基于信息通信技术（ICT）的现代交通信息系统技术选择研究
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摘要
面对全球交通运输压力的增长和可持续发展的要求,智能交通能以智能、高效、安全、便利的方式改善了城市交通环境。信息通信技术通过将智能交通系统的交通信息系统部分与终端用户随时、随地、通过各种方式相连,从而使智能交通能为出行者提供无所不在的服务。
然而,城市智能交通系统的体系庞杂,而交通系统的需求、出行者的需求在不断变化。随着各项技术的跟进,人们将会有更多、更高、更复杂的要求,而频繁对智能交通系统进行变更是高成本、低效率的,不是值得采纳的执行方法。为了满足不断变化的需要并进行技术上的跟进,动态的信息系统是未来交通信息系统的必然趋势。
在这一趋势影响下,传统的信息系统评价方法将不再适合。建立多级量表是一项复杂而庞大的工程,而在一段时间之后又得重新对所有项目赋权值。在量表超过一定规模(如：50个条目)之后,权重的差别将十分细微,人的判断也将越来越不准。因此论文认为应该建立动态的简单二级量表,指标数不超过30,这样将使人的主观能动性得到较好的发挥,同时易于实现动态信息系统技术评价。
论文依据该猜想建立模型的证明和实现方法主要依赖主观评价方法和客观案例分析相结合的方法,通过专家小组的评估获取数据。论文建立在对中国和美国、欧洲、日本三个发达国家和地区的对比分析,以及对近十年四国相关技术文献对比分析的基础之上,对目前主流的评价模型进行剖析,最终提出以综合评价、模糊评价、主观评价为主的评价模型。
论文建立的交通信息系统技术选择模型旨在为中国的城市级以上智能交通系统提供评价的建议,力争实现动态体现信息系统的综合水平,并提供改进指导。
The increasing transport pressure as a global issue and the need of sustainable development in the long run calls for Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) which improves urban transport status quo by intelligent, efficient, safe and convenient ways of traffic management. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) connect end-users with Transport Information Systems anywhere, at any time and by all means, providing ubiquitous services.
However, urban ITS as a large and complex system is difficult to ensure full update in every aspect while the needs of users are constantly changing. (Here, Intelligent Transport System is treated more like a concept than a concrete technology.) Developing technology leads to more increasingly complicated demands which make overhauling the entire system a costly and low-efficient way of updating. To satisfy the growing and changing needs and keep in pace with state-of-the-art ICT, agile evaluation methods for Information Systems are a must in the future.
Under this circumstance, traditional evaluation techniques will not be applicable, because establishing a multi-layered scale as a large and complicated project cannot be easily carried out in a short period of time. Even if it can be established, updating the weights will be a time-consuming drudge. Moreover, when the scale is large enough (eg. over 50 items), the discrepancy among weights will be so little that subjective judgments might not be accurate enough. As a result, the thesis puts forward a comprehensive Transport Information System technology selection model that can be adjusted according to needs and the changes of the (economic, natural, cultural, etc.) environment
The proving and realizing of the model built on this conjecture mainly relies on a combined method of subjective evaluation and objective modification. Data is acquired from a provisional consultant panel and government agencies. The thesis is built on the contrast analysis of the current situation and related literature in China, U.S., Europe and Japan. It closely examines the mainstream evaluation methods in those countries and establishes its own comprehensive evaluation model.
然而,城市智能交通系统的体系庞杂,而交通系统的需求、出行者的需求在不断变化。随着各项技术的跟进,人们将会有更多、更高、更复杂的要求,而频繁对智能交通系统进行变更是高成本、低效率的,不是值得采纳的执行方法。为了满足不断变化的需要并进行技术上的跟进,动态的信息系统是未来交通信息系统的必然趋势。
在这一趋势影响下,传统的信息系统评价方法将不再适合。建立多级量表是一项复杂而庞大的工程,而在一段时间之后又得重新对所有项目赋权值。在量表超过一定规模(如：50个条目)之后,权重的差别将十分细微,人的判断也将越来越不准。因此论文认为应该建立动态的简单二级量表,指标数不超过30,这样将使人的主观能动性得到较好的发挥,同时易于实现动态信息系统技术评价。
论文依据该猜想建立模型的证明和实现方法主要依赖主观评价方法和客观案例分析相结合的方法,通过专家小组的评估获取数据。论文建立在对中国和美国、欧洲、日本三个发达国家和地区的对比分析,以及对近十年四国相关技术文献对比分析的基础之上,对目前主流的评价模型进行剖析,最终提出以综合评价、模糊评价、主观评价为主的评价模型。
论文建立的交通信息系统技术选择模型旨在为中国的城市级以上智能交通系统提供评价的建议,力争实现动态体现信息系统的综合水平,并提供改进指导。
The increasing transport pressure as a global issue and the need of sustainable development in the long run calls for Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) which improves urban transport status quo by intelligent, efficient, safe and convenient ways of traffic management. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) connect end-users with Transport Information Systems anywhere, at any time and by all means, providing ubiquitous services.
However, urban ITS as a large and complex system is difficult to ensure full update in every aspect while the needs of users are constantly changing. (Here, Intelligent Transport System is treated more like a concept than a concrete technology.) Developing technology leads to more increasingly complicated demands which make overhauling the entire system a costly and low-efficient way of updating. To satisfy the growing and changing needs and keep in pace with state-of-the-art ICT, agile evaluation methods for Information Systems are a must in the future.
Under this circumstance, traditional evaluation techniques will not be applicable, because establishing a multi-layered scale as a large and complicated project cannot be easily carried out in a short period of time. Even if it can be established, updating the weights will be a time-consuming drudge. Moreover, when the scale is large enough (eg. over 50 items), the discrepancy among weights will be so little that subjective judgments might not be accurate enough. As a result, the thesis puts forward a comprehensive Transport Information System technology selection model that can be adjusted according to needs and the changes of the (economic, natural, cultural, etc.) environment
The proving and realizing of the model built on this conjecture mainly relies on a combined method of subjective evaluation and objective modification. Data is acquired from a provisional consultant panel and government agencies. The thesis is built on the contrast analysis of the current situation and related literature in China, U.S., Europe and Japan. It closely examines the mainstream evaluation methods in those countries and establishes its own comprehensive evaluation model.
引文
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[2]Ajzen,I. Fishbein,M. Understanding attitudes and predicting social behavior Englewood Cliffs NJ:Prentice-Hall 1980
[3]Aristotelis Naniopoulos Including Elderly and Disabled in Intelligent Transport Systems Development and Application 2001 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference Proceedings Oakland (CA), USA August 25-29 2001
[4]Bagozzi,R.P. Davis,F.D. Warshaw,P.R. Development and test of a theory of technological learning and usage Human Relations 45(7) 1992 pp660-686
[5]Bai,Lin Jiang,Hualei Construction of Evaluation System for Information System Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing,2008. WiCOM '08.4th International Conference on 12-14 Oct.2008 ISBN:978-1-4244-2107-7
[6]Bailey,J.E. Pearson,S.W. Development of a tool for measuring and analysing computer user satisfaction Management Science (29:5) May 1983 pp530-545.
[7]Banker Rajiv Kauffman,Robert et al. "A Comprehensive Bibliography of the Strategic and Economic Value of IT" in:Rajiv Banker, Robert Kauffman and Mo Adam Mahmood, Strategic Information Technology Management Idea Group Publishing, Harrisburg, USA 1993 pp607-657
[8]Barfield,Woodrow Dingus,Thomas A. Human factors in intelligent transport systems Lawrance Erlbaum Associates 1998 pp95-324
[9]Bell,M.C. Environmental factors in intelligent transport systems IEE Proceedings Intell Transp. Syst Vol.153 No.2 June 2006 p113
[10]Carter,Terry Carter,Alan Clear road ahead? IEE REVIEW March,2000 pp9-14
[11]Chen,Kan Miles,john C. ITS Handbook2000:Recommendations from the world Road Association 1999 PIARC 2000 edition (October 1999)
[12]Chikara,Sakae Fujii,Hiroyuki Kawasaki,Ryoji Dynamic Simulation System for ITS Overall-Performance Evaluation from Transport and Telecommunication Views pp125-130
[13]China Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Market Report 2008-2009 Apr.2009
[14]Cronin,B Performance measurement and information management Aslib Proceedings 34(5) 1982 pp227-36
[15]Davis,F.D. Bagozzi,R.P. Warshaw,P.R. User acceptance of computer technology:A comparison of two theoretical models Management Science 35 1989 pp982-1003
[16]Davis,F.D. Perceived usefulness perceived ease of use, and user acceptance of information technology MIS Quarterly 13(3) 1989 pp319-340.
[17]Deng,Jiangao Wang,Min Fuzzy Integrated Evaluation of E-commerce Information System International Symposium on Computer Science and Computational Technology 2008 pp513-516
[18]Doll,W.J. Torkzadeh,G.The Measurement of End User Computing Satisfaction MIS Quarterly (12:2) June 1988 pp258-274.
[19]Farbey,B. Land,F. Targett,D. Evaluating investments in IT Journal of information Technology July,1992 pp109-122
[20]Fishbein,M. Ajzen,I. Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior:An introduction to theory and research Reading, MA:Addison-Wesley 1975
[21]Forrester,Jay W. Urban Dynamics Pegasus Communications 1969 ISBN 1883823390
[22]Fouad,Nagm Karl,Kautz The Advancement of IS Evaluation:A Literature Review PACIS 2008 Proceedings Paper 66
[23]Hallikainen,P Chen L A Holistic Framework on Information Systems Evaluation with a Case Analysis The Electronic Journal Information Systems Evaluation Volume 9 Issue 2 2005 pp57-64
[24]Han,Jiawei Kamber,Micheline Data Mining Concepts and Techniques Higher Education Press 2001 pp303-311
[25]Hannan,E.J. Systematic Sampling Biometrika Vol.49 No.1/2 Jun.,1962 pp.281-283
[26]Hassoun,M. H. Fundamentals of Artificial Neural Networks The MIT Press 1995 pp1-142
[27]Hayashi,H. Morisugi,N. International comparison of background concept and methodology 2000 pp73-88
[28]Hillam,C.E. Edwards,H.M. A Case study approach to evaluation of Information Technology/Information systems (IT/IS) investment evaluation processes within SMEs Electronic Journal of Information Systems Evaluation paperl Issuel November 25,2004
[29]Hochstrasser,B Justifying IT Investments.in Advanced Information Systems:The new Technology in today's business environment UK 1992 pp17-28
[30]Ives,B. Olson,M. Baroudi,J. The Measurement of User Information Satisfaction Communications of the ACM 26 1983 pp785-793
[31]Kabashkin,I. Reliability Model of Intelligent Transport Systems 7th International Conference on ITS 2007 Sophia Antipolis, France January lst,2007
[32]Li,Jun Liu,Chunlu A Proposed Hybrid Evaluation Methodology for Intelligent Transport System Deployment 2004 5th Asian Control Conference January 1st,2004
[33]Li,Y. Waterson,B. McDonald,M. Collection and use of environmental data for transport management:a view from local authoritie ISSN 1751-956 17th June 2008
[34]Lucas,H.C. Jnr. Why information systems fail New York, Columbia University Press 1975 pp20-124
[35]Mackenzie,GA Performance measurement. In:Maurice, LB, ed. Academic library management. London The Library Association 1990 pp196-205
[36]Makridakis,S. The forthcoming information revolution:Its impact on society and firms Futures vol.27 1995 pp.799-821
[37]Miles,J.C. Walker,A.J. The potential application of artificial intelligence in transport IEE Process of Intelligent Transport Systems Vol.153,No.3 September 2006
[38]Monahan,Torin War Rooms" of the Street:Surveillance Practices in Transportation Control Centers The Communication Review 10(4) 2007 pp367-389
[39]Nielsen,Robert Hecht Theory of the backpropagation neural network Neural Networks 1988 ppI593-I605.
[40]Peffers,K Saarinen,T Measuring the Business Value of IT Investments:Inferences from A Study of Senior Bank Executives Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce Vol.12 No.1 2002 pp17-38
[41]Powell,Philip Information Technology Evaluation:Is It Different? Journal of the Operations Research Society vol.43 January,1992 pp29-42
[42]Preston,P. European Union ICT policies:neglected social and cultural dimensions Chapter 2 in Servaes, J (Ed.) The European Information Society' Bristol, UK & Portland, OR:Intellect Books 2003 pp33-58
[43]Rowe Wright The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool:issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting Volume 15, Issue 4 October 1999 pp353-375
[44]Saaty,T.L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process:Planning, Priority Setting, Resource Allocation, ISBN 0-07-054371-2 McGraw-Hill 1980
[45]Scriven,M. The Methodology of Evaluation Rand McNally Chicago 1967 pp39-83
[46]Smithson,S. Hirschman,R. A Critical Analysis of Information Systems Evaluation. In Information System Assessment:Issues and Challenges (Bjorn-Andersen, N. and Davis G. B. EDS) N.Holland, Amsterdam 1998 pp17-37
[47]Song,Bin Zhang,Jingao Li,Pengfei Enterprise Information Systems Evaluation 2006 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Taipei, Taiwan October 8-11,2006 pp4057-4060
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