滦河流域内蒙段径流插补预测分析及径流变化影响评价研究
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摘要
河川径流是水循环的基本环节,又是水量平衡的基本要素,是可供人类长期开发利用的水资源,其变化运动规律直接影响着人类的生存和社会经济的发展。本文针对滦河流域内蒙段水资源开发利用情况以及存在的水资源问题,将地质统计学理论、传统的水文气象统计分析方法以及SWAT水文模型分别应用于滦河内蒙段径流缺测资料的插补预测和水文气象变量的时空变异分析、水文气象变量时间特征分析以及河川径流变化影响评价的分析研究中。深入综合地开展这几方面的研究对流域水资源的可持续开发利用具有重要的意义。
本论文的主要研究内容及成果如下:
(1)首先对地质统计学理论中月尺度的协克立格模型和年尺度的基于孔穴效应的时空协克立格模型进行了研究,应用这两个模型分别对外沟门站2001-2009年缺测月、年径流进行了插补延长,结果表明两种模型的插补结果具有一定的精度,这为地质统计学在水文变量插补延长上的应用提供了比较好的研究方法。然后应用传统的水文气象变量统计分析方法对径流的年际、年代及季节变化、年内分配进行了分析。
(2)应用地质统计学理论中的多时段泛克立格模型对研究区降水的空间变异性进行了分析,并对降水进行了空间插值研究。结果显示多时段泛克立格模型与以往人们常用的克立格模型的区别在于,它考虑了水文气象变量的时空随机特性,能够充分地利用变量在时间上的长期观测资料,为测站稀疏地区水文气象变量的空间变异分析以及空间插值提供了一种有效的研究手段,这也是该法的优点所在。然后应用传统的统计分析方法对降水量、气温和蒸发量的年际、年代及季节变化、年内变化进行了具体分析。最后用复回归模型分析了流域河川径流与降水和气温之间的关系,得出径流与降水相关性较好,与气温的相关性次之。
(3)运用SWAT模型分析研究了气候变化和人类活动对流域河川径流年代、季节以及年内分配的影响。结果表明流域河川径流受人类活动影响要大于气候变化的影响,其中人类活动的间接影响要大于直接影响。
(4)运用SWAT模型对未来气候变化和土地利用变化情景下流域河川径流的可能变化情况进行了分析,得出径流对降水的敏感性要大于对气温的敏感性,在假定气候情景下未来90年流域径流量将有所增加;研究区不同土地利用类型产流量的排序为沙地或裸地>耕地>林地>草地。
Runoff is not only the basic link of water cycle but also the basic factors of water balance, runoff is the water resources that can be chronically utilized by human, its changes directly impact the human existence and the social economy development. This paper consider the utilization and the open question of water resources in the Luanhe Basin in Inner Mongolia, using the geostatistics、hydro-meterological statistical analysis method and SWAT model to respectively study the interpolation of missed hydraulic variable and time-space variance analysis、the time character analysis of hydro-meterological variable and the impact analysis on runoff changes. It’s significant to study these questions which could provide scientific support for sustainable utilization of water resources in the basin.
Main achievements of this study are:
(1) Firstly applying the monthly scale Cokriging method and annual scale hole-effectiveness time-space Cokriging method to respectively interpolate the missed monthly runoff and annual runoff data during 2001-2009 for Waigoumen station, and the interpolation results are reasonable by identification, this two method provide a better research technique for interpolating hydraulic data applying the geostatistics. Then analyze the annual changes、seasonal changes and month distribution changes of runoff applying the hydro-meterological statistical analysis method.
(2) Applying the universal kriging method with multiple time period to study the spatial variability and the spatial interpolation of precipitation. And the result shows that compared with other common kriging methods, the merits of the universal kriging method with multiple time period is that this method consider the time-space stochastic characteristic of hydro-meterological variable, can well used the long-term observation data, and provide a better research technique for spatial variability and spatial interpolation for hydro-meterological variable in the region with sparse stations. Then analyze the annual changes、seasonal changes and month distribution changes of precipitation、air temperature and evaporation applying the hydro-meterological statistical analysis method. Finally analyze the relationship between the runoff and the air temperature and evaporation with multiple regression method, and conclude that the correlation between runoff and precipitation is better than the correlation between runoff and evaporation.
(3) The SWAT hydrological model was employed to analyze the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff. The result shows that the impact of human activities is larger than climate change, and the indirect human activities are the main reasons for runoff reduction.
(4) The SWAT model was employed to analyze the potential change of runoff on the future climate change and different land use scene. The result shows that the sensitivity of runoff on precipitation is larger than on air temperature, the runoff will increase in the future 90 years under the presumable climate scene. And the sequence of runoff yield in the region for different land use type is: sand or nudation>cultivated land>forest land>grassland.
本论文的主要研究内容及成果如下:
(1)首先对地质统计学理论中月尺度的协克立格模型和年尺度的基于孔穴效应的时空协克立格模型进行了研究,应用这两个模型分别对外沟门站2001-2009年缺测月、年径流进行了插补延长,结果表明两种模型的插补结果具有一定的精度,这为地质统计学在水文变量插补延长上的应用提供了比较好的研究方法。然后应用传统的水文气象变量统计分析方法对径流的年际、年代及季节变化、年内分配进行了分析。
(2)应用地质统计学理论中的多时段泛克立格模型对研究区降水的空间变异性进行了分析,并对降水进行了空间插值研究。结果显示多时段泛克立格模型与以往人们常用的克立格模型的区别在于,它考虑了水文气象变量的时空随机特性,能够充分地利用变量在时间上的长期观测资料,为测站稀疏地区水文气象变量的空间变异分析以及空间插值提供了一种有效的研究手段,这也是该法的优点所在。然后应用传统的统计分析方法对降水量、气温和蒸发量的年际、年代及季节变化、年内变化进行了具体分析。最后用复回归模型分析了流域河川径流与降水和气温之间的关系,得出径流与降水相关性较好,与气温的相关性次之。
(3)运用SWAT模型分析研究了气候变化和人类活动对流域河川径流年代、季节以及年内分配的影响。结果表明流域河川径流受人类活动影响要大于气候变化的影响,其中人类活动的间接影响要大于直接影响。
(4)运用SWAT模型对未来气候变化和土地利用变化情景下流域河川径流的可能变化情况进行了分析,得出径流对降水的敏感性要大于对气温的敏感性,在假定气候情景下未来90年流域径流量将有所增加;研究区不同土地利用类型产流量的排序为沙地或裸地>耕地>林地>草地。
Runoff is not only the basic link of water cycle but also the basic factors of water balance, runoff is the water resources that can be chronically utilized by human, its changes directly impact the human existence and the social economy development. This paper consider the utilization and the open question of water resources in the Luanhe Basin in Inner Mongolia, using the geostatistics、hydro-meterological statistical analysis method and SWAT model to respectively study the interpolation of missed hydraulic variable and time-space variance analysis、the time character analysis of hydro-meterological variable and the impact analysis on runoff changes. It’s significant to study these questions which could provide scientific support for sustainable utilization of water resources in the basin.
Main achievements of this study are:
(1) Firstly applying the monthly scale Cokriging method and annual scale hole-effectiveness time-space Cokriging method to respectively interpolate the missed monthly runoff and annual runoff data during 2001-2009 for Waigoumen station, and the interpolation results are reasonable by identification, this two method provide a better research technique for interpolating hydraulic data applying the geostatistics. Then analyze the annual changes、seasonal changes and month distribution changes of runoff applying the hydro-meterological statistical analysis method.
(2) Applying the universal kriging method with multiple time period to study the spatial variability and the spatial interpolation of precipitation. And the result shows that compared with other common kriging methods, the merits of the universal kriging method with multiple time period is that this method consider the time-space stochastic characteristic of hydro-meterological variable, can well used the long-term observation data, and provide a better research technique for spatial variability and spatial interpolation for hydro-meterological variable in the region with sparse stations. Then analyze the annual changes、seasonal changes and month distribution changes of precipitation、air temperature and evaporation applying the hydro-meterological statistical analysis method. Finally analyze the relationship between the runoff and the air temperature and evaporation with multiple regression method, and conclude that the correlation between runoff and precipitation is better than the correlation between runoff and evaporation.
(3) The SWAT hydrological model was employed to analyze the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff. The result shows that the impact of human activities is larger than climate change, and the indirect human activities are the main reasons for runoff reduction.
(4) The SWAT model was employed to analyze the potential change of runoff on the future climate change and different land use scene. The result shows that the sensitivity of runoff on precipitation is larger than on air temperature, the runoff will increase in the future 90 years under the presumable climate scene. And the sequence of runoff yield in the region for different land use type is: sand or nudation>cultivated land>forest land>grassland.
引文
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