网络舆论传播规律及其导向研究
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摘要
信息技术给我们的生活带来显著改变,互联网也正在凭借其自身诸多优势,逐渐超越电视、广播、报纸这传统三大媒体,成为社会舆论的一个发源地和交汇场,是社会舆论传播的重要力量。虚拟世界的网络舆论,在宏观上一定程度反映了真实的社会舆论,并对现实世界产生实质性的影响,我们必须加以重视。在目前我国的社会生活中,互联网所起的作用远非其他媒体可以比拟。
由于互联网作为新兴媒体的巨大影响力,近年来党和政府开始高度重视网络舆论。胡锦涛同志指出,要“高度重视互联网的建设、运用、管理”。各级政府也出台了相应的法律法规。然而在学术界,网络舆论研究的兴起是近几年的事情,其内容涵盖了社会科学和自然科学,是当前的研究热点之一。已有的研究围绕网络舆论的若干方面,解释了网络舆论的概念、发展过程以及社会作用,但是尚有一些关键问题等待解决。基于此,本文着重研究网络舆论传播及其导向规律,为社会主义民主法制建设提供理论基础,分析了舆论形成过程、政府对网络舆论的最优监控与导向、网络舆论的法律问题和利用网络舆论促进和谐社会构建等。主要创新点包括：
1)深入研究了网络舆论的形成过程。关于DM (Deffuant Model)模型的舆论演化,现有文献仅分析了同质个体组成的群体舆论的形成,相应的计算机仿真也比较粗糙。本文首先基于DM模型的演化规则,对群体舆论演化规律和参数的关系进行了更为细致的仿真。然后,我们对基本DM模型进行扩展,研究了二维观点的群体舆论演化过程,结果表明,由于观察、分析问题的角度增加,网络舆论收敛到“一致结论”难度更大,很多场合最后往往形成2-3个结论。第三,根据舆论引导的需要,研究了单一的外部观点对群体舆论的作用,通过仿真发现,如果新增外部观点的影响力较小,群体中一些个体仍能够不受干扰,仍然会形成独立的观点；如果影响力较大,群体中没有独立观点形成,绝大多数网络舆论接受外部观点,此外,还发现网络群体难以接受极端的外部观点。第四,根据舆论竞争的需要,研究了群体在竞争性外部观点作用下的舆论演进,通过仿真分析了外部观点影响力、中性观点及非中性观点,以及外部信息影响力不对称这些情况,认为如果希望取得舆论引导的成功,必须使主流观点获得优势。这些内容的分析能够为政府的舆论引导提供参考。
2)以最优化理论为工具,分析了政府对舆情热度问题的监控问题。现有文献认为,只要出现舆情问题,政府都要早早的介入,大力消除网络舆论影响,忽视了舆情监管中的政府成本。本文从政府舆情监管的成本与收益的权衡出发,分析了该问题的泛函优化模型,从最优的角度看,因为成本的关系,政府对舆情的态度应该考虑事件的性质,有些时候可以容忍一定程度的舆情热度,有时则不行,取决于具体情况、问题性质,即舆情带来的负作用与监管成本的比较。此内容的分析能够为政府的舆情监管提供参考。
3)根据我国现行的法律法规,分析了互联网中信息传播及发表言论可能产生的法律问题,针对网络舆论的负面作用导致的网络侵权等行为,通过比较网络侵权不同于传统侵权的特点,探讨了网络侵权行为的定义、责任主体及责任客体,为如何应用法律的管理手段对网络侵权等行为进行事后治理和通过规范进行引导提供依据,作为主要起草者参与制定了《江西省高级人民法院关于审理网络侵权案件适用法律若干问题的指导意见(试行)》；同时就通过网络舆论及其引导,掌握民意、集中民智,形成正确决策,促进社会主义民主法治建设问题进行了探讨。
Information technology brings significant changes to our lives. As a public opinion spread force, the internet is moving beyond the traditional three media of television, radio and newspapers, and is also coming to be a birthpalce of public opinion, a convergence field by virtue of many advantages. We must pay attention to public opinion in internet, for it reflectes public opinion in real world, and also influences the real world.
For the enormous influence of internet as a new media in recent years, our party and government attach great importance to the public opinion on it. Comrade Hu Jintao has pointed out that,"we should pay great attention to establishment, use and management of internet" all levels of government has also introduced the corresponding laws and regulations. However in academia, research on public opinion in internet is just rising. As one of the current research hotspots, its content covers the social sciences and natural sciences. The existing research on the public opinion in internet has explained its concept, development process, and social role, but there are still many key issues are waiting to be answer. Based on this, this paper focuses on the network as a mass media-oriented law, provide a theoretical basis for the building of socialist democracy and legal system, analysis of public opinion formation process, the optimal monitoring and guidance of the Government's network of public opinion, the legal issues of online public opinion and the use of the network of public opinion promote a harmonious society construction. The major innovations include:
1) Depth study of opinion formation process of the network. On the evolution of the Deffuant Model of public opinion, the existing literature only analyzes the formation of groups of homogeneous individual opinion, and the corresponding computer simulation is also rough. Firstly, based on the evolution of rules for DM model, we carry out a more detailed simulation on Public opinion evolution law and the relationship of the parameters. Then, we extend the basic DM model to research public opinion of the two-dimensional, which makes clear that it difficult to draw into "common conclusion" when we analyze problems form more points, and it maybe form two or three conclusions at last.Third, aiming at public opinion guidance, we study the single external point of view the role of group opinion, and find through simulation, if the new external point of view the influence of small groups, some individuals are still undisturbed, will still form an independent point of view; influential groups, the formation of an independent perspective, accept all the external point of view, also found that the group is difficult to end extreme external perspective. Fourth, according to the needs of the competition of public opinion, we research groups in the competitive external point of view the role of public opinion evolution through the simulation analysis of the influence of the external perspective, the neutral point of view and non-neutral point of view, as well as the influence of external information asymmetry these that to obtain public opinion to guide the success of the mainstream point of view to gain an advantage. This content analysis can provide a reference for the government's guidance of public opinion.
2) Optimization theory as a tool of government monitoring of public opinion, the thermal problem. The existing literature suggests that as long as public opinion problem, the government should be early intervention make it to eliminate the strong, ignoring public opinion in the supervision of government cost. Departure from the government public opinion, regulatory costs and benefits of the trade-off analysis of the functional optimization model of the problem from the optimal angle of view, because the relationship between cost, the Government should consider the nature of the incident on the attitude of public opinion, and sometimes can be tolerated the public opinion of a certain degree of heat, and sometimes not, depending on the situation, the comparison of the negative effects of public opinion and regulatory costs. This content analysis can provide a reference for the Government's public opinion supervision.
3)According to existing laws and regulations in China today, the author analysed the legal issues about information dissemination in the Internet, made guidance on law applicable to network infringement dispute case which adopted by the relevant departments; Through a network of public opinion and its guidance, to gauge public opinion, to pool their wisdom, the formation of correct decisions, and promoting socialist democracy and building issues were discussed. Aims at the negative effects of public opinion on internet, such as Infringement and so on, the anthor compared Infringement on internet and traditional Infringement, and defined internet Infringement behavior, its principal and nonego, to provide the basis of apply the law and management tools to internet Infringement after treatment and guide specifications
由于互联网作为新兴媒体的巨大影响力,近年来党和政府开始高度重视网络舆论。胡锦涛同志指出,要“高度重视互联网的建设、运用、管理”。各级政府也出台了相应的法律法规。然而在学术界,网络舆论研究的兴起是近几年的事情,其内容涵盖了社会科学和自然科学,是当前的研究热点之一。已有的研究围绕网络舆论的若干方面,解释了网络舆论的概念、发展过程以及社会作用,但是尚有一些关键问题等待解决。基于此,本文着重研究网络舆论传播及其导向规律,为社会主义民主法制建设提供理论基础,分析了舆论形成过程、政府对网络舆论的最优监控与导向、网络舆论的法律问题和利用网络舆论促进和谐社会构建等。主要创新点包括：
1)深入研究了网络舆论的形成过程。关于DM (Deffuant Model)模型的舆论演化,现有文献仅分析了同质个体组成的群体舆论的形成,相应的计算机仿真也比较粗糙。本文首先基于DM模型的演化规则,对群体舆论演化规律和参数的关系进行了更为细致的仿真。然后,我们对基本DM模型进行扩展,研究了二维观点的群体舆论演化过程,结果表明,由于观察、分析问题的角度增加,网络舆论收敛到“一致结论”难度更大,很多场合最后往往形成2-3个结论。第三,根据舆论引导的需要,研究了单一的外部观点对群体舆论的作用,通过仿真发现,如果新增外部观点的影响力较小,群体中一些个体仍能够不受干扰,仍然会形成独立的观点；如果影响力较大,群体中没有独立观点形成,绝大多数网络舆论接受外部观点,此外,还发现网络群体难以接受极端的外部观点。第四,根据舆论竞争的需要,研究了群体在竞争性外部观点作用下的舆论演进,通过仿真分析了外部观点影响力、中性观点及非中性观点,以及外部信息影响力不对称这些情况,认为如果希望取得舆论引导的成功,必须使主流观点获得优势。这些内容的分析能够为政府的舆论引导提供参考。
2)以最优化理论为工具,分析了政府对舆情热度问题的监控问题。现有文献认为,只要出现舆情问题,政府都要早早的介入,大力消除网络舆论影响,忽视了舆情监管中的政府成本。本文从政府舆情监管的成本与收益的权衡出发,分析了该问题的泛函优化模型,从最优的角度看,因为成本的关系,政府对舆情的态度应该考虑事件的性质,有些时候可以容忍一定程度的舆情热度,有时则不行,取决于具体情况、问题性质,即舆情带来的负作用与监管成本的比较。此内容的分析能够为政府的舆情监管提供参考。
3)根据我国现行的法律法规,分析了互联网中信息传播及发表言论可能产生的法律问题,针对网络舆论的负面作用导致的网络侵权等行为,通过比较网络侵权不同于传统侵权的特点,探讨了网络侵权行为的定义、责任主体及责任客体,为如何应用法律的管理手段对网络侵权等行为进行事后治理和通过规范进行引导提供依据,作为主要起草者参与制定了《江西省高级人民法院关于审理网络侵权案件适用法律若干问题的指导意见(试行)》；同时就通过网络舆论及其引导,掌握民意、集中民智,形成正确决策,促进社会主义民主法治建设问题进行了探讨。
Information technology brings significant changes to our lives. As a public opinion spread force, the internet is moving beyond the traditional three media of television, radio and newspapers, and is also coming to be a birthpalce of public opinion, a convergence field by virtue of many advantages. We must pay attention to public opinion in internet, for it reflectes public opinion in real world, and also influences the real world.
For the enormous influence of internet as a new media in recent years, our party and government attach great importance to the public opinion on it. Comrade Hu Jintao has pointed out that,"we should pay great attention to establishment, use and management of internet" all levels of government has also introduced the corresponding laws and regulations. However in academia, research on public opinion in internet is just rising. As one of the current research hotspots, its content covers the social sciences and natural sciences. The existing research on the public opinion in internet has explained its concept, development process, and social role, but there are still many key issues are waiting to be answer. Based on this, this paper focuses on the network as a mass media-oriented law, provide a theoretical basis for the building of socialist democracy and legal system, analysis of public opinion formation process, the optimal monitoring and guidance of the Government's network of public opinion, the legal issues of online public opinion and the use of the network of public opinion promote a harmonious society construction. The major innovations include:
1) Depth study of opinion formation process of the network. On the evolution of the Deffuant Model of public opinion, the existing literature only analyzes the formation of groups of homogeneous individual opinion, and the corresponding computer simulation is also rough. Firstly, based on the evolution of rules for DM model, we carry out a more detailed simulation on Public opinion evolution law and the relationship of the parameters. Then, we extend the basic DM model to research public opinion of the two-dimensional, which makes clear that it difficult to draw into "common conclusion" when we analyze problems form more points, and it maybe form two or three conclusions at last.Third, aiming at public opinion guidance, we study the single external point of view the role of group opinion, and find through simulation, if the new external point of view the influence of small groups, some individuals are still undisturbed, will still form an independent point of view; influential groups, the formation of an independent perspective, accept all the external point of view, also found that the group is difficult to end extreme external perspective. Fourth, according to the needs of the competition of public opinion, we research groups in the competitive external point of view the role of public opinion evolution through the simulation analysis of the influence of the external perspective, the neutral point of view and non-neutral point of view, as well as the influence of external information asymmetry these that to obtain public opinion to guide the success of the mainstream point of view to gain an advantage. This content analysis can provide a reference for the government's guidance of public opinion.
2) Optimization theory as a tool of government monitoring of public opinion, the thermal problem. The existing literature suggests that as long as public opinion problem, the government should be early intervention make it to eliminate the strong, ignoring public opinion in the supervision of government cost. Departure from the government public opinion, regulatory costs and benefits of the trade-off analysis of the functional optimization model of the problem from the optimal angle of view, because the relationship between cost, the Government should consider the nature of the incident on the attitude of public opinion, and sometimes can be tolerated the public opinion of a certain degree of heat, and sometimes not, depending on the situation, the comparison of the negative effects of public opinion and regulatory costs. This content analysis can provide a reference for the Government's public opinion supervision.
3)According to existing laws and regulations in China today, the author analysed the legal issues about information dissemination in the Internet, made guidance on law applicable to network infringement dispute case which adopted by the relevant departments; Through a network of public opinion and its guidance, to gauge public opinion, to pool their wisdom, the formation of correct decisions, and promoting socialist democracy and building issues were discussed. Aims at the negative effects of public opinion on internet, such as Infringement and so on, the anthor compared Infringement on internet and traditional Infringement, and defined internet Infringement behavior, its principal and nonego, to provide the basis of apply the law and management tools to internet Infringement after treatment and guide specifications
引文
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