中国典型区域入境旅游流空间扩散驱动机制研究
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摘要
随着旅游目的地之间竞争加剧,旅游驱动机制研究引起学者们的注意。然而,目前有关旅游驱动机制的研究主要集中在供给视角,基于需求视角的研究尚不多见,把两者结合起来融会贯通的研究更为少见。在旅游系统中,旅游流是联系供给与需求这两个子系统的桥梁和纽带,本文以入境旅游流扩散为切入点,结合旅游心理学、区域经济学、社会学和系统论等相关理论和研究方法,沿着旅游活动发生的逻辑顺序,从内驱力、外引力和支持条件等三个方面来剖析旅游流扩散的动因和机制问题,并通过典型区域案例对此模型加以验证,提邮区域旅游协调发展的建议。本研究对于丰富旅游驱动机制研究体系,推进旅游驱动机制量化研究,指导旅游产业区域协调发展,均具有重要的理论和现实意义。
针对我国入境旅游区域发展的差异及其演化现象,论文首先对旅游流扩散所涉及的概念和理论进行了梳理和分析,围绕旅游流的形成及其扩散这个主题,从概念体系、理论源头、产生背景和发展轨迹视角,将相关的概念和理论加以分层剖析,提出适合本文主题的理论基础,从微观需求视角构建了入境旅游流扩散动力机制模型。研究认为,旅游流是不同于一般地理流质的具有主观能动性的流体,旅游流扩散的动力源来自内驱力、外引力和支持条件。
在上述理论框架的指导下,本文通过多种研究方法阐释和验证了中国入境旅游流扩散的动力机制：(1)通过对官方统计数据和项目组调研资料的分析,系统地论证了动机的层次结构及其之间的关系,识别出了内隐性动机的常见类型,量化考核了影响动机的因素以及动机对消费行为的影响效果,验证了动机对旅游流扩散行为的内在驱动作用。
(2)突破现有目的地评价的方法体系,另辟蹊径从市场需求角度分析我国典型区域目的地吸引力,通过对比目的地属性与接待量之关联性,验证了“目的地吸引力是旅游者对目的地属性效用感知的函数”的理论假设；通过对旅游者认知及国际互联网、中介商、旅游指南推介的线路产品曝光频率的统计分析,发现目的地知名度和美誉度呈现明显正相关,验证了“目的地形象是旅游流扩散的根本外动力”这一理论假设。
(3)从客源地角度,系统分析主要客源国旅华规模与其收入、闲暇与可达性之间的联系,比较典型区域的接待规模与其可达性之间的关系,量化考核了主要客源国的旅华潜力。结果发现,影响主要客源旅华潜力的因素具有离散性,是收入、闲暇和可达性等多种因素共同影响的结果,更是经济发展、社会发展和对华联系等因素共同作用的结果。验证了“在追求效率的背景下,旅游消费表现出了‘物质消费攀高’和‘短、频、快’的新趋势”。
(4)根据离散选择理论,旅游目的地选择是系统分量(目的地属性)和随机分量(旅游者特征)共同作用的结果。实证研究表明,在系统分量中,旅游交通、服务和设施等促成因素构成了目的地选择的核心影响因素,价格、时间和距离等限制性因素的作用位居次席,而旅游景区、东道主好客性等核心吸引物的作用最小。在随机分量中,“旅华停留时间、旅游动机、旅游花费、职业、旅游伴侣、旅游方式、入境口岸、家庭结构、受到尊重”等旅游者特征影响中转型旅游流西扩的概率。把两种分量结合起来的对应分析表明,“O-D之间的区位条件、旅游者动机、旅游方式、航线布局”等因素显著影响入境口岸选择；用“三力”模型考核旅游流对桂林、西安、昆明等选择概率,发现在目的地选择中旅游者受到的推力、拉力和阻力本身就具有方向性,而且三力之间的关联性较强。
文章最后以西部为例提出了实现区域旅游协调发展的建议,研究认为,随着新兴目的地的不断涌现,国际航空口岸和航线的增加,以及“短、频、快”的需求趋势,我国入境旅游流扩散模式由初期的水平扩散为主,逐渐转向垂直扩散。在这样的背景下,西部地区要实现跨越式发展,除了强化目的地综合吸引力,通过有效的营销手段突出目的地特色形象之外,还需改善目的地的可达性,开辟洲际直通航线,强化自身的口岸功能。
本文从需求视角系统分析入境旅游流扩散机制,突破了长期以来基于供给视角的旅游驱动机制研究范式,是一种有益的探索,并试图在以下几个方面有所创新：
(1)实现多学科理论集成,构建了入境旅游流扩散驱动机制分析框架,认为在“内驱力、外引力和中介力”综合影响下的目的地选择过程,是旅游流扩散研究的最佳切入点,而且“三力”模式是对已有“推-拉”模式的拓展和完善；
(2)构建了一个包含“旅游需要→旅游动机→旅游偏好”的内驱力结构模型,厘清了旅游活动内驱力的结构层次,认为旅游者偏好的多样性是旅游流扩散的直接主观原因。通过实证研究发现,从旅游者视角剖析目的地引力构成要素是一种非常有效的目的地吸引力评价手段；
(3)视“北京、上海、广州”等三大口岸为西部的“二手客源地”,以在此采集的西扩“意愿数据”为基础,构建了中转型旅游流西扩的logistic离散选择模型,系统分析了“东客西移”的约束因素,可谓是一种低成本高效率的研究方法。
此外,本文在观点上也有一些创新。
With the status of the tourism industry increasing, tourist destinations have to face with much inevitable competition.Particularly, some traditional destinations are subject to an unprecedented challenge. Thus, research about tourism-driven mechanism values the attention of scholars. However, current research about tourism-driven mechanisms mainly concentrates on the supply perspective. While, research based on demand perspective is actually rather rare. In addition, research that puts supply perspective and demand perspective together as a combination is much rarer. In the tourism system, tourist flow just like a bridge or a bond which contacts two sub-systems together, which are supply and demand. Owing to the spatial diffusion of tourist flow, tourism finally be realized, which is a complex social, economic and cultural situation.This paper chooses the proliferation of inbound tourism flows as the breakthrough point. Thanks to related theories and research methods of tourism psychology, regional economics, sociology and system, this paper follows the logical order of the formation of tourism activity while it dissects the motives and mechanisms of the proliferation of tourist flow from three aspects, which are the intrinsic drive force, the external pull force and the support elements. Through empirical researches in these typical regions, the model is finally verified. Moreover, it puts forward proposal of the coordinated development of regional tourism industry. This paper will do well to the tourism-driven mechanism in that quantitative research of tourism-driven mechanism is promoted.Besides, it can also be used to guide the coordinated development of regional tourism industry. In other words, it is of great theoretical and practical significance.
Firstly, this paper analyses related conceptions and theories of tourist flow diffusion after the description of differences between regional development of inbound tourism of China and the process of their evolution.Secondly, it finds the entry point for this study based on the concept of system theory, the source of theories, the background of tourist flow, the development of perspective, etc. Around the formation and proliferation of tourist flow, it finally raises the theoretical basis of this paper while it constructs a spatial diffusion mechanism model of inbound tourism flow from a micro demand perspective. From this research, much can be received in that tourism flow is a subjective initiative liquid that is different from general geographical liquid.What's more, the motive sources of tourist flow are the intrinsic drive power, the external attractive power and the support condition.
With the support of this theoretical method, this paper explains the Chinese inbound tourist spatial diffusion mechanism through a variety of research methods.(1)By analysis of official statistical data and our questionnaire information, this paper demonstrates the hierarchical structure and the relationship between motives of tourist flow from a systematic perspective. It also identifies the hidden motives of the common types as well as it quantitative assessment of factors affecting the motivation and the motivation of the effects of consumer behavior. By this way, it verifies the role of the internal motives of the tourist flow diffusion behavior.
(2) Instead of current evaluation systems of the destination, this paper selects a market demand view in that it analyses destinations'attraction of typical regionals of our country. By comparing the relationship of attribute and tourists' quantity in different destinations, it verifies the hypothesis that destination's attraction for tourists is a function of tourists' perceived utility property for destination. By a statistical analysis of tourists' cognitive, Internet, intermediaries, travel guide's referral products, it verifies the theory hypothesis that the destinations images are the fundamental extensive power of the spread of tourism flows.
(3)From the view of market demand, this paper systematically analyses the relationship among scale, income, leisure, accessibility of major tourist original countries of China. In addition, it compares the relationship between the scale and the ability to travel to China of the major tourist source countries of China. Therefore, it attains the aim to quantitative assessment of the major tourist source countries of China. Finally, it concludes by saying that elements that have impacts on the ability of foreign tourists travel to China are discrete factors. Such as disposable income, leisure time and the accessible to China all have impact on it. Even, it is impacted by development of economic, development of social and these countries' connection with China. As a result, it verifies the theory that there is a high, short, frequent and fast material consumption in the context of the pursuit of efficiency in tourism consumption.
(4) According to discrete choice theory, a tourism destination selection is a result of a common effect of system component that means destination's attributes and random component that means tourist's features. Empirical studies have shown that among system component, traffic, service and facilities contribute the most to the selection of destinations. Then are factors of price, time and distance. To everyone's surprise, the scene and the hospitality of the host contribute the least to the selection of destinations. Among random component, the choice probability of the Western destinations is affected by elements of time spend on this trip, travel motivation, travel costs, professional, travel companion, travel mode, ports of entry, family structure, be respected, etc. Analysis that achieved by putting these two components together shows that selection of tourists' ports of entry is significantly effected by elements of geographic condition between tourists' origin and tourists'destination, the motivation of tourists, travel mode, tourism approach route, etc. By using "three forces" model to assess the probability of tourists'selection of Guilin, Xi'an and Kunming, it can be found that tourists have an effect of being attracted, pulled and resisted at the same time with direction.Besides, there is a strong correlation among these three forces.
Finally, this paper explains differences between regional development of inbound tourism of China and the process of their evolution with both macro and micro perspective. Advice of according a coordinate implementation of regional tourism development is put forward to the western of China. All in all, with the continuous emergence of new destinations and the increase of international air port and routes as well as short, frequent, fast demand trend of tourists, inbound tourism flow diffusion model of China will gradually shift to vertical proliferation instead of initial level of proliferation. To meet with this change, the western region need strengthening attractions destinations, highlighting characteristics of destination image through effective marketing tool.In addition, the western region must pay special attention to the accessibility of destination, setting up direct intercontinental routes and strengthening the function of port of entry.
This paper attempts to have innovation in the following aspects:
(1) this paper constructs a spatial diffusion mechanism model of inbound tourism flow from a micro demand perspective through integration of multiple method. Research shows that the General destination selection process under the influence of the intrinsic motivation, external attraction power and the intermediary's conditions are the best analysis point in driving mechanism of tourist flow diffusion, and the "three force model" is the development of the "push-pull" model.
(2)Among these three sources, the drive power is a fundamental driving force for it is constituted by tourist needs, motives and preferences while it has a clear hierarchical structure. By comparing the relationship of attribute and tourists'quantity in different destinations, it verifies the hypothesis that destination's attraction for tourists is a function of tourists'perceived utility property for destination.
(3)Treating the three air port of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou as the second hand market of inbound tourism, this paper build up a logistic discrete choice model of western destination baste on the intention date collected in the three port, and analysis the restricted factor by system method.
针对我国入境旅游区域发展的差异及其演化现象,论文首先对旅游流扩散所涉及的概念和理论进行了梳理和分析,围绕旅游流的形成及其扩散这个主题,从概念体系、理论源头、产生背景和发展轨迹视角,将相关的概念和理论加以分层剖析,提出适合本文主题的理论基础,从微观需求视角构建了入境旅游流扩散动力机制模型。研究认为,旅游流是不同于一般地理流质的具有主观能动性的流体,旅游流扩散的动力源来自内驱力、外引力和支持条件。
在上述理论框架的指导下,本文通过多种研究方法阐释和验证了中国入境旅游流扩散的动力机制：(1)通过对官方统计数据和项目组调研资料的分析,系统地论证了动机的层次结构及其之间的关系,识别出了内隐性动机的常见类型,量化考核了影响动机的因素以及动机对消费行为的影响效果,验证了动机对旅游流扩散行为的内在驱动作用。
(2)突破现有目的地评价的方法体系,另辟蹊径从市场需求角度分析我国典型区域目的地吸引力,通过对比目的地属性与接待量之关联性,验证了“目的地吸引力是旅游者对目的地属性效用感知的函数”的理论假设；通过对旅游者认知及国际互联网、中介商、旅游指南推介的线路产品曝光频率的统计分析,发现目的地知名度和美誉度呈现明显正相关,验证了“目的地形象是旅游流扩散的根本外动力”这一理论假设。
(3)从客源地角度,系统分析主要客源国旅华规模与其收入、闲暇与可达性之间的联系,比较典型区域的接待规模与其可达性之间的关系,量化考核了主要客源国的旅华潜力。结果发现,影响主要客源旅华潜力的因素具有离散性,是收入、闲暇和可达性等多种因素共同影响的结果,更是经济发展、社会发展和对华联系等因素共同作用的结果。验证了“在追求效率的背景下,旅游消费表现出了‘物质消费攀高’和‘短、频、快’的新趋势”。
(4)根据离散选择理论,旅游目的地选择是系统分量(目的地属性)和随机分量(旅游者特征)共同作用的结果。实证研究表明,在系统分量中,旅游交通、服务和设施等促成因素构成了目的地选择的核心影响因素,价格、时间和距离等限制性因素的作用位居次席,而旅游景区、东道主好客性等核心吸引物的作用最小。在随机分量中,“旅华停留时间、旅游动机、旅游花费、职业、旅游伴侣、旅游方式、入境口岸、家庭结构、受到尊重”等旅游者特征影响中转型旅游流西扩的概率。把两种分量结合起来的对应分析表明,“O-D之间的区位条件、旅游者动机、旅游方式、航线布局”等因素显著影响入境口岸选择；用“三力”模型考核旅游流对桂林、西安、昆明等选择概率,发现在目的地选择中旅游者受到的推力、拉力和阻力本身就具有方向性,而且三力之间的关联性较强。
文章最后以西部为例提出了实现区域旅游协调发展的建议,研究认为,随着新兴目的地的不断涌现,国际航空口岸和航线的增加,以及“短、频、快”的需求趋势,我国入境旅游流扩散模式由初期的水平扩散为主,逐渐转向垂直扩散。在这样的背景下,西部地区要实现跨越式发展,除了强化目的地综合吸引力,通过有效的营销手段突出目的地特色形象之外,还需改善目的地的可达性,开辟洲际直通航线,强化自身的口岸功能。
本文从需求视角系统分析入境旅游流扩散机制,突破了长期以来基于供给视角的旅游驱动机制研究范式,是一种有益的探索,并试图在以下几个方面有所创新：
(1)实现多学科理论集成,构建了入境旅游流扩散驱动机制分析框架,认为在“内驱力、外引力和中介力”综合影响下的目的地选择过程,是旅游流扩散研究的最佳切入点,而且“三力”模式是对已有“推-拉”模式的拓展和完善；
(2)构建了一个包含“旅游需要→旅游动机→旅游偏好”的内驱力结构模型,厘清了旅游活动内驱力的结构层次,认为旅游者偏好的多样性是旅游流扩散的直接主观原因。通过实证研究发现,从旅游者视角剖析目的地引力构成要素是一种非常有效的目的地吸引力评价手段；
(3)视“北京、上海、广州”等三大口岸为西部的“二手客源地”,以在此采集的西扩“意愿数据”为基础,构建了中转型旅游流西扩的logistic离散选择模型,系统分析了“东客西移”的约束因素,可谓是一种低成本高效率的研究方法。
此外,本文在观点上也有一些创新。
With the status of the tourism industry increasing, tourist destinations have to face with much inevitable competition.Particularly, some traditional destinations are subject to an unprecedented challenge. Thus, research about tourism-driven mechanism values the attention of scholars. However, current research about tourism-driven mechanisms mainly concentrates on the supply perspective. While, research based on demand perspective is actually rather rare. In addition, research that puts supply perspective and demand perspective together as a combination is much rarer. In the tourism system, tourist flow just like a bridge or a bond which contacts two sub-systems together, which are supply and demand. Owing to the spatial diffusion of tourist flow, tourism finally be realized, which is a complex social, economic and cultural situation.This paper chooses the proliferation of inbound tourism flows as the breakthrough point. Thanks to related theories and research methods of tourism psychology, regional economics, sociology and system, this paper follows the logical order of the formation of tourism activity while it dissects the motives and mechanisms of the proliferation of tourist flow from three aspects, which are the intrinsic drive force, the external pull force and the support elements. Through empirical researches in these typical regions, the model is finally verified. Moreover, it puts forward proposal of the coordinated development of regional tourism industry. This paper will do well to the tourism-driven mechanism in that quantitative research of tourism-driven mechanism is promoted.Besides, it can also be used to guide the coordinated development of regional tourism industry. In other words, it is of great theoretical and practical significance.
Firstly, this paper analyses related conceptions and theories of tourist flow diffusion after the description of differences between regional development of inbound tourism of China and the process of their evolution.Secondly, it finds the entry point for this study based on the concept of system theory, the source of theories, the background of tourist flow, the development of perspective, etc. Around the formation and proliferation of tourist flow, it finally raises the theoretical basis of this paper while it constructs a spatial diffusion mechanism model of inbound tourism flow from a micro demand perspective. From this research, much can be received in that tourism flow is a subjective initiative liquid that is different from general geographical liquid.What's more, the motive sources of tourist flow are the intrinsic drive power, the external attractive power and the support condition.
With the support of this theoretical method, this paper explains the Chinese inbound tourist spatial diffusion mechanism through a variety of research methods.(1)By analysis of official statistical data and our questionnaire information, this paper demonstrates the hierarchical structure and the relationship between motives of tourist flow from a systematic perspective. It also identifies the hidden motives of the common types as well as it quantitative assessment of factors affecting the motivation and the motivation of the effects of consumer behavior. By this way, it verifies the role of the internal motives of the tourist flow diffusion behavior.
(2) Instead of current evaluation systems of the destination, this paper selects a market demand view in that it analyses destinations'attraction of typical regionals of our country. By comparing the relationship of attribute and tourists' quantity in different destinations, it verifies the hypothesis that destination's attraction for tourists is a function of tourists' perceived utility property for destination. By a statistical analysis of tourists' cognitive, Internet, intermediaries, travel guide's referral products, it verifies the theory hypothesis that the destinations images are the fundamental extensive power of the spread of tourism flows.
(3)From the view of market demand, this paper systematically analyses the relationship among scale, income, leisure, accessibility of major tourist original countries of China. In addition, it compares the relationship between the scale and the ability to travel to China of the major tourist source countries of China. Therefore, it attains the aim to quantitative assessment of the major tourist source countries of China. Finally, it concludes by saying that elements that have impacts on the ability of foreign tourists travel to China are discrete factors. Such as disposable income, leisure time and the accessible to China all have impact on it. Even, it is impacted by development of economic, development of social and these countries' connection with China. As a result, it verifies the theory that there is a high, short, frequent and fast material consumption in the context of the pursuit of efficiency in tourism consumption.
(4) According to discrete choice theory, a tourism destination selection is a result of a common effect of system component that means destination's attributes and random component that means tourist's features. Empirical studies have shown that among system component, traffic, service and facilities contribute the most to the selection of destinations. Then are factors of price, time and distance. To everyone's surprise, the scene and the hospitality of the host contribute the least to the selection of destinations. Among random component, the choice probability of the Western destinations is affected by elements of time spend on this trip, travel motivation, travel costs, professional, travel companion, travel mode, ports of entry, family structure, be respected, etc. Analysis that achieved by putting these two components together shows that selection of tourists' ports of entry is significantly effected by elements of geographic condition between tourists' origin and tourists'destination, the motivation of tourists, travel mode, tourism approach route, etc. By using "three forces" model to assess the probability of tourists'selection of Guilin, Xi'an and Kunming, it can be found that tourists have an effect of being attracted, pulled and resisted at the same time with direction.Besides, there is a strong correlation among these three forces.
Finally, this paper explains differences between regional development of inbound tourism of China and the process of their evolution with both macro and micro perspective. Advice of according a coordinate implementation of regional tourism development is put forward to the western of China. All in all, with the continuous emergence of new destinations and the increase of international air port and routes as well as short, frequent, fast demand trend of tourists, inbound tourism flow diffusion model of China will gradually shift to vertical proliferation instead of initial level of proliferation. To meet with this change, the western region need strengthening attractions destinations, highlighting characteristics of destination image through effective marketing tool.In addition, the western region must pay special attention to the accessibility of destination, setting up direct intercontinental routes and strengthening the function of port of entry.
This paper attempts to have innovation in the following aspects:
(1) this paper constructs a spatial diffusion mechanism model of inbound tourism flow from a micro demand perspective through integration of multiple method. Research shows that the General destination selection process under the influence of the intrinsic motivation, external attraction power and the intermediary's conditions are the best analysis point in driving mechanism of tourist flow diffusion, and the "three force model" is the development of the "push-pull" model.
(2)Among these three sources, the drive power is a fundamental driving force for it is constituted by tourist needs, motives and preferences while it has a clear hierarchical structure. By comparing the relationship of attribute and tourists'quantity in different destinations, it verifies the hypothesis that destination's attraction for tourists is a function of tourists'perceived utility property for destination.
(3)Treating the three air port of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou as the second hand market of inbound tourism, this paper build up a logistic discrete choice model of western destination baste on the intention date collected in the three port, and analysis the restricted factor by system method.
引文
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②注：此处的旅游去概念并不是严格按照行政区划的范围划分的,如昆明是对云南西北热点旅游区的指代.
③注：针对旅游市场竞争日趋激烈的局面,云南省于2005年正式提出了旅游“二次创业”的说法.
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①注：引自《中国旅游业50年》,