我国股票市场承载力评价体系研究
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摘要
作为社会资金重新配置的调节机构和国民经济的晴雨表,我国股票市场自1990年12月19日上海证券交易所成立开始,已走过20年的风雨历程。截至2010年12月30日,我国股票市场已经取得了拥有2062家上市公司、1.3亿户投资者、总市值全球第二的辉煌成就。然而,作为一个“新兴加转轨”的市场,我国股票市场总体上仍处于探索阶段,走向成熟还需要一个相当漫长的过程。目前,不管是市场监管水平、应急机制的健全还是股票市场的自动调节能力和市场化运行状况都无法达到成熟市场的水平。
为了更好的发挥股票市场在我国经济建设中的作用,对其稳定发展的相关因素进行研究的必要性和重要性日益突出,本文就是从股票市场的供容能力这一角度切入而进行研究。目前,受一些主客观条件的限制,对股票市场供容能力的研究还比较少,而生态环境学研究中的供容能力研究,即“生态承载力研究”,在国内外都已进行了很多年,取得了大量的成果。鉴于股票市场和生态系统的类同性,本文尝试将“承载力”概念引入股票市场研究,创立“股票市场承载力”这个新概念并建立股票市场承载力评价指标体系。
论文主要包括以下五个部分:
1、股票市场发展概况及相关研究。主要描述了股票市场的发展历程和发展中存在的问题,并简单介绍了股票市场的相关研究。这一部分主要是对股票市场承载力研究必要性的现实依据进行阐述。
2、股票市场承载力评价的相关理论。通过对可持续发展理论、金融生态理论和股票市场的生态特征的阐述,为将承载力概念从生态研究领域引入股票市场做了理论铺垫。在提出股票市场承载力概念之后,对概念内涵的两个方面,即资源承载力及风险承载力进行分析,描述了股票市场承载力的要素,得出了股票市场承载力的评价思路——在对资源供给能力评价和风险承受能力评价的基础上进行综合评价。
3、股票市场承载力评价体系的建立。结合生态承载力评价的相关研究方法,建立股票市场承载力评价指标体系。体系共包括两个一级指标和19个二级指标,这些指标能较全面、科学、系统的反映股市的运行情况。指标体系的建立为整个研究打下了坚实的基础。
4、我国股票市场承载力的实证研究。对2000年至2010年间的股票市场运行情况进行了股票市场承载力实证研究,分别分析评价了各年股票市场资源承载力和风险承载力,并在评价基础上对股市未来的运行状况做了预测。结合2000至2010年的实际情况,验证了评价体系的合理性、科学性和实用性。
5、总结与展望。这一部分总结了之前各个章节的研究情况和成果,对未来的研究方向提供了参考,并结合时政研究的结果,向股票市场的监管层提出了几点建议。
As social capital of adjusting mechanism to reconfigure the barometer of national economy in China stock market since 1990 dec 19, established by the Shanghai stock exchange has gone 20 years began the storm of the course. By 2010 December 30, Chinese stock market has made have 2062 listed companies, 1.3 million households investors, total market capitalization brilliant achievements of the world. However, as a "new and transition" market, China's stock market is still in the stage of exploration in general, maturity also need a very slow process. Current, no matter be market supervision level, emergency mechanism sound or the stock market automatic adjustment ability and market operation condition can achieve a mature market level.
In order to better play the stock market economy in our country, its function in the construction of the steady development of correlative factors on the necessity and importance of the study, this paper is growing from the stock market capacity this perspective and research. At present, some subjective and objective conditions by the restrictions on stock market capacity study also is less, and in the study of ecological environmental capacity study, namely "ecological carrying capacity" on both at home and abroad for many years, made a lot of achievements. In view of the stock market and ecological system, this paper attempts to the kind of same "capacity" concept is introduced in the stock market research, the creation of "stock market capacity" on this new concept and establish the stock market capacity evaluation index system.
This thesis mainly includes the following five parts:
1. The stock market development situation and related research are generalized. This thesis mainly describes the development of the stock market process and the existing problems, and simply introduces the stock market related research. This part of the stock market is mainly based on the necessity of carrying capacity reality described in this paper.
2. The stock market capacity evaluation's theory is put forword. Based on the theories of sustainable development, financial ecological theory and the stock market ecological characteristics, the paper for bearing capacity from ecological research concept into the stock market did theoretical foil. In the stock market after forward, the concept of bearing capacity of the connotation of two aspects namely resources supply capacity and pressure inherit status analysis, describes the bearing capacity of the stock market, it is concluded that the stock market elements of the bearing capacity of evaluation idea -- on resources supply capacity evaluation and pressure inherit status evaluation is conducted on the basis of comprehensive evaluation.
3. The stock market capacity evaluation system is established. Combining the research of ecological carrying capacity evaluation method, establishes the stock market capacity evaluation index system. System includes two sub-system and 19 index, the index can more comprehensive, science, system reflect the operating condition of the stock market, the establishment of index system for the whole study to lay a solid foundation.
4. An empirical research on Chinese stock market capacity is carried out. 2000 and 2010 stock market operation of the stock market capacity empirical research, analysis evaluates their respectively in the stock market resources supply capacity and pressure condition, and under the evaluation of stock market based on the operation status of future made the forecast. Combined with the actual 2000 and 2010, the rationality of the evaluation system of verified, scientific and practical.
5. Summary and prospect are given in the end. This part summarizes the research situation of the chapters before and the results about the future direction of the research, and combining provides reference to current politics studies, stock market regulatory layer puts forward several Suggestions.
为了更好的发挥股票市场在我国经济建设中的作用,对其稳定发展的相关因素进行研究的必要性和重要性日益突出,本文就是从股票市场的供容能力这一角度切入而进行研究。目前,受一些主客观条件的限制,对股票市场供容能力的研究还比较少,而生态环境学研究中的供容能力研究,即“生态承载力研究”,在国内外都已进行了很多年,取得了大量的成果。鉴于股票市场和生态系统的类同性,本文尝试将“承载力”概念引入股票市场研究,创立“股票市场承载力”这个新概念并建立股票市场承载力评价指标体系。
论文主要包括以下五个部分:
1、股票市场发展概况及相关研究。主要描述了股票市场的发展历程和发展中存在的问题,并简单介绍了股票市场的相关研究。这一部分主要是对股票市场承载力研究必要性的现实依据进行阐述。
2、股票市场承载力评价的相关理论。通过对可持续发展理论、金融生态理论和股票市场的生态特征的阐述,为将承载力概念从生态研究领域引入股票市场做了理论铺垫。在提出股票市场承载力概念之后,对概念内涵的两个方面,即资源承载力及风险承载力进行分析,描述了股票市场承载力的要素,得出了股票市场承载力的评价思路——在对资源供给能力评价和风险承受能力评价的基础上进行综合评价。
3、股票市场承载力评价体系的建立。结合生态承载力评价的相关研究方法,建立股票市场承载力评价指标体系。体系共包括两个一级指标和19个二级指标,这些指标能较全面、科学、系统的反映股市的运行情况。指标体系的建立为整个研究打下了坚实的基础。
4、我国股票市场承载力的实证研究。对2000年至2010年间的股票市场运行情况进行了股票市场承载力实证研究,分别分析评价了各年股票市场资源承载力和风险承载力,并在评价基础上对股市未来的运行状况做了预测。结合2000至2010年的实际情况,验证了评价体系的合理性、科学性和实用性。
5、总结与展望。这一部分总结了之前各个章节的研究情况和成果,对未来的研究方向提供了参考,并结合时政研究的结果,向股票市场的监管层提出了几点建议。
As social capital of adjusting mechanism to reconfigure the barometer of national economy in China stock market since 1990 dec 19, established by the Shanghai stock exchange has gone 20 years began the storm of the course. By 2010 December 30, Chinese stock market has made have 2062 listed companies, 1.3 million households investors, total market capitalization brilliant achievements of the world. However, as a "new and transition" market, China's stock market is still in the stage of exploration in general, maturity also need a very slow process. Current, no matter be market supervision level, emergency mechanism sound or the stock market automatic adjustment ability and market operation condition can achieve a mature market level.
In order to better play the stock market economy in our country, its function in the construction of the steady development of correlative factors on the necessity and importance of the study, this paper is growing from the stock market capacity this perspective and research. At present, some subjective and objective conditions by the restrictions on stock market capacity study also is less, and in the study of ecological environmental capacity study, namely "ecological carrying capacity" on both at home and abroad for many years, made a lot of achievements. In view of the stock market and ecological system, this paper attempts to the kind of same "capacity" concept is introduced in the stock market research, the creation of "stock market capacity" on this new concept and establish the stock market capacity evaluation index system.
This thesis mainly includes the following five parts:
1. The stock market development situation and related research are generalized. This thesis mainly describes the development of the stock market process and the existing problems, and simply introduces the stock market related research. This part of the stock market is mainly based on the necessity of carrying capacity reality described in this paper.
2. The stock market capacity evaluation's theory is put forword. Based on the theories of sustainable development, financial ecological theory and the stock market ecological characteristics, the paper for bearing capacity from ecological research concept into the stock market did theoretical foil. In the stock market after forward, the concept of bearing capacity of the connotation of two aspects namely resources supply capacity and pressure inherit status analysis, describes the bearing capacity of the stock market, it is concluded that the stock market elements of the bearing capacity of evaluation idea -- on resources supply capacity evaluation and pressure inherit status evaluation is conducted on the basis of comprehensive evaluation.
3. The stock market capacity evaluation system is established. Combining the research of ecological carrying capacity evaluation method, establishes the stock market capacity evaluation index system. System includes two sub-system and 19 index, the index can more comprehensive, science, system reflect the operating condition of the stock market, the establishment of index system for the whole study to lay a solid foundation.
4. An empirical research on Chinese stock market capacity is carried out. 2000 and 2010 stock market operation of the stock market capacity empirical research, analysis evaluates their respectively in the stock market resources supply capacity and pressure condition, and under the evaluation of stock market based on the operation status of future made the forecast. Combined with the actual 2000 and 2010, the rationality of the evaluation system of verified, scientific and practical.
5. Summary and prospect are given in the end. This part summarizes the research situation of the chapters before and the results about the future direction of the research, and combining provides reference to current politics studies, stock market regulatory layer puts forward several Suggestions.
引文
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[1]孟庆福.股票市场过度投机的综合评价研究.吉林大学社会科学学报,2003(1):106-110.
[2] Finance For Growth:Policy Choices In AVolatile World[M].2001.
[3]梁定邦.中国资本市场前瞻.北京:北京大学出版社.2002:553.
[4]高吉喜,可持续发展理论探索.北京:中国环境科学出版社.2001.
[5] Goldsmith,R.W.Financial Structure and Development,New Haven[M],CT:Yale University Press.1969.
[6] Demirguc Kunt,Ross Levine.R.StockMarkets,Corporate Finance and Economic Growth:AnOverview[J].World Bank Eecnomic Review,1996,10(2)223-239.
[7] Harris,R.D.F.Stock Markets and Development:A Reassessment[J],European Economic eview,1997,41(1):139-146.
[8] Fama,Eugene F.Stock Retuns,ExPected Returns,and Real Activity[J]. Journal of Finance,American Finance Association,1990,vol.45(4):1089一1108,September.
[9] Peiro,Amado.Stock prices,production and interest rates:comparison of three European countries with the USA[J].Empirical Economics,1996,21:221-234.
[10] Mukherjee,A.Naka.Dynamic relations between macroeconomic variables And the Japanese stock market:an application of a vector error correction model[J].Journal of Financial Researeh,1995,18:223-237.
[11]陈旭.论中国股票市场和宏观经济的关系.财政监督,2010(9):69-70.
[12]陈婧敏,实体经济与我国股票市场关系研究,2010(9):77-79.
[13]杜江,沈少波.我国股票市场与实体经济的相关性分析.求索,2010(5):27-28.
[14]刘勇.我国股票市场和宏观经济变量关系的经验研究,财贸经济,2004(4).
[15]武文超,王永伟.中国股市收益率与流动性指标之间的关联分析.上海金融, 2010(10):113-116.
[16]贺建清.流动性过剩对股市波动的影响.山东商业会计,2009(4):36-40.
[17]罗登跃,王庆.上海股市收益与流动性风险动态关系实证.哈尔滨工业大学学报, 2009(4):286-287.
[18]储小俊.证券市场流动性、收益与投机性泡沫——基于中国A股市场的实证分析. 2009:59-69.
[19]周晔流.动性变动与股市波动.经济学动态,2009(11):69-74.
[20]雷建,宋烜.浅析流动性过剩背景下的股市泡沫.华东经济管理,2008(2):90-92.
[21]温涛.金融业可持续发展运行机制研究.金融理论与实践,2004(1):28-30.
[22]付会.海洋生态承载力研究:[博士毕业论文].青岛:中国海洋大学.2009.
[23]刘磊.我国证券市场承载力影响因素实证分析.硕士毕业论文,天津财经大学,2008.
[24]刘双.金融生态环境评价及优化路径:[硕士毕业论文].重庆:西南大学, 2009.
[25]苏宁.优化金融环境,改善金融生态.金融信息参考.2005(10):4-6.
[26]李扬.金融生态界说:金融生态概念提出.中国工商.2005(11):37-39.
[27]韩平.加强区域协作,积极推进环渤海地区经济金融发展.港口经济,2006(1):27-28.
[28]王宁,刘平,黄锡欢.生态承载力研究进展.中国农学通报,2004(6):278-281.
[29]王红,张爱军.河北省太行山石灰岩退化山场生物承载力研究.中国农学通报, 2006(4):389-391.
[30]李鹏山,邵小慧.海口市生态足迹与生态承载力研究.海南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010(4):433-436.
[31] Park R F,Burgess E W.An Introduction the Science of Sociology[M].Chicago,1921.
[32] Allan,W.Studies in African Land Useage in Northern Rhodesia[M].Rhodes Livingstone Papers,Cape Town :Oxford University Press,1949(15).
[33] Conklin H.Population Land Balance Under Systems of Tropical Forest Agriculture[J].Proceedings of the Ninh Pacific science Congress of the Pacific Science Association,bangkok,Thail,1957(7):63
[34] Carneiro,Robert.Slash and Burn Agriculture:A Closer Look at its Implications for Settlement Patters[M].Men and Cultures,Anthony F C,Wallace E D.Philadephia:Unversity of Pennsylvania Press,1960,229-234.
[35] Brush,Steohen.The conception of Carrying Capacity for Systems of Shifting Cultivation[J].American Anthropologist,1975(4):799-811.
[36] Gueveara J C,et al.Productivity,manangement and development problems in the arid rangeland central Mendoza plains[J].Journal of Arid Environments,1997(35):575~600.
[37]黄万常,周兴.土地承载力研究的理论与方法综述.资源环境与发展,2009(3):18-21.
[38]郭秀锐,毛显强,冉圣宏.国内环境承载力研究进展.中国人口资源与环境. 2000(S1):29-31.
[39]陈长安,张丽,张惠芬.水环境承载力的研究进展.资源环境与发展,2008(4):19-21.
[40]宋世杰,赵晓光.榆神府矿区开采沉陷损害影响因素的灰色关联分析.工业安全与环保,2010(3):9-10.
[41]刘伟.海岛旅游环境承载力研究.中国人口资源与环境,2010(s2):75-79.
[42]马进,关伟.我国股票市场与宏观经济关系的实证分析.财经问题研究,2006(8):71-75.
[43]杜颖奎,李齐林.CPI和股市指数:基于VAR模型的协整分析.时代经贸,2008(5):21-22.
[44]骆祚炎,刘朝晖.资产结构、收入结构与股市财富效应.财经科学, 2004(4):14.
[45]田波平,房雷.流动性过剩与股市上涨的因素分析.系统工程理论与实践, 2010(2):277-286.
[46]陈虎城.我国超额货币供给现象的影响因素分析.南方金融,2010(11).
[47]任晓靖.中国股市指数与宏观经济运行关系实证研究.硕士毕业论文,首都经贸大学,2008.
[48]吕志勇,张良;.印花税调整对股市的影响——基于上证指数的波动性分析.山东经济,2010(1):91-96.
[49]王自强,海洋经济监测预警模型研究:[硕士毕业论文].青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.
[50]杨华.商业银行营业网点竞争力影响因素研究.金融理论与实践,2010(7):116-120.
[51]殷克东.我国沿海11省市海洋经济综合实力的测评.统计与决策,2011(3):85-89.
[52]岳超源.决策理论与方法.北京:科学出版社,2003(2):204.
2 FinanceForGrowth:PolicyChoicesInAVolatileWorld[M].2001.
3梁定邦.中国资本市场前瞻.北京大学出版社,2002:553.
4《可持续发展理论探索——生态承载力理论、方法与应用》,高吉喜编写.
5 Goldsmith,R.W.FinancialStructureandDevelopment,NewHaven[M],CT:YaleUniversityPress.1969.
6 DemirgucKunt,RossLevine.R.StockMarkets,CorporateFinanceandEconomicGrowth:AnOverview[J].WorldBankEecnomicReview,1996,10(2)223‐239.
7 Harris,R.D.F.StockMarketsandDevelopment:AReassessment[J],EuropeanEconomiceview,1997,41(1):139‐146.
8 Fama,EugeneF.StockRetuns,ExPectedReturns,andRealActivity[J].JournalofFinance,AmericanFinanceAssociation,1990,vol.45(4):1089一1108,September.
9 Peiro,Amado.Stockprices,productionandinterestrates:comparisonofthreeEuropeancountrieswiththeUSA[J].EmpiricalEconomics,1996,21:221‐234.
10 Mukherjee,A.Naka.DynamicrelationsbetweenmacroeconomicvariablesAndtheJapanesestockmarket:anapplicationofavectorerrorcorrectionmodel[J].JournalofFinancialReseareh,1995,18:223‐237.
11陈旭.论中国股票市场和宏观经济的关系.财政监督,2010(9):69‐70.
12陈婧敏,实体经济与我国股票市场关系研究,2010(9):77‐79.
13杜江,沈少波.我国股票市场与实体经济的相关性分析.求索,2010(5):27‐28.
14刘勇.我国股票市场和宏观经济变量关系的经验研究,财贸经济,2004(4).
15武文超,王永伟.中国股市收益率与流动性指标之间的关联分析.上海金融,2010(10):113‐116.
16贺建清.流动性过剩对股市波动的影响.山东商业会计,2009(4):36‐40.
17罗登跃,王庆.上海股市收益与流动性风险动态关系实证.哈尔滨工业大学学报,2009(4):286‐287.
18储小俊.证券市场流动性、收益与投机性泡沫——基于中国A股市场的实证分析.2009:59‐69.
19周晔流.动性变动与股市波动.经济学动态,2009(11):69‐74.
20雷建,宋烜.浅析流动性过剩背景下的股市泡沫.华东经济管理,2008(2):90‐92.
21温涛.金融业可持续发展运行机制研究.金融理论与实践,2004(1):28‐30.
22付会.海洋生态承载力研究.博士毕业论文,中国海洋大学.2009.
23刘磊.我国证券市场承载力影响因素实证分析.硕士毕业论文,天津财经大学,2008.
24刘双.金融生态环境评价及优化路径——重庆个案.硕士毕业论文,西南大学,2009.
25苏宁.优化金融环境,改善金融生态.金融信息参考.2005(10):4‐6.
26李扬.金融生态界说:金融生态概念提出.中国工商.2005(11):37‐39.
27韩平.加强区域协作,积极推进环渤海地区经济金融发展.港口经济,2006(1):27‐28.
28王宁,刘平,黄锡欢.生态承载力研究进展.中国农学通报,2004(6):278‐281.
29王红,张爱军.河北省太行山石灰岩退化山场生物承载力研究.中国农学通报,2006(4):389‐391.
30李鹏山,邵小慧.海口市生态足迹与生态承载力研究.海南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010(4):433‐436.
31 ParkRF,BurgessEW.AnIntroductiontheScienceofSociology[M].Chicago,1921.
32 Allan,W.StudiesinAfricanLandUseageinNorthernRhodesia[M].RhodesLivingstonePapers,Capeown:OxfordUniversityPress,1949(15).
33 ConklinH.PopulationLandBalanceUnderSystemsofTropicalForestAgriculture[J].ProceedingsoftheNinhPacificscienceCongressofthePacificScienceAssociation,bangkok,Thail,1957(7):63
34 Carneiro,Robert.SlashandBurnAgriculture:ACloserLookatitsImplicationsforSettlementPatters[M].MenandCultures,AnthonyFC,WallaceED.Philadephia:UnversityofPennsylvaniaPress,1960,229~234.
35 Brush,Steohen.TheconceptionofCarryingCapacityforSystemsofShiftingCultivation[J].AmericanAnthropologist,1975(4):799~811.
36 GuevearaJC,etal.Productivity,manangementanddevelopmentproblemsinthearidrangelandcentralMendozaplains[J].JournalofAridEnvironments,1997(35):575~600.
37黄万常,周兴.土地承载力研究的理论与方法综述.资源环境与发展,2009(3):18‐21.
38郭秀锐,毛显强,冉圣宏.国内环境承载力研究进展.中国人口资源与环境.2000(S1):29‐31.
39陈长安,张丽,张惠芬.水环境承载力的研究进展.资源环境与发展,2008(4):19‐21.
40宋世杰,赵晓光.榆神府矿区开采沉陷损害影响因素的灰色关联分析.工业安全与环保,2010(3):9‐10.
41刘伟.海岛旅游环境承载力研究.中国人口资源与环境,2010(s2):75‐79.
42马进,关伟.我国股票市场与宏观经济关系的实证分析.财经问题研究,2006(8):71‐75.
43杜颖奎,李齐林.CPI和股市指数:基于VAR模型的协整分析.时代经贸,2008(5):21‐22.
44骆祚炎,刘朝晖.资产结构、收入结构与股市财富效应.财经科学,2004(4):14.
45田波平,房雷.流动性过剩与股市上涨的因素分析.系统工程理论与实践,2010(2):277‐286.
46陈虎城.我国超额货币供给现象的影响因素分析.南方金融,2010(11).
47任晓靖.中国股市指数与宏观经济运行关系实证研究.硕士毕业论文,首都经贸大学,2008.
48吕志勇,张良;.印花税调整对股市的影响——基于上证指数的波动性分析.山东经济,2010(1):91‐96.
49王自强,海洋经济监测预警模型研究(2010).
50杨华.商业银行营业网点竞争力影响因素研究.金融理论与实践,2010(7):116~120.
[1]孟庆福.股票市场过度投机的综合评价研究.吉林大学社会科学学报,2003(1):106-110.
[2] Finance For Growth:Policy Choices In AVolatile World[M].2001.
[3]梁定邦.中国资本市场前瞻.北京:北京大学出版社.2002:553.
[4]高吉喜,可持续发展理论探索.北京:中国环境科学出版社.2001.
[5] Goldsmith,R.W.Financial Structure and Development,New Haven[M],CT:Yale University Press.1969.
[6] Demirguc Kunt,Ross Levine.R.StockMarkets,Corporate Finance and Economic Growth:AnOverview[J].World Bank Eecnomic Review,1996,10(2)223-239.
[7] Harris,R.D.F.Stock Markets and Development:A Reassessment[J],European Economic eview,1997,41(1):139-146.
[8] Fama,Eugene F.Stock Retuns,ExPected Returns,and Real Activity[J]. Journal of Finance,American Finance Association,1990,vol.45(4):1089一1108,September.
[9] Peiro,Amado.Stock prices,production and interest rates:comparison of three European countries with the USA[J].Empirical Economics,1996,21:221-234.
[10] Mukherjee,A.Naka.Dynamic relations between macroeconomic variables And the Japanese stock market:an application of a vector error correction model[J].Journal of Financial Researeh,1995,18:223-237.
[11]陈旭.论中国股票市场和宏观经济的关系.财政监督,2010(9):69-70.
[12]陈婧敏,实体经济与我国股票市场关系研究,2010(9):77-79.
[13]杜江,沈少波.我国股票市场与实体经济的相关性分析.求索,2010(5):27-28.
[14]刘勇.我国股票市场和宏观经济变量关系的经验研究,财贸经济,2004(4).
[15]武文超,王永伟.中国股市收益率与流动性指标之间的关联分析.上海金融, 2010(10):113-116.
[16]贺建清.流动性过剩对股市波动的影响.山东商业会计,2009(4):36-40.
[17]罗登跃,王庆.上海股市收益与流动性风险动态关系实证.哈尔滨工业大学学报, 2009(4):286-287.
[18]储小俊.证券市场流动性、收益与投机性泡沫——基于中国A股市场的实证分析. 2009:59-69.
[19]周晔流.动性变动与股市波动.经济学动态,2009(11):69-74.
[20]雷建,宋烜.浅析流动性过剩背景下的股市泡沫.华东经济管理,2008(2):90-92.
[21]温涛.金融业可持续发展运行机制研究.金融理论与实践,2004(1):28-30.
[22]付会.海洋生态承载力研究:[博士毕业论文].青岛:中国海洋大学.2009.
[23]刘磊.我国证券市场承载力影响因素实证分析.硕士毕业论文,天津财经大学,2008.
[24]刘双.金融生态环境评价及优化路径:[硕士毕业论文].重庆:西南大学, 2009.
[25]苏宁.优化金融环境,改善金融生态.金融信息参考.2005(10):4-6.
[26]李扬.金融生态界说:金融生态概念提出.中国工商.2005(11):37-39.
[27]韩平.加强区域协作,积极推进环渤海地区经济金融发展.港口经济,2006(1):27-28.
[28]王宁,刘平,黄锡欢.生态承载力研究进展.中国农学通报,2004(6):278-281.
[29]王红,张爱军.河北省太行山石灰岩退化山场生物承载力研究.中国农学通报, 2006(4):389-391.
[30]李鹏山,邵小慧.海口市生态足迹与生态承载力研究.海南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010(4):433-436.
[31] Park R F,Burgess E W.An Introduction the Science of Sociology[M].Chicago,1921.
[32] Allan,W.Studies in African Land Useage in Northern Rhodesia[M].Rhodes Livingstone Papers,Cape Town :Oxford University Press,1949(15).
[33] Conklin H.Population Land Balance Under Systems of Tropical Forest Agriculture[J].Proceedings of the Ninh Pacific science Congress of the Pacific Science Association,bangkok,Thail,1957(7):63
[34] Carneiro,Robert.Slash and Burn Agriculture:A Closer Look at its Implications for Settlement Patters[M].Men and Cultures,Anthony F C,Wallace E D.Philadephia:Unversity of Pennsylvania Press,1960,229-234.
[35] Brush,Steohen.The conception of Carrying Capacity for Systems of Shifting Cultivation[J].American Anthropologist,1975(4):799-811.
[36] Gueveara J C,et al.Productivity,manangement and development problems in the arid rangeland central Mendoza plains[J].Journal of Arid Environments,1997(35):575~600.
[37]黄万常,周兴.土地承载力研究的理论与方法综述.资源环境与发展,2009(3):18-21.
[38]郭秀锐,毛显强,冉圣宏.国内环境承载力研究进展.中国人口资源与环境. 2000(S1):29-31.
[39]陈长安,张丽,张惠芬.水环境承载力的研究进展.资源环境与发展,2008(4):19-21.
[40]宋世杰,赵晓光.榆神府矿区开采沉陷损害影响因素的灰色关联分析.工业安全与环保,2010(3):9-10.
[41]刘伟.海岛旅游环境承载力研究.中国人口资源与环境,2010(s2):75-79.
[42]马进,关伟.我国股票市场与宏观经济关系的实证分析.财经问题研究,2006(8):71-75.
[43]杜颖奎,李齐林.CPI和股市指数:基于VAR模型的协整分析.时代经贸,2008(5):21-22.
[44]骆祚炎,刘朝晖.资产结构、收入结构与股市财富效应.财经科学, 2004(4):14.
[45]田波平,房雷.流动性过剩与股市上涨的因素分析.系统工程理论与实践, 2010(2):277-286.
[46]陈虎城.我国超额货币供给现象的影响因素分析.南方金融,2010(11).
[47]任晓靖.中国股市指数与宏观经济运行关系实证研究.硕士毕业论文,首都经贸大学,2008.
[48]吕志勇,张良;.印花税调整对股市的影响——基于上证指数的波动性分析.山东经济,2010(1):91-96.
[49]王自强,海洋经济监测预警模型研究:[硕士毕业论文].青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.
[50]杨华.商业银行营业网点竞争力影响因素研究.金融理论与实践,2010(7):116-120.
[51]殷克东.我国沿海11省市海洋经济综合实力的测评.统计与决策,2011(3):85-89.
[52]岳超源.决策理论与方法.北京:科学出版社,2003(2):204.