落叶松人工林大中径材优化经营模式的研究
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摘要
本研究以黑龙江省落叶松人工林为研究对象,应用全省资源清查数据和孟家岗林场所调查的22块标准地95株解析木数据以及造材样木数据。建立了林分生长与收获模型、直径分布模型、削度方程,分析了林分材种出材率和轮伐期,研究了林分密度效应,应用动态规划获得林分最优密度模型,对间伐技术进行了研究,确定了各林分间伐起始期、间隔期和间伐量,应用动态规划对不同培育目标的林分确定了具体的间伐方式,最终综合上述研究获得不同林分培育大中径材的最优经营模式。研究的主要内容包括：
1、以黑龙江省5期固定样地复测数据为基本数据,全面系统地研究了黑龙江省落叶松人工林平均树高、平均直径、林分株数密度、林分断面积、林分蓄积等林分调查因子的生长预估模型。
2、本研究利用已知的立地信息,用区域号作为哑变量,代表样地立地信息,在传统模型中引入此哑变量进行回归,拟合各区域的林分调查因子预估模型。解决了各区域分量与总体总量相容一致性的问题。而且在建立林分断面积和林分蓄积量预测模型时采用了建立非线性度量误差变量联立方程组模型,解决了传统回归模型参数估计无法解决的度量误差参数估计问题。提高了模型的精度。
3、使用独立检验样本数据对本研究所确定的黑龙江省市县林区落叶松人工林收获模型进行检验,结果表明各模型精度高,适用性强,这说明本次构建的全林分生长模型系统具有较高的精度和稳定性。
4、应用建立的林分生长与收获模型,得出不同初植密度和地位级指数下的林分数量成熟龄,落叶松人工林林分的数量成熟龄为20-35年。林分数量成熟龄与地位指数和林分密度成负相关,地位指数高,密度大的林分数量成熟到来的早,且有一定的持续期,随着地位指数的变化,数量成熟龄也随之变化。其中小径材的成熟龄来的较早,而中径材的成熟龄主要集中在30年以上,而大径材只有在50年以上才能成熟。依据相关的造材要求,应用直径分布和削度方程,得到林分各年龄材种的出材率,为确定落叶松工艺成熟龄奠定基础。确定工艺成熟龄为中径材33-40年,大径材为50-55年。采用净现值法计算林分经济成熟,中径材的经济成熟龄为33-41年,大径材经济成熟龄为49-55年,通过敏感性分析发现,对净现值影响最大的因素是木材销售价格,其次是利率的变化,影响最小的是营林成本,而且敏感因素变化对年均净现值的影响随立地等级的降低而增加；即在16地位指数级的条件下,受敏感因素变化的影响最大,因此其面对的风险也最大。综合分析来确定轮伐期。按照上述三种成熟龄,得到以下结论：16地位指数级适合培育中径材,轮伐期为39-41年,18地位指数级培育中径材轮伐期为36-38年,培育大径材的轮伐期为53-55年,20地位指数级培育大径材的轮伐期为49-52年。
5、建立了黑龙江省落叶松人工林林分密度效应模型,对生产弹性和边际效应进行了分析,该模型可以很好的反应立木密度和蓄积量的关系。基于密度效应模型,用动态规划的方法导出落叶松人工林最优密度控制模型,较好的反应了随着林龄和地位指数增大,保留株数减小的客观规律。得出了不同立地条件下林分经营的最优密度。
6、本研究对间伐起始期、间隔期和间伐强度进行了分析,间伐起始期定为树木连年生长量开始下降期,不同立地、不同初植密度林分的抚育间伐开始期不同,抚育间伐的间隔期除受立地条件、初植密度等因素的制约外,还与上次抚育间伐强度有着密切的关系,文中研究发现落叶松间伐起始期一般在18-24年左右,间隔期一般为4-6年,间伐强度以20%-30%为宜。根据上述分析通过动态规划的方法,确定了各林分培育目标材种的具体间伐方式(间伐起始期、下次间伐时间,间伐强度),通过间伐研究发现各立地级上的林分间伐后轮伐期有明显缩短,可以尽快的获得要培育的目标材种,这对提高森林的主伐收益是很有益的。
7、综合上述研究,通过对不同组合模式的比较后,得到了各立地条件下最优的经营模式,16地位级适合培育中径材,3300株/hm2和4400株/hm2的林分都间伐3次就达到成熟,可以进行主伐,而且该模式的经济效益为最大,内部收益率均大于15%；18地位级以培育大径材为主,密度4400株/hm2的林分需要间伐5次而密度3300株/hm2的间伐4次就可以获得最大经济效益；20地位级主要培育大径材,各密度林分经过间伐4-5次后,将获得最大的经济效益。
本研究对于改变我国木材紧缺,加速培育出工业用材林具有重要的意义,为提高落叶松人工林经营水平奠定理论基础。
Based on the data of provincial forest resource inventory and 95 sample trees in 22 sample plots for Larch plantation in Mengjiagang forest farm, stand growth and yield model, the diameter distribution model, taper equation, were established; stand merchant volume ratio and rotation were analysed; the effect of stand density was studied, the best stand density model was obtained to using dynamic programming; thinning techniques were studied to determine the initial, also as the interval period of thinning and the thinning quantity. This paper applies theory of dynamic programming on different cultivate objectives of forest to determine specific thinning ways. Based on the studies, the optimal management model was obtained large and middle diameter timber. The main contents include:
1、Based on the data of fixed sample plot and key ecological forest monitoring plots in heilongjiang province,the growth model of average tree height, average diameter, stand density, stand basal area, stand volume and so on were systematically built.
2、The site information were expressed by dummy variables in the study, the prodictor model of stand factors were fitted by traditional model including dummy variables, to resolve the compatibility problem of components and entire, the model of stand basal area and volume were established with nonlinear measure error simultaneous equations, to solve the traditional regression model parameter estimation question. It improved the precision of the models.
3、The growth and yield model of larch plantation in Heilongjiang were tested by using independent inspection data, the results showed, the model had high precision and powerful applicability. The system of stand growth model offered good stability, high accuracy.
4、Using the model of stand growth and yield, The quantitative maturity age was obtained in the stands of different planting density and site index.The quantitative maturity ages of larix gmelinii were 20-35 years. The quantitative maturity age was a negative correlation site index and stand density, it was early in high site index and density stand, and had certain duration.The quantitative maturity age of small diameter timber was prior, middle diameter timber was more than 30 years, large diameter timber was over 50 years. According to the buck standard, stand out-of wood species was got by diameter distribution and taper function, The technology maturity age of middle diameter was 33-40 years, large diameter timber was 50-55 years, Using NPV method for calculating economic mature, the economic mature age of middle diameter was 33-41 years, large diameter timber was 49-55 years, the sensitivity analysis found that the biggest influence on net present value is lumber sales price, the second is the interest rate changes, the lowest cost, as the site class reduced, sensitive to changes in factors influence the effect of annual net present value was increased, In 16 site index under the conditions of the exponential sensitive factor, the biggest influence on change, so the biggest risk of face. The rotation period was determined by comprehensive analysis method, According to the three mature age, showed the following conclusions:the middle diameter timber was suited on 16 site index, rotation was 39-41 years,18 site index developed the middle diameter timber, rotation was 36-38 years, large diameter timber rotation was 53-55 years,20 site index cultivated large diameter timber, rotational was 49-52 years.
5、Density effect model of larch plantation was established, the elasticity of production and marginal effects were analysed, the relationship of volume and density can be very well explained. Based on the model, the optimal density control model of larch plantation were derived with dynamic programming method, as age and site index increased, number of stems were decreases. The optimal stand density were received in different site conditions
6、the initial stage, the interval and intensity are analyzed in the study, trees growth began to decline was regard as then the initial period of thinning, the interval was not only effected site conditions and planting density, was but also relation with last thinning intensity, this paper studies found that starting period of thinning in larch was over 18-24 years, the interval was 4-6 years, intensity was 20%-30%.The thinning types of cultivation target timber were determined by dynamic programming method (the initial stage, the interval and intensity), the research found that the thinning shorten the rotation, and improved yield of final cutting.
7、based on comprehensive comparison of different management pattern, the site conditions, the optimal operation model were developed in different site. the middle diameter timber was suited on 16 site index, the stands of 3300N/hm2 and 4400N/hm2 were thinning 3 times, and had maximum economic benefits, the internal rate of return was more than 15%; large diameter timber was suited on 18 site index, the density of the plants (4400N/hm2) were thinning five times and 3300 N/hm2 were 4 times can obtain the biggest economic benefit.20 site index cultivated large diameter timber, after thinning 4-5 times, the stand will gain the maximum economic benefits.
The results have an important significance that resolved lumber shortage and accelerate to cultivate wood timber industry, and were theoretical basis for improving larch plantation management
1、以黑龙江省5期固定样地复测数据为基本数据,全面系统地研究了黑龙江省落叶松人工林平均树高、平均直径、林分株数密度、林分断面积、林分蓄积等林分调查因子的生长预估模型。
2、本研究利用已知的立地信息,用区域号作为哑变量,代表样地立地信息,在传统模型中引入此哑变量进行回归,拟合各区域的林分调查因子预估模型。解决了各区域分量与总体总量相容一致性的问题。而且在建立林分断面积和林分蓄积量预测模型时采用了建立非线性度量误差变量联立方程组模型,解决了传统回归模型参数估计无法解决的度量误差参数估计问题。提高了模型的精度。
3、使用独立检验样本数据对本研究所确定的黑龙江省市县林区落叶松人工林收获模型进行检验,结果表明各模型精度高,适用性强,这说明本次构建的全林分生长模型系统具有较高的精度和稳定性。
4、应用建立的林分生长与收获模型,得出不同初植密度和地位级指数下的林分数量成熟龄,落叶松人工林林分的数量成熟龄为20-35年。林分数量成熟龄与地位指数和林分密度成负相关,地位指数高,密度大的林分数量成熟到来的早,且有一定的持续期,随着地位指数的变化,数量成熟龄也随之变化。其中小径材的成熟龄来的较早,而中径材的成熟龄主要集中在30年以上,而大径材只有在50年以上才能成熟。依据相关的造材要求,应用直径分布和削度方程,得到林分各年龄材种的出材率,为确定落叶松工艺成熟龄奠定基础。确定工艺成熟龄为中径材33-40年,大径材为50-55年。采用净现值法计算林分经济成熟,中径材的经济成熟龄为33-41年,大径材经济成熟龄为49-55年,通过敏感性分析发现,对净现值影响最大的因素是木材销售价格,其次是利率的变化,影响最小的是营林成本,而且敏感因素变化对年均净现值的影响随立地等级的降低而增加；即在16地位指数级的条件下,受敏感因素变化的影响最大,因此其面对的风险也最大。综合分析来确定轮伐期。按照上述三种成熟龄,得到以下结论：16地位指数级适合培育中径材,轮伐期为39-41年,18地位指数级培育中径材轮伐期为36-38年,培育大径材的轮伐期为53-55年,20地位指数级培育大径材的轮伐期为49-52年。
5、建立了黑龙江省落叶松人工林林分密度效应模型,对生产弹性和边际效应进行了分析,该模型可以很好的反应立木密度和蓄积量的关系。基于密度效应模型,用动态规划的方法导出落叶松人工林最优密度控制模型,较好的反应了随着林龄和地位指数增大,保留株数减小的客观规律。得出了不同立地条件下林分经营的最优密度。
6、本研究对间伐起始期、间隔期和间伐强度进行了分析,间伐起始期定为树木连年生长量开始下降期,不同立地、不同初植密度林分的抚育间伐开始期不同,抚育间伐的间隔期除受立地条件、初植密度等因素的制约外,还与上次抚育间伐强度有着密切的关系,文中研究发现落叶松间伐起始期一般在18-24年左右,间隔期一般为4-6年,间伐强度以20%-30%为宜。根据上述分析通过动态规划的方法,确定了各林分培育目标材种的具体间伐方式(间伐起始期、下次间伐时间,间伐强度),通过间伐研究发现各立地级上的林分间伐后轮伐期有明显缩短,可以尽快的获得要培育的目标材种,这对提高森林的主伐收益是很有益的。
7、综合上述研究,通过对不同组合模式的比较后,得到了各立地条件下最优的经营模式,16地位级适合培育中径材,3300株/hm2和4400株/hm2的林分都间伐3次就达到成熟,可以进行主伐,而且该模式的经济效益为最大,内部收益率均大于15%；18地位级以培育大径材为主,密度4400株/hm2的林分需要间伐5次而密度3300株/hm2的间伐4次就可以获得最大经济效益；20地位级主要培育大径材,各密度林分经过间伐4-5次后,将获得最大的经济效益。
本研究对于改变我国木材紧缺,加速培育出工业用材林具有重要的意义,为提高落叶松人工林经营水平奠定理论基础。
Based on the data of provincial forest resource inventory and 95 sample trees in 22 sample plots for Larch plantation in Mengjiagang forest farm, stand growth and yield model, the diameter distribution model, taper equation, were established; stand merchant volume ratio and rotation were analysed; the effect of stand density was studied, the best stand density model was obtained to using dynamic programming; thinning techniques were studied to determine the initial, also as the interval period of thinning and the thinning quantity. This paper applies theory of dynamic programming on different cultivate objectives of forest to determine specific thinning ways. Based on the studies, the optimal management model was obtained large and middle diameter timber. The main contents include:
1、Based on the data of fixed sample plot and key ecological forest monitoring plots in heilongjiang province,the growth model of average tree height, average diameter, stand density, stand basal area, stand volume and so on were systematically built.
2、The site information were expressed by dummy variables in the study, the prodictor model of stand factors were fitted by traditional model including dummy variables, to resolve the compatibility problem of components and entire, the model of stand basal area and volume were established with nonlinear measure error simultaneous equations, to solve the traditional regression model parameter estimation question. It improved the precision of the models.
3、The growth and yield model of larch plantation in Heilongjiang were tested by using independent inspection data, the results showed, the model had high precision and powerful applicability. The system of stand growth model offered good stability, high accuracy.
4、Using the model of stand growth and yield, The quantitative maturity age was obtained in the stands of different planting density and site index.The quantitative maturity ages of larix gmelinii were 20-35 years. The quantitative maturity age was a negative correlation site index and stand density, it was early in high site index and density stand, and had certain duration.The quantitative maturity age of small diameter timber was prior, middle diameter timber was more than 30 years, large diameter timber was over 50 years. According to the buck standard, stand out-of wood species was got by diameter distribution and taper function, The technology maturity age of middle diameter was 33-40 years, large diameter timber was 50-55 years, Using NPV method for calculating economic mature, the economic mature age of middle diameter was 33-41 years, large diameter timber was 49-55 years, the sensitivity analysis found that the biggest influence on net present value is lumber sales price, the second is the interest rate changes, the lowest cost, as the site class reduced, sensitive to changes in factors influence the effect of annual net present value was increased, In 16 site index under the conditions of the exponential sensitive factor, the biggest influence on change, so the biggest risk of face. The rotation period was determined by comprehensive analysis method, According to the three mature age, showed the following conclusions:the middle diameter timber was suited on 16 site index, rotation was 39-41 years,18 site index developed the middle diameter timber, rotation was 36-38 years, large diameter timber rotation was 53-55 years,20 site index cultivated large diameter timber, rotational was 49-52 years.
5、Density effect model of larch plantation was established, the elasticity of production and marginal effects were analysed, the relationship of volume and density can be very well explained. Based on the model, the optimal density control model of larch plantation were derived with dynamic programming method, as age and site index increased, number of stems were decreases. The optimal stand density were received in different site conditions
6、the initial stage, the interval and intensity are analyzed in the study, trees growth began to decline was regard as then the initial period of thinning, the interval was not only effected site conditions and planting density, was but also relation with last thinning intensity, this paper studies found that starting period of thinning in larch was over 18-24 years, the interval was 4-6 years, intensity was 20%-30%.The thinning types of cultivation target timber were determined by dynamic programming method (the initial stage, the interval and intensity), the research found that the thinning shorten the rotation, and improved yield of final cutting.
7、based on comprehensive comparison of different management pattern, the site conditions, the optimal operation model were developed in different site. the middle diameter timber was suited on 16 site index, the stands of 3300N/hm2 and 4400N/hm2 were thinning 3 times, and had maximum economic benefits, the internal rate of return was more than 15%; large diameter timber was suited on 18 site index, the density of the plants (4400N/hm2) were thinning five times and 3300 N/hm2 were 4 times can obtain the biggest economic benefit.20 site index cultivated large diameter timber, after thinning 4-5 times, the stand will gain the maximum economic benefits.
The results have an important significance that resolved lumber shortage and accelerate to cultivate wood timber industry, and were theoretical basis for improving larch plantation management
引文
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