虚拟货币运行的系统动力学研究
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摘要
20世纪90年代以来,虚拟货币从出现到快速发展引起了网络运营商和学术界的广泛关注,并且随着虚拟货币影响的不断增大,虚拟货币的发展也受到了监管部门的重视。我国的虚拟货币也进入了突飞猛进发展的阶段,几乎每个网络运营商、游戏运营商都在其经营的虚拟社区和网络游戏中发行各种各样的虚拟货币,虚拟货币在各大论坛、网络游戏、网络文学、网络购物、信息检索、网络音乐等网络应用领域得到广泛使用。
虚拟货币满足了人们在网络交易过程中方便快捷的进行小额支付的需求,也满足了人们在虚拟世界中进行交易的体验,使人们在现实世界中的一些感受在虚拟世界中同样能够得到体验。而近年来大型多人在线角色扮演游戏盛行,人们对这些原本只存在于虚拟世界中的虚拟货币的现实需求以及脱离了虚拟货币发行主体的企业基于不同目的的互利需求等,都扩大了虚拟货币的交易领域,使得虚拟货币在虚拟世界之外也有了交易需求,虚拟货币开始渗入现实世界,对现实社会和实体经济产生影响。因此,对虚拟货币的研究也逐渐深入到社会、经济金融、法律、信息以及流通体制等领域。
本文通过深入研究虚拟货币运行中涉及的各种交易平台和交易主体,分析对虚拟货币运行产生影响的各种因素,从整体的角度考虑虚拟货币运行过程中可能产生的问题以及出现通货膨胀的可能情况,再通过系统动力学建模的方法对虚拟货币的运行过程进行建模研究,思考对虚拟货币运行监管的角度和方法,降低虚拟货币对现实社会的不良影响。
本研究主要包括以下几个部分：首先对虚拟货币的发展现状、虚拟货币的概念以及目前国内外对于虚拟货币研究的相关文献进行总结和综述；其次在文献研究的基础上,对虚拟货币运行中涉及到的平台和主体进行了界定,并对虚拟货币在不同运行平台中的交易过程进行详细分析；第三,在现实货币理论研究的基础上,针对虚拟货币的特性对虚拟货币运行中的供求均衡进行比较静态分析,同时对低能虚拟货币和高能虚拟货币分别可能引发的在虚拟世界和现实世界中的通货膨胀问题进行研究；最后,在上述研究的基础上,引入系统动力学的建模思想来对虚拟货币的运行过程进行建模分析,并对虚拟货币的运行过程进行仿真研究来验证虚拟货币运行中涉及到的主体之间的影响关系。
本文的研究工作,首先以大量的文献收集和文献研究为基础,学习虚拟货币研究的相关文献中的概念、理论和研究方法,在结合虚拟货币运行中出现的实际问题,提出本研究的研究问题。在明确研究的问题后,对文献进一步深入研究以确定本文的主要内容、涉及的概念以及研究的相关变量主体。在对虚拟货币运行整体分析的基础上加上系统动力学的研究方法建立起虚拟货币运行的研究框架,通过调研和访谈对虚拟货币运行的整体框架进行修正,最后通过系统动力学的模拟仿真验证虚拟货币运行中涉及的变量主体间的影响关系,得出对不同种类的虚拟货币进行不同监管控制的结论。
The appearance and rapid development of virtual money has caused widespread concern since1990s, with the increasing influence of virtual currency, the government also pay attention to the development of virtual money. In China, virtual money has already entered the stage of rapid development, almost every network operators and game operators have its virtual money in their virtual communities and online games. Virtual money has applied in the major forums, online games, network literatures, online shopping, information retrieval, online music, etc.
The emergence of virtual money meets the frequent micro-payment needs of people in the network transactions, and has also taken the trading experience in the virtual world. The feelings in real word can also been got in the virtual world in this condition. In recent years, with the popularity of massively multiplayer online role-playing games and the special demand of real enterprises, the trade of virtual money has expanded, and the virtual money is no longer just the "money" in virtual world. Virtual money has got in to the real world, and has impact on society and the real economy. Therefore, the research of virtual money has been taken in the areas of the sociology, economics and finance, legal field, information field and the circulation system.
This study explores the trading platform and trading subjects of virtual money circulation and analyzes the variety influence factors, entirely considers the problems of virtual money circulation and the possibility of inflation, and then has research on the virtual money circulation model through the system dynamics modeling methods, thinking about the supervision of virtual money circulation, to reduce the adverse effects of virtual money.
This study is organized as follows:(ⅰ) to introduce the development status of virtual money, the concept of virtual money and summarize the literature of virtual money research;(ⅱ) to define the different virtual money trading platform and the subject, analyze the process of trading in different platforms;(ⅲ) to analyze the balance of supply and demand by the comparative static analysis according to the characteristics of virtual money, and research on the inflation problems caused by virtual money;(iv) to set up the virtual money circulation model and run the circulation model to verify the relationships of factors in the virtual money circulation.
The survey research method of this study is based on a large amount of literature collection and research, the conception of virtual money, the theories and research methods. Identify the research questions according to the real problems of virtual money circulation. To identify the main contents of this paper, the involved conception and relevant variables on the basis of further study of the literature. Set up the system dynamics research model of virtual money circulation; amend the framework of virtual money circulation according to the research and interviews; finally, have the regulation conclusions to different kinds of virtual money through the system dynamics simulation.
虚拟货币满足了人们在网络交易过程中方便快捷的进行小额支付的需求,也满足了人们在虚拟世界中进行交易的体验,使人们在现实世界中的一些感受在虚拟世界中同样能够得到体验。而近年来大型多人在线角色扮演游戏盛行,人们对这些原本只存在于虚拟世界中的虚拟货币的现实需求以及脱离了虚拟货币发行主体的企业基于不同目的的互利需求等,都扩大了虚拟货币的交易领域,使得虚拟货币在虚拟世界之外也有了交易需求,虚拟货币开始渗入现实世界,对现实社会和实体经济产生影响。因此,对虚拟货币的研究也逐渐深入到社会、经济金融、法律、信息以及流通体制等领域。
本文通过深入研究虚拟货币运行中涉及的各种交易平台和交易主体,分析对虚拟货币运行产生影响的各种因素,从整体的角度考虑虚拟货币运行过程中可能产生的问题以及出现通货膨胀的可能情况,再通过系统动力学建模的方法对虚拟货币的运行过程进行建模研究,思考对虚拟货币运行监管的角度和方法,降低虚拟货币对现实社会的不良影响。
本研究主要包括以下几个部分：首先对虚拟货币的发展现状、虚拟货币的概念以及目前国内外对于虚拟货币研究的相关文献进行总结和综述；其次在文献研究的基础上,对虚拟货币运行中涉及到的平台和主体进行了界定,并对虚拟货币在不同运行平台中的交易过程进行详细分析；第三,在现实货币理论研究的基础上,针对虚拟货币的特性对虚拟货币运行中的供求均衡进行比较静态分析,同时对低能虚拟货币和高能虚拟货币分别可能引发的在虚拟世界和现实世界中的通货膨胀问题进行研究；最后,在上述研究的基础上,引入系统动力学的建模思想来对虚拟货币的运行过程进行建模分析,并对虚拟货币的运行过程进行仿真研究来验证虚拟货币运行中涉及到的主体之间的影响关系。
本文的研究工作,首先以大量的文献收集和文献研究为基础,学习虚拟货币研究的相关文献中的概念、理论和研究方法,在结合虚拟货币运行中出现的实际问题,提出本研究的研究问题。在明确研究的问题后,对文献进一步深入研究以确定本文的主要内容、涉及的概念以及研究的相关变量主体。在对虚拟货币运行整体分析的基础上加上系统动力学的研究方法建立起虚拟货币运行的研究框架,通过调研和访谈对虚拟货币运行的整体框架进行修正,最后通过系统动力学的模拟仿真验证虚拟货币运行中涉及的变量主体间的影响关系,得出对不同种类的虚拟货币进行不同监管控制的结论。
The appearance and rapid development of virtual money has caused widespread concern since1990s, with the increasing influence of virtual currency, the government also pay attention to the development of virtual money. In China, virtual money has already entered the stage of rapid development, almost every network operators and game operators have its virtual money in their virtual communities and online games. Virtual money has applied in the major forums, online games, network literatures, online shopping, information retrieval, online music, etc.
The emergence of virtual money meets the frequent micro-payment needs of people in the network transactions, and has also taken the trading experience in the virtual world. The feelings in real word can also been got in the virtual world in this condition. In recent years, with the popularity of massively multiplayer online role-playing games and the special demand of real enterprises, the trade of virtual money has expanded, and the virtual money is no longer just the "money" in virtual world. Virtual money has got in to the real world, and has impact on society and the real economy. Therefore, the research of virtual money has been taken in the areas of the sociology, economics and finance, legal field, information field and the circulation system.
This study explores the trading platform and trading subjects of virtual money circulation and analyzes the variety influence factors, entirely considers the problems of virtual money circulation and the possibility of inflation, and then has research on the virtual money circulation model through the system dynamics modeling methods, thinking about the supervision of virtual money circulation, to reduce the adverse effects of virtual money.
This study is organized as follows:(ⅰ) to introduce the development status of virtual money, the concept of virtual money and summarize the literature of virtual money research;(ⅱ) to define the different virtual money trading platform and the subject, analyze the process of trading in different platforms;(ⅲ) to analyze the balance of supply and demand by the comparative static analysis according to the characteristics of virtual money, and research on the inflation problems caused by virtual money;(iv) to set up the virtual money circulation model and run the circulation model to verify the relationships of factors in the virtual money circulation.
The survey research method of this study is based on a large amount of literature collection and research, the conception of virtual money, the theories and research methods. Identify the research questions according to the real problems of virtual money circulation. To identify the main contents of this paper, the involved conception and relevant variables on the basis of further study of the literature. Set up the system dynamics research model of virtual money circulation; amend the framework of virtual money circulation according to the research and interviews; finally, have the regulation conclusions to different kinds of virtual money through the system dynamics simulation.
引文
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