平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文气象预报模型研究
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摘要
本文建立了平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文预报模型,并利用苏北里下河平原河网区的水文气象资料进行模拟验证;再结合气象模式,实现了平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文预报模型与气象模式的耦合;在此基础上进行了业务平台的开发。本文得出以下几点结论:
(1)全面系统地考虑了单元划分,产汇流的模拟,边界、河道、堰闸等处理,以及入河水量与水位变化的关系,建立了适合平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文预报模型。
(2)根据苏北里下河地区的区域特点,设置了水文模型各类参数。经过苏北里下河地区1980—1988年间共8场暴雨来进行率定,再选取苏北里下河地区1980—1988年间4次致洪暴雨(全局性暴雨、局地性暴雨、连续性暴雨和大暴雨)来进行模拟验证。结果表明:率定是水文预报模型模拟不可缺少的一部分。模型能够模拟实际洪水,具有很高的精度和很强的实用性。
(3)基于新一代中尺度天气预报模式WRF和所建的平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文预报模型,利用计算水面蒸发的彭曼公式,实现WRF与水文预报模型耦合,建立起平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文气象预报模型。在苏北里下河地区对其进行了验证,结果表明:模型预报过程与实测过程非常吻合,具有很高的精度和很强的实用性,这标志着平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文气象预报模型最终成功实现。
(4)对平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文气象预报模型进行业务平台开发,充分发挥了Fortran在数学与工程计算方面的优点,同时集合VB具有图形处理能力强和人机交互界面的特点,实现混合编程。再利用VB接口方便的优点,集成GIS组件MapObjects和VB自身的控件,开发出所需的直观和具体的可视化图表。该平台的开发大大增强了水文气象预报模型的实用性,降低了预报员的工作强度,提高了劳动效率。
This paper establishes the hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region,and simulation verification is done on it with hydro-meteorological data of Lixiahe region in Northern Jiangsu; Combined with meteorological models,it is realized that the hydro-meteorological forecasting model is coupled;Based on this,this paper develops operational platform. This paper draws the following conclusions:
1) Through the comprehensive and systematic consideration from the unit,the simulated runoff,borders,watercourse,weir gates,and the relationship between the water quantity and water level changes,this paper establishes the hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region.
2) According to regional characteristics of Lixiahe region in Northern Jiangsu, this paper sets up various parameters of hydrological forecasting model.By using 8 torrential rains of Lixiahe region for 1980-88,hydrological forecasting model is calibrated.Then,this paper selects 4 flood-causing torrential rains(overall rain,local rain,continuous rain and heavy rain) to verify hydrological forecasting model.The results show that:the model calibration is an indispensable part.Model for simulating the practical flood has high precision and strong practicability.
3) Based on the new generation mesoscale weather prediction model(WRF) and hydrological forecasting model,and using Penman equation for the calculation of water surface evaporation,this paper realizes the coupling between WRF and the-hydrological forecasting model.The hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region is established.Then,it is verified in Lixiahe region.The results show that:forecast value and measured value of water level is consistent.The model has high precision and strong practicability, which shows the ultimate achievement of the hydro-meteorological forecasting model.
4) This paper develops operational platform of the hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region. In the development process,hybrid programming gives fully the advantages of Fortran in the calculation of math and engineering and the characteristics of VB in graphics processing capability and human-computer interaction.According to the advantages of VB interface,operational platform integrates GIS component (MapObjects) and VB own ActiveX control to develop the intuitive and concrete visual graph.The platform development greatly enhances the practicality of the hydro-meteorological forecasting model,to reduce the work intensity of forecasters, and to improve labor efficiency.
(1)全面系统地考虑了单元划分,产汇流的模拟,边界、河道、堰闸等处理,以及入河水量与水位变化的关系,建立了适合平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文预报模型。
(2)根据苏北里下河地区的区域特点,设置了水文模型各类参数。经过苏北里下河地区1980—1988年间共8场暴雨来进行率定,再选取苏北里下河地区1980—1988年间4次致洪暴雨(全局性暴雨、局地性暴雨、连续性暴雨和大暴雨)来进行模拟验证。结果表明:率定是水文预报模型模拟不可缺少的一部分。模型能够模拟实际洪水,具有很高的精度和很强的实用性。
(3)基于新一代中尺度天气预报模式WRF和所建的平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文预报模型,利用计算水面蒸发的彭曼公式,实现WRF与水文预报模型耦合,建立起平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文气象预报模型。在苏北里下河地区对其进行了验证,结果表明:模型预报过程与实测过程非常吻合,具有很高的精度和很强的实用性,这标志着平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文气象预报模型最终成功实现。
(4)对平原河网区暴雨致洪的水文气象预报模型进行业务平台开发,充分发挥了Fortran在数学与工程计算方面的优点,同时集合VB具有图形处理能力强和人机交互界面的特点,实现混合编程。再利用VB接口方便的优点,集成GIS组件MapObjects和VB自身的控件,开发出所需的直观和具体的可视化图表。该平台的开发大大增强了水文气象预报模型的实用性,降低了预报员的工作强度,提高了劳动效率。
This paper establishes the hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region,and simulation verification is done on it with hydro-meteorological data of Lixiahe region in Northern Jiangsu; Combined with meteorological models,it is realized that the hydro-meteorological forecasting model is coupled;Based on this,this paper develops operational platform. This paper draws the following conclusions:
1) Through the comprehensive and systematic consideration from the unit,the simulated runoff,borders,watercourse,weir gates,and the relationship between the water quantity and water level changes,this paper establishes the hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region.
2) According to regional characteristics of Lixiahe region in Northern Jiangsu, this paper sets up various parameters of hydrological forecasting model.By using 8 torrential rains of Lixiahe region for 1980-88,hydrological forecasting model is calibrated.Then,this paper selects 4 flood-causing torrential rains(overall rain,local rain,continuous rain and heavy rain) to verify hydrological forecasting model.The results show that:the model calibration is an indispensable part.Model for simulating the practical flood has high precision and strong practicability.
3) Based on the new generation mesoscale weather prediction model(WRF) and hydrological forecasting model,and using Penman equation for the calculation of water surface evaporation,this paper realizes the coupling between WRF and the-hydrological forecasting model.The hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region is established.Then,it is verified in Lixiahe region.The results show that:forecast value and measured value of water level is consistent.The model has high precision and strong practicability, which shows the ultimate achievement of the hydro-meteorological forecasting model.
4) This paper develops operational platform of the hydro-meteorological forecasting model of flood caused by torrential rain in the plain river network region. In the development process,hybrid programming gives fully the advantages of Fortran in the calculation of math and engineering and the characteristics of VB in graphics processing capability and human-computer interaction.According to the advantages of VB interface,operational platform integrates GIS component (MapObjects) and VB own ActiveX control to develop the intuitive and concrete visual graph.The platform development greatly enhances the practicality of the hydro-meteorological forecasting model,to reduce the work intensity of forecasters, and to improve labor efficiency.
引文
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