人民币国际化的作用、影响与路径
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摘要
国际化货币是指那些在发行国以外被广泛用于贸易与金融交易计价与结算,并被外国公共及私人部门广泛持有的货币。与国内范畴的货币职能相同,国际化货币在国际范围内执行计价单位、交易媒介以及价值储藏三大职能。这些职能同时也是衡量该货币国际化程度的标准和依据,具体来说,一种货币达到国际化货币的主要表现是：国内企业广泛使用本国货币作为其一部分或者全部出口贸易的计价货币;外国公司、金融机构、政府及个人可以通过合法途径持有该货币和相关金融资产等。
大部分国家都希望本国的货币可以国际化,这是因为对于私人部门来说,国际化可以帮助企业完全规避汇率风险；而对于公共部门,国际化可以使该国政府在国际金融市场上的借贷成本大大降低,而这种公共借贷开支的节省也会使私人部门融资的成本降低,从而为企业的发展提供一个更好的环境。同时,货币国际化也会给该国带来一定的负面影响,这种风险一方面可以用著名的“蒙代尔三角”理论来解释,另一方面,由于外国投资者的加入,为本国金融市场带来了更多的风险因素。因此,一国货币的国际化,首先要权衡这种利益与风险的对比关系,即不应冒进,也不要过于保守。在适当的情况下,政府可以进行政策干预,从而加速货币的国际化进程。
政府要推动国际化,首先要搞清楚货币国际化的决定因素,从而选择合适的方法达到该目标。本文考察了美元的成功经验与日元失败的教训：美国在经济规模达到一定水平的情况下,为推动美元国际化建立了美联储,从而加强了投资者对市场的信心,同时支持银行发行银行承兑等金融产品,并在该市场形成的初期对其进行了合理的干预。此外,美国还开拓了欧洲美元的市场,极大的拓宽了美元国际使用的地域范围,从而很快的使美元成为了最重要的国际货币。反观日本,其推动日元国际化的时机选择并不理想,且一直使用税收等间接手段刺激日元的国际使用,这样的方法以及日本经济在同期低迷的表现导致了日元国际化的失败。这些经验说明,货币国际化的根本动力在于需求,一国经济总量和在国际贸易中的地位决定了这种需求。在此基础上,政府可以推行开放的货币政策满足国际需要,从而推动货币的国际化。
随着发展中国家的发展,其在世界经济的整体份额已经达到了一半左右,而且以我国为代表的发展中国家已经在世界贸易网络中占据了非常重要的地位,因此,现在对于主要发展中国家货币国际化情况的考察是非常及时而且必要的。为此,本文考察了金砖五国货币的国际供需情况,并发现除人民币外,其他四国货币的国际需求距离主要国际货币的水平还有很大的差距,而人民则是唯一具有在短期内实现国际化潜质的货币。以人民币为首的发展中国家货币的国际化,可以为公共部门和私人部门的投资经理提供更多样的资产选择,同时也有利于推动相关区域金融一体化进程及规避外汇风险。
为此,我国已经制定了一系列推动人民币国际化的政策并开展了相关工作。但是,我国为了积累人民币在离岸市场的流动性,实施了鼓励进口交易在离岸市场人民币结算的政策。由于人民币存在很强的升值预期,该政策诱使很多贸易商以贸易结算为名进行套利,这一方面不利于人民币海外流动性的积累,同时还为离岸市场制造了巨大的风险。为了解决这一问题,我国应该将人民币国际化与开放资本账户结合起来,循序渐进的推动各项工作。
除了资本账户的开放,人民币离岸市场的发展策略对国际化也具有举足轻重的作用。我国已经实行了一系列的优惠政策来支持以香港为枢纽的离岸市场的发展。在短期内,伦敦和新加坡等后起之秀仍然无法替代香港在离岸市场中的核心地位,同时上海金融市场也很难达到一定的开放程度,因此,我国还是要以发展香港为中心,并利用香港的金融市场发达的基础设施等优势带动其他市场的发展,从而全面推动人民币的国际使用。
人民币国家化的一个重要影响就是人民币加入特别提款权货币篮子,这是对人民币国际货币地位的一种官方承认,同时是否达到货币篮子的加入标准也是对人民币国际化程度的一种考察。面对严峻的国际金融形势,IMF希望人民币于2015年加入特别提款权。根据本文论证,尽早加入虽然有利于我国的外汇储备管理,但是却并不利于我国金融市场的稳定,而加快香港离岸市场的发展也会给在岸市场带来风险。因此人民币加入特别提款权不宜过急。恰当的选择时机是国际化成功的关键。
International currency generally refers to those are widely used as settlement and contracting currency, as well as widely held by foreign countries and citizens. Similar to the domestic functions of currency, international currency serves as unit of value, exchange media and value reserve at the global level. Such functions are also a yardstick for measure to what extent the currency are already internationalized. More specifically, for the measuring internationalization purpose, it is of essence to examine the range of good trade settled in the domestic currency.
Many are hoping to internationalize their currency, the motivation of which is that international currency would be of help for private sector to avoid exchange risk, and for public sector to access to low cost fund. In the meanwhile, there are also a handful of risks inherent in the process, such as new risk factor to the domestic financial market. As such, countries should balancing the cost and benefit upfront.
To fuel the internationalization, the government had better identify the dispositive factor for the process. This paper examines the experiences of thriving dollar and slumped Yen. US chose a perfect timing for internationalization, properly found its central bank and provides the initial momentum for the bank acceptance, whereas Japan wrongly chose a bad timing and adopt very conservative means to motivate the international use of yen. Accordingly, the paper concludes that the drive force of the internationalization derive from international demand, determined by economy scale of the countries. Alongside this, a set of open and aggressive monetary policies would bring the internationalization home.
With the accelerated development, emerging market as a whole has occupies almost50%of the world economy amount. Therefore, it is the perfect time to examine the potential of main developing countries becoming international currency. Ground on the estimation on BRICS's currency, the paper contends that only RMB is capable of becoming main international currency in short term. In addition, the internationalization would not only benefit the issuing country, but also bring about positive external effect:it would make the asset pool for foreign portfolio manager regardless in public or private sector, more diverse.
With aforesaid objective, China has already designed a roadmap for internationalize RMB. But the plan was too much focus on RMB import settlement in offshore market, therefore generating an avenue for trade firms to take advantage of appreciation expectation of RMB and arbitrage, which in turn creates substantial risk in the market. To address this problem, China has to keep RMB internationalization in line with the pace of capital market openness. This approach would also ensure the internationalization to be unfolded in a progressive manner.
Beside opening capital account, the policy as to developing RMB off-shore market is of paramount importance. China has already put into place a bundle of policies that encourage the Hong Kong offshore market's development. In short-run, London, as well as Singapore still cannot replace Hong Kong as the dominant player in terms of offshore markets. Therefore, China should maintain the Hong Kong's status as the offshore RMB financial hub, while using Hong Kong's financial infrastructure to facilitate other offshore markets'development.
Another important influence of RMB internationalization is that IMF has been sincerely inviting RMB to join its SDR currency market. This is supposed to be an official acknowledge of RMB's wide international use. IMF was hoping that RMB would be included in SDR in2015, but this paper suggests otherwise. Although including SDR into SDR basket would bring China a desirable investment vehicle for foreign reserve management, it would also pose substantial risk on China's undeveloped financial market. Therefore, the benefit of accelerating internationalization of RMB would probably be outweighed by the associated risk, and thus the IMF's tempting offer should be denied.
大部分国家都希望本国的货币可以国际化,这是因为对于私人部门来说,国际化可以帮助企业完全规避汇率风险；而对于公共部门,国际化可以使该国政府在国际金融市场上的借贷成本大大降低,而这种公共借贷开支的节省也会使私人部门融资的成本降低,从而为企业的发展提供一个更好的环境。同时,货币国际化也会给该国带来一定的负面影响,这种风险一方面可以用著名的“蒙代尔三角”理论来解释,另一方面,由于外国投资者的加入,为本国金融市场带来了更多的风险因素。因此,一国货币的国际化,首先要权衡这种利益与风险的对比关系,即不应冒进,也不要过于保守。在适当的情况下,政府可以进行政策干预,从而加速货币的国际化进程。
政府要推动国际化,首先要搞清楚货币国际化的决定因素,从而选择合适的方法达到该目标。本文考察了美元的成功经验与日元失败的教训：美国在经济规模达到一定水平的情况下,为推动美元国际化建立了美联储,从而加强了投资者对市场的信心,同时支持银行发行银行承兑等金融产品,并在该市场形成的初期对其进行了合理的干预。此外,美国还开拓了欧洲美元的市场,极大的拓宽了美元国际使用的地域范围,从而很快的使美元成为了最重要的国际货币。反观日本,其推动日元国际化的时机选择并不理想,且一直使用税收等间接手段刺激日元的国际使用,这样的方法以及日本经济在同期低迷的表现导致了日元国际化的失败。这些经验说明,货币国际化的根本动力在于需求,一国经济总量和在国际贸易中的地位决定了这种需求。在此基础上,政府可以推行开放的货币政策满足国际需要,从而推动货币的国际化。
随着发展中国家的发展,其在世界经济的整体份额已经达到了一半左右,而且以我国为代表的发展中国家已经在世界贸易网络中占据了非常重要的地位,因此,现在对于主要发展中国家货币国际化情况的考察是非常及时而且必要的。为此,本文考察了金砖五国货币的国际供需情况,并发现除人民币外,其他四国货币的国际需求距离主要国际货币的水平还有很大的差距,而人民则是唯一具有在短期内实现国际化潜质的货币。以人民币为首的发展中国家货币的国际化,可以为公共部门和私人部门的投资经理提供更多样的资产选择,同时也有利于推动相关区域金融一体化进程及规避外汇风险。
为此,我国已经制定了一系列推动人民币国际化的政策并开展了相关工作。但是,我国为了积累人民币在离岸市场的流动性,实施了鼓励进口交易在离岸市场人民币结算的政策。由于人民币存在很强的升值预期,该政策诱使很多贸易商以贸易结算为名进行套利,这一方面不利于人民币海外流动性的积累,同时还为离岸市场制造了巨大的风险。为了解决这一问题,我国应该将人民币国际化与开放资本账户结合起来,循序渐进的推动各项工作。
除了资本账户的开放,人民币离岸市场的发展策略对国际化也具有举足轻重的作用。我国已经实行了一系列的优惠政策来支持以香港为枢纽的离岸市场的发展。在短期内,伦敦和新加坡等后起之秀仍然无法替代香港在离岸市场中的核心地位,同时上海金融市场也很难达到一定的开放程度,因此,我国还是要以发展香港为中心,并利用香港的金融市场发达的基础设施等优势带动其他市场的发展,从而全面推动人民币的国际使用。
人民币国家化的一个重要影响就是人民币加入特别提款权货币篮子,这是对人民币国际货币地位的一种官方承认,同时是否达到货币篮子的加入标准也是对人民币国际化程度的一种考察。面对严峻的国际金融形势,IMF希望人民币于2015年加入特别提款权。根据本文论证,尽早加入虽然有利于我国的外汇储备管理,但是却并不利于我国金融市场的稳定,而加快香港离岸市场的发展也会给在岸市场带来风险。因此人民币加入特别提款权不宜过急。恰当的选择时机是国际化成功的关键。
International currency generally refers to those are widely used as settlement and contracting currency, as well as widely held by foreign countries and citizens. Similar to the domestic functions of currency, international currency serves as unit of value, exchange media and value reserve at the global level. Such functions are also a yardstick for measure to what extent the currency are already internationalized. More specifically, for the measuring internationalization purpose, it is of essence to examine the range of good trade settled in the domestic currency.
Many are hoping to internationalize their currency, the motivation of which is that international currency would be of help for private sector to avoid exchange risk, and for public sector to access to low cost fund. In the meanwhile, there are also a handful of risks inherent in the process, such as new risk factor to the domestic financial market. As such, countries should balancing the cost and benefit upfront.
To fuel the internationalization, the government had better identify the dispositive factor for the process. This paper examines the experiences of thriving dollar and slumped Yen. US chose a perfect timing for internationalization, properly found its central bank and provides the initial momentum for the bank acceptance, whereas Japan wrongly chose a bad timing and adopt very conservative means to motivate the international use of yen. Accordingly, the paper concludes that the drive force of the internationalization derive from international demand, determined by economy scale of the countries. Alongside this, a set of open and aggressive monetary policies would bring the internationalization home.
With the accelerated development, emerging market as a whole has occupies almost50%of the world economy amount. Therefore, it is the perfect time to examine the potential of main developing countries becoming international currency. Ground on the estimation on BRICS's currency, the paper contends that only RMB is capable of becoming main international currency in short term. In addition, the internationalization would not only benefit the issuing country, but also bring about positive external effect:it would make the asset pool for foreign portfolio manager regardless in public or private sector, more diverse.
With aforesaid objective, China has already designed a roadmap for internationalize RMB. But the plan was too much focus on RMB import settlement in offshore market, therefore generating an avenue for trade firms to take advantage of appreciation expectation of RMB and arbitrage, which in turn creates substantial risk in the market. To address this problem, China has to keep RMB internationalization in line with the pace of capital market openness. This approach would also ensure the internationalization to be unfolded in a progressive manner.
Beside opening capital account, the policy as to developing RMB off-shore market is of paramount importance. China has already put into place a bundle of policies that encourage the Hong Kong offshore market's development. In short-run, London, as well as Singapore still cannot replace Hong Kong as the dominant player in terms of offshore markets. Therefore, China should maintain the Hong Kong's status as the offshore RMB financial hub, while using Hong Kong's financial infrastructure to facilitate other offshore markets'development.
Another important influence of RMB internationalization is that IMF has been sincerely inviting RMB to join its SDR currency market. This is supposed to be an official acknowledge of RMB's wide international use. IMF was hoping that RMB would be included in SDR in2015, but this paper suggests otherwise. Although including SDR into SDR basket would bring China a desirable investment vehicle for foreign reserve management, it would also pose substantial risk on China's undeveloped financial market. Therefore, the benefit of accelerating internationalization of RMB would probably be outweighed by the associated risk, and thus the IMF's tempting offer should be denied.
引文
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