我国国际储备结构优化研究
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摘要
我国国际储备增长迅速,其中主要是来自外汇储备的增长,截止2008年9月底,我国外汇储备已达1.91万亿美元,不出意料,中国外汇储备将在2009年第一季度突破2万亿大关。面对巨额的国际储备,对我国国际储备结构管理进行研究,以有效管理如此庞大的国际储备,提高我国整个国际储备的安全性,同时又要有一定的流动性和较高的收益性,有着非常重要的理论意义和现实意义。国际储备结构一般来说有两个方面的含义,一方面的含义是指外汇储备币种结构,简言之,就是以何种货币持有储备、每种货币各持有多少。另一方面的含义是指资产结构,简言之,就是以何种资产形式持有储备、每种资产形式各持有多少。本文分别从这两方面对国际储备结构问题进行探讨。
本文共分六章,各章的主要内容如下:
第一章是绪论,简要介绍选题背景和研究意义、相关文献综述以及研究方法。
关于外汇储备币种结构选择的理论主要有三个:资产组合理论、海勒-奈特模型和杜利模型。资产组合理论是从收益-风险角度来考察储备结构的优化问题,也就是求出在风险相等的条件下收益最高的资产组合,或者是求出在收益相等的条件下风险最小的资产组合。
海勒-奈特模型是从汇率安排和贸易收支结构角度来考察储备结构问题。海勒-奈特模型一方面肯定了资产组合模型的储备货币分散化观点;另一方面,该模型还认为一国持有储备货币的币种应与其干预外汇市场所需的干预货币保持一致。
杜利模型是在海勒-奈特模型的基础上加入了外债因素,从汇率安排、贸易收支结构和对外债务的角度来考察储备结构问题。此理论认为在决定储备币种分配时,交易成本的影响要远远大于对风险和收益的考虑。对发展中国家而言,支付外债是外汇储备的主要功能之一,因此外债结构是影响储备币种分配的重要因素。
对国际储备的资产结构方面研究的主流思想是把国际储备视作一种“资产”,可以通过资产配置的途径转化为其他形式的实物资产或金融资产。同时这些研究从理论上深入探讨了国际储备资产的管理结构和管理思想,但是对于管理的模式与内容的分析和描述过于理论化,因此缺乏对实际操作的指导意义。
第二章是对国际储备的概述。主要介绍什么是国际储备、国际储备的来源和作用,以及外汇储备币种选择的原则和国际储备资产结构选择的原则。国际储备的作用,从一国角度看主要有三个方面:
(一)清算国际收支差额,维持对外支付能力;
(二)干预外汇市场、支持本国货币汇率稳定;
(三)信用保证;
一个合理的国际储备结构必须要使国际储备能有效地发挥以上的作用。外汇储备币种的选择应遵循的主要原则是:第一,经济实力原则。储备货币发行国的经济实力越强,各国对该国货币的信心就越强,在国际交易中普遍认可度和可接受程度就越高,因此可作为储备货币使用。第二,币值稳定原则。币值稳定是一种货币作为交易媒介、充当支付手段、发挥价值储存功能的基础。一种货币的币值越稳定,持有这种货币就越能发挥外汇储备的作用。第三,贸易匹配原则。外汇储备是国际收支的准备金,在确定一国储备的币种结构时,应尽可能的根据本国对外经济贸易的地区结构及其金融支付对储备货币的需求,做出与之相匹配的选择。第四,债务匹配原则。清偿对外债务是外汇储备的主要作用之一,特别是对于发展中国家,外汇储备中很大的一部分是用于支付对外债务。所以外汇储备的币种结构要与债务结构相匹配,即每种储备货币在外汇储备中所占的比例应该与外债中用该种货币支付的外债额的比例相匹配。第五,干预匹配原则。现在世界上没有哪个国家实行完全的浮动汇率制,每个国家都需要对外汇市场进行干预,以维持汇率在目标水平。当一国实行盯住某国货币或一篮子货币时,为了干预的需要,该国就要持有足够的所盯住的货币或者一篮子货币,所以该国的外汇储备币种结构应与所需的干预货币匹配。
国际储备资产结构的选择应遵循的主要原则是:在保证储备资产的安全性、流动性的前提下兼顾盈利性。
第三章是对我国国际储备结构现状的分析。在本章中先介绍了全球国际储备结构的变化与分析,然后再从外汇储备币种结构和国际储备资产结构这两方面分别对我国国际储备结构的现状进行叙述,并分析了我国国际储备在这两方面存在的问题。
我国外汇储备在币种结构方面存在的问题是:
一.以美元持有的储备资产的比例过高而带来的汇率风险。
二.与我国的贸易结构不协调。
三.与我国汇率制度安排的不协调。
在国际储备资产结构方面存在的问题是:
一.外汇期限错配带来国内金融市场的流动性风险。
二.资产配置单一带来的低收益、高机会成本。
第四章是我国外汇储备币种结构优化分析。首先要确定储备货币的种类。综合考虑外汇储备币种结构选择的五个原则确定我国储备货币为美元,日元,欧元,英镑。然后要确定各储备货币的合理权重问题。分别从对外汇储备币种结构有较大影响的收益-风险因素、对外贸易结构因素、外债结构因素和汇率制度安排因素考虑储备币种结构的优化选择。其中运用资产组合模型从收益-风险因素角度做了实证分析,然后借鉴海勒一奈特模型和杜利模型的思想分别考察了外贸结构等因素对币种结构选择的影响,最后给出一个我国外汇储备币种结构的建议性结论。
我国目前的币种状况大致为:美元60%-70%;日元10%-15%;欧元20%-25%;英镑3%-5%;其他1%-5%。调整为美元占55%-60%;日元占10%-15%;欧元占25%-30%;英镑占3%-5%;其他1%-5%。
其中美元比例下调,欧元比例上调。
几点说明:
①外汇储备不同于一般的纯粹以追求利润最大化为目标的商业性投资资产,其投资行为会受到各种限制。一国在优化其储备货币的币种结构时正确的做法是在保证外汇储备实现其支付国际收支差额和干预外汇市场的职能的基础上追求收益最大、风险最小。所以在确定储备货币的币种结构时除了从收益-风险角度来考察外,还必须要综合考虑一国对外贸易结构、外债结构等重要因素的影响。
②下调美元的比例是因为美元持续贬值、风险增大。下调美元可以增加储备的收益,减小风险。美元占储备的55%-60%已经可以保证外贸、外债和央行干预外汇市场对美元储备的需求。
③适当上调欧元储备资产的比例,除了欧元相对美元升值外,还考虑到欧元在国际货币体系中的地位上升和中欧之间经贸关系的加强,欧盟现在已经是我国的第一大贸易伙伴。
④在调整币种结构时,最好避免采用以一种货币资产交换为另一种货币资产的方法,因为这种方法交易成本太高,而且容易引起国际外汇市场的动荡。比较好的方法是将新增加的外汇储备按一定的比例分布在相应资产上,使储备的币种结构逐渐向目标结构调整
⑤对币种结构的调整涉及诸多方面的因素,同时还要考虑国外的反应,短期内激进地调整会引发激烈的国际反应,进而影响国际国内经济的稳定。央行在调整储备币种结构时也必然是非常谨慎的,必须经过严格的论证及决策,才能开展实施。所以我国外汇储备币种结构的调整必然是一个渐进的,缓慢的过程。
第五章是我国国际储备资产结构的优化分析。分别分析了国际储备资产结构选择的基本原则和国际储备资产结构优化调整的一般性原则。然后论述了国际储备资产结构优化调整的方式。
国际储备资产结构选择的基本原则为安全性、流动性和盈利性,然后采用分层管理方法,将储备资产按此三性的要求划分为“一级储备”、“二级储备”、“三级储备”几个层次。
我国国际储备资产结构优化调整的一般性原则是:国际储备资产首先要考虑投资于高流动低风险的金融资产,以满足国家清算国际收支差额和干预外汇市场的需要。然后,在保证国际储备整体安全性和流动性充足的前提下,将部分储备投资于高收益的金融资产和具有战略意义的战略性资源储备。
国际储备资产结构优化调整的方式为:
(1)增加对高信用等级投资工具的投资,适当减少对美国国债的持有。
(2)增加对海外股权投资。
(3)增加黄金储备的持有比例。
研究方法和创新
本文综合运用国际金融学、投资学、货币银行学以及统计学等学科的理论,分别从外汇储备的币种结构和国际储备的资产结构两方面来分析我国国际储备结构的优化问题。在论述过程中结合大量的统计数据,通过建立数学模型来对我国国际储备结构问题进行详尽的研究。
在论述过程中采用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法。论文对我国国际储备的币种结构和资产结构的选择原则等方面的问题作了规范性研究;对币种结构的优化运用资产组合理论作了实证分析。
在创新方面,本文提出了与国内主流研究成果不同的建议性意见,在新数据的基础上针对新的问题进行研究并得出综合结论。
China's foreign exchange reserves which reached 1,910,000,000,000 U.S. dollars by the end of September 2008 increased rapidly. Not surprisingly, China's foreign exchange reserves will exceed 2 trillion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2009. Facing the huge international reserves, there is a very important theoretical and practical significance to research how to manage China's international reserves structure effectively to improve the security of foreign exchange reserves as a whole, and have a certain degree of liquidity and higher profitability at the same time. In general, the structure of international reserves has two aspects of the meaning: on one hand, it refers to the currency composition; on the other hand, it refers to the asset structure of international reserves. In this paper, the international reserves structure is discussed from these two aspects.
This article is divided into six chapters.
The first chapter is the introduction, illustrating the background and the significance of research、relevant literature review and research methods briefly.
About the choice of foreign exchange reserve currency structure, there are three main theories: The Portfolio Theory、the model of Heller-Knight and the model of Dooley. The Portfolio theory analyzes the optimization of the foreign reserves structure from the view of risk-perspective.
The model of Heller-Knight analyzes the foreign reserves structure from the view of the exchange rate system and the structure of trade.
The model of Dooley, on the basis of the model of Heller-Knight, analyzes the structure of reserves from the view of the exchange rate system, the structure of trade and the foreign debt. This theory suggests that in deciding the allocation of currency reserves, the impact of transaction costs is much greater than the impact of risk and profit.
The mainstream method on the research of the assets structure is to treat the foreign exchange reserves as a kind of "assets", which can transform into other forms of physical assets or financial assets by the way of asset allocation.
The second chapter is an overview of the international reserves. The primary coverage is the introduction of the meaning, source and role of the international reserves, and the principle in choosing the structure of foreign exchange reserves as well as the structure of the reserve assets.
The role of foreign exchange reserves, from the perspective of a country's ,is divided into three areas:
(1)Liquidating the international balance of payments, maintaining the external payments capabilities.
(2) Intervening in the foreign exchange market, maintaining the stability of national currency exchange rate.
(3) Credit security
A reasonable currency composition of foreign reserves must be able to bring foreign reserves into a more effective role.
The choice of Foreign exchange reserve currency should follow three principles: first, the principle of economic strength; second, the principle of the stability of the currency; third, the principle of matching transactions. According to the above principles, our reserve currency is intended to be U.S. dollars, Japanese yen, the euro, pound sterling.
The third chapter is the analysis of current situation of our country's international reserves structure. In this chapter the world's foreign exchange reserves is introduced and changes structure is analyzed firstly. Then the current situation of the structure of China's foreign exchange reserves is discussed from the currency structure and asset structure respectively, and problems in China's foreign exchange reserves are analyzed. .
The fourth chapter is the optimization analysis of China's currency composition of foreign reserves. The portfolio theory is used to analyze the portfolio-risk factors. And then lessons from the model of Heller-Knight are drawn, and the model of Dooley is used to study foreign trade structure. In the end, a conclusion is given on the currency composition of china’s foreign reserves.
The current situation of China's currency structure is as following: dollar 60% -70%; yen 10% -15%; euro 20% -25%; pounds 3% -5%; others 1% -5%. Dollars after adjusted: 55% -60%; yen accounted for 10% -15%; the euro accounted for 25% -30%; pounds 3% -5%; others 1% -5%.
The principle of revolution is to lower the proportion of U.S. dollar, increasing the proportion of the euro.
Chapter 5 is about the analysis of optimizing the assets structure of China's international reserves. We analyze the fundamental principles in choosing the assets structure and in optimizing the assets structure separately. And then discussion of the ways of optimizing the assets structure of the foreign currency reserve.
The basic principles in choosing the assets structure of international reserves reserve is safety, liquidity and profitability.
The general principle in optimizing the assets structure of China's international reserves is: first of all, considering to invest the foreign currency reserve assets in highly liquid, low-risk financial assets to meet the liquidation of the national balance of payments and foreign exchange market intervention; then, under the premise of ensuring the safety and adequate liquidity, some of the reserves should be invested in high-yield financial assets and strategic resources reserves.
The way of optimizing the assets structure of the foreign currency reserve are the following:
(1)to increase the investment on high credit rating investment vehicles, to reduce the national debt held by the United States
(2) to increase its overseas equity investment
(3) to increase the proportion of gold reserve
本文共分六章,各章的主要内容如下:
第一章是绪论,简要介绍选题背景和研究意义、相关文献综述以及研究方法。
关于外汇储备币种结构选择的理论主要有三个:资产组合理论、海勒-奈特模型和杜利模型。资产组合理论是从收益-风险角度来考察储备结构的优化问题,也就是求出在风险相等的条件下收益最高的资产组合,或者是求出在收益相等的条件下风险最小的资产组合。
海勒-奈特模型是从汇率安排和贸易收支结构角度来考察储备结构问题。海勒-奈特模型一方面肯定了资产组合模型的储备货币分散化观点;另一方面,该模型还认为一国持有储备货币的币种应与其干预外汇市场所需的干预货币保持一致。
杜利模型是在海勒-奈特模型的基础上加入了外债因素,从汇率安排、贸易收支结构和对外债务的角度来考察储备结构问题。此理论认为在决定储备币种分配时,交易成本的影响要远远大于对风险和收益的考虑。对发展中国家而言,支付外债是外汇储备的主要功能之一,因此外债结构是影响储备币种分配的重要因素。
对国际储备的资产结构方面研究的主流思想是把国际储备视作一种“资产”,可以通过资产配置的途径转化为其他形式的实物资产或金融资产。同时这些研究从理论上深入探讨了国际储备资产的管理结构和管理思想,但是对于管理的模式与内容的分析和描述过于理论化,因此缺乏对实际操作的指导意义。
第二章是对国际储备的概述。主要介绍什么是国际储备、国际储备的来源和作用,以及外汇储备币种选择的原则和国际储备资产结构选择的原则。国际储备的作用,从一国角度看主要有三个方面:
(一)清算国际收支差额,维持对外支付能力;
(二)干预外汇市场、支持本国货币汇率稳定;
(三)信用保证;
一个合理的国际储备结构必须要使国际储备能有效地发挥以上的作用。外汇储备币种的选择应遵循的主要原则是:第一,经济实力原则。储备货币发行国的经济实力越强,各国对该国货币的信心就越强,在国际交易中普遍认可度和可接受程度就越高,因此可作为储备货币使用。第二,币值稳定原则。币值稳定是一种货币作为交易媒介、充当支付手段、发挥价值储存功能的基础。一种货币的币值越稳定,持有这种货币就越能发挥外汇储备的作用。第三,贸易匹配原则。外汇储备是国际收支的准备金,在确定一国储备的币种结构时,应尽可能的根据本国对外经济贸易的地区结构及其金融支付对储备货币的需求,做出与之相匹配的选择。第四,债务匹配原则。清偿对外债务是外汇储备的主要作用之一,特别是对于发展中国家,外汇储备中很大的一部分是用于支付对外债务。所以外汇储备的币种结构要与债务结构相匹配,即每种储备货币在外汇储备中所占的比例应该与外债中用该种货币支付的外债额的比例相匹配。第五,干预匹配原则。现在世界上没有哪个国家实行完全的浮动汇率制,每个国家都需要对外汇市场进行干预,以维持汇率在目标水平。当一国实行盯住某国货币或一篮子货币时,为了干预的需要,该国就要持有足够的所盯住的货币或者一篮子货币,所以该国的外汇储备币种结构应与所需的干预货币匹配。
国际储备资产结构的选择应遵循的主要原则是:在保证储备资产的安全性、流动性的前提下兼顾盈利性。
第三章是对我国国际储备结构现状的分析。在本章中先介绍了全球国际储备结构的变化与分析,然后再从外汇储备币种结构和国际储备资产结构这两方面分别对我国国际储备结构的现状进行叙述,并分析了我国国际储备在这两方面存在的问题。
我国外汇储备在币种结构方面存在的问题是:
一.以美元持有的储备资产的比例过高而带来的汇率风险。
二.与我国的贸易结构不协调。
三.与我国汇率制度安排的不协调。
在国际储备资产结构方面存在的问题是:
一.外汇期限错配带来国内金融市场的流动性风险。
二.资产配置单一带来的低收益、高机会成本。
第四章是我国外汇储备币种结构优化分析。首先要确定储备货币的种类。综合考虑外汇储备币种结构选择的五个原则确定我国储备货币为美元,日元,欧元,英镑。然后要确定各储备货币的合理权重问题。分别从对外汇储备币种结构有较大影响的收益-风险因素、对外贸易结构因素、外债结构因素和汇率制度安排因素考虑储备币种结构的优化选择。其中运用资产组合模型从收益-风险因素角度做了实证分析,然后借鉴海勒一奈特模型和杜利模型的思想分别考察了外贸结构等因素对币种结构选择的影响,最后给出一个我国外汇储备币种结构的建议性结论。
我国目前的币种状况大致为:美元60%-70%;日元10%-15%;欧元20%-25%;英镑3%-5%;其他1%-5%。调整为美元占55%-60%;日元占10%-15%;欧元占25%-30%;英镑占3%-5%;其他1%-5%。
其中美元比例下调,欧元比例上调。
几点说明:
①外汇储备不同于一般的纯粹以追求利润最大化为目标的商业性投资资产,其投资行为会受到各种限制。一国在优化其储备货币的币种结构时正确的做法是在保证外汇储备实现其支付国际收支差额和干预外汇市场的职能的基础上追求收益最大、风险最小。所以在确定储备货币的币种结构时除了从收益-风险角度来考察外,还必须要综合考虑一国对外贸易结构、外债结构等重要因素的影响。
②下调美元的比例是因为美元持续贬值、风险增大。下调美元可以增加储备的收益,减小风险。美元占储备的55%-60%已经可以保证外贸、外债和央行干预外汇市场对美元储备的需求。
③适当上调欧元储备资产的比例,除了欧元相对美元升值外,还考虑到欧元在国际货币体系中的地位上升和中欧之间经贸关系的加强,欧盟现在已经是我国的第一大贸易伙伴。
④在调整币种结构时,最好避免采用以一种货币资产交换为另一种货币资产的方法,因为这种方法交易成本太高,而且容易引起国际外汇市场的动荡。比较好的方法是将新增加的外汇储备按一定的比例分布在相应资产上,使储备的币种结构逐渐向目标结构调整
⑤对币种结构的调整涉及诸多方面的因素,同时还要考虑国外的反应,短期内激进地调整会引发激烈的国际反应,进而影响国际国内经济的稳定。央行在调整储备币种结构时也必然是非常谨慎的,必须经过严格的论证及决策,才能开展实施。所以我国外汇储备币种结构的调整必然是一个渐进的,缓慢的过程。
第五章是我国国际储备资产结构的优化分析。分别分析了国际储备资产结构选择的基本原则和国际储备资产结构优化调整的一般性原则。然后论述了国际储备资产结构优化调整的方式。
国际储备资产结构选择的基本原则为安全性、流动性和盈利性,然后采用分层管理方法,将储备资产按此三性的要求划分为“一级储备”、“二级储备”、“三级储备”几个层次。
我国国际储备资产结构优化调整的一般性原则是:国际储备资产首先要考虑投资于高流动低风险的金融资产,以满足国家清算国际收支差额和干预外汇市场的需要。然后,在保证国际储备整体安全性和流动性充足的前提下,将部分储备投资于高收益的金融资产和具有战略意义的战略性资源储备。
国际储备资产结构优化调整的方式为:
(1)增加对高信用等级投资工具的投资,适当减少对美国国债的持有。
(2)增加对海外股权投资。
(3)增加黄金储备的持有比例。
研究方法和创新
本文综合运用国际金融学、投资学、货币银行学以及统计学等学科的理论,分别从外汇储备的币种结构和国际储备的资产结构两方面来分析我国国际储备结构的优化问题。在论述过程中结合大量的统计数据,通过建立数学模型来对我国国际储备结构问题进行详尽的研究。
在论述过程中采用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法。论文对我国国际储备的币种结构和资产结构的选择原则等方面的问题作了规范性研究;对币种结构的优化运用资产组合理论作了实证分析。
在创新方面,本文提出了与国内主流研究成果不同的建议性意见,在新数据的基础上针对新的问题进行研究并得出综合结论。
China's foreign exchange reserves which reached 1,910,000,000,000 U.S. dollars by the end of September 2008 increased rapidly. Not surprisingly, China's foreign exchange reserves will exceed 2 trillion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2009. Facing the huge international reserves, there is a very important theoretical and practical significance to research how to manage China's international reserves structure effectively to improve the security of foreign exchange reserves as a whole, and have a certain degree of liquidity and higher profitability at the same time. In general, the structure of international reserves has two aspects of the meaning: on one hand, it refers to the currency composition; on the other hand, it refers to the asset structure of international reserves. In this paper, the international reserves structure is discussed from these two aspects.
This article is divided into six chapters.
The first chapter is the introduction, illustrating the background and the significance of research、relevant literature review and research methods briefly.
About the choice of foreign exchange reserve currency structure, there are three main theories: The Portfolio Theory、the model of Heller-Knight and the model of Dooley. The Portfolio theory analyzes the optimization of the foreign reserves structure from the view of risk-perspective.
The model of Heller-Knight analyzes the foreign reserves structure from the view of the exchange rate system and the structure of trade.
The model of Dooley, on the basis of the model of Heller-Knight, analyzes the structure of reserves from the view of the exchange rate system, the structure of trade and the foreign debt. This theory suggests that in deciding the allocation of currency reserves, the impact of transaction costs is much greater than the impact of risk and profit.
The mainstream method on the research of the assets structure is to treat the foreign exchange reserves as a kind of "assets", which can transform into other forms of physical assets or financial assets by the way of asset allocation.
The second chapter is an overview of the international reserves. The primary coverage is the introduction of the meaning, source and role of the international reserves, and the principle in choosing the structure of foreign exchange reserves as well as the structure of the reserve assets.
The role of foreign exchange reserves, from the perspective of a country's ,is divided into three areas:
(1)Liquidating the international balance of payments, maintaining the external payments capabilities.
(2) Intervening in the foreign exchange market, maintaining the stability of national currency exchange rate.
(3) Credit security
A reasonable currency composition of foreign reserves must be able to bring foreign reserves into a more effective role.
The choice of Foreign exchange reserve currency should follow three principles: first, the principle of economic strength; second, the principle of the stability of the currency; third, the principle of matching transactions. According to the above principles, our reserve currency is intended to be U.S. dollars, Japanese yen, the euro, pound sterling.
The third chapter is the analysis of current situation of our country's international reserves structure. In this chapter the world's foreign exchange reserves is introduced and changes structure is analyzed firstly. Then the current situation of the structure of China's foreign exchange reserves is discussed from the currency structure and asset structure respectively, and problems in China's foreign exchange reserves are analyzed. .
The fourth chapter is the optimization analysis of China's currency composition of foreign reserves. The portfolio theory is used to analyze the portfolio-risk factors. And then lessons from the model of Heller-Knight are drawn, and the model of Dooley is used to study foreign trade structure. In the end, a conclusion is given on the currency composition of china’s foreign reserves.
The current situation of China's currency structure is as following: dollar 60% -70%; yen 10% -15%; euro 20% -25%; pounds 3% -5%; others 1% -5%. Dollars after adjusted: 55% -60%; yen accounted for 10% -15%; the euro accounted for 25% -30%; pounds 3% -5%; others 1% -5%.
The principle of revolution is to lower the proportion of U.S. dollar, increasing the proportion of the euro.
Chapter 5 is about the analysis of optimizing the assets structure of China's international reserves. We analyze the fundamental principles in choosing the assets structure and in optimizing the assets structure separately. And then discussion of the ways of optimizing the assets structure of the foreign currency reserve.
The basic principles in choosing the assets structure of international reserves reserve is safety, liquidity and profitability.
The general principle in optimizing the assets structure of China's international reserves is: first of all, considering to invest the foreign currency reserve assets in highly liquid, low-risk financial assets to meet the liquidation of the national balance of payments and foreign exchange market intervention; then, under the premise of ensuring the safety and adequate liquidity, some of the reserves should be invested in high-yield financial assets and strategic resources reserves.
The way of optimizing the assets structure of the foreign currency reserve are the following:
(1)to increase the investment on high credit rating investment vehicles, to reduce the national debt held by the United States
(2) to increase its overseas equity investment
(3) to increase the proportion of gold reserve
引文
a数据来源:美国财政部网站:http://www.ustreas.gov
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[29]张新坡.我国外汇储备的来源结构分析[J].生产力研究,2007.
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[31]郭晓峰.中国外汇结构管理之探讨.甘肃联合大学学报(社会科学版),2006.
[32]William F.Sharpe,Gordon J.Alexander,Jeffery V.Bailey.Investment. [M].清华大学出版社,2001
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[39]Srichander Ramaswany.Reserve currency allocation:an alternative methodology .BIS working papers, N0. 72, 1999.
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[42]Barry Eichengreen.The Euro as a Reserve Currency [J].Journal of the Japanese and international economics,1998.
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[1]何泽荣,周宏元.国际金融原理[M].西南财经大学出版社,2004.
[2]姜波克.国际金融学[M].高等教育出版社,1999.
[3]王江.金融经济学[M].中国人民大学出版社,2006.
[4]王国林.关键货币汇率变动对我国外汇储备规模的影响[J].世界经济与政治论坛. 2005
[5]王国林,牛晓健.外汇储备币种结构分析.上海金融,2006.
[6]金艳平,唐国兴.我国外汇储备币种结构探讨.上海金融,1997.
[7]马之騆.发展中国家国际储备需求研究[M].华东师范大学出版社,1994.
[8]许承明.世界外汇储备结构变化的原因分析[J].世界经济文汇,2001.
[9]宋铁波,陈建国.我国外汇储备币种组合分析[J].南方金融,2001.
[10]朱淑珍.中国外汇储备的投资组合风险与收益分析[J].上海金融,2002.
[11]吴丽华.我国适度外汇储备量的模型与外汇储备管理[J].厦门大学学报,1997.
[12]陈德付,陈鑫云.我国外汇储备的投资组合分析[J].兰台世界,1997.
[13]易江、李楚霖.外汇储备最有组合的方法.预测[J],1997.
[14]李振勤,孙瑜.中国外汇储备的组成与出入[J].凤凰周刊,2000.
[15]腾听,李树民.我国外汇储备结构特征分析[J].商业时代,2005.
[16]者贵昌.中国国际储备的分析与研究[J].国际金融研究,2005.
[17]吴志明.论欧元成真下的我国外汇储备管理新策略[J].财经理论与实践,2000.
[18]韩继云.当前中国外汇储备大幅增长的利弊及对策[J].青海金融,2005.
[19]李成,杜志斌.我国外汇储备币种结构的风险分析[J].新金融,2006.
[20]张文政.许婕颖.试论我国外汇储备币种组合[J].商场现代化,2005.
[21]王红夏.中国外汇储备适度规模与结构研究.对外经济贸易大学,2003.
[22]王年咏.中国外汇储备结构优化的悖论困境[J].新管理,2006.
[23]奚君羊.国际储备的结构管理及我国的选择[J].国际金融研究,1990.
[24]王凌云.外汇储备币种结构管理:基本理论、国际经验及对中国的启示[J].经济社会体制比较,2007.
[25]朱箴元.关于外汇储备结构的几个问题[J].金融教学与研究,2000.
[26]马杰、任若恩、沈沛龙.外汇储备结构调整的非线性规划数学模型[J].信息与控制,2001.
[27]周莹莹,刘传哲,何凌云.外汇储备结构的国内外研究回顾与展望[J].济南金融,2007.
[28]李成,杜志斌.我国外汇储备结构币种结构的风险分析[J].新金融,2006.
[29]张新坡.我国外汇储备的来源结构分析[J].生产力研究,2007.
[30]刘传哲,周莹莹.我国外汇储备结构的优化分析[J].海南金融,2008.
[31]郭晓峰.中国外汇结构管理之探讨.甘肃联合大学学报(社会科学版),2006.
[32]William F.Sharpe,Gordon J.Alexander,Jeffery V.Bailey.Investment. [M].清华大学出版社,2001
[33]Harry Markowitz.Portfolio Selection[J].The Journal of Finance,1952.
[34] H.Robert Heller,MalColm A.Knight.Reserve-currency Preferences of centralbanks.Essays in Interational Finance,1978.
[35]Micheal P.Dooley,Jose Saul Lizondo and Donald J.Mathieson.The curreney composition of foreign exchange reserves.IMF staff Paper,1988.
[36]Michael P.Dooley.An Analysis of the Management of the Currency Composition of Reserve Assets and External Liabilities of Developing Countries[J].The Reconstruction of InternationalMonetary Arrangements,1987.
[37]Elvio Dal Bosco.Central bank's management of foreign exchange reserve.Open Econimies Review,1998.
[38]Roger,S.The Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves[EB/LD].BIS Economic Papers,http://www.bis.org/publ/econ38.pdf:July,1993.
[39]Srichander Ramaswany.Reserve currency allocation:an alternative methodology .BIS working papers, N0. 72, 1999.
[40]Elias Papaioannou,Richard Portes and Gregorios Siourounis.Optimal currency shares in International reserves:The impact of the Euro and the prospects for the Dollar,2006
[41]Srichander Ramaswamy.Portfolio Selection Using Fuzzy Decision Theory [EB/LD].http://www.bis.org/publ/work59.htm: November, 1998.
[42]Barry Eichengreen.The Euro as a Reserve Currency [J].Journal of the Japanese and international economics,1998.
[43]Eichengreen,Barry,Mathieson,Donald.The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves:Retrospect and Prospect[EB/OL].
[44]McCauley,R N, B Fung. Choosing instruments in managing dollar foreign exchange reserves [J]. BIS Quarterly Review, 2003.
[45]Joachim Coche,Matti Koivu,Ken Nyholm,et al.Foreign Reserves Management Subject to A Policy Objective[EB/OL].