中国贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响
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摘要
在经济全球化的时代,每个国家都在逐步融入国际分工与合作体系,以期借势促进本国经济的发展。在贸易全球化的趋势下,中国面临着更加开放的国际市场和自由贸易。随着市场经济体制的确立和加入WTO,中国的贸易开放得到了快速发展,贸易依存度迅速提高。与此同时,中国的城乡居民收入差距也呈现不断扩大的趋势。而同在改革开放背景下所出现的且均呈增大趋势的贸易开放和城乡居民收入差距,很容易使人去猜度两者之间存在的某种联系。于是,国内外学者就贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响进行了大量研究。但由于存在分析的目标、衡量的指标、解释的机理、数据的口径等诸多不同,这一问题目前并没有一致的结论。本文分为四个子研究分别从不同角度就贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的作用进行了重新解读。
在子研究一中,分别从传统视角下和区域空间上就贸易开放与城乡居民收入差距的演变历程进行阐述后,进而对两者之间的关系进行了分析。(1)无论从传统视角下还是区域空间上观察,贸易开放和城乡居民收入差距均呈正相关关系。(2)采用灰色关联度分析表明,无论是全国,还是分为东部、中部和西部三大区域来观察；无论是贸易开放,还是把贸易开放分为出口开放和进口开放来观察,贸易开放度与城乡居民收入差距之间均存在较高的关联度。关联分析的结果印证了直观上的感觉,即贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距呈强关联。
在子研究二中,根据以往研究中对地理空间因素的忽略,本文基于1978-2011年的省级数据,采用空间计量法分析了贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响。实证发现：贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距呈正向作用,与现状分析相一致；但考虑城乡居民收入差距的空间溢出效应之后,贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的正向作用降低,这可能源于城乡居民收入差距的空间正向效应对贸易开放的正向效应造成的挤出。因此,可以合理利用空间效应具有弱化贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的正向作用,以实现通过调节空间效应达到促进外贸增长和缩小城乡居民收入差距之目标。
在子研究三中,根据已有研究中存在数据过于中观或宏观、微观数据所采用的年数过少、研究结果不够直观等局限性,本文基于1995、2002、2007和2010年等四个年份的微观大样本数据,利用Mincer收入扩展模型,运用Oaxaca-Ransom分解法,把贸易开放置于包含劳动者的基本特征、工作特征和地区特征等微观个体因素以及经济结构、经济发展等宏观经济因素的情境中,分析贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响。研究结论表明,贸易开放因素对城乡居民收入差距的影响整体表现为较低的负向贡献作用,但对贸易开放拆分后对进口和出口进行分开考察,进口开放和出口开放对城乡居民收入差距的贡献率都比较大；贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的贡献方向稳定,而且贡献率整体呈递增态势。可以看出,不可因为贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的整体贡献率较低而忽视贸易开放因素对城乡居民收入差距的影响。
在子研究四中,根据已有的关于贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距影响的文献中研究的侧重点多放在影响因素贸易开放的现象,本文则把研究关注的重点适当向城乡居民收入差距方面作了转移。众所周知,“民不患寡而患不均”,如果出现城乡居民收入差距地区发展的不平衡问题,容易引起民众的怨忿从而增加社会的不稳定因素。因此,如何促进中国各地区城乡居民收入差距的趋同,对经济社会的发展具有重要意义。鉴于此,本文建立收敛回归模型,基于1978-2011年的省级数据,就贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距增长收敛的影响做了分析。研究发现,贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的增长率呈负向作用,而对中国各省份城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的发散作用。从分进口和出口来看,贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距增长率的负向作用是出口开放对城乡居民收入差距增长率的负向作用和进口开放对城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的正向作用协同作用的结果；贸易开放对中国各省份城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的发散作用是出口开放对中国各省区城乡居民收入差距的发散作用和进口开放对中国各省份城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的收敛作用协同作用的结果。
最后,基于实证分析结果,本文全面总结了贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响作用,提出了相应的政策建议,并对需要进一步的研究方向作了说明。
In the era of economic globalization, each country gradually integrates into the system of international labor division and cooperation in order to promote the economic development. In the trend of trade globalization, China faces a more open international markets and free trade. With the establishment of market economy and the accession to the WTO, China's trade openness has enjoyed rapid development, trade dependence increases rapidly.At the same time, China's urban-rural residents' income inequality also presents a trend of expansion.Since trade openness and the urban-rural residents income inequality are in the similar trend of increasing and are simultaneously presented in the context of reform and opening up, it is easy to let us make some connection between the trade openness and the urban-rural residents income inequality. As a result, both domestic and foreign scholars have made a lot of research for the effect of trade openness on the urban-rural residents income inequality.There is no consistent conclusion about the impact of trade openness on the urban-rural residents income inequality because there exists various difference on the objectives of the analysis, the measurable indicators, the mechanism of explanation, the diameter of data,etc. This paper is divided into four sub-studies to explore the role of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality from different angles.
Sub-study1explains the evolution of trade openness and urban-rural residents' income inequality from the traditional perspective and regional space, then analyzes the relationship between the two.(1) Whether observing from the traditional perspective or regional space, trade openness and urban-rural residents'income inequality are positively correlated.(2) The grey correlation analysis indicates that no matter we analysis it from the sub-regional perspective or from the import or export level, there exists a higher correlation between trade openness and urban-rural residents'income inequality. The results of correlation analysis verified the intuitive sense, that is there exists a strong correlation between trade openness and urban-rural residents'income inequality.
According to the neglected geo spatial factors in previous research, sub-study2uses spatial econometrics to analysis the impact of trade openness on urban-rural residents'income inequality based on provincial data from1978to2011. Findings from empirical test:Trade openness has a positive effect on urban-rural household income inequality, which is consistent with the status quo analysis; However, the positive effect of trade openness on urban-rural household income inequality is reduced when considering spatial spillover effect of urban-rural household income inequality, which might be attributed to the crowding-out effect from the positive effect of spatial spillover effect of urban-rural household income inequality to the positive effects of trade openness. Therefore, now that the spatial effect can weaken the positive effect of trade openness to urban-rural household income inequality, we can rationally take advantage of this phenomenon to achieve the goal of promoting foreign trade growth and narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents by adjusting the spatial effect.
In previous study, the data is too much in medium or macro format, and the micro data of previous studies is only in one-year format, so the research results is not intuitive. Sub-study3re-analyses the impact of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality, which uses the Mincer extension model and the Oaxaca-Ransom decomposition method based on four-years'micro sample data of1995,2002,2007and2010. In this study, the trade openness is placed in a situation of which the macroeconomic factors(such as economic structure, economic development) and micro individual factors(basic features,working characteristics and regional characteristics) are both included.The research results indicate that the overall performance of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality is a low and negative contribution,but when the trade openness is splitted into export openness and import openness for further investigation, we find the contribution rate on the urban-rural residents'income inequality become larger. The contribution direction of trade openness on the urban-rural residents' income inequality is stable, and the contribution rate presents an increasing trend on the whole. It is not difficult to see that we cann't ignore the impact of trade openness just because of a lower contribution rate of trade openness on the urban-rural residents' income inequality.
According to the previous research of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality, there exists a phenomenon that the literature focus more on influencing factors of trade openness, while sub-study4transfers a little bit attention to the urban-rural residents'income inequality. As everyone knows,"the trouble lies not in scarcity but in uneven distribution", if the urban-rural residents' income inequality are unbalanced in provincial level, then it is easy to cause the people seem to hate and increase the unstable factors in the society. Therefore, it is of great significance to the economic and social development on promoting the convergence of urban-rural residents'income inequality in the different area of China. In view of this, based on the provincial data of year1978-2011, sub-study4establishes the convergence regression model to analyze the effect of trade openness on growth rate and convergence of the urban-rural residents'income inequality.The study found that trade openness shows a negative effect on the growth rate of the urban-rural residents'income inequality, and shows a divergence but insignificant effect on rural residents'income inequality among various provinces in China. If trade openness is divided into export openness and import openness, the negative effect of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality is the synergistic effect of the two:one is the negative effect of export openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality, the other is the insignificant positive effect of import openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality; and the insignificant divergence effect of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality is the synergistic effect of the two:one is the divergence effect of export openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality, the other is the insignificant convergence effect of import openness on the urban-rural residents' income inequality.
Finally, based on the empirical analysis results, the paper conducted a comprehensive summary about the impact of trade openness on urban-rural household income inequality, made some appropriate policy suggestions, and also described the direction for further research.
在子研究一中,分别从传统视角下和区域空间上就贸易开放与城乡居民收入差距的演变历程进行阐述后,进而对两者之间的关系进行了分析。(1)无论从传统视角下还是区域空间上观察,贸易开放和城乡居民收入差距均呈正相关关系。(2)采用灰色关联度分析表明,无论是全国,还是分为东部、中部和西部三大区域来观察；无论是贸易开放,还是把贸易开放分为出口开放和进口开放来观察,贸易开放度与城乡居民收入差距之间均存在较高的关联度。关联分析的结果印证了直观上的感觉,即贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距呈强关联。
在子研究二中,根据以往研究中对地理空间因素的忽略,本文基于1978-2011年的省级数据,采用空间计量法分析了贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响。实证发现：贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距呈正向作用,与现状分析相一致；但考虑城乡居民收入差距的空间溢出效应之后,贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的正向作用降低,这可能源于城乡居民收入差距的空间正向效应对贸易开放的正向效应造成的挤出。因此,可以合理利用空间效应具有弱化贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的正向作用,以实现通过调节空间效应达到促进外贸增长和缩小城乡居民收入差距之目标。
在子研究三中,根据已有研究中存在数据过于中观或宏观、微观数据所采用的年数过少、研究结果不够直观等局限性,本文基于1995、2002、2007和2010年等四个年份的微观大样本数据,利用Mincer收入扩展模型,运用Oaxaca-Ransom分解法,把贸易开放置于包含劳动者的基本特征、工作特征和地区特征等微观个体因素以及经济结构、经济发展等宏观经济因素的情境中,分析贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响。研究结论表明,贸易开放因素对城乡居民收入差距的影响整体表现为较低的负向贡献作用,但对贸易开放拆分后对进口和出口进行分开考察,进口开放和出口开放对城乡居民收入差距的贡献率都比较大；贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的贡献方向稳定,而且贡献率整体呈递增态势。可以看出,不可因为贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的整体贡献率较低而忽视贸易开放因素对城乡居民收入差距的影响。
在子研究四中,根据已有的关于贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距影响的文献中研究的侧重点多放在影响因素贸易开放的现象,本文则把研究关注的重点适当向城乡居民收入差距方面作了转移。众所周知,“民不患寡而患不均”,如果出现城乡居民收入差距地区发展的不平衡问题,容易引起民众的怨忿从而增加社会的不稳定因素。因此,如何促进中国各地区城乡居民收入差距的趋同,对经济社会的发展具有重要意义。鉴于此,本文建立收敛回归模型,基于1978-2011年的省级数据,就贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距增长收敛的影响做了分析。研究发现,贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的增长率呈负向作用,而对中国各省份城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的发散作用。从分进口和出口来看,贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距增长率的负向作用是出口开放对城乡居民收入差距增长率的负向作用和进口开放对城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的正向作用协同作用的结果；贸易开放对中国各省份城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的发散作用是出口开放对中国各省区城乡居民收入差距的发散作用和进口开放对中国各省份城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的收敛作用协同作用的结果。
最后,基于实证分析结果,本文全面总结了贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响作用,提出了相应的政策建议,并对需要进一步的研究方向作了说明。
In the era of economic globalization, each country gradually integrates into the system of international labor division and cooperation in order to promote the economic development. In the trend of trade globalization, China faces a more open international markets and free trade. With the establishment of market economy and the accession to the WTO, China's trade openness has enjoyed rapid development, trade dependence increases rapidly.At the same time, China's urban-rural residents' income inequality also presents a trend of expansion.Since trade openness and the urban-rural residents income inequality are in the similar trend of increasing and are simultaneously presented in the context of reform and opening up, it is easy to let us make some connection between the trade openness and the urban-rural residents income inequality. As a result, both domestic and foreign scholars have made a lot of research for the effect of trade openness on the urban-rural residents income inequality.There is no consistent conclusion about the impact of trade openness on the urban-rural residents income inequality because there exists various difference on the objectives of the analysis, the measurable indicators, the mechanism of explanation, the diameter of data,etc. This paper is divided into four sub-studies to explore the role of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality from different angles.
Sub-study1explains the evolution of trade openness and urban-rural residents' income inequality from the traditional perspective and regional space, then analyzes the relationship between the two.(1) Whether observing from the traditional perspective or regional space, trade openness and urban-rural residents'income inequality are positively correlated.(2) The grey correlation analysis indicates that no matter we analysis it from the sub-regional perspective or from the import or export level, there exists a higher correlation between trade openness and urban-rural residents'income inequality. The results of correlation analysis verified the intuitive sense, that is there exists a strong correlation between trade openness and urban-rural residents'income inequality.
According to the neglected geo spatial factors in previous research, sub-study2uses spatial econometrics to analysis the impact of trade openness on urban-rural residents'income inequality based on provincial data from1978to2011. Findings from empirical test:Trade openness has a positive effect on urban-rural household income inequality, which is consistent with the status quo analysis; However, the positive effect of trade openness on urban-rural household income inequality is reduced when considering spatial spillover effect of urban-rural household income inequality, which might be attributed to the crowding-out effect from the positive effect of spatial spillover effect of urban-rural household income inequality to the positive effects of trade openness. Therefore, now that the spatial effect can weaken the positive effect of trade openness to urban-rural household income inequality, we can rationally take advantage of this phenomenon to achieve the goal of promoting foreign trade growth and narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents by adjusting the spatial effect.
In previous study, the data is too much in medium or macro format, and the micro data of previous studies is only in one-year format, so the research results is not intuitive. Sub-study3re-analyses the impact of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality, which uses the Mincer extension model and the Oaxaca-Ransom decomposition method based on four-years'micro sample data of1995,2002,2007and2010. In this study, the trade openness is placed in a situation of which the macroeconomic factors(such as economic structure, economic development) and micro individual factors(basic features,working characteristics and regional characteristics) are both included.The research results indicate that the overall performance of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality is a low and negative contribution,but when the trade openness is splitted into export openness and import openness for further investigation, we find the contribution rate on the urban-rural residents'income inequality become larger. The contribution direction of trade openness on the urban-rural residents' income inequality is stable, and the contribution rate presents an increasing trend on the whole. It is not difficult to see that we cann't ignore the impact of trade openness just because of a lower contribution rate of trade openness on the urban-rural residents' income inequality.
According to the previous research of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality, there exists a phenomenon that the literature focus more on influencing factors of trade openness, while sub-study4transfers a little bit attention to the urban-rural residents'income inequality. As everyone knows,"the trouble lies not in scarcity but in uneven distribution", if the urban-rural residents' income inequality are unbalanced in provincial level, then it is easy to cause the people seem to hate and increase the unstable factors in the society. Therefore, it is of great significance to the economic and social development on promoting the convergence of urban-rural residents'income inequality in the different area of China. In view of this, based on the provincial data of year1978-2011, sub-study4establishes the convergence regression model to analyze the effect of trade openness on growth rate and convergence of the urban-rural residents'income inequality.The study found that trade openness shows a negative effect on the growth rate of the urban-rural residents'income inequality, and shows a divergence but insignificant effect on rural residents'income inequality among various provinces in China. If trade openness is divided into export openness and import openness, the negative effect of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality is the synergistic effect of the two:one is the negative effect of export openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality, the other is the insignificant positive effect of import openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality; and the insignificant divergence effect of trade openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality is the synergistic effect of the two:one is the divergence effect of export openness on the urban-rural residents'income inequality, the other is the insignificant convergence effect of import openness on the urban-rural residents' income inequality.
Finally, based on the empirical analysis results, the paper conducted a comprehensive summary about the impact of trade openness on urban-rural household income inequality, made some appropriate policy suggestions, and also described the direction for further research.
引文
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