敦煌市水资源承载能力研究
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摘要
水是关系到国计民生、生态平衡的基础性资源之一。目前,水资源短缺已成为人类社会所面临的普遍问题,如何解决好水资源短缺与社会经济发展、生态环境平衡之间的相互协调关系,是当前人们共同关注、科学界集中研究的热点课题。本文以此为选题大背景,本着对水资源可持续利用的原则,从水资源、社会经济、生态环境之间的关系着手,对敦煌市不同水平年的水资源供需进行了分析预测,并以此构建了水资源承载能力综合评价模型,通过对供需平衡结果和综合评价结论的分析,提出了水资源承载能力提高的措施。不仅可为管理者提供决策理论依据,实现对水资源的合理开发和利用,同时也对提高人们节约用水意识,建立节水型、环保型城市等方面具有重要意义。
敦煌市地处欧亚大陆腹地,四周又被沙漠戈壁所包围,是典型的“沙漠绿洲”型城市,降雨稀少、蒸发强烈、可利用水资源量极其有限。近年来,因人们对水资源的高强度开采利用,超越了其最大可承载能力,导致了一系列的水环境问题凸现,严重影响到社会经济的可持续发展,也使得享有盛名的莫高窟、月牙泉等文化遗产和自然奇观的安全与长存受到威胁。
本文在深入分析敦煌水资源状况及特征的基础上,采用常规趋势预测方法对敦煌市现状2005年、规划2010、2020年的水资源供需作了预测与平衡分析。其结果为:若不考虑外流域调水,则水资源的供需关系均为不同程度的缺水,且所缺水资源量主要是生态环境的需水量得不到满足,生态环境质量不能维持现状,还会继续缓慢恶化;如考虑外流域调水入境后,则水资源供需可达平衡状态,生态环境质量将会不断改善与恢复。
在常规预测的基础上,结合国内外水资源承载能力研究进展情况,通过专家结论和灰色关联系数计算相结合的方法筛选出了能充分表征敦煌市水资源承载能力的8项评价因子,利用筛选因子建立了多目标决策-理想区间(MODMIIM)综合评价模型。然后再结合敦煌市实际,拟定了三种不同的水资源开发利用情景,将不同情境方案下的指标因子代入MODMIIM,进行对2005、2010和2020年的水资源承载能力综合分析与评价。评价结果显示:敦煌市不同水平年的水资源承载能力均表现为Ⅲ级,较弱的承载状态,但通过节水、废水回用、外流域调水等措施可使其承载能力逐渐提高,尤其是在实施调水入境后,水资源承载能力可由较弱(Ⅲ级)变为一般(Ⅱ级)状态。这些均与常规供需平衡分析结果相一致,也和人们的主观定性认识相符合,证明所建评价模型可信度较高,能够真实有效的反映出敦煌市水资源承载能力的状况。
最后,在综合评价结论的基础上提出了一些针对性强、可操作高的提高敦煌市水资源承载能力的措施,以保证敦煌市未来社会经济发展中对水资源的可持续开发与利用,实现水资源、社会经济、生态环境之间的相互和谐,为发展环境友好型、资源节约型的现代化旅游城市创造良好条件。
Water is the one of the basic resources which relates to the national economy and the people's livelihood and the ecologic balance. At present, the lack of the water resource becomes the rife problem to the human society, how to resolve the mutual relationship among the shortage of water, society economic development and the ecologic balance are the hotspot of people focus on and scientific research.The paper uses this subject as the context, takes the principle of the sustaining use of water, from the relationship among the water resource,social economy and ecologic environment, to analyze the water supply and demand in different years in Dunhuang city and based on these to establish the integrative evaluate model of carrying capacity of water resources; through the analysis to the result of supply and demand and the conclusion of the integrative evaluate, to bring forward the countermeasure for improving the water resources carrying capacity. Can it not only offers the theoretic basis to the governor' decision-making, to realize the reasonable explore and use of water , but also has the significant meanings of boosting the people's consciousness of saving water and of setting up the water saving and environment protecting city.
Dunhuang which surrounded by the desert, locates at the hinterland of the Eurasia, is the typic city of desert oasis;it also has the exiguous rainfall, intense evaporation and the limited water resource that can be used.Recent years, because of the people's intensive exploitation and use to the water resource which surpass the ultimate carrying capacity of the water, leads to a series of problems of water environment.It impacts the sustaining development of the social economy, and also intimidates the security of the cultural heritage and the natural sight, such as the Moon Lake and the Mogao Grottoes.
Based on the analysis of the condition and character of water resource in Dunhuang, the paper use the way of general trend forecast to speculate the supply and demand of water resource and to do the balanceable analysis of the 2005, 2010 and 2020. The result reveals: if don't consider of the water indraught, the supply and demand of water resource is diverse of the shortage of water in all of years, and the shortage is main in the need of ecologic environment, so the quality of ecologic environment will be deteriorate slowly; contrarily, if consider of the water indraught, the supply and demand of water resource can be balance, and the ecologic environment can be improve and resume.
On the basis of the general forecast, this paper combines the research instances about foreign and national water resource carrying capacity, to select 8 estimate factors which can indicate the water resource carrying capacity in Dunhuang.through the means that combine the expert conclusion with the calculation of coefficient of grey relativity, use these factors to establish the complex evaluate model of multi-objiective decision-making ideal interval model (MODMIIM).Then, contacts the fact of Dunhuang and studies out three scenes of the use of water resource, substitutes the indicate factors in different scenes into MODMIIM to estimate and analyze the water resources carrying capacity of Dunhuang in 2005, 2010 and 2020. The evaluate result shows that in Dunhuang water resources carrying capacity all is the third grade(III), and the capacity is weak in different years, but the capacity could been improved by water saving, waste water reuse and water indraught;especially, after the water indraught, the capacity can be changed from weak(III grade) to common (II grade). The conclusion is consistent with the general balance analysis of supply and demand, and also accord to the subjective cognition of people. It proved that the model has the high credit ,So it can reflect the water resource carrying capacity of Dunhuang, actually and effectively.
Eventually, based on the conclusion of integrative evaluation, to bring forward some pertinent and manipulative countermeasures about improving the water carrying capacity of Dunhuang, to ensure the sustaining exploitation and use of water resource in future economic development in Dunhuang, to realize the mutual harmony between water resource, social economy and ecologic environment, in order to create a benign condition to the modern tour city, which is the city of the environmental amity and resource saving.
敦煌市地处欧亚大陆腹地,四周又被沙漠戈壁所包围,是典型的“沙漠绿洲”型城市,降雨稀少、蒸发强烈、可利用水资源量极其有限。近年来,因人们对水资源的高强度开采利用,超越了其最大可承载能力,导致了一系列的水环境问题凸现,严重影响到社会经济的可持续发展,也使得享有盛名的莫高窟、月牙泉等文化遗产和自然奇观的安全与长存受到威胁。
本文在深入分析敦煌水资源状况及特征的基础上,采用常规趋势预测方法对敦煌市现状2005年、规划2010、2020年的水资源供需作了预测与平衡分析。其结果为:若不考虑外流域调水,则水资源的供需关系均为不同程度的缺水,且所缺水资源量主要是生态环境的需水量得不到满足,生态环境质量不能维持现状,还会继续缓慢恶化;如考虑外流域调水入境后,则水资源供需可达平衡状态,生态环境质量将会不断改善与恢复。
在常规预测的基础上,结合国内外水资源承载能力研究进展情况,通过专家结论和灰色关联系数计算相结合的方法筛选出了能充分表征敦煌市水资源承载能力的8项评价因子,利用筛选因子建立了多目标决策-理想区间(MODMIIM)综合评价模型。然后再结合敦煌市实际,拟定了三种不同的水资源开发利用情景,将不同情境方案下的指标因子代入MODMIIM,进行对2005、2010和2020年的水资源承载能力综合分析与评价。评价结果显示:敦煌市不同水平年的水资源承载能力均表现为Ⅲ级,较弱的承载状态,但通过节水、废水回用、外流域调水等措施可使其承载能力逐渐提高,尤其是在实施调水入境后,水资源承载能力可由较弱(Ⅲ级)变为一般(Ⅱ级)状态。这些均与常规供需平衡分析结果相一致,也和人们的主观定性认识相符合,证明所建评价模型可信度较高,能够真实有效的反映出敦煌市水资源承载能力的状况。
最后,在综合评价结论的基础上提出了一些针对性强、可操作高的提高敦煌市水资源承载能力的措施,以保证敦煌市未来社会经济发展中对水资源的可持续开发与利用,实现水资源、社会经济、生态环境之间的相互和谐,为发展环境友好型、资源节约型的现代化旅游城市创造良好条件。
Water is the one of the basic resources which relates to the national economy and the people's livelihood and the ecologic balance. At present, the lack of the water resource becomes the rife problem to the human society, how to resolve the mutual relationship among the shortage of water, society economic development and the ecologic balance are the hotspot of people focus on and scientific research.The paper uses this subject as the context, takes the principle of the sustaining use of water, from the relationship among the water resource,social economy and ecologic environment, to analyze the water supply and demand in different years in Dunhuang city and based on these to establish the integrative evaluate model of carrying capacity of water resources; through the analysis to the result of supply and demand and the conclusion of the integrative evaluate, to bring forward the countermeasure for improving the water resources carrying capacity. Can it not only offers the theoretic basis to the governor' decision-making, to realize the reasonable explore and use of water , but also has the significant meanings of boosting the people's consciousness of saving water and of setting up the water saving and environment protecting city.
Dunhuang which surrounded by the desert, locates at the hinterland of the Eurasia, is the typic city of desert oasis;it also has the exiguous rainfall, intense evaporation and the limited water resource that can be used.Recent years, because of the people's intensive exploitation and use to the water resource which surpass the ultimate carrying capacity of the water, leads to a series of problems of water environment.It impacts the sustaining development of the social economy, and also intimidates the security of the cultural heritage and the natural sight, such as the Moon Lake and the Mogao Grottoes.
Based on the analysis of the condition and character of water resource in Dunhuang, the paper use the way of general trend forecast to speculate the supply and demand of water resource and to do the balanceable analysis of the 2005, 2010 and 2020. The result reveals: if don't consider of the water indraught, the supply and demand of water resource is diverse of the shortage of water in all of years, and the shortage is main in the need of ecologic environment, so the quality of ecologic environment will be deteriorate slowly; contrarily, if consider of the water indraught, the supply and demand of water resource can be balance, and the ecologic environment can be improve and resume.
On the basis of the general forecast, this paper combines the research instances about foreign and national water resource carrying capacity, to select 8 estimate factors which can indicate the water resource carrying capacity in Dunhuang.through the means that combine the expert conclusion with the calculation of coefficient of grey relativity, use these factors to establish the complex evaluate model of multi-objiective decision-making ideal interval model (MODMIIM).Then, contacts the fact of Dunhuang and studies out three scenes of the use of water resource, substitutes the indicate factors in different scenes into MODMIIM to estimate and analyze the water resources carrying capacity of Dunhuang in 2005, 2010 and 2020. The evaluate result shows that in Dunhuang water resources carrying capacity all is the third grade(III), and the capacity is weak in different years, but the capacity could been improved by water saving, waste water reuse and water indraught;especially, after the water indraught, the capacity can be changed from weak(III grade) to common (II grade). The conclusion is consistent with the general balance analysis of supply and demand, and also accord to the subjective cognition of people. It proved that the model has the high credit ,So it can reflect the water resource carrying capacity of Dunhuang, actually and effectively.
Eventually, based on the conclusion of integrative evaluation, to bring forward some pertinent and manipulative countermeasures about improving the water carrying capacity of Dunhuang, to ensure the sustaining exploitation and use of water resource in future economic development in Dunhuang, to realize the mutual harmony between water resource, social economy and ecologic environment, in order to create a benign condition to the modern tour city, which is the city of the environmental amity and resource saving.
引文
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