森林景观多目标经营规划研究
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摘要
本研究以我国吉林省汪清林业局金沟岭林场为对象,基于小班调查数据,建立了六种主要森林类型林分蓄积量生长模型;在此基础上,以木材收获和地上碳贮增量作为经营目标,建立了森林景观多目标规划模型,得到了最优经营方案。主要结论如下:
(1)利用Richards、Logistic、单分子、Gompertz和Korf 5种理论生长方程,建立了主要森林类型林分蓄积量生长模型,采用模型拟合统计量、误差及残差分布对模型进行评价和检验。结果表明:白桦林、人工混交林、天然针阔混交林用Richards模型最好;人工落叶松林、天然阔叶混交林、天然针叶混交林用Logistic模型最好。
(2)以划分的六种主要森林类型为对象,以50年为经营周期,建立关于木材和地上碳贮增量的多目标规划模型,以木材和碳净现值最大为经营目标。在均衡采伐量等约束条件下,通过LINGO软件求解,得到了各个森林类型在不同分期的采伐强度和采伐量。间伐强度在7%-15%之间,择伐强度在8%-35%之间。规划期木材总采伐量为3675310m3,木材每年采伐量73506 m3。规划期末地上碳贮增量为4963590吨,年碳贮增量99270吨;规划期总收益为69151.84万元,其中木材净现值55361.33万元,碳净现值13790.51万元。多目标经营方案可以同时满足对木材生产和碳贮增量的需求,是一个最优的方案。
(3)对2种多目标森林经营方案(方案1和方案2)和单目标木材生产经营方案(方案3)进行了比较:结果表明:三种经营方案总收益分别为69151.84万元、69075.11万元和68954.81万元,相差不大;但多目标经营方案与木材生产经营方案相比,木材净现值分别减少6.75%、2.54%,但地上碳贮增量净现值分别增加14.44%、25.45%。因此增加碳贮增量要以减少木材采伐量为代价。
(4)分析了低、中、高三种碳价格对多目标经营方案1(木材生产和碳增量取相同权重)的影响,结果表明:整个规划期内木材采伐蓄积变化趋势为随着碳价格的增加而减少,而碳贮增量变化趋势为随着碳价格的增加而增加。
The study developed volume growth models of six major forest types based on subcompartment data in Jingouling forest farm of Wangqing Forestry Bureau, Jilin Province. Multi-objective management planning at landscape level was studied with timber production and above-ground carbon stock as objectives. The optimal management scenario was obtained. The results were as follows:
(1) Sub-compartment investigation data were used for model calibration of volume growth of main forest types in Jingouling forest farm. Richards, logistic, single molecule, Gompertz, and Korf growth equations were tested,and model performance was evaluated by fitting statistics, errors and residual distribution. The results showed that Richards model was the best for volume growth estimation of birch forest, mixed plantation and natural mixed conifer-broad-leaved forest, and logistic model was the best volume growth model for larch plantation, mixed broad-leaved forest and natural mixed coniferous forest.
(2) Multi-objective programming model was established with six major forest types as subjects and the maximum of net present value of timber harvest and aboveground carbon stock change as object function. The planning period was 50 years. The model could be resolved by LINGO software under the constraints of an even flow of timber production. We got thinning and selective cutting intensity and the corresponding volume of various forest types in different planning horizons. The thinning intensity by volume was from 7% to 15%, and the selective cutting intesity varied from 8% to 35%. The total timber harvest was 3,675,310m3 and the harvest volume of each year was 73,506 m3 . Above-ground carbon stock change after 50 years was 4,963,590 tons, and annual increase was 99,270tons. .The total net present value (NPV) was 691,518,400 Yuan including timber NPV 553,613,300 Yuan and carbon NPV 137,905,100yuan.The management planning scenario was an optimal one which could meet both timber production and carbon storage.
(3) We compared two scenarios for multipurpose forest management (Scenario 1 and 2) with only timber production scenario (Scenario 3). The results showed that there was no significant difference in the total NPV for these three scenarios in 50 planning period with the NPVs of 691,518,400Yuan, 690,751,100Yuan and 689,548,100Yuan, respectively, however, the NPVs of timber harvest for scenarios 1 and 2 were 6.75% and 2.54% lower than that of scenario 3; and the NPVs of aboveground carbon stock were 14.44% and 25.45%larger than that of scenario 3.Therefore, there was a compromise between timber harvest and aboveground carbon stock change.
(4) We analyzed the effects of carbon price on the multipurpose forest management (Scenario 1 with the same weight ). The results showed that timber harvest volume in the whole planning period decreased with the increased carbon price, but net carbon storage was on the contrary.
The study provided methody and reference for multiple objective forest management planning with the consideration of selective cutting and carbon storage.
(1)利用Richards、Logistic、单分子、Gompertz和Korf 5种理论生长方程,建立了主要森林类型林分蓄积量生长模型,采用模型拟合统计量、误差及残差分布对模型进行评价和检验。结果表明:白桦林、人工混交林、天然针阔混交林用Richards模型最好;人工落叶松林、天然阔叶混交林、天然针叶混交林用Logistic模型最好。
(2)以划分的六种主要森林类型为对象,以50年为经营周期,建立关于木材和地上碳贮增量的多目标规划模型,以木材和碳净现值最大为经营目标。在均衡采伐量等约束条件下,通过LINGO软件求解,得到了各个森林类型在不同分期的采伐强度和采伐量。间伐强度在7%-15%之间,择伐强度在8%-35%之间。规划期木材总采伐量为3675310m3,木材每年采伐量73506 m3。规划期末地上碳贮增量为4963590吨,年碳贮增量99270吨;规划期总收益为69151.84万元,其中木材净现值55361.33万元,碳净现值13790.51万元。多目标经营方案可以同时满足对木材生产和碳贮增量的需求,是一个最优的方案。
(3)对2种多目标森林经营方案(方案1和方案2)和单目标木材生产经营方案(方案3)进行了比较:结果表明:三种经营方案总收益分别为69151.84万元、69075.11万元和68954.81万元,相差不大;但多目标经营方案与木材生产经营方案相比,木材净现值分别减少6.75%、2.54%,但地上碳贮增量净现值分别增加14.44%、25.45%。因此增加碳贮增量要以减少木材采伐量为代价。
(4)分析了低、中、高三种碳价格对多目标经营方案1(木材生产和碳增量取相同权重)的影响,结果表明:整个规划期内木材采伐蓄积变化趋势为随着碳价格的增加而减少,而碳贮增量变化趋势为随着碳价格的增加而增加。
The study developed volume growth models of six major forest types based on subcompartment data in Jingouling forest farm of Wangqing Forestry Bureau, Jilin Province. Multi-objective management planning at landscape level was studied with timber production and above-ground carbon stock as objectives. The optimal management scenario was obtained. The results were as follows:
(1) Sub-compartment investigation data were used for model calibration of volume growth of main forest types in Jingouling forest farm. Richards, logistic, single molecule, Gompertz, and Korf growth equations were tested,and model performance was evaluated by fitting statistics, errors and residual distribution. The results showed that Richards model was the best for volume growth estimation of birch forest, mixed plantation and natural mixed conifer-broad-leaved forest, and logistic model was the best volume growth model for larch plantation, mixed broad-leaved forest and natural mixed coniferous forest.
(2) Multi-objective programming model was established with six major forest types as subjects and the maximum of net present value of timber harvest and aboveground carbon stock change as object function. The planning period was 50 years. The model could be resolved by LINGO software under the constraints of an even flow of timber production. We got thinning and selective cutting intensity and the corresponding volume of various forest types in different planning horizons. The thinning intensity by volume was from 7% to 15%, and the selective cutting intesity varied from 8% to 35%. The total timber harvest was 3,675,310m3 and the harvest volume of each year was 73,506 m3 . Above-ground carbon stock change after 50 years was 4,963,590 tons, and annual increase was 99,270tons. .The total net present value (NPV) was 691,518,400 Yuan including timber NPV 553,613,300 Yuan and carbon NPV 137,905,100yuan.The management planning scenario was an optimal one which could meet both timber production and carbon storage.
(3) We compared two scenarios for multipurpose forest management (Scenario 1 and 2) with only timber production scenario (Scenario 3). The results showed that there was no significant difference in the total NPV for these three scenarios in 50 planning period with the NPVs of 691,518,400Yuan, 690,751,100Yuan and 689,548,100Yuan, respectively, however, the NPVs of timber harvest for scenarios 1 and 2 were 6.75% and 2.54% lower than that of scenario 3; and the NPVs of aboveground carbon stock were 14.44% and 25.45%larger than that of scenario 3.Therefore, there was a compromise between timber harvest and aboveground carbon stock change.
(4) We analyzed the effects of carbon price on the multipurpose forest management (Scenario 1 with the same weight ). The results showed that timber harvest volume in the whole planning period decreased with the increased carbon price, but net carbon storage was on the contrary.
The study provided methody and reference for multiple objective forest management planning with the consideration of selective cutting and carbon storage.
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