森林资源资产评估专家系统研究
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摘要
森林资源资产化管理是实现林业经济可持续发展、深化林业经济体制改革和建立现代林业企业制度的必然要求。它是以价值量为核心的管理,是森林资源资产实物量的拓展和延伸,将森林资源实物量管理转化为森林资源资产化管理、将事业型运作机制转变为经营型运作机制,通过经济手段实现森林资源的良性循环、加强森林资源监管的重要环节。而要实现真正意义上的森林资源资产化管理,关键是森林资源资产价值量的评估。
森林资源资产评估是根据特定的目的、遵循社会客观经济规律和公允的原则,按照国家法定的标准和程序,运用科学可行的方法,以统一的货币单位,对具有资产属性的森林资源实体以至预期收益进行的评定估算。它是评估者根据被评估森林资源资产的实际情况,所掌握的市场动态资料和对现在与未来进行多因素分析的基础上,对森林资源资产所具有的市场价值进行评定估算。
本研究以湖南省国营黄丰桥林场为对象,首次提出将专家系统的理论和方法应用于森林资源资产评估工作中,综合运用专家系统知识和森林资源资产评估技术,构建国营林场或县级区域的森林资源资产评估专家系统,具有重要的理论和实践价值。提出了以中国森林资源清查体系,特别是二类资源清查系统为基础,构建中国森林资源核算与绿色GDP系统的设想。
研究中分别优势树种(组)建立了生长动态预测模型,提出了利用连年生长量模型实现各优势树种(组)的主要测树因子的更新。首次提出了林分胸高断面积连年生长量G的预测模型:G=2 D~*G/D;首次对9种林分蓄积量测定方法进行了对比分析,结果表明:在没有适用的测树用表或数学模型的情况下,最精确的测定方法是等株径级标准木法;在有适用的测树用表或数学模型的前提下,最精确的测定方法是形高表法。
基于森林资源资产评估方法和森林资源规划设计调查小班数据库,建立了森林资源资产实物量的分类系统,提出了相应的分类指标体系。改进了现行的森林资源资产评估方法,指出重置成本法仅适用于间伐前的幼林林的林木资产评估;收获现值法则适用于间伐后的中幼林的林木资产评估,提出了楠竹林资产评估的新方法;同时提出了国营林场各种森林资源类型的资产评估方法,并建立了对应的资产评估技术经济指标体系。
以湖南省森林资源规划设计调查数据处理系统为基础,将森林资源资产评估方法与过程等专家知识建立专家知识库,编辑推理机,建立森林资源资产评估专家系统,解决了大面积森林资源资产评估的问题,使得构建中国森林资源核算与绿色GDP系统成为可能。
It is very necessary to implement capitalization management on forest resources for forest sustainable development, strengthen the innovation on forestry economy mechanism and establish corp. system of modem forestry, v/hich is mainly based on the amount of value, and changes the enterprise operating mechanism into the management operating mechanism, and achieves the benign circulation of forest resources and strengthens the forest resource monitoring and management by economy. But to really implement the forest resource capitalization management, where the shoe pinches is the capital value evaluation of forest resources.According to the national criterions and programs on law, and based on the especial intent, and keeping to social impersonality disciplinarian on economy and public principia, using feasible scientific methods and uniform money unit, forest resource capital evaluation assesses and estimates the forest resource entity that has capital attribute and anticipation income of it. This evaluation is the estimating and assessing of the market value of forest resource, which according to the state of the evaluated forest resource capital, and the metabolic conditions on market, and based on the analysis of multi-factor presently or in the future.Researching on the national Forestry Center Huangfeng Bridge in Hunan province, firstly putting forward using the methods and theories of expert system into the plan of forest resource capital evaluation, and combining the knowledge of expert system with the technology of forest resource capital evaluation, designs and establishes the forest resource capital evaluation on nation forestry center or county level, which has important value on theory and practice. This paper brings forward conceiving and establishing China forest resource estimate and green GDP system, which based on China forest resource inventory system, especially the forest management inventory.This paper has established dynamic forecast model on the grcwth of different dominant trees (group), and putted forward using successive growth model to actualize the update of all main measure factors on different dominant trees (group). This paper firstly brings forward the forecast model of the successive growth (⊿G)of breast-height basal area: ⊿ G=2 ⊿ D*G/D; Firstly compares and analyzes the methods on 9 kinds of trees, under the condition of no appropriate measure tables or mathematics models, puts forward that the method of equal trunk of trees diameter class on model tree is the most accurate method; and on account that there are appropriate measure tables or mathematics models, the factor-height table method is most accurate.Based on forest resource capital evaluation plan and the date base of sub compartment on forest resource programming and designing inventory, establishes the classification system on forest resource capital, and also provides reciprocal criterions on
森林资源资产评估是根据特定的目的、遵循社会客观经济规律和公允的原则,按照国家法定的标准和程序,运用科学可行的方法,以统一的货币单位,对具有资产属性的森林资源实体以至预期收益进行的评定估算。它是评估者根据被评估森林资源资产的实际情况,所掌握的市场动态资料和对现在与未来进行多因素分析的基础上,对森林资源资产所具有的市场价值进行评定估算。
本研究以湖南省国营黄丰桥林场为对象,首次提出将专家系统的理论和方法应用于森林资源资产评估工作中,综合运用专家系统知识和森林资源资产评估技术,构建国营林场或县级区域的森林资源资产评估专家系统,具有重要的理论和实践价值。提出了以中国森林资源清查体系,特别是二类资源清查系统为基础,构建中国森林资源核算与绿色GDP系统的设想。
研究中分别优势树种(组)建立了生长动态预测模型,提出了利用连年生长量模型实现各优势树种(组)的主要测树因子的更新。首次提出了林分胸高断面积连年生长量G的预测模型:G=2 D~*G/D;首次对9种林分蓄积量测定方法进行了对比分析,结果表明:在没有适用的测树用表或数学模型的情况下,最精确的测定方法是等株径级标准木法;在有适用的测树用表或数学模型的前提下,最精确的测定方法是形高表法。
基于森林资源资产评估方法和森林资源规划设计调查小班数据库,建立了森林资源资产实物量的分类系统,提出了相应的分类指标体系。改进了现行的森林资源资产评估方法,指出重置成本法仅适用于间伐前的幼林林的林木资产评估;收获现值法则适用于间伐后的中幼林的林木资产评估,提出了楠竹林资产评估的新方法;同时提出了国营林场各种森林资源类型的资产评估方法,并建立了对应的资产评估技术经济指标体系。
以湖南省森林资源规划设计调查数据处理系统为基础,将森林资源资产评估方法与过程等专家知识建立专家知识库,编辑推理机,建立森林资源资产评估专家系统,解决了大面积森林资源资产评估的问题,使得构建中国森林资源核算与绿色GDP系统成为可能。
It is very necessary to implement capitalization management on forest resources for forest sustainable development, strengthen the innovation on forestry economy mechanism and establish corp. system of modem forestry, v/hich is mainly based on the amount of value, and changes the enterprise operating mechanism into the management operating mechanism, and achieves the benign circulation of forest resources and strengthens the forest resource monitoring and management by economy. But to really implement the forest resource capitalization management, where the shoe pinches is the capital value evaluation of forest resources.According to the national criterions and programs on law, and based on the especial intent, and keeping to social impersonality disciplinarian on economy and public principia, using feasible scientific methods and uniform money unit, forest resource capital evaluation assesses and estimates the forest resource entity that has capital attribute and anticipation income of it. This evaluation is the estimating and assessing of the market value of forest resource, which according to the state of the evaluated forest resource capital, and the metabolic conditions on market, and based on the analysis of multi-factor presently or in the future.Researching on the national Forestry Center Huangfeng Bridge in Hunan province, firstly putting forward using the methods and theories of expert system into the plan of forest resource capital evaluation, and combining the knowledge of expert system with the technology of forest resource capital evaluation, designs and establishes the forest resource capital evaluation on nation forestry center or county level, which has important value on theory and practice. This paper brings forward conceiving and establishing China forest resource estimate and green GDP system, which based on China forest resource inventory system, especially the forest management inventory.This paper has established dynamic forecast model on the grcwth of different dominant trees (group), and putted forward using successive growth model to actualize the update of all main measure factors on different dominant trees (group). This paper firstly brings forward the forecast model of the successive growth (⊿G)of breast-height basal area: ⊿ G=2 ⊿ D*G/D; Firstly compares and analyzes the methods on 9 kinds of trees, under the condition of no appropriate measure tables or mathematics models, puts forward that the method of equal trunk of trees diameter class on model tree is the most accurate method; and on account that there are appropriate measure tables or mathematics models, the factor-height table method is most accurate.Based on forest resource capital evaluation plan and the date base of sub compartment on forest resource programming and designing inventory, establishes the classification system on forest resource capital, and also provides reciprocal criterions on
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