森林植被变化与气候变化的径流响应研究
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摘要
森林与水是人类社会发展必不可少的物质基础,也是森林生态系统的核心组成部分,二者之间关系复杂,是现代水文学与生态学领域关注的热点问题。变化环境(气候变化和人类活动)下的流域生态水文研究对于流域管理、水资源规划配置以及区域经济发展具有十分重要的意义。森林试验流域作为研究森林管理方式对流域径流影响的有效途径在世界范围内得到广泛应用。以试验流域为纽带,系统探讨植被变化和气候变化对径流变化的影响是目前水科学研究的中心议题之一。本文以澳大利亚东南部3个中尺度森林试验流域Crawford River、Darlot Creek和Tinana Creek为例,在提出植被变化和气候变化对径流影响划分思路的基础上,分别采用气候弹性系数方法(包括非参数方法和Budyko-framework方法6种不同表达式)和水文模型方法从不同角度量化植被变化影响量和气候变化影响量,并对各种估算方法的适用性进行评价。本文主要研究内容与成果如下：
(1)趋势性是反映流域水文循环过程中各要素总体变化情况的重要指标。针对不同气候区3个森林试验流域,采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验、Spearman秩次相关检验和线性回归检验方法分别对降雨、气温、区域潜在蒸散发(APET)和径流系列多年变化的趋势性进行识别,定性分析了植被变化和气候变异对流域径流变化的影响。采用流量历时曲线(FDC)方法较直观地描绘了各流域植被变化前后径流频率的变化,进一步分析了植被变化对径流变化的影响。
(2)森林植被变化对区域径流量的影响是现代森林水文学研究的核心问题之一。试验流域方法是研究植被变化水文响应最基础、最可靠的方法。在水文气象要素变化分析的前提下,以单一流域试验方法为基础构建划分植被变化与气候变化径流响应的研究框架。通过采用多种基于统计学的气候弹性系数方法(非参数方法和Budyko-framework方法)单独量化气候变化对各流域年径流量的影响,比较分析各种方法估算结果的可靠性和一致性,从而对植被变化影响量作出定量估计。针对单一流域试验方法运行周期长,管理费用昂贵的缺点,提出在造林试验流域运用反过程伐林假设情景,以拓宽单一试验,流域方法的适用性,并从不同角度验证植被变化影响量与气候变化影响量结果的准确性。
(3)针对气候弹性系数方法在划分植被、气候变化径流响应时只能得到多年平均估算结果且计算时间尺度过于单一的缺点,采用中国的新安江模型和澳大利亚的SIMHYD模型在日尺度上模拟植被变化前后各流域的径流过程,进而估算植被变化影响下多年平均径流变化量。在前文划分试验流域基准期的前提下,采用广义模式搜索(GPS)算法对两个模型的参数进行自动优选,然后将率定好的模型应用于预测期以模拟植被变化(造林和“伐林”)对径流过程的影响。通过单独量化植被变化的径流响应,进而确定气候变化对径流变化影响的贡献。将模型方法划分植被变化与气候变化影响量的结果与气候弹性系数方法所得结果进行比较,验证本文划分各因素影响量方法的可靠性。
(4)植被覆盖通过影响土壤蓄水、冠层截留和蒸散发等过程进而对流域水文循环产生重大影响。针对概念性降雨径流模型较少考虑植被变化过程的不足,本文采用基于AVHRR遥感叶面积指数的Penman-Monteith蒸散发模型对原新安江模型的三层蒸散发模块和SIMHYD模型的一层蒸散发模块进行改进,从而将遥感植被信息加入到概念性降雨径流模型中。利用Crawford River流域水文气象数据对改进的模型(新安江一ET模型和SIMHYD-ET模型)进行率定和验证,研究结果表明,改进的模型与原模型相比,其率定和验证精度均有一定提高,说明将植被信息加入到概念性降雨径流模型中能够改善模型模拟性能,提高径流预报精度,从而能够增加植被变化径流响应估算结果的准确性。
This paper investigates the impacts of plantation expansion or clearing and climate variability on streamflow using two approaches:the sensitivity-based approach (including a non-parametric model and six Budyko framework based models) and the hydrological modelling approach (using Xinanjiang and SIMHYD models) for three medium sized catchments, Crawford River, Darlot Creek and Tinana Creek in Australia. The main focus and conclusions of this study are as follows:
(1) Changing trend is one of the most important indexes which reflects changes of different elements in catchment hydrological recycle. The Mann-Kendall trend test, Spearman's trend test and linear regression trend test are used for testing changing trend of precipitation, areal potential evapotranspiration and streamflow time series, respectively. The effects of vegetation cover change and climate variability on streamflow are evaluated qualitatively. Then, the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) method is introduced to display frequency changes of streamflow between pre-plantation and post-plantation period. Comparison of FDCs in the annual streamflow from different periods indicates the important role of vegetation cover change.
(2) It is a focus of study on effects of forest vegetation cover change on streamflow in modern forest hydrology research. The most basic and reliable approach for researching hydrological response to vegetation cover change is the catchment experiment. After analyzing changes of hydrological and meteorological elements, a framework for separating effects of vegetation cover change and climate variability on streamflow is developed using single catchment experiment. The sensitivity-based approach(including a non-parametric model and six Budyko framework based models) are used to estimate effects of climate change on streamflow. According to reliability and consistency analysis for each approaches, effects of vegetation cover change on streamflow are calculated correspondingly. There are several defects in the single catchment experiment such as streamflow measurement with long-period and high cost of managing the catchment. In order to overcome these problems, a reverse scenario is proposed in this paper to estimate effects of clearing on streamflow comparing to the plantation catchments experiments.
(3) This paper presents a widely used statistical approach, the sensitivity based approach (using seven methods, one non-parametric method, six Budyko-framework based methods) to separating the effects of vegetation cover change and climate variability on streamflow. However, these statistical methods can only estimated the effects on annual time scale. For the sake of learning the effects of vegetation change and climate variability on streamflow process on daily, monthly time scale, two conceptual rainfall-runoff models, Xinanjiang model and SIMHYD model are used. Generalized Pattern Search (GPS) algorithm is introduced to calibrated models. The hydrological modelling is undertaken in two ways. Firstly, the two hydrological models are calibrated using streamflow data from the pre-plantation period and the calibrated parameters are used to simulate runoff for the post-plantation period. The difference between the observed and model simulated runoff for the post-plantation period is used to quantify the impacts of the increase in plantations and climate variability between the two periods. Secondly, the two hydrological models are calibrated using streamflow data from the post-plantation period and the calibrated parameters are used to simulate runoff for the pre-plantation period. The difference between the observed and model simulated runoff for the pre-plantation period is used to quantify the impacts of the reduction in plantations (considered equivalent to plantation'clearing'in this study) and climate variability between the two periods.
(4) Hydrological cycle can be significantly influenced by vegetation cover change through affecting soil water storage, canopy interception and evapotranspiration. However, vegetation processes are seldom considered in traditional lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models. This paper incorporates the remotely sensed AVHRR-LAI data into Xinanjiang model and SIMHYD model by way of revising the original three-layer and one-layer evapotranspiration submodel using Penman-Monteith equation, respectively. The so called Xinanjiang-ET model and SIMHYD-ET model are calibrated and validated using streamflow data from Crawford River catchment. The results indicate that the calibrations as well as validations for the revised versions of Xinanjiang model and SIMHYD model can be improved by considering remotely sensed AVHRR-LAI data.
(1)趋势性是反映流域水文循环过程中各要素总体变化情况的重要指标。针对不同气候区3个森林试验流域,采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验、Spearman秩次相关检验和线性回归检验方法分别对降雨、气温、区域潜在蒸散发(APET)和径流系列多年变化的趋势性进行识别,定性分析了植被变化和气候变异对流域径流变化的影响。采用流量历时曲线(FDC)方法较直观地描绘了各流域植被变化前后径流频率的变化,进一步分析了植被变化对径流变化的影响。
(2)森林植被变化对区域径流量的影响是现代森林水文学研究的核心问题之一。试验流域方法是研究植被变化水文响应最基础、最可靠的方法。在水文气象要素变化分析的前提下,以单一流域试验方法为基础构建划分植被变化与气候变化径流响应的研究框架。通过采用多种基于统计学的气候弹性系数方法(非参数方法和Budyko-framework方法)单独量化气候变化对各流域年径流量的影响,比较分析各种方法估算结果的可靠性和一致性,从而对植被变化影响量作出定量估计。针对单一流域试验方法运行周期长,管理费用昂贵的缺点,提出在造林试验流域运用反过程伐林假设情景,以拓宽单一试验,流域方法的适用性,并从不同角度验证植被变化影响量与气候变化影响量结果的准确性。
(3)针对气候弹性系数方法在划分植被、气候变化径流响应时只能得到多年平均估算结果且计算时间尺度过于单一的缺点,采用中国的新安江模型和澳大利亚的SIMHYD模型在日尺度上模拟植被变化前后各流域的径流过程,进而估算植被变化影响下多年平均径流变化量。在前文划分试验流域基准期的前提下,采用广义模式搜索(GPS)算法对两个模型的参数进行自动优选,然后将率定好的模型应用于预测期以模拟植被变化(造林和“伐林”)对径流过程的影响。通过单独量化植被变化的径流响应,进而确定气候变化对径流变化影响的贡献。将模型方法划分植被变化与气候变化影响量的结果与气候弹性系数方法所得结果进行比较,验证本文划分各因素影响量方法的可靠性。
(4)植被覆盖通过影响土壤蓄水、冠层截留和蒸散发等过程进而对流域水文循环产生重大影响。针对概念性降雨径流模型较少考虑植被变化过程的不足,本文采用基于AVHRR遥感叶面积指数的Penman-Monteith蒸散发模型对原新安江模型的三层蒸散发模块和SIMHYD模型的一层蒸散发模块进行改进,从而将遥感植被信息加入到概念性降雨径流模型中。利用Crawford River流域水文气象数据对改进的模型(新安江一ET模型和SIMHYD-ET模型)进行率定和验证,研究结果表明,改进的模型与原模型相比,其率定和验证精度均有一定提高,说明将植被信息加入到概念性降雨径流模型中能够改善模型模拟性能,提高径流预报精度,从而能够增加植被变化径流响应估算结果的准确性。
This paper investigates the impacts of plantation expansion or clearing and climate variability on streamflow using two approaches:the sensitivity-based approach (including a non-parametric model and six Budyko framework based models) and the hydrological modelling approach (using Xinanjiang and SIMHYD models) for three medium sized catchments, Crawford River, Darlot Creek and Tinana Creek in Australia. The main focus and conclusions of this study are as follows:
(1) Changing trend is one of the most important indexes which reflects changes of different elements in catchment hydrological recycle. The Mann-Kendall trend test, Spearman's trend test and linear regression trend test are used for testing changing trend of precipitation, areal potential evapotranspiration and streamflow time series, respectively. The effects of vegetation cover change and climate variability on streamflow are evaluated qualitatively. Then, the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) method is introduced to display frequency changes of streamflow between pre-plantation and post-plantation period. Comparison of FDCs in the annual streamflow from different periods indicates the important role of vegetation cover change.
(2) It is a focus of study on effects of forest vegetation cover change on streamflow in modern forest hydrology research. The most basic and reliable approach for researching hydrological response to vegetation cover change is the catchment experiment. After analyzing changes of hydrological and meteorological elements, a framework for separating effects of vegetation cover change and climate variability on streamflow is developed using single catchment experiment. The sensitivity-based approach(including a non-parametric model and six Budyko framework based models) are used to estimate effects of climate change on streamflow. According to reliability and consistency analysis for each approaches, effects of vegetation cover change on streamflow are calculated correspondingly. There are several defects in the single catchment experiment such as streamflow measurement with long-period and high cost of managing the catchment. In order to overcome these problems, a reverse scenario is proposed in this paper to estimate effects of clearing on streamflow comparing to the plantation catchments experiments.
(3) This paper presents a widely used statistical approach, the sensitivity based approach (using seven methods, one non-parametric method, six Budyko-framework based methods) to separating the effects of vegetation cover change and climate variability on streamflow. However, these statistical methods can only estimated the effects on annual time scale. For the sake of learning the effects of vegetation change and climate variability on streamflow process on daily, monthly time scale, two conceptual rainfall-runoff models, Xinanjiang model and SIMHYD model are used. Generalized Pattern Search (GPS) algorithm is introduced to calibrated models. The hydrological modelling is undertaken in two ways. Firstly, the two hydrological models are calibrated using streamflow data from the pre-plantation period and the calibrated parameters are used to simulate runoff for the post-plantation period. The difference between the observed and model simulated runoff for the post-plantation period is used to quantify the impacts of the increase in plantations and climate variability between the two periods. Secondly, the two hydrological models are calibrated using streamflow data from the post-plantation period and the calibrated parameters are used to simulate runoff for the pre-plantation period. The difference between the observed and model simulated runoff for the pre-plantation period is used to quantify the impacts of the reduction in plantations (considered equivalent to plantation'clearing'in this study) and climate variability between the two periods.
(4) Hydrological cycle can be significantly influenced by vegetation cover change through affecting soil water storage, canopy interception and evapotranspiration. However, vegetation processes are seldom considered in traditional lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models. This paper incorporates the remotely sensed AVHRR-LAI data into Xinanjiang model and SIMHYD model by way of revising the original three-layer and one-layer evapotranspiration submodel using Penman-Monteith equation, respectively. The so called Xinanjiang-ET model and SIMHYD-ET model are calibrated and validated using streamflow data from Crawford River catchment. The results indicate that the calibrations as well as validations for the revised versions of Xinanjiang model and SIMHYD model can be improved by considering remotely sensed AVHRR-LAI data.
引文
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