人文关系网络对国际贸易网络的影响机制及效应研究
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摘要
在全球化背景下,文化与经济被认为是当今世界体系中最具影响力的两股力量。而世界各国和地区之间通过贸易活动已发展形成了复杂的经济网络,同时,国际经济活动又往往嵌入在由语言、宗教、历史殖民等社会文化关系及区域贸易协定、共同货币等制度协议关系所组成的复杂网络之上。因此,有必要通过新兴发展起来的网络分析方法来重新解读国际经济系统,从经济和社会关系角度对国际经济网络的结构和动力学进行全新的、基础性的解释。
有鉴于此,本论文在全面回顾和评述了国内外相关文献的基础上,将复杂网络分析技术和社会网络分析理念结合起来,遵循“数据质量检测—数据有效性处理—数据可视化—数据挖掘—数据分析”的大数据分析路径,综合了杨小凯新兴古典经济学框架下的国际分工理论、社会学中的关系嵌入理论及信息级联理论、网络科学中的图论和网络博弈等理论,并借助于指数随机图模型的估计、诊断和仿真方法,就国际人文关系网络对国际贸易网络的影响机制和影响效应进行了深入研究。主要回答了以下问题：如何有效地对国际贸易网络和国际人文关系网络进行数理构建和描述?国际贸易网络和国际人文关系网络的基本结构及发展状况如何?国际人文关系网络如何影响国际贸易网络的形成和发展过程,进而使国际贸易网络表现出怎样的特殊结构?嵌入在国际人文关系网络之上的国际贸易关系是否更可能发展成高等级流量、比重、偏好或排名的贸易关系?—国(地区)在国际人文关系网络中拥有较高的地位是否也会对其在国际贸易网络中的地位和影响力形成推动作用?
论文对现有国际双边贸易和人文关系数据的完整性和有效性进行了处理分析,从数理层面对1962-2010年的国际贸易网络和国际人文关系网络进行了构建和描述,并将国际贸易网络进行了维度扩展和等级划分。发现仅基于国际贸易流量网络并不能全面描述国家及地区间的贸易关系,有必要将其扩展为国际贸易比重网络和偏好网络,并从数值、比重和排名三种方式对其进行等级划分,进而在一个新的框架下来分析国际贸易网络的结构及其动力。对国际贸易网络和国际人文关系网络的结构特征及其发展演化进行分析发现,国际贸易完全网络已变得十分稠密,国家和地区在网络中的连接表现出趋同态势,但其出强度、入强度以及网络所有贸易关系强度的异质性却在不断增大。不同维度国际贸易网络在不同等级上随时间的发展演变特征存在较大差异,尤其是最高等级的比重网络、偏好网络和排名网络都表现为较为特殊的结构和组织特性。而国际人文关系网络以共同宗教和共同语言关系网络最为密集,其节点连接数差异性较小,其他人文关系网络相对稀松,但节点网络地位存在较大差异。并且,国际人文关系网络普遍都表现为几个或多个离散社群,其中的RTA关系网络正不断整合成一个大的连通片
论文改良和发展了杨小凯新兴古典框架下的国际贸易网络模型,构建了一个结合国际分工和人文关系网络来解释国际贸易网络形成和发展的新理论体系,并分别基于交易成本效益和信息级联效益就国际人文关系网络将导致国际贸易网络表现出怎样的结构特征进行了论证。研究认为国家间的可行分工模式确定国际贸易网络的可行结构,而国际人文关系网络对贸易关系的影响和限制将最终确定国际贸易网络在可行集中的最佳状态选择。国际人文关系网络通过交易成本影响各国的贸易伙伴选择,能导致较高等级的国际贸易网络表现为2个或多个连通片。拥有更强更广人文关系的国家(地区)在专业化生产能力足够强的情况下,更容易在国际贸易网络中拥有并控制较多的贸易关系。国家(地区)间在其分工模式互补的情况下如果存在较强的人文关系,也更容易形成互惠型的双向贸易。而国际贸易网络中如果各国在选择贸易伙伴时存在信息级联效应,那么国际贸易出口和进口贸易的顶层关系网络都将表现为不存在闭封三角关系的树状结构特征。并且,存在较强人文关系的国家更可能共同处于某个中心国家的周围。
最后,论文采用指数随机图模型(ERGM),将网络内生的互惠性等自组织行为、行为者属性效应以及人文关系网络对国际贸易网络结构形成产生的影响放入统一的框架下进行检验,以考察国际人文关系网络对不同维度、不同等级以及不同年份国际贸易网络的影响效应。研究结果表明,国际贸易关系的形成除了较大程度上嵌入在各种人文关系网络和地理相邻网络上之外,国家和地区在各种人文关系网络和地理相邻网络中的地位以及其经济实力、人口规模等都将同时对国家和地区在贸易网络中的地位构成影响,从而使得国际贸易完全网络表现为明显的“核心-边缘-半边缘”结构。而较高等级的国际贸易流量网络主要由经济实力越强、人口规模越大的国家和地区之间相互吸引集聚而成,且较高等级流量网络中的贸易关系具有较强的连带发展惯性,这种惯性如果嵌入在国际人文关系网络中其作用将变得更为明显。
而就国际人文关系网络对不同维度、较高等级国际贸易网络的影响效应进行检验表明,历年较高等级的出口和进口比重网络、偏好网络和排名网络都存在多个出星或入星结构,略有不同的是,较高等级的偏好网络更倾向于各成体系而较少表现为层级关联,而出口和进口顶层关系网络则确实都没有表现出闭封三角关系的树状结构。较高等级比重、偏好和排名网络中国家和地区的行为都具有显著的信息级联效应,而出口和进口偏好网络中还存在较为明显的“情有独钟”效应。在控制了经济实力、人口规模以及国土面积影响的情况下,一国(地区)在国际人文关系网络中拥有较高的地位确实会对其在国际贸易网络中的地位和影响力形成较强的推动作用。嵌入在国际人文关系网络之上的国际贸易关系确实更可能发展成具有较高等级的比重、偏好和排名的贸易关系,并且,这些较高等级的贸易关系网络越来越依赖于建立在各种国际人文关系网络之上,使得这些网络的整体格局进一步分化成更多具有文化性和区域性的分支。
Culture and economy are considered to be two most influential powers in this globalized world. Countries and regions around the world have forged a complex economic network by means of trade. Meanwhile, international economic activities are intertwined with complex networks formed by such cultural relationships as language, religion, and colonization, as well as institutions such as regional trade agreements and common currency arrangements. Therefore, it is necessary for us to reexamine the international economic system by means of newly developed network analysis method, and shed new light on the structure and dynamics of the international economic network from the viewpoint of economic and social relationship.
In light of this, this paper studied intensively the mechanism and effect of the influence of international humanistic relation network on international trade network, based on a thorough literature review. Integrating complex network analysis and social network analysis method, this paper follows the big data analytical approach of "data quality assessment-data effectiveness processing-data visualization-data mining-data analysis", incorporating such theories as the international division of labor theory developed in the framework of Yang Xiaokai's new classical economics, relationship embedding theory and information cascading theory in sociology, as well as graph theory and network game theory in network science. It also took advantage of the estimation, diagnosis and simulation methods for the exponential random graph model. By doing these, the paper tried to answer the following questions, as listed below. How to effectively construct and illustrate the international trade network and international humanistic relation network quantitatively? What are the fundamental structures and development status of the international trade network and humanistic relation network? How does the international humanistic relation network influence the establishment and development of the international trade network, and how the structure of the international trade network should emerge as a result of such influence? Is it possible for the international trade relation embedded onto the international humanistic relation network to upgrade into a trade relationship with high grade flow, ranking, preference or ranking? Will a high status of a country (or region) in the international humanistic relation network improve its status and influence in the international trade network?
This paper analyzed the integrity and effectiveness of current data in international bilateral trade and humanistic relation, established and illustrated quantitatively the international trade network and international humanistic relation network between1962and2010, expanded the dimension and graded the international trade network. Research found out that network solely based on international trade flow is insufficient for illustrating the trade relations between countries and regions. Therefore it is necessary to expand it into the international trade ratio network and preference network, and grade them in accordance to numerical value, weight and ranking respectively, thereby analyze the structure and dynamics of the international trade network in a new framework. Study on the structural characteristics and dynamics of the international trade network and international humanistic relation network found out, that the complete network of international trade is becoming very dense. On one hand, linking of countries and regions in the network is becoming more and more homogeneous. On the other hand, heterogeneity is constantly increasing with regards to the intensity of out-degree, in-degree and all trade relations in the network. Significant disparities exist in the evolutionary characteristics in international trade networks with different rankings and residing in different magnitude. In particular, ratio networks, preference networks and ranking networks of highest ranking exhibit special structural and organizational characteristics. The international humanistic relation network, on the other hand, is densest with regards to common religion network and linguistic relation network, with low disparities in node degrees. Other humanistic relation networks relatively sparse, but large disparities exist in node profiles in the network. Furthermore, international humanistic relation networks are commonly emerged as several discrete social groups, but RTA relation network is being integrated into a large component.
The paper improved and developed the international trade network model under Yang Xiaokai's new classical framework and devised a new theoretical framework to provide new explanations to the establishment and development of international trade network making use of the theory of international labor division and humanistic trade network. It further demonstrated the structural characteristics of the international trade network brought about by the international humanistic relation network based on transaction cost effect and information cascading effect. The study showed that feasible model of labor division between countries shall determine the feasible structure of the international trade network, while the influence and limitation of the international humanistic relation network on trade relations shall ultimately determine the optimal mode selection in the feasible set of the international trade network. The international humanistic relation network influence the selection of trading partners by means of transaction cost. As a result, international trade networks with higher ranking express themselves as two or more components. Countries (or regions) with stronger and broader humanistic relations can more easily possess and control more trade relations in the international trade network, given sufficient strong specialized production capacity. Mutually beneficial bilateral trade relationship is more easily developed when strong humanistic relations exist among countries with complementary mode of labor division. If information cascading effects exist when countries are selecting trading partners in the international trade network, top tiered relation networks of international export and import trade shall have tree like structural features without loops. Furthermore, countries with stronger humanistic relations are more likely to be around some country in the center.
Finally, making use of Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM), this paper empirically test the influence of self organizational behaviors like endogenous network mutual benefit, actor attribute effects and humanistic relation network on the establishment of the structure of international trade network, putting them in a unified framework, in order to study the influence of international humanistic trade network on international trade networks with different magnitudes, different rankings and different years. The results showed that, in addition to being embedded in various humanistic relation networks and geographically adjacent networks, status of countries and regions in humanistic relation networks and geographically adjacent networks as well as factors like economic strength, population size, etc, can exert influence on the status of countries and regions in the trade network. In this way the complete network of international trade is featured by obvious "core-periphery-semi periphery" structure. International trade flow network with higher rankings are mainly created by the conglomeration of countries and regions with large economies and population size, trade relation of which is featured by pretty strong inertia of joint development. The effect of this inertia is even more apparent if embedded in international humanistic trade network.
This paper also did the empirical test regarding the effect of international humanistic relation network on international trade networks of various magnitudes and higher ranking. The result showed that export and import ratio networks, preference networks and ranking networks of higher rankings in successive years display multiple out star and in star structures. Preference networks of high rankings are more inclined to be independent and less inclined to display hierarchical relationships, in contrast to top tiered export and import relation networks, which display tree like structures without loops. In high ranking, preference and ranking networks countries and regions demonstrate significant information cascading effect, and in export and import preference networks, obvious "special preference" effect can be discovered. Controlling fore variables including economic strength, population size and territorial area, relatively high status of a country or region in the international humanistic relation network can indeed be conducive to the status and influence of that country or region in the international trade network. International trade relations embedded onto the international humanistic relation network can indeed be developed into trade relations with higher ratio, preference and ranking. In addition, these trade relation networks with higher rankings are more and more dependent on establishing themselves onto various international humanistic relation networks, splitting them into more cultural and regional branches.
有鉴于此,本论文在全面回顾和评述了国内外相关文献的基础上,将复杂网络分析技术和社会网络分析理念结合起来,遵循“数据质量检测—数据有效性处理—数据可视化—数据挖掘—数据分析”的大数据分析路径,综合了杨小凯新兴古典经济学框架下的国际分工理论、社会学中的关系嵌入理论及信息级联理论、网络科学中的图论和网络博弈等理论,并借助于指数随机图模型的估计、诊断和仿真方法,就国际人文关系网络对国际贸易网络的影响机制和影响效应进行了深入研究。主要回答了以下问题：如何有效地对国际贸易网络和国际人文关系网络进行数理构建和描述?国际贸易网络和国际人文关系网络的基本结构及发展状况如何?国际人文关系网络如何影响国际贸易网络的形成和发展过程,进而使国际贸易网络表现出怎样的特殊结构?嵌入在国际人文关系网络之上的国际贸易关系是否更可能发展成高等级流量、比重、偏好或排名的贸易关系?—国(地区)在国际人文关系网络中拥有较高的地位是否也会对其在国际贸易网络中的地位和影响力形成推动作用?
论文对现有国际双边贸易和人文关系数据的完整性和有效性进行了处理分析,从数理层面对1962-2010年的国际贸易网络和国际人文关系网络进行了构建和描述,并将国际贸易网络进行了维度扩展和等级划分。发现仅基于国际贸易流量网络并不能全面描述国家及地区间的贸易关系,有必要将其扩展为国际贸易比重网络和偏好网络,并从数值、比重和排名三种方式对其进行等级划分,进而在一个新的框架下来分析国际贸易网络的结构及其动力。对国际贸易网络和国际人文关系网络的结构特征及其发展演化进行分析发现,国际贸易完全网络已变得十分稠密,国家和地区在网络中的连接表现出趋同态势,但其出强度、入强度以及网络所有贸易关系强度的异质性却在不断增大。不同维度国际贸易网络在不同等级上随时间的发展演变特征存在较大差异,尤其是最高等级的比重网络、偏好网络和排名网络都表现为较为特殊的结构和组织特性。而国际人文关系网络以共同宗教和共同语言关系网络最为密集,其节点连接数差异性较小,其他人文关系网络相对稀松,但节点网络地位存在较大差异。并且,国际人文关系网络普遍都表现为几个或多个离散社群,其中的RTA关系网络正不断整合成一个大的连通片
论文改良和发展了杨小凯新兴古典框架下的国际贸易网络模型,构建了一个结合国际分工和人文关系网络来解释国际贸易网络形成和发展的新理论体系,并分别基于交易成本效益和信息级联效益就国际人文关系网络将导致国际贸易网络表现出怎样的结构特征进行了论证。研究认为国家间的可行分工模式确定国际贸易网络的可行结构,而国际人文关系网络对贸易关系的影响和限制将最终确定国际贸易网络在可行集中的最佳状态选择。国际人文关系网络通过交易成本影响各国的贸易伙伴选择,能导致较高等级的国际贸易网络表现为2个或多个连通片。拥有更强更广人文关系的国家(地区)在专业化生产能力足够强的情况下,更容易在国际贸易网络中拥有并控制较多的贸易关系。国家(地区)间在其分工模式互补的情况下如果存在较强的人文关系,也更容易形成互惠型的双向贸易。而国际贸易网络中如果各国在选择贸易伙伴时存在信息级联效应,那么国际贸易出口和进口贸易的顶层关系网络都将表现为不存在闭封三角关系的树状结构特征。并且,存在较强人文关系的国家更可能共同处于某个中心国家的周围。
最后,论文采用指数随机图模型(ERGM),将网络内生的互惠性等自组织行为、行为者属性效应以及人文关系网络对国际贸易网络结构形成产生的影响放入统一的框架下进行检验,以考察国际人文关系网络对不同维度、不同等级以及不同年份国际贸易网络的影响效应。研究结果表明,国际贸易关系的形成除了较大程度上嵌入在各种人文关系网络和地理相邻网络上之外,国家和地区在各种人文关系网络和地理相邻网络中的地位以及其经济实力、人口规模等都将同时对国家和地区在贸易网络中的地位构成影响,从而使得国际贸易完全网络表现为明显的“核心-边缘-半边缘”结构。而较高等级的国际贸易流量网络主要由经济实力越强、人口规模越大的国家和地区之间相互吸引集聚而成,且较高等级流量网络中的贸易关系具有较强的连带发展惯性,这种惯性如果嵌入在国际人文关系网络中其作用将变得更为明显。
而就国际人文关系网络对不同维度、较高等级国际贸易网络的影响效应进行检验表明,历年较高等级的出口和进口比重网络、偏好网络和排名网络都存在多个出星或入星结构,略有不同的是,较高等级的偏好网络更倾向于各成体系而较少表现为层级关联,而出口和进口顶层关系网络则确实都没有表现出闭封三角关系的树状结构。较高等级比重、偏好和排名网络中国家和地区的行为都具有显著的信息级联效应,而出口和进口偏好网络中还存在较为明显的“情有独钟”效应。在控制了经济实力、人口规模以及国土面积影响的情况下,一国(地区)在国际人文关系网络中拥有较高的地位确实会对其在国际贸易网络中的地位和影响力形成较强的推动作用。嵌入在国际人文关系网络之上的国际贸易关系确实更可能发展成具有较高等级的比重、偏好和排名的贸易关系,并且,这些较高等级的贸易关系网络越来越依赖于建立在各种国际人文关系网络之上,使得这些网络的整体格局进一步分化成更多具有文化性和区域性的分支。
Culture and economy are considered to be two most influential powers in this globalized world. Countries and regions around the world have forged a complex economic network by means of trade. Meanwhile, international economic activities are intertwined with complex networks formed by such cultural relationships as language, religion, and colonization, as well as institutions such as regional trade agreements and common currency arrangements. Therefore, it is necessary for us to reexamine the international economic system by means of newly developed network analysis method, and shed new light on the structure and dynamics of the international economic network from the viewpoint of economic and social relationship.
In light of this, this paper studied intensively the mechanism and effect of the influence of international humanistic relation network on international trade network, based on a thorough literature review. Integrating complex network analysis and social network analysis method, this paper follows the big data analytical approach of "data quality assessment-data effectiveness processing-data visualization-data mining-data analysis", incorporating such theories as the international division of labor theory developed in the framework of Yang Xiaokai's new classical economics, relationship embedding theory and information cascading theory in sociology, as well as graph theory and network game theory in network science. It also took advantage of the estimation, diagnosis and simulation methods for the exponential random graph model. By doing these, the paper tried to answer the following questions, as listed below. How to effectively construct and illustrate the international trade network and international humanistic relation network quantitatively? What are the fundamental structures and development status of the international trade network and humanistic relation network? How does the international humanistic relation network influence the establishment and development of the international trade network, and how the structure of the international trade network should emerge as a result of such influence? Is it possible for the international trade relation embedded onto the international humanistic relation network to upgrade into a trade relationship with high grade flow, ranking, preference or ranking? Will a high status of a country (or region) in the international humanistic relation network improve its status and influence in the international trade network?
This paper analyzed the integrity and effectiveness of current data in international bilateral trade and humanistic relation, established and illustrated quantitatively the international trade network and international humanistic relation network between1962and2010, expanded the dimension and graded the international trade network. Research found out that network solely based on international trade flow is insufficient for illustrating the trade relations between countries and regions. Therefore it is necessary to expand it into the international trade ratio network and preference network, and grade them in accordance to numerical value, weight and ranking respectively, thereby analyze the structure and dynamics of the international trade network in a new framework. Study on the structural characteristics and dynamics of the international trade network and international humanistic relation network found out, that the complete network of international trade is becoming very dense. On one hand, linking of countries and regions in the network is becoming more and more homogeneous. On the other hand, heterogeneity is constantly increasing with regards to the intensity of out-degree, in-degree and all trade relations in the network. Significant disparities exist in the evolutionary characteristics in international trade networks with different rankings and residing in different magnitude. In particular, ratio networks, preference networks and ranking networks of highest ranking exhibit special structural and organizational characteristics. The international humanistic relation network, on the other hand, is densest with regards to common religion network and linguistic relation network, with low disparities in node degrees. Other humanistic relation networks relatively sparse, but large disparities exist in node profiles in the network. Furthermore, international humanistic relation networks are commonly emerged as several discrete social groups, but RTA relation network is being integrated into a large component.
The paper improved and developed the international trade network model under Yang Xiaokai's new classical framework and devised a new theoretical framework to provide new explanations to the establishment and development of international trade network making use of the theory of international labor division and humanistic trade network. It further demonstrated the structural characteristics of the international trade network brought about by the international humanistic relation network based on transaction cost effect and information cascading effect. The study showed that feasible model of labor division between countries shall determine the feasible structure of the international trade network, while the influence and limitation of the international humanistic relation network on trade relations shall ultimately determine the optimal mode selection in the feasible set of the international trade network. The international humanistic relation network influence the selection of trading partners by means of transaction cost. As a result, international trade networks with higher ranking express themselves as two or more components. Countries (or regions) with stronger and broader humanistic relations can more easily possess and control more trade relations in the international trade network, given sufficient strong specialized production capacity. Mutually beneficial bilateral trade relationship is more easily developed when strong humanistic relations exist among countries with complementary mode of labor division. If information cascading effects exist when countries are selecting trading partners in the international trade network, top tiered relation networks of international export and import trade shall have tree like structural features without loops. Furthermore, countries with stronger humanistic relations are more likely to be around some country in the center.
Finally, making use of Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM), this paper empirically test the influence of self organizational behaviors like endogenous network mutual benefit, actor attribute effects and humanistic relation network on the establishment of the structure of international trade network, putting them in a unified framework, in order to study the influence of international humanistic trade network on international trade networks with different magnitudes, different rankings and different years. The results showed that, in addition to being embedded in various humanistic relation networks and geographically adjacent networks, status of countries and regions in humanistic relation networks and geographically adjacent networks as well as factors like economic strength, population size, etc, can exert influence on the status of countries and regions in the trade network. In this way the complete network of international trade is featured by obvious "core-periphery-semi periphery" structure. International trade flow network with higher rankings are mainly created by the conglomeration of countries and regions with large economies and population size, trade relation of which is featured by pretty strong inertia of joint development. The effect of this inertia is even more apparent if embedded in international humanistic trade network.
This paper also did the empirical test regarding the effect of international humanistic relation network on international trade networks of various magnitudes and higher ranking. The result showed that export and import ratio networks, preference networks and ranking networks of higher rankings in successive years display multiple out star and in star structures. Preference networks of high rankings are more inclined to be independent and less inclined to display hierarchical relationships, in contrast to top tiered export and import relation networks, which display tree like structures without loops. In high ranking, preference and ranking networks countries and regions demonstrate significant information cascading effect, and in export and import preference networks, obvious "special preference" effect can be discovered. Controlling fore variables including economic strength, population size and territorial area, relatively high status of a country or region in the international humanistic relation network can indeed be conducive to the status and influence of that country or region in the international trade network. International trade relations embedded onto the international humanistic relation network can indeed be developed into trade relations with higher ratio, preference and ranking. In addition, these trade relation networks with higher rankings are more and more dependent on establishing themselves onto various international humanistic relation networks, splitting them into more cultural and regional branches.
引文
① “网络科学-中国”网站地址为http://www.netsci-china.cn
① 参见:http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%90%84%E5%9B%BD
② 参见:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/notesanddefs.html
① 参见:http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicMaintainRTAHome.aspx
① 参见http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B5%81%E9%80%9A%E8%B2%A8%E5%B9%A3%E5%88%97% E8%A1%A8
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② 参见:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/notesanddefs.html
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