航空公司机队规划减排战略研究
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摘要
随着低碳时代的到来,航空业对全球变暖的影响日益成为国际关注的焦点。自2012年起,欧盟排放交易体系(European Union Emission Trading System,ETS)将对进出欧盟以及在欧盟内部航线飞行的2000余家航空公司进行碳排放限额,并对超出限额的航空公司收费。碳排放收费对航空公司的经营构成了重要挑战。因此,考虑如何有效降低碳排放成为航空公司的重要战略决策之一。
机队规划作为航空公司经营决策的核心,研究如何通过对各种资源,如机型,航线,航班等的有效配置,为公司创造最大效益。碳排放权的市场化意味着碳配额成为机队规划配置的核心稀缺资源之一。本文旨在将碳资源的约束纳入到机队规划模型设计中,突破传统机队规划较少考虑减排的研究现状,从而建立起考虑碳排放约束的机队规划模型。
本文首先对欧盟对航空业的排放政策进行了一系列研究,包括介绍欧盟排放交易体系的建立以及对航空业的影响分析。然后,基于航空公司机队规划基本方法结合航线上运量需求预测,本文将动态规划的方法引入到机队更新方案中,建立多阶段动态规划模型,引入算例求解,得到在考虑机队排放配额限制下的总机队规模和规划期内各年飞机的更新决策。最后,利用所建立模型在战略上的可能性,从技术和运营两个方面,提出航空公司在碳排放法规的约束下制定有效地降低碳排放的发展策略建议。文章构建的机队规划模型对航空公司在碳排放收费约束条件下的机队规划具有较高的参考价值和实际意义。
While the world is stepping into the era of low carbon, the impact of aviation industry on global warming has increasingly become the focus of international attention. Launched in 2005, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the largest multi-national emissions trading scheme in the world. From 2012, the aviation industry will be fully included into the EU ETS, which means more than 2000 airlines arriving in and departing from the EU will be regulated and will need to pay for their CO2 emission. Carbon emission charges constitute a major challenge to the operation of airlines. Therefore, the consideration of reduce carbon emission has become a key strategic decision of airlines.
As a core decision in the airline operation, the airline fleet planning specifies on profit maximization through efficient allocation of all resources that include fleet types, routes, flights etc. The marketization of carbon emission right makes the carbon credit one of the scarcest resources in airline fleet planning allocation. This paper aims at including the constraint of carbon credit into the new fleet planning model to improve the traditional ways which have less consideration of emission reduction.
At first, a set of EU’s policies towards carbon emission had been discussed, which included the establishment of EU ETS as well as its impact on aviation industry. Secondly, based on the method of airline fleet planning and the prediction of the route capacity, this paper introduced the dynamic programming method into fleet renewal scheme, and built a multi-period dynamic programming model. After solving an example by this method, a set of fleet renewal decisions for each year during the planning period, with the consideration of emission constraint, had been gained. By setting the minimization of fleet’s carbon emission as an objective, we built a multi-objective model to deal with the fleet assignment problem. Finally, based on the usefulness of the model established in strategic decision, some developing measures aiming at reducing carbon emission for airline had been suggested from the technical and operational aspects. The fleet planning model has high reference value and practical significance for airlines’fleet planning under the constraints of carbon emission charges.
机队规划作为航空公司经营决策的核心,研究如何通过对各种资源,如机型,航线,航班等的有效配置,为公司创造最大效益。碳排放权的市场化意味着碳配额成为机队规划配置的核心稀缺资源之一。本文旨在将碳资源的约束纳入到机队规划模型设计中,突破传统机队规划较少考虑减排的研究现状,从而建立起考虑碳排放约束的机队规划模型。
本文首先对欧盟对航空业的排放政策进行了一系列研究,包括介绍欧盟排放交易体系的建立以及对航空业的影响分析。然后,基于航空公司机队规划基本方法结合航线上运量需求预测,本文将动态规划的方法引入到机队更新方案中,建立多阶段动态规划模型,引入算例求解,得到在考虑机队排放配额限制下的总机队规模和规划期内各年飞机的更新决策。最后,利用所建立模型在战略上的可能性,从技术和运营两个方面,提出航空公司在碳排放法规的约束下制定有效地降低碳排放的发展策略建议。文章构建的机队规划模型对航空公司在碳排放收费约束条件下的机队规划具有较高的参考价值和实际意义。
While the world is stepping into the era of low carbon, the impact of aviation industry on global warming has increasingly become the focus of international attention. Launched in 2005, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the largest multi-national emissions trading scheme in the world. From 2012, the aviation industry will be fully included into the EU ETS, which means more than 2000 airlines arriving in and departing from the EU will be regulated and will need to pay for their CO2 emission. Carbon emission charges constitute a major challenge to the operation of airlines. Therefore, the consideration of reduce carbon emission has become a key strategic decision of airlines.
As a core decision in the airline operation, the airline fleet planning specifies on profit maximization through efficient allocation of all resources that include fleet types, routes, flights etc. The marketization of carbon emission right makes the carbon credit one of the scarcest resources in airline fleet planning allocation. This paper aims at including the constraint of carbon credit into the new fleet planning model to improve the traditional ways which have less consideration of emission reduction.
At first, a set of EU’s policies towards carbon emission had been discussed, which included the establishment of EU ETS as well as its impact on aviation industry. Secondly, based on the method of airline fleet planning and the prediction of the route capacity, this paper introduced the dynamic programming method into fleet renewal scheme, and built a multi-period dynamic programming model. After solving an example by this method, a set of fleet renewal decisions for each year during the planning period, with the consideration of emission constraint, had been gained. By setting the minimization of fleet’s carbon emission as an objective, we built a multi-objective model to deal with the fleet assignment problem. Finally, based on the usefulness of the model established in strategic decision, some developing measures aiming at reducing carbon emission for airline had been suggested from the technical and operational aspects. The fleet planning model has high reference value and practical significance for airlines’fleet planning under the constraints of carbon emission charges.
引文
[1] Brandon M.Graver, H.Christopher Frey, Estimation of Air Carrier Emissions at Raleigh-Durham International Airport,Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 7908, Raleigh, NC 27695-7908
[2] Anja Kollmuss, Jessica Lane,Carbon Offsetting & Air Travel,Part 1:CO2-Emissions Calculations , Stockholm Environment Institute– Carbon Offset Calculators for Air Travel
[3] P.Schulte,H.Schlager,H.Ziereis,U.Schumann,NOx emission indices of subsonic long-range jet aircraft at cruise altitude: In situ measurementa and predictions,,Journal of geophysical reseach,VOL102,NO D17,431-442
[4] Manfred T. Kalivoda,Monika Kudrana,Methodologies for estimating emissions from air traffic,PERCHTOLDSDORF, 1997.10,DOCUMENT N°95.106 - 066 - VERSION 1.1
[5] Nicolas Eugene Antoine,Aircraft optimization for minimal environmental impact[D],Stanford University, 2004
[6]赵坚行.民用发动机污染排放及低污染燃烧技术发展趋势[J],航空动力学报,2008,23(6),986-997
[7]张彦仲.环境保护对航空技术的挑战[J].中国工程科学, 2001,3(7)
[8]闫克斌,孙宏,史虹圣.飞机选型问题数学模型的建立[J].飞行力学,2005.12,23(4):82-85
[9]段晓江,冯允成.启发式民用飞机机队规划[J].北京航空航天报, 1996.8,22(4):504-508
[10]熊皎.需求分析法在机队规划中的应用研究[J].技术与市场, 2006.10:67-68
[11]郭兆晖,李普,廉桂萍,欧盟对民航业碳排放收费问题的透视[J].内蒙古大学学报,2010,3
[12] Anderson,Bows,Upham, Growth Scenarios for EU and UK aviation: contradictions with climate policy[J], Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Researc,2006(84)
[13] A.Dopelheuer,SAE paper No.2001-01-3008,Proceedings of the 2001 Aerospace Congress September 10-14,2001
[14]李叶.气候峰会未达成预期结果,欧洲负有不可推却责任[OL]. http://world.people.com.cn/GB/10623599.html. 2009.12.21
[15]李崎.欧盟航空排放政策的发展及其影响[R].中国民用航空总局航空安全技术中心
[16] directive 2008/101/EC of the European parliament and of the council of 19 November 2008, Official Journal of the European Union. 2009.1.13
[17]武洲宏,马湘山.?中国民航业控制航空排放政策研究[J].?环境与可持续发展,2008.5
[18]许宏.浅析机队配置因素[J].民航经济与技术, 1998.5
[19]都业富.机队规划的优化[J].系统工程理论与实践, 1997.7
[20]张海东,毕效辉.一种基于灰色理论组合预测方法的研究与应用[J].科学技术与工程,2003,3(2):156-158
[21]宁宣熙,刘思峰.管理预测与决策方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2003
[22]陈力华.我国民航客运市场的分析和预测[J].上海交通大学学报,2003,37(4):623-625
[23]邓聚龙.灰预测与灰决策[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2000
[24] Andreas Schr?der, Peter Forsyth, How Airlines Sidestep EU ETS Auctions[OL]
[25] Estelle Malavolti, Julien Jenvrinz, Strategic reaction of airlines to the ETS[OL]
[26] Dynamic programming[OL] . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_programming
[27] Manoj Lohatepanont, Airline fleet assignment and schedule design: intergrated models and algorithms[D] ,Massachusetts institute of technology,2002
[28] Kristin Rypdal, AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS[EB/OL]
[29]全球航空公司严阵以待欧盟碳税[EB/OL] http://www.legu168.com/legustock/content/2530/2011/4/80c87be96342a43db6b1dfe5e575fae0.html,2011-04-01;
[30]欧盟碳关税紧逼民航业国际航线将负重飞行[EB/OL]. http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2011-03/30/c_121249365_3.htm, 2011-03-30
[31]芬兰航空公司拟更新机队减少碳排放量[EB/OL]. http://www.cma.gov.cn/qhbh/newsbobao/200910/t20091030_49025.html,2009-10-30;
[32]崔征.英国航空公司:绿色航空的领飞者[J].经济导刊, 2008.9
[33]中国民用航空局.民航局、国家发展改革委关于印发《民航行业节能减排规划》的通知,2008-12-15
[34]国际民用航空组织.目前和未来航空器噪声和排放的趋势[EB/OL]. A37-WP/26
[35] Federal Aviation Administration Office of Environment and Energy. Aviation and Emissions APrimer[R]. 2005.1
[36]董珺,陈淑芬.非暴力不合作——中欧航空碳税斗法哥本哈根[J].南方都市报,2009-12-9
[37]主动减排航空业的碳补偿计划[OL].http://www.ditan0.com/show.asp?id=335,2010-08-31?
[38] IATA . IATA Technology Roadmap with Technical Annex[G], 2009.6
[39]世界会议核准使用航空代用燃料处理气候变化问题并通过全球框架[EB/OL], http://www.icao.int/CAAF2009/Docs.html,2009-11-20
[40]曲连贺,朱岳麟,熊肠健.航空燃料发展综述[J],长沙航空职业技术学院学报,2009(9):37-41
[41]马军,我国航运输业践行低碳运输的对策分析[J],对外经贸实务. 2010.10
[2] Anja Kollmuss, Jessica Lane,Carbon Offsetting & Air Travel,Part 1:CO2-Emissions Calculations , Stockholm Environment Institute– Carbon Offset Calculators for Air Travel
[3] P.Schulte,H.Schlager,H.Ziereis,U.Schumann,NOx emission indices of subsonic long-range jet aircraft at cruise altitude: In situ measurementa and predictions,,Journal of geophysical reseach,VOL102,NO D17,431-442
[4] Manfred T. Kalivoda,Monika Kudrana,Methodologies for estimating emissions from air traffic,PERCHTOLDSDORF, 1997.10,DOCUMENT N°95.106 - 066 - VERSION 1.1
[5] Nicolas Eugene Antoine,Aircraft optimization for minimal environmental impact[D],Stanford University, 2004
[6]赵坚行.民用发动机污染排放及低污染燃烧技术发展趋势[J],航空动力学报,2008,23(6),986-997
[7]张彦仲.环境保护对航空技术的挑战[J].中国工程科学, 2001,3(7)
[8]闫克斌,孙宏,史虹圣.飞机选型问题数学模型的建立[J].飞行力学,2005.12,23(4):82-85
[9]段晓江,冯允成.启发式民用飞机机队规划[J].北京航空航天报, 1996.8,22(4):504-508
[10]熊皎.需求分析法在机队规划中的应用研究[J].技术与市场, 2006.10:67-68
[11]郭兆晖,李普,廉桂萍,欧盟对民航业碳排放收费问题的透视[J].内蒙古大学学报,2010,3
[12] Anderson,Bows,Upham, Growth Scenarios for EU and UK aviation: contradictions with climate policy[J], Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Researc,2006(84)
[13] A.Dopelheuer,SAE paper No.2001-01-3008,Proceedings of the 2001 Aerospace Congress September 10-14,2001
[14]李叶.气候峰会未达成预期结果,欧洲负有不可推却责任[OL]. http://world.people.com.cn/GB/10623599.html. 2009.12.21
[15]李崎.欧盟航空排放政策的发展及其影响[R].中国民用航空总局航空安全技术中心
[16] directive 2008/101/EC of the European parliament and of the council of 19 November 2008, Official Journal of the European Union. 2009.1.13
[17]武洲宏,马湘山.?中国民航业控制航空排放政策研究[J].?环境与可持续发展,2008.5
[18]许宏.浅析机队配置因素[J].民航经济与技术, 1998.5
[19]都业富.机队规划的优化[J].系统工程理论与实践, 1997.7
[20]张海东,毕效辉.一种基于灰色理论组合预测方法的研究与应用[J].科学技术与工程,2003,3(2):156-158
[21]宁宣熙,刘思峰.管理预测与决策方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2003
[22]陈力华.我国民航客运市场的分析和预测[J].上海交通大学学报,2003,37(4):623-625
[23]邓聚龙.灰预测与灰决策[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2000
[24] Andreas Schr?der, Peter Forsyth, How Airlines Sidestep EU ETS Auctions[OL]
[25] Estelle Malavolti, Julien Jenvrinz, Strategic reaction of airlines to the ETS[OL]
[26] Dynamic programming[OL] . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_programming
[27] Manoj Lohatepanont, Airline fleet assignment and schedule design: intergrated models and algorithms[D] ,Massachusetts institute of technology,2002
[28] Kristin Rypdal, AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS[EB/OL]
[29]全球航空公司严阵以待欧盟碳税[EB/OL] http://www.legu168.com/legustock/content/2530/2011/4/80c87be96342a43db6b1dfe5e575fae0.html,2011-04-01;
[30]欧盟碳关税紧逼民航业国际航线将负重飞行[EB/OL]. http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2011-03/30/c_121249365_3.htm, 2011-03-30
[31]芬兰航空公司拟更新机队减少碳排放量[EB/OL]. http://www.cma.gov.cn/qhbh/newsbobao/200910/t20091030_49025.html,2009-10-30;
[32]崔征.英国航空公司:绿色航空的领飞者[J].经济导刊, 2008.9
[33]中国民用航空局.民航局、国家发展改革委关于印发《民航行业节能减排规划》的通知,2008-12-15
[34]国际民用航空组织.目前和未来航空器噪声和排放的趋势[EB/OL]. A37-WP/26
[35] Federal Aviation Administration Office of Environment and Energy. Aviation and Emissions APrimer[R]. 2005.1
[36]董珺,陈淑芬.非暴力不合作——中欧航空碳税斗法哥本哈根[J].南方都市报,2009-12-9
[37]主动减排航空业的碳补偿计划[OL].http://www.ditan0.com/show.asp?id=335,2010-08-31?
[38] IATA . IATA Technology Roadmap with Technical Annex[G], 2009.6
[39]世界会议核准使用航空代用燃料处理气候变化问题并通过全球框架[EB/OL], http://www.icao.int/CAAF2009/Docs.html,2009-11-20
[40]曲连贺,朱岳麟,熊肠健.航空燃料发展综述[J],长沙航空职业技术学院学报,2009(9):37-41
[41]马军,我国航运输业践行低碳运输的对策分析[J],对外经贸实务. 2010.10