含大规模可再生能源的电力系统可靠性问题研究
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摘要
环境的日益恶化与传统化石能源的不可再生性以及公众对于核能发电安全性的顾虑促进了风能和太阳能等可再生能源发电形式的持续快速发展。但这些新能源发电形式都具有间歇性和随机性的运行特点，不稳定的输出特性与不可控的源动力给电力系统的安全稳定运行带来消极的影响，因此迫切需要对并入大规模新能源后的系统可靠性进行研究。本文主要基于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真方法，在深入分析风能与太阳能的能量转换特性基础上，研究新能源并网对电力系统不同层次可靠性的影响。
建立最大限度逼近风电场与光伏电站实际时序功率输出特性的模型是进行可靠性评估的首要任务。基于序贯蒙特卡洛方法建立风电场及光伏电站的可靠性评估模型。对于风电场，采用时间序列对风速进行建模，同时计及风电机组的随机强迫停运以及由机组设计参数和控制特性决定的功率转换特性；对于光伏电站，以日地天文关系计算出的太阳辐照度为基础，通过对地面有效辐照度的分解引入逐时晴空指数来体现光照强度变化的随机性，并用时间序列方法对逐日温度建模，用正弦分段法获得逐时温度，最后依据光伏电池板的能量转换特性得到它的输出功率时间序列。
在建立的风电与光伏可靠性模型基础上，将之与负荷模型相结合，采用序贯蒙特卡洛方法评估单一资源发电充裕度及容量可信度，研究了通过不同可靠性指标计算容量可信度结果的差别；然后提出了考虑协调运行的含风电、光伏及储能的混合发电系统可靠性评估模型，并研究不同的协调运行策略对系统可靠性与经济性方面的影响；最后，基于入射光辐照强度的模拟结果与概率理论，提出并建立了用于含大规模光伏的系统运行备用评估的功率状态变换模型，研究了光伏对机组投运风险度的影响。
复合发输电系统可靠性评估可以用来衡量电网按需输送电能的能力，将风电及光伏的可靠性模型加入大电力系统可靠性评估框架体系，研究经由不同节点接入不同容量风电、光伏以及由它们组成的混合发电系统对于系统可靠性的影响。此外，基于蒙特卡洛状态变换采样方法获得的多状态高压直流输电系统容量模型提出了含可再生能源的交直流混合发输电系统可靠性评估模型，研究采用不同输电方案对系统可靠性的影响。
通用发生函数提供了一种直观的、系统的方法可用来描述由多态元素构成的连续系统，它可以提供较为优越的计算性能，非常适用于解决基于可靠性的优化问题。文中提出和建立了基于通用发生函数的风电场与光伏电站可靠性模型。该模型建立过程以可靠性框图法为基础，通过可靠性意义上的系统构成元素划分与依赖关系定义，利用发生函数服从结合律与交换律的性质，通过迭代的方法从子系统元素出发，递归的得到代表系统性能水平分布的通用发生函数。依据该方法建立起的模型可以通过自定义的复合算子与原有可靠性评估方法相融合，为电力系统可靠性评估提供新的思路与方法。
Wind power generation, solar photovoltaic power generation and other renewableenergy generation technologies remain rapid and sustained development worldwide due tothe deteriorating environment, depleting fossil resources and public concerns about thesafety of nuclear power. The intermittency and randomness are typical operational charac-teristics of these renewable energy generation technologies. Fluctuant power output anduncontrollable driving force bring negative effects to the safety and reliability of powersystem operation. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the reliability of system after inter-connecting large-scale renewable energy sources to the power system. This paper focus onassessing the impacts of integrating large-scale new energy into grid on reliability of dif-ferent hierarchical level of power system bases on sequential Monte Carlo approach afterdeeply studying the energy conversion characteristic of wind power and solar power.
The first priority for reliability evaluation is to build chronological models of windpower and solar Photovoltaic (PV) which can keep inherent characteristic of natural re-source as much as possible. Models of solar energy and wind energy for reliability as-sessment are developed based on sequential Monte Carlo approach. For wind farm, windspeeds are simulated with auto-regressive and moving average model (ARMA) time seriesmodel, stochastic forced outage of wind turbine and power output feature determined bydesign parameters and control characteristic are taken into consideration. For solar PVpower station, extraterrestrial solar radiation calculated by solar-terrestrial relations istaken as the base. Hourly clearness index is introduced to represent the randomness of so-lar radiation variation. Time series model is used to mimic daily temperature. After this,hourly temperature can be generated with sub-sine method. Finally power output time se-quence can be obtained according to energy conversion characteristic of solar PV module.
After modeling wind power and solar PV for reliability assessment, they are com-bined with load model to evaluate generation adequacy and capacity credit of system withsingle renewable resource based on sequential Monte Carlo approach. The results of ca-pacity credit calculated with different reliability index are compared. A method for ade-quacy assessment of generating system consists of wind, solar and energy storage consid- ering the coordinated operation is proposed and the effects of different operating strategyon system reliability are investigated. Finally power output state transition model of solarPV for operating reserve risk assessment is proposed on the basis of simulation results ofincident radiation and probability theory. The impacts of solar PV on unit commitmentrisk are studied with the established model.
Composite generation and transmission system adequacy assessment can be used tomeasure the ability of bulk electric system to supply reliable electrical energy to the majorsystem load point. The reliability model of wind power and solar power are incorporatedinto bulk electric system reliability evaluation framework. The effects of connecting windenergy conversion system, solar PV as well as hybrid generation system using both ofthem to different locations on system reliability are investigated. Moreover, the capacitymodel of high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission system is obtained with statetransition sampling technique. A procedure for adequacy assessment of composite genera-tion and transmission system with HVDC links containing large-scale renewable energygeneration is proposed. And how the different transmission schemes affect the system re-liability is discussed.
Universal generating function (UGF) allows one to find the performance distributionof consecutive system consists of multistate elements in a straightforward and systematicway. It is particularly useful for solving optimization problem based on reliability due toits extraordinary computational performance. Reliability modeling for wind power andsolar PV using UGF are proposed. The foundation for building model is reliability blockdiagram method, which can be used to obtain the partition of the subsystem and depend-ency relationship between elements within a system in the sense of reliability. Theu-function which can represent the performance distribution of whole system can be ob-tained by recursively computing theu-function of the subsystem bases on the commuta-tive and associative property of UGF. The established model can merge into existing relia-bility analysis method by self-defined composition operator, which can provide differentpoint of view for power system reliability evaluation.
建立最大限度逼近风电场与光伏电站实际时序功率输出特性的模型是进行可靠性评估的首要任务。基于序贯蒙特卡洛方法建立风电场及光伏电站的可靠性评估模型。对于风电场，采用时间序列对风速进行建模，同时计及风电机组的随机强迫停运以及由机组设计参数和控制特性决定的功率转换特性；对于光伏电站，以日地天文关系计算出的太阳辐照度为基础，通过对地面有效辐照度的分解引入逐时晴空指数来体现光照强度变化的随机性，并用时间序列方法对逐日温度建模，用正弦分段法获得逐时温度，最后依据光伏电池板的能量转换特性得到它的输出功率时间序列。
在建立的风电与光伏可靠性模型基础上，将之与负荷模型相结合，采用序贯蒙特卡洛方法评估单一资源发电充裕度及容量可信度，研究了通过不同可靠性指标计算容量可信度结果的差别；然后提出了考虑协调运行的含风电、光伏及储能的混合发电系统可靠性评估模型，并研究不同的协调运行策略对系统可靠性与经济性方面的影响；最后，基于入射光辐照强度的模拟结果与概率理论，提出并建立了用于含大规模光伏的系统运行备用评估的功率状态变换模型，研究了光伏对机组投运风险度的影响。
复合发输电系统可靠性评估可以用来衡量电网按需输送电能的能力，将风电及光伏的可靠性模型加入大电力系统可靠性评估框架体系，研究经由不同节点接入不同容量风电、光伏以及由它们组成的混合发电系统对于系统可靠性的影响。此外，基于蒙特卡洛状态变换采样方法获得的多状态高压直流输电系统容量模型提出了含可再生能源的交直流混合发输电系统可靠性评估模型，研究采用不同输电方案对系统可靠性的影响。
通用发生函数提供了一种直观的、系统的方法可用来描述由多态元素构成的连续系统，它可以提供较为优越的计算性能，非常适用于解决基于可靠性的优化问题。文中提出和建立了基于通用发生函数的风电场与光伏电站可靠性模型。该模型建立过程以可靠性框图法为基础，通过可靠性意义上的系统构成元素划分与依赖关系定义，利用发生函数服从结合律与交换律的性质，通过迭代的方法从子系统元素出发，递归的得到代表系统性能水平分布的通用发生函数。依据该方法建立起的模型可以通过自定义的复合算子与原有可靠性评估方法相融合，为电力系统可靠性评估提供新的思路与方法。
Wind power generation, solar photovoltaic power generation and other renewableenergy generation technologies remain rapid and sustained development worldwide due tothe deteriorating environment, depleting fossil resources and public concerns about thesafety of nuclear power. The intermittency and randomness are typical operational charac-teristics of these renewable energy generation technologies. Fluctuant power output anduncontrollable driving force bring negative effects to the safety and reliability of powersystem operation. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the reliability of system after inter-connecting large-scale renewable energy sources to the power system. This paper focus onassessing the impacts of integrating large-scale new energy into grid on reliability of dif-ferent hierarchical level of power system bases on sequential Monte Carlo approach afterdeeply studying the energy conversion characteristic of wind power and solar power.
The first priority for reliability evaluation is to build chronological models of windpower and solar Photovoltaic (PV) which can keep inherent characteristic of natural re-source as much as possible. Models of solar energy and wind energy for reliability as-sessment are developed based on sequential Monte Carlo approach. For wind farm, windspeeds are simulated with auto-regressive and moving average model (ARMA) time seriesmodel, stochastic forced outage of wind turbine and power output feature determined bydesign parameters and control characteristic are taken into consideration. For solar PVpower station, extraterrestrial solar radiation calculated by solar-terrestrial relations istaken as the base. Hourly clearness index is introduced to represent the randomness of so-lar radiation variation. Time series model is used to mimic daily temperature. After this,hourly temperature can be generated with sub-sine method. Finally power output time se-quence can be obtained according to energy conversion characteristic of solar PV module.
After modeling wind power and solar PV for reliability assessment, they are com-bined with load model to evaluate generation adequacy and capacity credit of system withsingle renewable resource based on sequential Monte Carlo approach. The results of ca-pacity credit calculated with different reliability index are compared. A method for ade-quacy assessment of generating system consists of wind, solar and energy storage consid- ering the coordinated operation is proposed and the effects of different operating strategyon system reliability are investigated. Finally power output state transition model of solarPV for operating reserve risk assessment is proposed on the basis of simulation results ofincident radiation and probability theory. The impacts of solar PV on unit commitmentrisk are studied with the established model.
Composite generation and transmission system adequacy assessment can be used tomeasure the ability of bulk electric system to supply reliable electrical energy to the majorsystem load point. The reliability model of wind power and solar power are incorporatedinto bulk electric system reliability evaluation framework. The effects of connecting windenergy conversion system, solar PV as well as hybrid generation system using both ofthem to different locations on system reliability are investigated. Moreover, the capacitymodel of high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission system is obtained with statetransition sampling technique. A procedure for adequacy assessment of composite genera-tion and transmission system with HVDC links containing large-scale renewable energygeneration is proposed. And how the different transmission schemes affect the system re-liability is discussed.
Universal generating function (UGF) allows one to find the performance distributionof consecutive system consists of multistate elements in a straightforward and systematicway. It is particularly useful for solving optimization problem based on reliability due toits extraordinary computational performance. Reliability modeling for wind power andsolar PV using UGF are proposed. The foundation for building model is reliability blockdiagram method, which can be used to obtain the partition of the subsystem and depend-ency relationship between elements within a system in the sense of reliability. Theu-function which can represent the performance distribution of whole system can be ob-tained by recursively computing theu-function of the subsystem bases on the commuta-tive and associative property of UGF. The established model can merge into existing relia-bility analysis method by self-defined composition operator, which can provide differentpoint of view for power system reliability evaluation.
引文
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