中国贸易成本测度研究
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摘要
本文选题来源于教育部人文社科研究规划项目《中国贸易成本估计及其效应的经验分析》(项目编号为：09YJAT790090)。
随着国际贸易的不断发展和贸易理论的不断创新,贸易成本已成为“新贸易理论”、“新经济地理理论”、“新新贸易理论”的核心概念。贸易成本的研究是目前国内外理论界研究的热点之一。而当前关于贸易成本的度量主要指的是狭义的经济成本,而没有考虑广义的生态环境成本。科学度量贸易的经济成本及生态成本是正确运用“新经济地理理论”、“新新贸易理论”并科学制定贸易、经济与环境协调发展政策的基本前提。
文章主要围绕以下几方面展开了研究：(1)相关文献回顾及评述。就贸易的经济成本及生态成本中关于成本测度及影响因素等与本研究密切相关的中外研究文献进行了回顾,并在此基础上进行了评述。(2)贸易成本的相关理论。首先就测度贸易的经济成本相关模型进行了分析,即传统的引力模型、考虑运输成本的引力模型及修正的贸易经济成本引力模型。而后就贸易的生态成本相关理论,包括考虑环境要素的比较优势理论、环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论解释以及贸易的生态成本影响因素等方面进行了探讨。(3)贸易的经济成本测度。首先,就我国对外贸易发展总体情况进行了基本分析,包括贸易的方式、商品结构、市场结构以及我国的服务贸易。而后就贸易的经济成本计算方法进行了分析,探讨了贸易经济成本测度模型,并以制造业为考察对象,度量了我国贸易的经济成本。(4)贸易的生态成本测度。首先就我国能源消费现状进行了分析,计算了我国的直接生态成本。进而就贸易的生态成本计算方法进行了分析,探讨了贸易生态成本测度模型,并以贸易隐含C02排放量为生态成本指标,基于OECD投入产出表测算出1995-2008年我国贸易的生态成本。(5)贸易的生态成本与经济增长的关系。以贸易的生态成本为考察对象,构建了其与经济增长关系的行业面板模型,在对数据进行单位根检验和协整分析的基础上,采用面板混合最小二乘估计方法(PLS),对贸易的生态成本与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。(6)影响中国贸易的生态成本因素分析。首先根据贸易的生态成本计算结果,分析了本国贸易生态条件。而后采用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI I)将我国贸易的生态成本影响因素分解为规模效应、结构效应及技术效应。并进一步从技术创新及技术引进两个角度,采用计量模型就技术进步对贸易的生态成本影响进行实证分析。
文章主要得出了以下几点结论：(1)贸易的经济成本呈现下降态势。中国与主要贸易伙伴的贸易经济成本在制造业各产业上都表现出不同程度的逐年下降趋势,且在制造业所有的产业中,高技术型制成品贸易经济成本最低,下降幅度也最大。在主要贸易伙伴中,中国与日本、韩国贸易的经济成本则低于欧美国家。中国与欧美等发达国家之间尚存在较大的技术“鸿沟”,高技术产业仍处于国际产品内分工的低端环节。因此,应着力减少贸易的经济成本,嵌入高端产业价值链,进而优化中国贸易结构。(2)加入WTO后,我国粗放式的对外贸易增长方式,加重了国内日益严峻的环境资源压力,中国贸易的生态成本显著上升。因此,应摒弃以不断扩张出口规模、追求贸易顺差为导向的外贸发展策略,转向不断改善我国贸易结构。(3)贸易的生态成本与经济增长之间呈现“倒U”型关系。在经济发展的早期阶段,贸易的生态成本将随着经济的增长而增加；而当经济发展到一定阶段后,随着经济规模的扩大,贸易的生态成本将呈现下降趋势。因此,即使在经济发展的早期阶段,仍需要采取一定的政策措施减少本国污染排放、防止生态退化过度,避免在后期环境污染不可逆的状况出现。(4)规模效应、结构效应、技术效应共同作用影响着贸易的生态成本变化。贸易生态成本影响因素的分解结果指出贸易的生态成本始终维持正的规模效应,且相较结构相应及技术效应,出口规模的扩大是贸易生态成本增加最重要的因素。结构效应总体上显得较小,且影响不确定。技术效应基本为负,对降低贸易生态成本有着积极的作用,但其提升的幅度很小,导致技术效应不明显。而技术进步对贸易生态成本的实证分析表明,在开放经济条件下,技术创新及技术引进均能够抑制贸易的生态成本上升,两者1%的增加分别能带来0.1%和2.22%的贸易的生态成本下降。因此,应着力提高本国技术水平,加大科技创新的投入并着力引进国外的先进技术。
与国内外同类研究相比,文章研究的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面：(1)研究内容的创新。首先本文将贸易成本分解为经济成本和生态成本分别展开研究,而以往关于贸易成本的研究,多是针对贸易的经济成本,并未考虑到贸易的生态成本；或是单就贸易对生态的影响进行分析,而未将其纳入贸易成本的概念。事实上,贸易的经济成本通过贸易活动的变化会对其生态成本造成影响。故本文对贸易的经济成本与生态成本进行了综合的考量,在此基础上提出了促进我国贸易、经济与环境健康发展的对策,具有一定的创新性。其次,本文着重从中观层面即制造业各行业来测度中国多边贸易的经济成本,而多数文献主要从宏观层面来度量中国贸易经济成本,且多为双边贸易经济成本的分析。(2)研究视角的创新。关于环境与经济增长的关系研究方面,多数文献均以生产过程中的污染排放为考核指标,而本文则以贸易的生态成本为分析对象,探讨了贸易生态成本与经济增长的关系。(3)研究方法的创新。目前国内关于贸易的经济成本估算的研究基本上都是采用Novy(2006)的改进引力模型,该模型虽然能够解决Anderson&Wincoop (2003)模型中用不可直接观测的价格指数作为多边阻力项所产生的问题,但其假设仍然是基于双边贸易经济成本具有“对称”性,这一假设显然与现实情况还是存在差异的。而本文采用的Novy (2008)的贸易经济成本估计模型将双边模型扩展到多边模型,且考虑到了可贸易品与不可贸易品,在很大程度上改善了传统引力模型和现有具备理论基础的引力模型的缺陷,因此更具有科学性。
在研究的过程中,文章仍存在一些不足之处,主要包括：(1)贸易经济成本的测度未将发展中国家考虑在内。由于数据获取的困难,仅估算了中国与14个发达国家制造业的贸易经济成本。如果样本容量能把发展中国家包括在内,并扩展时期跨度,将有助于更为全面完整地分析中国贸易经济成本的变动关系,因地制宜地制定产品、国别差异化的贸易及产业等政策。(2)未能获得贸易进口生态成本的原始数据。文章在计算贸易进口生态成本的过程中,是基于进口国碳排放技术同质的假设,从替代效应的角度,用本国的隐含碳完全排放系数来计算进口隐含碳排放量,并在此基础上对本国贸易生态成本进行分析。(3)贸易生态成本指标度量存在一定的单一性。本文仅以CO2排放为考察指标,分析了本国贸易的生态成本。事实上贸易生态成本还包括“三废”,即废水、废气及固体废物。
With the continuous development of the international trade and innovation of trade theories, trade costs has become the core concept of "new trade theory", the "new economic geographic theory","new new trade theory". It becomes one of the hot issues to research into in the theory circles at home and abroad. Narrowly speaking, the current measure of the trade costs mainly refers to the economic costs, without considering the ecological costs in a broad sense. Scientifically measuring economic costs and ecological costs of trade lays the foundation for correctly using the "new economic geographic theory","new new trade theory" and scientifically making policies that facilitate the coordinated development of the trade, economy and environment.
This paper studies mainly from the following aspects:(1) Literature review and comments. Review has been undertaken among the related Chinese and foreign researches concerning the costs measure and its influencing factors of the economic and ecological costs in trade. Based on it, comments are made.(2) Trade costs related theories. First, models related to measuring economic costs in trade, such as traditional gravity model, transportation-included gravity models and modified gravity model, have been analyzed. And then theories regarding the trade ecological costs, have been discussed, including comparative advantage theory considering environmental factors, theoretical analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the factors influencing the trade ecological costs.(3) The measurement of China's trade economic costs. First, analyses of the overall situation of China's foreign trade development including trade patterns, commodity structure, market structure and China's service trade have been presented. And then another analysis of the calculating method of trade economic costs has been made, followed by a discussion on the measuring model of trade economic costs. Furthermore, the manufacturing industry has been used as an example to measure the trade economic costs of our country.(4) The measurement of China's trade ecological costs. First, China's current energy consumption has been analyzed and the direct ecological costs of our country have been calculated. And then the calculating method of the trade ecological costs has been analyzed and the measuring model of the trade ecological costs also are discussed. Regarding the implied emission amount of CO2as the ecological costs index and based on the OECD input-output table, this paper shows China's trade ecological costs in1995-2008.(5) The relationship between the trade ecological costs and economic growth. With the trade ecological costs, this paper has built the industry panel model showing the relationship between the economic growth and the trade ecological costs. Based on cointegration analysis and unit root test of the data and adopting the PLS, the paper has proven right the analysis of the relationship between the economic growth and the trade ecological costs.(6) The factors influencing China's trade ecological costs. First, according to the results of the trade ecological costs, China's trade ecological conditions have been analyzed. Then with the Log-Mean Divisia Index Method (LMDI I), the factors influencing the China's trade ecological costs has been decomposed into scale effects, structural effects and technical effects. And from the point of view of technology innovation and technology introduction,the effect of technological progress on the ecological costs of trade has been proven right by adopting econometric models.
The following conclusions have been drawn from this paper:(1) The trade economic costs show a downward trend. The trade economic costs between China and its major trade partners in the manufacturing industries has shown a declining trend, and among all the industries in the manufacturing, high-tech products have the lowest trade costs and also decline at the largest range. Among the major trade partners, compared with the western countries, economic costs are lower in Japan, South Korea and China. There is a great technology gap between China and European and American countries. Chinese high technology manufactured goods are at the low position in the international specialization.. Therefore, we should focus on reducing the trade economic costs, embedding high position industry value chains, and improving China's trade structure.(2) After joining the WTO, China's extensive foreign trade growing mode has been adding increasingly heavier pressure on domestic environment and resource supply. China's trade ecological costs have increased significantly. Therefore, we should abandon the foreign trade development strategy of the continuous expansion of export volumes and the pursuit of trade surplus, turning to improve China's trade structure.(3) The "inverted U" shaped relationship between the trade ecological costs and economic growth. In the early stages of economic development, the ecological costs increases with economic growth; but after a certain stage of economic development, as the economy grows the trade ecological costs show a downward trend. Thus, even in the early stages of economic development, we still need to take certain measures to reduce pollution emissions, to prevent excessive ecological degradation, avoiding irreversible environmental pollution in the later period of economic development.(4) Scale, structural and technology effects influence the changes of trade ecological costs. The results of the decomposition of the factors affecting the trade ecological costs indicate that the trade ecological costs have remained positive scale effects. Compared with structural and technology effects, the expansion of export is the most important factor of the increasing trade ecological costs. Structural effects seem smaller on the whole and the impact seems uncertain. Technology effects basically remain negative, playing a positive role in reducing ecological costs, but only can be limitedly improved, which leads to a small technology effect. The analysis of the influences of technological progress on the ecological costs of trade shows innovating and introducing technology can both contribute to prevent the increase of the trade ecological costs in the opening economy. The1%increase in both of them can decrease the ecological costs of trade by0.1%and2.22%respectively. Therefore, we should attach great importance to improving our skills and increasing the investment in technological innovation and at the same time introducing foreign advanced technology.
Compared with similar literatures, this paper has some innovative point:(l)The innovation of the research content. Firstly, this article has divided trade costs into economic costs and ecological costs while previous researches on trade costs, mostly focus on economic costs, without taking into account the trade ecological costs; or solely on trade's effects on ecology, without treating it as part of the concept of trade costs. In fact, the trade economic costs would impact ecological costs through trade activities, So, based on a comprehensive analysis of economic costs and ecological costs, this paper puts forward policies to promote our trade, economy development and environmental health. Secondly, this paper has measured the economic costs of China's multilateral trade from the point of view of the various manufacturing industries while other researches only measure it from a macro and bilateral point of view.(2)The innovation of perspectives. Among the researches concerning the relationship between environment and economic growth, many use pollution emissions during the manufacturing process as the standard. However, this paper employs the trade ecological costs to explore the relationship between the ecological costs and economic growth.(3) The Innovation of research methods. Basically current Chinese researchers all adopted the modified gravity model of the Novy (2006) when evaluating the trade economic costs. Though this model can solve the problems of the Anderson&Wincoop (2003) model that result from using not directly observed price index as the multilateral resistance term, its assumptions are still based on the symmetry in bilateral trade costs. Obviously there are differences between this assumption and the reality. This paper uses Novy Model(2008) to evaluate the economic costs of trade and extends it from bilateral model to multilateral model, which to a large extent improves traditiona gravity model and current theory-based gravity model. Thus, it's more scientific.
This paper still has some shortcomings, including:(1) When measuring the trade economic costs, developing countries isn't included. Because of the difficulty in data collecting, the paper has only estimated the trade economic costs of manufacturing14developed countries and China. If developing countries of various periods can be included, it will help to outline a more comprehensive analysis of the changes in China's trade economic costs. Then, we can make products more appropriate to different demands varied from different regions and countries.(2) Failing to obtain the original data of ecological costs of import. When calculating the ecological costs of import, this paper is based on the assumption of importing country's homogeneity of carbon-emitting technologies. From the view of substitution effect, Chan's implied carbon emission indexes are used to those of the import, based on which the analysis of China's trade ecological costs is presented.(3) Measuring indicators of the trade ecological costs has singleness. This article only uses the CO2emissions as the index to analyze China's trade ecological costs. In fact the trade ecological costs still include the "three wastes", that is, waste water, waste gas and solid waste.
随着国际贸易的不断发展和贸易理论的不断创新,贸易成本已成为“新贸易理论”、“新经济地理理论”、“新新贸易理论”的核心概念。贸易成本的研究是目前国内外理论界研究的热点之一。而当前关于贸易成本的度量主要指的是狭义的经济成本,而没有考虑广义的生态环境成本。科学度量贸易的经济成本及生态成本是正确运用“新经济地理理论”、“新新贸易理论”并科学制定贸易、经济与环境协调发展政策的基本前提。
文章主要围绕以下几方面展开了研究：(1)相关文献回顾及评述。就贸易的经济成本及生态成本中关于成本测度及影响因素等与本研究密切相关的中外研究文献进行了回顾,并在此基础上进行了评述。(2)贸易成本的相关理论。首先就测度贸易的经济成本相关模型进行了分析,即传统的引力模型、考虑运输成本的引力模型及修正的贸易经济成本引力模型。而后就贸易的生态成本相关理论,包括考虑环境要素的比较优势理论、环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论解释以及贸易的生态成本影响因素等方面进行了探讨。(3)贸易的经济成本测度。首先,就我国对外贸易发展总体情况进行了基本分析,包括贸易的方式、商品结构、市场结构以及我国的服务贸易。而后就贸易的经济成本计算方法进行了分析,探讨了贸易经济成本测度模型,并以制造业为考察对象,度量了我国贸易的经济成本。(4)贸易的生态成本测度。首先就我国能源消费现状进行了分析,计算了我国的直接生态成本。进而就贸易的生态成本计算方法进行了分析,探讨了贸易生态成本测度模型,并以贸易隐含C02排放量为生态成本指标,基于OECD投入产出表测算出1995-2008年我国贸易的生态成本。(5)贸易的生态成本与经济增长的关系。以贸易的生态成本为考察对象,构建了其与经济增长关系的行业面板模型,在对数据进行单位根检验和协整分析的基础上,采用面板混合最小二乘估计方法(PLS),对贸易的生态成本与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。(6)影响中国贸易的生态成本因素分析。首先根据贸易的生态成本计算结果,分析了本国贸易生态条件。而后采用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI I)将我国贸易的生态成本影响因素分解为规模效应、结构效应及技术效应。并进一步从技术创新及技术引进两个角度,采用计量模型就技术进步对贸易的生态成本影响进行实证分析。
文章主要得出了以下几点结论：(1)贸易的经济成本呈现下降态势。中国与主要贸易伙伴的贸易经济成本在制造业各产业上都表现出不同程度的逐年下降趋势,且在制造业所有的产业中,高技术型制成品贸易经济成本最低,下降幅度也最大。在主要贸易伙伴中,中国与日本、韩国贸易的经济成本则低于欧美国家。中国与欧美等发达国家之间尚存在较大的技术“鸿沟”,高技术产业仍处于国际产品内分工的低端环节。因此,应着力减少贸易的经济成本,嵌入高端产业价值链,进而优化中国贸易结构。(2)加入WTO后,我国粗放式的对外贸易增长方式,加重了国内日益严峻的环境资源压力,中国贸易的生态成本显著上升。因此,应摒弃以不断扩张出口规模、追求贸易顺差为导向的外贸发展策略,转向不断改善我国贸易结构。(3)贸易的生态成本与经济增长之间呈现“倒U”型关系。在经济发展的早期阶段,贸易的生态成本将随着经济的增长而增加；而当经济发展到一定阶段后,随着经济规模的扩大,贸易的生态成本将呈现下降趋势。因此,即使在经济发展的早期阶段,仍需要采取一定的政策措施减少本国污染排放、防止生态退化过度,避免在后期环境污染不可逆的状况出现。(4)规模效应、结构效应、技术效应共同作用影响着贸易的生态成本变化。贸易生态成本影响因素的分解结果指出贸易的生态成本始终维持正的规模效应,且相较结构相应及技术效应,出口规模的扩大是贸易生态成本增加最重要的因素。结构效应总体上显得较小,且影响不确定。技术效应基本为负,对降低贸易生态成本有着积极的作用,但其提升的幅度很小,导致技术效应不明显。而技术进步对贸易生态成本的实证分析表明,在开放经济条件下,技术创新及技术引进均能够抑制贸易的生态成本上升,两者1%的增加分别能带来0.1%和2.22%的贸易的生态成本下降。因此,应着力提高本国技术水平,加大科技创新的投入并着力引进国外的先进技术。
与国内外同类研究相比,文章研究的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面：(1)研究内容的创新。首先本文将贸易成本分解为经济成本和生态成本分别展开研究,而以往关于贸易成本的研究,多是针对贸易的经济成本,并未考虑到贸易的生态成本；或是单就贸易对生态的影响进行分析,而未将其纳入贸易成本的概念。事实上,贸易的经济成本通过贸易活动的变化会对其生态成本造成影响。故本文对贸易的经济成本与生态成本进行了综合的考量,在此基础上提出了促进我国贸易、经济与环境健康发展的对策,具有一定的创新性。其次,本文着重从中观层面即制造业各行业来测度中国多边贸易的经济成本,而多数文献主要从宏观层面来度量中国贸易经济成本,且多为双边贸易经济成本的分析。(2)研究视角的创新。关于环境与经济增长的关系研究方面,多数文献均以生产过程中的污染排放为考核指标,而本文则以贸易的生态成本为分析对象,探讨了贸易生态成本与经济增长的关系。(3)研究方法的创新。目前国内关于贸易的经济成本估算的研究基本上都是采用Novy(2006)的改进引力模型,该模型虽然能够解决Anderson&Wincoop (2003)模型中用不可直接观测的价格指数作为多边阻力项所产生的问题,但其假设仍然是基于双边贸易经济成本具有“对称”性,这一假设显然与现实情况还是存在差异的。而本文采用的Novy (2008)的贸易经济成本估计模型将双边模型扩展到多边模型,且考虑到了可贸易品与不可贸易品,在很大程度上改善了传统引力模型和现有具备理论基础的引力模型的缺陷,因此更具有科学性。
在研究的过程中,文章仍存在一些不足之处,主要包括：(1)贸易经济成本的测度未将发展中国家考虑在内。由于数据获取的困难,仅估算了中国与14个发达国家制造业的贸易经济成本。如果样本容量能把发展中国家包括在内,并扩展时期跨度,将有助于更为全面完整地分析中国贸易经济成本的变动关系,因地制宜地制定产品、国别差异化的贸易及产业等政策。(2)未能获得贸易进口生态成本的原始数据。文章在计算贸易进口生态成本的过程中,是基于进口国碳排放技术同质的假设,从替代效应的角度,用本国的隐含碳完全排放系数来计算进口隐含碳排放量,并在此基础上对本国贸易生态成本进行分析。(3)贸易生态成本指标度量存在一定的单一性。本文仅以CO2排放为考察指标,分析了本国贸易的生态成本。事实上贸易生态成本还包括“三废”,即废水、废气及固体废物。
With the continuous development of the international trade and innovation of trade theories, trade costs has become the core concept of "new trade theory", the "new economic geographic theory","new new trade theory". It becomes one of the hot issues to research into in the theory circles at home and abroad. Narrowly speaking, the current measure of the trade costs mainly refers to the economic costs, without considering the ecological costs in a broad sense. Scientifically measuring economic costs and ecological costs of trade lays the foundation for correctly using the "new economic geographic theory","new new trade theory" and scientifically making policies that facilitate the coordinated development of the trade, economy and environment.
This paper studies mainly from the following aspects:(1) Literature review and comments. Review has been undertaken among the related Chinese and foreign researches concerning the costs measure and its influencing factors of the economic and ecological costs in trade. Based on it, comments are made.(2) Trade costs related theories. First, models related to measuring economic costs in trade, such as traditional gravity model, transportation-included gravity models and modified gravity model, have been analyzed. And then theories regarding the trade ecological costs, have been discussed, including comparative advantage theory considering environmental factors, theoretical analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the factors influencing the trade ecological costs.(3) The measurement of China's trade economic costs. First, analyses of the overall situation of China's foreign trade development including trade patterns, commodity structure, market structure and China's service trade have been presented. And then another analysis of the calculating method of trade economic costs has been made, followed by a discussion on the measuring model of trade economic costs. Furthermore, the manufacturing industry has been used as an example to measure the trade economic costs of our country.(4) The measurement of China's trade ecological costs. First, China's current energy consumption has been analyzed and the direct ecological costs of our country have been calculated. And then the calculating method of the trade ecological costs has been analyzed and the measuring model of the trade ecological costs also are discussed. Regarding the implied emission amount of CO2as the ecological costs index and based on the OECD input-output table, this paper shows China's trade ecological costs in1995-2008.(5) The relationship between the trade ecological costs and economic growth. With the trade ecological costs, this paper has built the industry panel model showing the relationship between the economic growth and the trade ecological costs. Based on cointegration analysis and unit root test of the data and adopting the PLS, the paper has proven right the analysis of the relationship between the economic growth and the trade ecological costs.(6) The factors influencing China's trade ecological costs. First, according to the results of the trade ecological costs, China's trade ecological conditions have been analyzed. Then with the Log-Mean Divisia Index Method (LMDI I), the factors influencing the China's trade ecological costs has been decomposed into scale effects, structural effects and technical effects. And from the point of view of technology innovation and technology introduction,the effect of technological progress on the ecological costs of trade has been proven right by adopting econometric models.
The following conclusions have been drawn from this paper:(1) The trade economic costs show a downward trend. The trade economic costs between China and its major trade partners in the manufacturing industries has shown a declining trend, and among all the industries in the manufacturing, high-tech products have the lowest trade costs and also decline at the largest range. Among the major trade partners, compared with the western countries, economic costs are lower in Japan, South Korea and China. There is a great technology gap between China and European and American countries. Chinese high technology manufactured goods are at the low position in the international specialization.. Therefore, we should focus on reducing the trade economic costs, embedding high position industry value chains, and improving China's trade structure.(2) After joining the WTO, China's extensive foreign trade growing mode has been adding increasingly heavier pressure on domestic environment and resource supply. China's trade ecological costs have increased significantly. Therefore, we should abandon the foreign trade development strategy of the continuous expansion of export volumes and the pursuit of trade surplus, turning to improve China's trade structure.(3) The "inverted U" shaped relationship between the trade ecological costs and economic growth. In the early stages of economic development, the ecological costs increases with economic growth; but after a certain stage of economic development, as the economy grows the trade ecological costs show a downward trend. Thus, even in the early stages of economic development, we still need to take certain measures to reduce pollution emissions, to prevent excessive ecological degradation, avoiding irreversible environmental pollution in the later period of economic development.(4) Scale, structural and technology effects influence the changes of trade ecological costs. The results of the decomposition of the factors affecting the trade ecological costs indicate that the trade ecological costs have remained positive scale effects. Compared with structural and technology effects, the expansion of export is the most important factor of the increasing trade ecological costs. Structural effects seem smaller on the whole and the impact seems uncertain. Technology effects basically remain negative, playing a positive role in reducing ecological costs, but only can be limitedly improved, which leads to a small technology effect. The analysis of the influences of technological progress on the ecological costs of trade shows innovating and introducing technology can both contribute to prevent the increase of the trade ecological costs in the opening economy. The1%increase in both of them can decrease the ecological costs of trade by0.1%and2.22%respectively. Therefore, we should attach great importance to improving our skills and increasing the investment in technological innovation and at the same time introducing foreign advanced technology.
Compared with similar literatures, this paper has some innovative point:(l)The innovation of the research content. Firstly, this article has divided trade costs into economic costs and ecological costs while previous researches on trade costs, mostly focus on economic costs, without taking into account the trade ecological costs; or solely on trade's effects on ecology, without treating it as part of the concept of trade costs. In fact, the trade economic costs would impact ecological costs through trade activities, So, based on a comprehensive analysis of economic costs and ecological costs, this paper puts forward policies to promote our trade, economy development and environmental health. Secondly, this paper has measured the economic costs of China's multilateral trade from the point of view of the various manufacturing industries while other researches only measure it from a macro and bilateral point of view.(2)The innovation of perspectives. Among the researches concerning the relationship between environment and economic growth, many use pollution emissions during the manufacturing process as the standard. However, this paper employs the trade ecological costs to explore the relationship between the ecological costs and economic growth.(3) The Innovation of research methods. Basically current Chinese researchers all adopted the modified gravity model of the Novy (2006) when evaluating the trade economic costs. Though this model can solve the problems of the Anderson&Wincoop (2003) model that result from using not directly observed price index as the multilateral resistance term, its assumptions are still based on the symmetry in bilateral trade costs. Obviously there are differences between this assumption and the reality. This paper uses Novy Model(2008) to evaluate the economic costs of trade and extends it from bilateral model to multilateral model, which to a large extent improves traditiona gravity model and current theory-based gravity model. Thus, it's more scientific.
This paper still has some shortcomings, including:(1) When measuring the trade economic costs, developing countries isn't included. Because of the difficulty in data collecting, the paper has only estimated the trade economic costs of manufacturing14developed countries and China. If developing countries of various periods can be included, it will help to outline a more comprehensive analysis of the changes in China's trade economic costs. Then, we can make products more appropriate to different demands varied from different regions and countries.(2) Failing to obtain the original data of ecological costs of import. When calculating the ecological costs of import, this paper is based on the assumption of importing country's homogeneity of carbon-emitting technologies. From the view of substitution effect, Chan's implied carbon emission indexes are used to those of the import, based on which the analysis of China's trade ecological costs is presented.(3) Measuring indicators of the trade ecological costs has singleness. This article only uses the CO2emissions as the index to analyze China's trade ecological costs. In fact the trade ecological costs still include the "three wastes", that is, waste water, waste gas and solid waste.
引文
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