综合安全评估在FPSO营运管理中应用研究
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摘要
传统船舶设计和强度分析理论主要在安全域内考察船舶安全问题，忽视了风险分析，尤其没有注意人为因素对船舶营运安全的重要影响，对海损事故只能延用事后研究式处理方法。这就造成了海事界结构设计方法和软件不断改进更新，而海损事故却没有明显减少的现状。
鉴于上述，本文试图改变传统的研究思路，不仅在安全域内评估船体营运安全，更重要的是瞄准受损船体，在失效域及临界状态分析评估船舶营运安全，并将风险分析、人为因素与安全联系起来，对可能导致海损事故的风险采取先行预报一主动控制的事先预防式处理方法。
在此前提下，本文选择了船体梁纵向强度失效模式，通过FPSO实船计算，分析消化了理想单元法程序软件，预报了船舶极限强度和安全有效寿命期，并用一阶二次矩方法对完整／受损船体的结构安全性进行了可靠性的评估，取得了预想的结果，为进一步实施综合安全评估提供了分析数据。
随后，本文介绍了船舶营运管理中综合安全评估的基本方法和步骤，该方法着重考虑了人为因素／人为失误，通过风险分析，提出降低风险措施的决策建议并作费用与效益评估。通过对15万吨“南海奋进”号浮式生产储油船分析表明，该FPSO营运过程中装／卸载风险对船体梁纵向强度和安全性具有显著影响。为此采用FSA5个标准步序，针对这种影响进行了安全评估，探讨了人为因素风险分析和FSA从理论到实践应用的可行性。并尝试提出了船舶损坏(碰撞)情况下的应急响应措施。
本文的研究成果可为提高FPSO营运安全和经济效益提供理论依据和技术条件，并为改进同类船舶设计提供理论支持和技术指导，某些分析结果可以为制定风险规范以及对船舶实施综合安全评估提供理论依据，更为重要的是本文实现了工程技术同管理科学的有机结合，为改善海事界的安全现状做出了自己的贡献。
Traditional theories of ship design and strength analysis are mainly applied to review the ship safety under the situation of safety, overlook the risk analysis, specially the influence to ship operation safety by human factors. Normally, the averages can only be handled by the afterwards research. It causes the awkward status quo that the accidents are not reduced markedly with the development of ship structure design methods and soft wares.
Therefore, this paper try to change the traditional ideas, not only evaluate the ship operation safety under the safety situation, but also take aim at the damaged ship hull, assess the risk under the lapse and critical situation. It takes the preventive method to predict and initiatively control the risks that may induce to the averages.
With this understanding, this paper chooses the longitudinal strength of hull girder as the disabled mode, by the calculation of FPSO, predicts the ultimate strength and effective lifetime of the hull. Expected results of examples are obtained, which provide the analysis data for the further risk assessment.
Subsequently, the basic measures and procedures of FSA are presented. Human factors/human errors are considered emphatically in this method. Policy decisions about reducing risk are put forward by risk analysis, and assessment of cost-benefits is made. Taking "Nanhai fenjin" FPSO as example, the analyses show that the loading/unloading courses of the FPSO have marked effects on the longitudinal strength of hull girder and safety. So the safety assessment aiming at these effects has been carried out by using the five standard procedures of FSA, and the feasibility of putting the theory into practice is explored, which is about human factor risk analysis and FSA. The emergency response measurements for ship damage due to collision are also given.
The achievements in this paper can provide theory basis and technical conditions for enhancing FPSO operating safety and economic benefits, and provide theory support and technical guidance for improve the follow-up and similar ship design. The most important contribution of the research is that it hangs together the engineering technology with the science of administration for the maritime circle.
鉴于上述，本文试图改变传统的研究思路，不仅在安全域内评估船体营运安全，更重要的是瞄准受损船体，在失效域及临界状态分析评估船舶营运安全，并将风险分析、人为因素与安全联系起来，对可能导致海损事故的风险采取先行预报一主动控制的事先预防式处理方法。
在此前提下，本文选择了船体梁纵向强度失效模式，通过FPSO实船计算，分析消化了理想单元法程序软件，预报了船舶极限强度和安全有效寿命期，并用一阶二次矩方法对完整／受损船体的结构安全性进行了可靠性的评估，取得了预想的结果，为进一步实施综合安全评估提供了分析数据。
随后，本文介绍了船舶营运管理中综合安全评估的基本方法和步骤，该方法着重考虑了人为因素／人为失误，通过风险分析，提出降低风险措施的决策建议并作费用与效益评估。通过对15万吨“南海奋进”号浮式生产储油船分析表明，该FPSO营运过程中装／卸载风险对船体梁纵向强度和安全性具有显著影响。为此采用FSA5个标准步序，针对这种影响进行了安全评估，探讨了人为因素风险分析和FSA从理论到实践应用的可行性。并尝试提出了船舶损坏(碰撞)情况下的应急响应措施。
本文的研究成果可为提高FPSO营运安全和经济效益提供理论依据和技术条件，并为改进同类船舶设计提供理论支持和技术指导，某些分析结果可以为制定风险规范以及对船舶实施综合安全评估提供理论依据，更为重要的是本文实现了工程技术同管理科学的有机结合，为改善海事界的安全现状做出了自己的贡献。
Traditional theories of ship design and strength analysis are mainly applied to review the ship safety under the situation of safety, overlook the risk analysis, specially the influence to ship operation safety by human factors. Normally, the averages can only be handled by the afterwards research. It causes the awkward status quo that the accidents are not reduced markedly with the development of ship structure design methods and soft wares.
Therefore, this paper try to change the traditional ideas, not only evaluate the ship operation safety under the safety situation, but also take aim at the damaged ship hull, assess the risk under the lapse and critical situation. It takes the preventive method to predict and initiatively control the risks that may induce to the averages.
With this understanding, this paper chooses the longitudinal strength of hull girder as the disabled mode, by the calculation of FPSO, predicts the ultimate strength and effective lifetime of the hull. Expected results of examples are obtained, which provide the analysis data for the further risk assessment.
Subsequently, the basic measures and procedures of FSA are presented. Human factors/human errors are considered emphatically in this method. Policy decisions about reducing risk are put forward by risk analysis, and assessment of cost-benefits is made. Taking "Nanhai fenjin" FPSO as example, the analyses show that the loading/unloading courses of the FPSO have marked effects on the longitudinal strength of hull girder and safety. So the safety assessment aiming at these effects has been carried out by using the five standard procedures of FSA, and the feasibility of putting the theory into practice is explored, which is about human factor risk analysis and FSA. The emergency response measurements for ship damage due to collision are also given.
The achievements in this paper can provide theory basis and technical conditions for enhancing FPSO operating safety and economic benefits, and provide theory support and technical guidance for improve the follow-up and similar ship design. The most important contribution of the research is that it hangs together the engineering technology with the science of administration for the maritime circle.
引文
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[2] TETSUYA YAO. Analysis of the accident of the MV Nakhodka. Part 2. Estimation of Structural strength [J]. J Mar Sci Technol, 1998,3:181-193
[3] UKOOA. Piper alpha—a history [Z]. Health and Safety Index, 1999.
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[5] 赵耕贤．FPSO结构设计特点[J]．船舶，2002，1：38-41
[6] 刘燕玲，王勇．浮式采储卸油船(FPSO)市场发展迅猛[J]．中国海洋平台，1998，13(3)：39-44
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[16] 邵文蛟．破舱情况下船体总纵强度分析[J]．中国造船，1997，1：66-72
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[23] 向阳．综合安全评估方法在船舶安全规则制定中的应用及对规范发展的影响[J]．中国造船，1999，151(5)：56-58
[24] J. WANG, P. FOINIKIS. Formal safety assessment of containerships [J]. Marine Policy, 2001,25:143-157
[25]J. WANG. Offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships [J]. Journal of safety Research, 2002, 33:81-115
[26]景宝金．浅析FPSO设计的技术难点与管理工作对策[J]．船舶，2002，3：21-23
[27]郭昌捷，李建军等．“九五”国家重点技术引进消化吸收“一条龙”项目子专题技术成果报告——受损船体极限强度分析和可靠性评估[Z]．大连理工大学船舶学院，2002．
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[30]刘亚林．船舶积载系统的发展[J]．造船技术，1999，3：9-10
[31]王鸿鹏．计算机在海船配积载中的应用[J]．航海技术，2001，2：18-19
[32]曹庆祝，黄子坚．散货船舶配载程序CARGOMAX在WINDOWS环境中运行操作简介[J]．航海技术，2000，4：22-23
[33]顾宣炎，周瑞平．计算机辅助集装箱船舶配载[J]．水运科技信息，1998，166：19-21
[34]雷君林，金炳兴．散货老龄船安全营运与管理探讨[J]．航海技术，2001，5：70-72
[35]杨思明．近海浮式生产贮卸油设施总体布置的探讨[J]．中国海洋平台，1999，14(2)：6-9
[36]陈伟炯，张锦朋．如何为SMS建立科学高效的《船上应急计划系统》[J]．水运管理，2000，专题研究：28-33
[37]刘灿军．谈船员对紧急情况的预防控制能力[J]．航海技术，2000，2：74-76
[38]顾海钧．对加强国内液货船安全制度管理的几点看法[J]．航海技术，2000，1：71-74
[39]胡一民．因装卸行为不当引发的油污事件及其防范[J]．世界海运，1997，3：48-50
[40]孟庆春．论船舶搁浅的应急处理[J]．水运管理，2001，43-44
[41]魏东，张圣坤．基于规范要求的受损船体总纵剩余强度分析[J]．上海交通大学学报，2000，34(1)：127-131
[42]祁恩荣，崔维成，彭兴宁，徐向东．船舶碰撞和搁浅后剩余强度可靠性评估[J]．船舶力学，1999，3(5)：40-46
[43]何福志，万正权，张伟．基于船体结构总纵极限强度的可靠性分析[J]．船舶力学，2002，6(2)：27-45
[44]魏东，张圣坤，周继胜．考虑腐蚀与疲劳损伤的船体总纵极限强度与可靠性分析[J]．中国造船，1999，4：43-50
[45]张文涛等．再论货驳“843”的总体断裂破坏事故[J]．武汉造船，2000，6：18-21
[46]张家新，聂武．破损船体极限强度估算[J]．华东船舶工业学院学报，1996，10(2)：13-17
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[55] 郭昌捷，张道坤，李建军．综合安全评估在船舶装卸载过程中应用[J]．大连理工大学学报，2002，42(5)：564-568
[2] TETSUYA YAO. Analysis of the accident of the MV Nakhodka. Part 2. Estimation of Structural strength [J]. J Mar Sci Technol, 1998,3:181-193
[3] UKOOA. Piper alpha—a history [Z]. Health and Safety Index, 1999.
[4] 钱多一．FPSO开发与并行工程[J]．船舶，2001，5：6-9
[5] 赵耕贤．FPSO结构设计特点[J]．船舶，2002，1：38-41
[6] 刘燕玲，王勇．浮式采储卸油船(FPSO)市场发展迅猛[J]．中国海洋平台，1998，13(3)：39-44
[7] 古文贤，钱耀鹏．船舶运输安全学[M]．大连：大连海运学院出版社，1992．
[8] VASTA J. "Lessons learned from full-scale structure tests". Trans SNAME, 1958,166:165-243
[9] 赵耕贤．船舶与海洋结构物设计中的关键技术之一(结构强度)[J]．船舶，6：22-34
[10] 赵国藩．工程结构可靠性理论与应用[M]．大连：大连理工大学出版社，1996．
[11] Lloyd's Register of Shipping World Casualty Statistics [Z], 1995
[12] Lloyd's Register of Shipping World Casualty Statistics [Z], 1996
[13] OHTSUBO H, et al. Structural designs against collision and grounding [Z]. 13th International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress, 1997, 2:83-116
[14] RUTHERFORD S E, CALDWELL J B. Ultimate longitudinal strength of ships: A case study [J]. SNAME Trans, 1990,98
[15] 郭昌捷．油船配载控制与剩余强度研究[J]．大连理工大学学报，1995，35(6)：867-872
[16] 邵文蛟．破舱情况下船体总纵强度分析[J]．中国造船，1997，1：66-72
[17] JEOM KEE PAIK, ALAA E. M ANSOUR. "A simple formulation for predicting the ultimate strength of ship". Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 1995,1:52-62
[18] GUO CItANGJIE, LI JIANJUN, et al. Residual strength study for damaged hull and risk analysis and formal safety assessment. Science Foundation of China, 2002,10(1): 19-22
[19] ABS. ABS safehull system for tankers guide for assessing hull girder residual strength for tankers [Z]. America: ABS, 1995.
[20] J. WANG. A subjective modeling tool applied to formal ship safety assessment [J]. Ocean Engineering, 2000,27
[21] Germanischer Lloyd. Concerted action on FSEA WA-96-CA-1155 [Z]. Summary Report, Version 0,1999.
[22] 中国船级社．综合安全评估应用指南[Z]．第一版．北京：中国船级社，1999．
[23] 向阳．综合安全评估方法在船舶安全规则制定中的应用及对规范发展的影响[J]．中国造船，1999，151(5)：56-58
[24] J. WANG, P. FOINIKIS. Formal safety assessment of containerships [J]. Marine Policy, 2001,25:143-157
[25]J. WANG. Offshore safety case approach and formal safety assessment of ships [J]. Journal of safety Research, 2002, 33:81-115
[26]景宝金．浅析FPSO设计的技术难点与管理工作对策[J]．船舶，2002，3：21-23
[27]郭昌捷，李建军等．“九五”国家重点技术引进消化吸收“一条龙”项目子专题技术成果报告——受损船体极限强度分析和可靠性评估[Z]．大连理工大学船舶学院，2002．
[28][苏]海船船体技术状态评价[M]．北京：人民交通出版社，1989．
[29]郭昌捷，唐翰岫，周炳焕．受损船体极限强度分析与可靠性评估[J]．中国造船，1998，143(3)：49-56
[30]刘亚林．船舶积载系统的发展[J]．造船技术，1999，3：9-10
[31]王鸿鹏．计算机在海船配积载中的应用[J]．航海技术，2001，2：18-19
[32]曹庆祝，黄子坚．散货船舶配载程序CARGOMAX在WINDOWS环境中运行操作简介[J]．航海技术，2000，4：22-23
[33]顾宣炎，周瑞平．计算机辅助集装箱船舶配载[J]．水运科技信息，1998，166：19-21
[34]雷君林，金炳兴．散货老龄船安全营运与管理探讨[J]．航海技术，2001，5：70-72
[35]杨思明．近海浮式生产贮卸油设施总体布置的探讨[J]．中国海洋平台，1999，14(2)：6-9
[36]陈伟炯，张锦朋．如何为SMS建立科学高效的《船上应急计划系统》[J]．水运管理，2000，专题研究：28-33
[37]刘灿军．谈船员对紧急情况的预防控制能力[J]．航海技术，2000，2：74-76
[38]顾海钧．对加强国内液货船安全制度管理的几点看法[J]．航海技术，2000，1：71-74
[39]胡一民．因装卸行为不当引发的油污事件及其防范[J]．世界海运，1997，3：48-50
[40]孟庆春．论船舶搁浅的应急处理[J]．水运管理，2001，43-44
[41]魏东，张圣坤．基于规范要求的受损船体总纵剩余强度分析[J]．上海交通大学学报，2000，34(1)：127-131
[42]祁恩荣，崔维成，彭兴宁，徐向东．船舶碰撞和搁浅后剩余强度可靠性评估[J]．船舶力学，1999，3(5)：40-46
[43]何福志，万正权，张伟．基于船体结构总纵极限强度的可靠性分析[J]．船舶力学，2002，6(2)：27-45
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