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改革开放以来泛长江三角洲空间结构演变研究
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摘要
长江三角洲经过30多年的高速发展,导致土地、淡水、人力、能源等资源供给紧张,出现了诸如工业增长幅度回落,商务成本不断提高,经济效益明显下滑等问题。为此,需寻求成本更低、空间更大的经济腹地,以实现产业转移和产业结构升级。新形势下长三角地区变得更加开放,合作范围更加广泛,以江、浙、沪、皖三省一市组成的泛化下的长三角日趋形成。本文正是通过对泛长三角改革开放以来经济、可达性和城市场的空间结构演变研究,探求其演变规律、作用因素和空间特征,从而为泛长三角空间结构整合及发展战略提供科学依据,最终实现泛长三角区域经济一体化。
     首先从省域、市域和市区三个层面分析了泛长三角不同尺度下的经济发展过程。研究发现,四省(市)在经济综合发展、投资发展、消费发展和出口发展方面各有所长。市域经济主要从发展差异的数理特性和空间结构作分析,其中数理特性主要从绝对差异、相对差异和差异程度,空间结构从极化格局、离散格局和收敛发散格局各三个方面研究。结果发现,绝对差异扩大,表现为三级抬高过程,并且逐级加速扩大差距;相对差异总体上呈减小趋势;差异程度演变趋势类似于相对差异,经历三个阶段即先降后升再降。泛长三角区域经济发展不平衡,归根到产业原因上主要是由第二、三产业的发展差异过大引起的,早期第二产业对推动基尼系数的抬升作用最大,九十年代中后期第三产业渐渐占据重要的地位,至21世纪初期开始有取代第二产业之势态。研究表明,泛长三角出现空间极化和空间离散主要由GDP前10位城市和后10位城市作用所致;由于经济发展速度不同导致各城市分别呈向上发散、向上收敛、向下发散和向下收敛。城市市区经济综合实力指数一直呈上扬趋势,由于经济基础不同和市场经济体制的不断完善,市区综合实力空间格局上经历了由相对平衡到极化到趋扩散过程。
     运用GIS分析技术和哈弗模型等方法从时间可达性(包括全域时间、局域时间、邻域时间)、费用可达性(包括基于最短路径的费用可达性即最短费用、不计时间不计路程的费用可达性即最小费用)、吸引机会和综合可达性共计四个层面七个角度研究了42个城市可达性的空间结构及其演化过程。全域时间可达性呈核心-边缘结构,且可达性中心有向东和向北调整态势;局域时间可达性地区差异较大,可达性较好的城市主要分布于长江沿岸,而较差的城市主要分布于泛长三角外围;邻域时间可达性分别从邻域可达性值与所辖行政区面积和Voronoi面之比将其划分为严重萎缩型、急剧扩张型、基本稳定型、向上浮动型和向下浮动型五种类型;最短费用逐渐减少,空间上呈现核心-边缘结构,内核有南移的趋势;最小费用呈现下降到上升的走势,有强烈的铁路网络指向特征,分布由不均向均衡演变;吸引机会指数较强的城市大都分布于长江沿岸和环杭州湾地区,外围城市吸引指数有降低的趋势,首位城市异位,但吸引中心并没有改变:综合可达性经历了相对均衡到极化再到扩散的演化过程,大体上呈核心-边缘结构,南部可达性始终最小,应该重视该区域新增长极的布点,有利于浙南的发展,五类圈层构成的核心-边缘结构在泛长三角东部被“切断”,因此加强安徽区域交通可达性及经济的提升是改善整个泛长三角地区可达性的主要举措。
     通过构建场对数扩散效应模型测算城市场空间结构及演变,主要从城市影响区空间形态、城市影响区面积和城市场扩散值三方面演变作分析。分析发现,主体城市影响区沿江沿湾分布,空间形态经历了“之”到“几”到“皮皮虾”再到“鳊鱼”状的空间演变过程。城市场五类影响区中场强极强区、场强较强区、场强一般区面积增大,场强较弱区和场强极弱区面积减小;各省域影响区面积增大不一、增幅各异;各市域影响区布局不均,影响区面积大的城市多分布在江苏省和浙江省,而影响区面积较小的多分布在安徽省。城市场扩散值主要从城市节点(点)、扩散通道(线)和城市区面(面)三个方面进行分析。城市节点场强增大,变化幅度逐年减小,空间布局不均匀,长三角地区城市节点场强强度一般大于其外围城市;区域中场扩散值演变最显著出现在新的扩散通道上;扩散值在区域面上的演变表现为整个区域场强增强,场强强度演变地域差异较大,沿江和沿湾地区扩散值的高值都要高于其他地域。之后,从地理区位、资源禀赋、城市化等七个角度以及交通干线的建设分别分析了城市综合实力和扩散通道两大方面因素对城市场空间结构演变的作用。
     依据区域空间结构演化理论和核心-边缘理论,并通过对泛长三角地区改革开放以来城市场空间结构演变特征分析,发现泛长三角经济区空间结构演化大致经历了行政中心孕育发展、行政中心极化发展、点轴扩散发展、网络化过渡发展和复合式核心-边缘结构形成五个阶段。在此基础上,结合区域空间结构要素的科学含义,从泛长三角空间结构演变特征中提炼出该地区的五种区域空间结构类型,分别是疏点类型、散块类型、条带类型、团块类型和板块类型。
     依据泛长三角经济、交通可达性、城市场空间结构演变规律和作用因素尤其是2010年城市场空间结构,本着“以点建轴,以轴布面”的思想,对泛长三角城市节点、产业发展轴线和产业城市群分别进行了空间整合。构建了由沿海、沿江、沪-宁-合、沪-杭-衢共同组成一个犹如“发梳”型一级产业发展轴;在“发梳”一级轴线框架下,把二级中心城市南京、杭州、合肥、苏州和宁波作经济扩散源,以此建构二级产业发展轴线。在泛长三角场强空间结构的核心区(内核区)、邻接区和外缘区基础上,把泛长三角城市经济区分为内核城市群、邻接城市群和外缘城市群三类型。进一步,为实现泛长三角区域一体化提出了区域统筹和城乡统筹协调发展等相关对策以及安徽省承接长三角产业转移的必要措施。
Something happens to the Yangtze River Delta that resources such as land, water, manpower, energy supply tension after more than30years of rapid development of the Yangtze River Delta and to industrial growth rate coming down, business costs rising, economic benefit declining significantly. Consequently, it is done by seeking economic hinterland of lower cost and larger space to accomplish industrial transfer and upgrade and to adjust economic structure. Under the new situation the Yangtze River Delta has become more open and widespread cooperation and generalization of the Yangtze River Delta consisting of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui, increasingly forming. Purpose of the thesis is to search for their evolvement regulations, mechanism and the spatial characteristics based on the study of economy, accessibility and spatial structure evolution of city field of the Pan Yangtze River Delta since the Chinese reform and opening-up to provide scientific basis for the optimization and integration of the spatial structure and strategy for economic development of the Pan Yangtze River Delta and to realize economic integration of the Pan Yangtze River Delta.
     The first, we analyze the process of economic development in different scope from provincial, city, urban districts. The results show that each has his merits in the integrative development of areal economy, investment, consumption, export of four provinces. The thesis studies the mathematical characteristics of city including the absolute disparity (Standard Deviation), relative disparity(Coefficient of Variation), degree of disparity(Gini Coefficient)and space pattern including polarization pattern (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and absolute concentration), discrete pattern(absolute discreation), pattern of the convergence and divergence of the difference of municipal economic development. The result is that the absolute disparity is widening characterized by three-level high jumping and speeding up the expansion gap step by step. Coefficient of Variation is decreasing. The evolution trend of Gini Coefficient is similar to Coefficient of Variation. It has gone through three stages which is decline-ascend-decline. Economy of the Pan Yangtze River Delta develops extremely imbalance. The chief cause of the imbalance is that the second and third industries development disparity is too big. Early secondary industries play the most important role for lifting Gini coefficient. During period of middle and late of the90s of the20th century the tertiary industry gradually occupies a very important position. In the beginning of the21st century the tertiary industry replaces secondary industry. The research indicates that the Pan Yangtze River Delta takes on space polarization and space discretation which is credited to the top10cities and the bottom10cities of GDP. Because of differences of speed of economic development it leads to every city taking on upward divergence, upward convergence, down divergence, down convergence. Because of different economic basis and the constant perfection of the socialist market economy, the index of comprehensive economic capabilities of urban districts are on the rise and its spatial pattern evolves from relative balance, polarization, to diffusion.
     We research the spatial pattern and its evolution of accessibility of42cities with different aspects using space analysis technology of GIS and Hafu model in time accessibility including the whole region time, local region time, plane of neighborhood region time, cost accessibility including cost accessibility based on the shortest path, cost accessibility based on not taking into account time and distance, attraction opportunity and comprehensive accessibility. Accessibility of the whole region time takes on core-periphery structure and the core of accessibility has the trend of transfer eastward and northward. Accessibility of local region is with great difference. The cities with better accessibility locate along the Yangtze River and ones with worse accessibility locate outskirts of the pan-Yangtze River Delta. The42cities of the pan-Yangtze River Delta were classified as five types including serious atrophy, the rapid expansion, basic stability, up-float, down-float in accordance with the ratios of accessibility of neighborhood region to district area and Voronoi area. Cost accessibility based on the shortest path gradually decreases and rises imbalancedly, take on core-periphery structure, the kernel has the southward trend. The least cost accessibility takes on decline and then ascend and characterized strongly by railway network. Its space pattern evolves from imbalance to balance. The cities with stronger attraction index distribute mostly along the Yangtze River and the Hangzhou Bay. Comprehensive accessibility evolves from a relatively balanced to polarization to diffusion taking on core-periphery structure. Southern accessibility of the pan-Yangtze River Delta is always the worst. Distribution of new regional poles should be payed attention to and it contributes to development of South of Zhejiang. The core-periphery structure compositing of five types of circles was cut off in the east of the pan-Yangtze River Delta. So we must strengthen traffic construction and boost the economy in Anhui to improve accessibility of the whole pan-Yangtze River Delta.
     By constructing a diffusion effect model of field logarithmic we calculat spatial structure of urban field and evolution to analyze spatial pattern of the urban effective region, area of urban effective regions and diffusion value of urban field. The results show that primary urban effective regions distribute along the Yangtze River Delta and Hangzhou Bay. They evolve from "之","几", pipi shrimp, to bream. Extremely area of strong field regions, stronger field regions and ordinary field regions decrease, area of weaker field regions and the weakest field regions rise in the five types of effective regions of urban field. The growth rate of area of effective regions in every province is uneven; areas of effective regions in every city are also uneven. The cities with bigger area of effective regions locate mostly in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the cities with smaller area locate mostly in Anhui. We analyze diffusion value of urban field from three respects of city nodes(points), diffusion paths(lines), urban regions(planes). Field strength of urban nodes is increasing, variation ratio is decreasing year by year and spatial distribution pattern is uneven, for example, urban field strength is usually stronger in the pan-Yangtze River Delta than its periphery cities. Evolution of diffusion value in new diffusion paths is the most significant in regional field. Evolution of diffusion value of urban effective regions in every region is that field strength in the whole region is boosting up. Evolution of diffusion value in every province is uneven; Evolution of field strength is very discrepancy in every region. High value of diffusion value in the zone along the Yangtze River and Hangzhou Bay is bigger than other zone. And then we discuss that the mechanism of urban comprehensive strength and diffusion path from location, resources, urbanization and construction of main lines of communication which act upon ascend of diffusion capacity.
     According to evolution theory of regional spatial structure and the core-periphery, by analyzing evolution feature of spatial structure of urban field in the Pan Yangtze River Delta since reform and opening-up, the results show that evolution of spatial structure in the Pan Yangtze River Delta has been through the five phases of gestation development of administrative center, polarization development of administrative center, diffusion spread development of point-axis, transition development of network and core-periphery structure of two laminations. We combine scientific meaning of regional spatial structural elements with it and five types of regional spatial structures were abstracted from evolution feature of spatial structure in the Pan Yangtze River Delta. They are thin point type, scattered block type, band type, wreathlike type and plate type.
     According to evolution laws and mechanism of spatial structure of economy, accessibility, urban field in the Pan Yangtze River Delta, especially spatial structure urban field, on the principle of establish development axis in accordance with city nodes, establish planes in accordance with axis, we conduct spatial integration for city nodes, industrial development axis and industrial development metropolitan in the Pan Yangtze River Delta and build first grade industrial development axis as a hairbrush compositing of the development axis along the Yangtze River, coastal zone, hu-ning-he, hu-hang-qu. Under first grade industrial development axis of hairbrush, we act Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei, Suzhou, Ningbo as diffusion sources and build the second grade development axis. And field strength in the Pan Yangtze River Delta was classed as core area, adjoining area, outer area and based on it urban economic region in the Pan Yangtze River Delta was classed as kernel metropolitan, adjoining metropolitan, outer metropolitan. Further, we propose countermeasures for the regional balance development and the coordinated development of both the urban and rural area and Anhui taking on industrial transfer from the Pan Yangtze River Delta.
引文
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