、培育和发展渠道关系,才能适应新时期下的竞争环境。但是,渠道关系是组织间的关系,不仅具有经济交换关系特征,还包含复杂的社会交换关系。现有的渠道关系行为分析方法多从理论模型出发,制作调查问卷,收集数据,进行数理统计分析,以验证理论模型;或者是采用观察法、访谈法、田野调查法等定性方法总结分析渠道关系行为间的作用规律。然而,渠道关系的发展迫切需要一种新的技术,来分析验证渠道关系的动态特征,使渠道关系行为管理具有一定的预测性和柔性。人工智能和定性模拟技术的发展为实现这种思想提供了可能。
首先,本文针对渠道关系系统的特点,分析引用定性模拟技术的可行性。然后根据渠道关系系统的特点,分析渠道关系系统描述、系统状态方程、状态表示及其转换规则,对适用于物理系统的定性模拟方法进行改造。
其次,根据渠道成员交换过程模型,将渠道关系行为过程定性模拟模型分为关系发起过程子模块、关系执行过程子模块和关系评价过程子模块。分析各子模块的主要行为要素及其彼此作用关系。在此基础上建立渠道关系行为过程定性模拟模型。分析渠道关系行为变量的变化特征,设计其知识表示,并建立相关专家知识约束状态变量的转换。各子模块内通过因变量的概率分布来确定果变量的概率分布,前一个过程子模块的概率分布决定后一个子模块入口变量的概率分布,从而推理系统的可能行为。通过设定典型模拟环境,验证模拟模型的有效性。
再次,基于信任-承诺互动模型,分析渠道关系情感过程的价值功能及其影响因素。设计表达渠道关系情感过程的定性目标函数,提出定性运算概念,对渠道关系情感过程进行定性分析。运用规划论原理分析目标函数特征,以此来分析渠道关系情感过程中信任、承诺的变化规律。设计相应的定性模拟方法,并进行模拟,模拟结果与相关理论研究对照,验证定性模拟模型。
最后,针对渠道关系定性模拟情感变量的度量问题,以关系价值度量为例,在建立关系价值的度量指标体系的基础上,建立渠道关系价值度量过程模型。提出组织层面关系价值度量原理,研究基于PROMETHEE法和基于案例推理技术的关系价值度量方法,并进行了算例验证。
With economic globalization, an increasing number of enterprises have already realized that it is essential to seek, cultivate and develop channel relationships from strategic level for adapting competitive environment in the new period. The channel relationships as interorganization relationships have not only characteristics of the economical exchange relationships, but also the complex society exchange relationships. Most of the existing analysis methods on channel relationships based on theoretical models, including designing a questionnaire, collecting data and carring out mathematical statistic analysis to verify theoretical models, or using interview, observation and field survey to analyze qualitatively interaction of channel behaviors. However, with the development of channel relationships, a new technology, making a certain degree of predictability and flexibility for channel managment, is required urgently for analyzing and confirming the dynamic characteristics of channel relationships. The artificial intelligence and the qualitative simulation technique can be used to implement this idea.
First, this dissertation analyzes the feasibility of qualitative simulation technique with the characteristic of channel relationship system. Then, to analyze the behavior system description of channel relationships, the equation of system states, the denotion of states and the translation rule, and improve qualitative simulation method used to physical system.
Next, according to the model of exchange process of channel members and qualitative modularized modeling technology, qualitative simulation model of channel relationship behavior process is divided into three submodules, including relationship’s initiate, implement and valuation. This dissertation analyzes the main behavior factors of various submodules and their interactive relations to establish the simulation model of channel relationship behavior process. According to change features of channel relationship behavior variables, this dissertation designes their knowledge representation and establishes related expert’s knowledge to restrain their state transformation. The probability distribution of independent variable is achieved based on the probability distribution of the dependent variable in the submodule, and the probability distribution of the prior process submodule determines that of entry variable of the latter submodule, which are used to reason possible states of the system. The validity of modeling simulation is verified through typical environment.
Then, this dissertation elaborates the mechanism of channel relationship emotion process based on the interactive trust-commitment model. The dissertation analyzes the effective factors on the emotion process, and sturctures the qualitative simulation model based on the interactive trust-commitment. This dissertation also designs and expresses the qualitative objective function of the system’s causal relation, and analyzes the characteristic of the objective function with planning theory. The rules of emotion process of channel relationship are discussed in the different trust-commitment pattern, and simulation model is verified through the comparison with the related theory.
Finally, for the measurement of channel relationships emotion variables, taking relationship value for example, this dissertation proposes measuring principle of relationship value and establishes a process model based on index system of relationship value measurement. This dissertation also studies relationship value measurement method based on PROMETHEE and Case-Base Reasoning, and carries out a calculation example.
首先,本文针对渠道关系系统的特点,分析引用定性模拟技术的可行性。然后根据渠道关系系统的特点,分析渠道关系系统描述、系统状态方程、状态表示及其转换规则,对适用于物理系统的定性模拟方法进行改造。
其次,根据渠道成员交换过程模型,将渠道关系行为过程定性模拟模型分为关系发起过程子模块、关系执行过程子模块和关系评价过程子模块。分析各子模块的主要行为要素及其彼此作用关系。在此基础上建立渠道关系行为过程定性模拟模型。分析渠道关系行为变量的变化特征,设计其知识表示,并建立相关专家知识约束状态变量的转换。各子模块内通过因变量的概率分布来确定果变量的概率分布,前一个过程子模块的概率分布决定后一个子模块入口变量的概率分布,从而推理系统的可能行为。通过设定典型模拟环境,验证模拟模型的有效性。
再次,基于信任-承诺互动模型,分析渠道关系情感过程的价值功能及其影响因素。设计表达渠道关系情感过程的定性目标函数,提出定性运算概念,对渠道关系情感过程进行定性分析。运用规划论原理分析目标函数特征,以此来分析渠道关系情感过程中信任、承诺的变化规律。设计相应的定性模拟方法,并进行模拟,模拟结果与相关理论研究对照,验证定性模拟模型。
最后,针对渠道关系定性模拟情感变量的度量问题,以关系价值度量为例,在建立关系价值的度量指标体系的基础上,建立渠道关系价值度量过程模型。提出组织层面关系价值度量原理,研究基于PROMETHEE法和基于案例推理技术的关系价值度量方法,并进行了算例验证。
With economic globalization, an increasing number of enterprises have already realized that it is essential to seek, cultivate and develop channel relationships from strategic level for adapting competitive environment in the new period. The channel relationships as interorganization relationships have not only characteristics of the economical exchange relationships, but also the complex society exchange relationships. Most of the existing analysis methods on channel relationships based on theoretical models, including designing a questionnaire, collecting data and carring out mathematical statistic analysis to verify theoretical models, or using interview, observation and field survey to analyze qualitatively interaction of channel behaviors. However, with the development of channel relationships, a new technology, making a certain degree of predictability and flexibility for channel managment, is required urgently for analyzing and confirming the dynamic characteristics of channel relationships. The artificial intelligence and the qualitative simulation technique can be used to implement this idea.
First, this dissertation analyzes the feasibility of qualitative simulation technique with the characteristic of channel relationship system. Then, to analyze the behavior system description of channel relationships, the equation of system states, the denotion of states and the translation rule, and improve qualitative simulation method used to physical system.
Next, according to the model of exchange process of channel members and qualitative modularized modeling technology, qualitative simulation model of channel relationship behavior process is divided into three submodules, including relationship’s initiate, implement and valuation. This dissertation analyzes the main behavior factors of various submodules and their interactive relations to establish the simulation model of channel relationship behavior process. According to change features of channel relationship behavior variables, this dissertation designes their knowledge representation and establishes related expert’s knowledge to restrain their state transformation. The probability distribution of independent variable is achieved based on the probability distribution of the dependent variable in the submodule, and the probability distribution of the prior process submodule determines that of entry variable of the latter submodule, which are used to reason possible states of the system. The validity of modeling simulation is verified through typical environment.
Then, this dissertation elaborates the mechanism of channel relationship emotion process based on the interactive trust-commitment model. The dissertation analyzes the effective factors on the emotion process, and sturctures the qualitative simulation model based on the interactive trust-commitment. This dissertation also designs and expresses the qualitative objective function of the system’s causal relation, and analyzes the characteristic of the objective function with planning theory. The rules of emotion process of channel relationship are discussed in the different trust-commitment pattern, and simulation model is verified through the comparison with the related theory.
Finally, for the measurement of channel relationships emotion variables, taking relationship value for example, this dissertation proposes measuring principle of relationship value and establishes a process model based on index system of relationship value measurement. This dissertation also studies relationship value measurement method based on PROMETHEE and Case-Base Reasoning, and carries out a calculation example.
引文
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