湖北水稻区域产量保险精算研究
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摘要
农业保险作为一种有效分散农业风险及损失的机制,不仅是农业保障体系中一个重要的组成部分,而且已成为国际上重要的非价格农业保护工具之一。十六大以来,党中央、国务院对政策性农业保险的发展给予了高度重视。2004～2009连续6年的中央1号文件、“十一五”规划及2006年6月颁布的《国务院关于保险业改革发展的若干意见》都对政策性农业保险的发展提出了明确要求。随着2004年新一轮农业保险试点在全国各地展开,农业保险开始展现良好的发展势头,2004～2006年的农业保险原保费收入分别达3.96亿元、7.29亿元、8.46亿元。在国家财政的大力支持下,2007和2008年更分别增至51.8亿元和110.7亿元。
近两年来,我国农业保险的发展令人鼓舞,但我们不能忽略的是,目前实行的是农作物成本险,其保障程度非常低。如何在目前国家财力和农户收入水平有限的条件下提高保障程度?这无疑是一个重要的课题。相比农作物收入险和农作物个人产量险,近年来在印度和巴西等发展中国家大力推行的农作物区域产量保险无疑是较好的选择。
对农户而言,该保险产品费率较低、便于购买,且有助于其抵御系统性风险;对保险人而言,该保险产品可消除道德风险,减轻逆选择,能在一定程度上化解系统性风险,而且数据易得、可信,能极大降低交易成本;对政府而言,只需提供较少的保费补贴,可减轻财政负担。尽管农作物区域产量保险不能防范基础风险,但如将成本险与区域产量保险打包,则可减轻之。
目前,国内对农作物区域产量保险的研究较为少见,农作物产量保险精算研究则更为薄弱。鉴于此,本文以湖北水稻为例,就农作物县级区域产量保险精算中的风险评估、风险区划、费率厘定和合同设计等方面进行了深入、细致的实证研究。
本文的主要内容及结论如下:
第一,分析湖北主要农业气象灾害情况。着重分析主要灾害——旱灾和涝灾的时空分布、强度和范围及年际变化等规律,并评判各地旱涝灾害等级。
第二,评估湖北水稻生产面临的灾害风险。鉴于在小样本条件下进行灾害损失估计,非参数信息扩散模型明显优于一般的参数和非参数估计方法,本文运用非参数核密度估计法来估算湖北各县(市、区)早、中、晚稻灾害损失率分别为0,0.01,0.02,…,0.99,1共101种情形下的概率。
第三,进行湖北水稻区域产量保险风险区划。在综合考虑气候、农业灾害、地形地貌、水利设施、作物熟制等因素的基础上,以湖北省水稻为例,本文选取并量化“海拔高度”,“旱灾等级”,“涝灾等级”,“≥10度积温”,“年降水量”,“年日照时数”,“年平均气温”,“单产变异系数”,“有效灌溉面积比率”,“旱涝保收比率”,“灾害损失率超过4%的概率”,“灾害损失率超过8%的概率”等共12个指标,联合使用因子分析法和模糊聚类法,按多个风险等级,分早、中、晚稻来划分湖北水稻县级区域产量保险风险区划。
第四,厘定湖北水稻区域产量保险纯费率。通过对ARIMA模型下的经验费率法、ARIMA模型下的非参数核密度估计法和分层贝叶斯模型法进行比较实证研究,本研究发现ARIMA模型下的经验费率法和ARIMA模型下的非参数核密度估计法所厘定的费率较为接近,但从理论上来讲后一种更合理;ARIMA模型下的非参数核密度估计法和分层贝叶斯模型法所厘定的费率有明显差别,但在仅选取8个地区,并使用基本相同的产量拟合模型的情况下,所得到的100%保障产量及其对应的纯费率是基本一致的。因此,根据比较实证研究的结果,本文选用ARIMA模型下的非参数核密度估计法厘定湖北各县(市、区)早、中、晚稻在100%保障水平下的纯费率。
第五,探讨湖北水稻区域产量保险合同设计。本文从保险区域选择、县级产量集中趋势预测、赔偿支付规则、免赔的范围和保障选择的确定、费率厘定等5个方面探讨湖北水稻区域产量保险的合同设计问题。
本研究在我国农作物县级区域产量保险风险分区、费率厘定和合同设计等方面均有所突破,在一定程度上丰富了农作物区域产量保险精算的研究成果,可为类似研究提供借鉴,亦为湖北水稻区域产量保险的开展提供了科学依据。
As an effective mechanism to transfer risks and compensate losses, agricultural insurance is not only an important part of the agricultural security system, but also one of the internationally important non-price protection tools. Since the 16th National Congress, the central Party and State Council have been attaching great importance to the development of policy-oriented agricultural insurance, which is manifested in six consecutively released pieces of No.1 central document from the year of 2004 to 2009, the "tenth-five year" planning and the document "State Council Guidance on Insurance Reform and Development" issued in June 2006. With a new round of pilot project carried out all through the country since 2004, it is seen that agricultural insurance develops well, for the premium income from 2004 to 2006 was 396 million, 729 million and 846 million respectively. Supported by national finance, it has continually increased to 5.18 billion in 2007 and 11.07 billion in 2008.
However, agricultural insurance has been developing well in China in the recent two years, there is still one question that the security provided by current material cost crop insurance is insufficient. Then it is a very critical issue to study how to improve security level under the condition that national finance and farm households' income are limited. Compared with crop income insurance and farm-level yield crop insurance, it is undoubted that area yield crop insurance which has been promoted in the developing countries like India and Brazil in recent years is the better choice.
It is affordable and accessible to farm households for the premium rate of area yield crop insurance is low while of great help for them to resist system risk. It avoids the moral hazard and adverse selection problems for the insurer by eliminating system risk to some extent. In addition, the data of such an insurance plan is easily available and credible, reducing transaction cost sharply. It is favorable for the government to lighten financial burden providing only a small amount of premium subsidy. Nevertheless, area yield crop insurance cannot prevent basic risk; if packaged with income insurance, it can reduce basic risk.
Nowadays, there is scarce domestic research on area yield crop insurance, let alone relative actuarial research. Therefore, with rice production in Hubei Province as an example, this dissertation makes a deep and detailed empirical study on risk evaluation and division, rate making and contract design of county-level yield crop insurance actuarial.
The main content and conclusion of the dissertation are as follows.
First of all, it analyzes the main agricultural meteorological disasters in Hubei, focusing on the spatial and time distribution, intensity and range and annual change of drought and flood, as well as ranking drought and flood in different regions.
Secondly, the dissertation evaluates the disaster risks confronted with in rice production in Hubei Province. Since non-parameter information diffusion model is superior to common parameter and non-parameter methods when evaluating losses from disasters with a small sample size, the dissertation makes use of non-parameter density function to evaluate the probability of early rice, midseason rice and late rice with a loss rate ranging from 0 to 1.
Thirdly, it makes risk division of area yield crop insurance in Hubei Province. Climate, agricultural disaster, topography, water conservancy facilities and crop rotation considered, the dissertation selects twelve indexes, such as altitude, ranking of drought and flood and so on, to make risk division of county-level yield rice insurance in Hubei Province by factor analytic method and fuzzy clustering method.
Fourthly is the making of pure premium rate of area yield rice insurance in Hubei Province. Comparing the result calculated respectively by experience rate method, non-parameter density function and hierarchical Bayesian' model under ARIMA model, it is found that the result from the former two methods are much close while the last one is more reasonable theoretically. There is significant difference of the rate made respectively by non-parameter density function and hierarchical Bayesian' model. However, if 8 regions selected and similar yield fitting model used, 100% coverage yield basically coincides with corresponding pure premium rate. Accordingly, the dissertation selects non-parameter density function under ARIMA model to make the pure premium rate of early rice, midseason rice and late rice in each county (city or district) of Hubei Province on 100% coverage level.
At last, the dissertation discusses the design of an area yield rice insurance contract from five aspects, which are selection of insured area, forecast of central tendency of county-level yield, indemnity payout rules, determination of the range of franchise clause and coverage level and rate-making.
The dissertation has made breakthrough in risk division, rate-making and contract design of county-level yield crop insurance and enriched the accomplishment of actuarial research on area yield crop insurance to a certain degree, which will provide reference for similar research and offer a scientific basis for developing area yield rice insurance in Hubei Province.
近两年来,我国农业保险的发展令人鼓舞,但我们不能忽略的是,目前实行的是农作物成本险,其保障程度非常低。如何在目前国家财力和农户收入水平有限的条件下提高保障程度?这无疑是一个重要的课题。相比农作物收入险和农作物个人产量险,近年来在印度和巴西等发展中国家大力推行的农作物区域产量保险无疑是较好的选择。
对农户而言,该保险产品费率较低、便于购买,且有助于其抵御系统性风险;对保险人而言,该保险产品可消除道德风险,减轻逆选择,能在一定程度上化解系统性风险,而且数据易得、可信,能极大降低交易成本;对政府而言,只需提供较少的保费补贴,可减轻财政负担。尽管农作物区域产量保险不能防范基础风险,但如将成本险与区域产量保险打包,则可减轻之。
目前,国内对农作物区域产量保险的研究较为少见,农作物产量保险精算研究则更为薄弱。鉴于此,本文以湖北水稻为例,就农作物县级区域产量保险精算中的风险评估、风险区划、费率厘定和合同设计等方面进行了深入、细致的实证研究。
本文的主要内容及结论如下:
第一,分析湖北主要农业气象灾害情况。着重分析主要灾害——旱灾和涝灾的时空分布、强度和范围及年际变化等规律,并评判各地旱涝灾害等级。
第二,评估湖北水稻生产面临的灾害风险。鉴于在小样本条件下进行灾害损失估计,非参数信息扩散模型明显优于一般的参数和非参数估计方法,本文运用非参数核密度估计法来估算湖北各县(市、区)早、中、晚稻灾害损失率分别为0,0.01,0.02,…,0.99,1共101种情形下的概率。
第三,进行湖北水稻区域产量保险风险区划。在综合考虑气候、农业灾害、地形地貌、水利设施、作物熟制等因素的基础上,以湖北省水稻为例,本文选取并量化“海拔高度”,“旱灾等级”,“涝灾等级”,“≥10度积温”,“年降水量”,“年日照时数”,“年平均气温”,“单产变异系数”,“有效灌溉面积比率”,“旱涝保收比率”,“灾害损失率超过4%的概率”,“灾害损失率超过8%的概率”等共12个指标,联合使用因子分析法和模糊聚类法,按多个风险等级,分早、中、晚稻来划分湖北水稻县级区域产量保险风险区划。
第四,厘定湖北水稻区域产量保险纯费率。通过对ARIMA模型下的经验费率法、ARIMA模型下的非参数核密度估计法和分层贝叶斯模型法进行比较实证研究,本研究发现ARIMA模型下的经验费率法和ARIMA模型下的非参数核密度估计法所厘定的费率较为接近,但从理论上来讲后一种更合理;ARIMA模型下的非参数核密度估计法和分层贝叶斯模型法所厘定的费率有明显差别,但在仅选取8个地区,并使用基本相同的产量拟合模型的情况下,所得到的100%保障产量及其对应的纯费率是基本一致的。因此,根据比较实证研究的结果,本文选用ARIMA模型下的非参数核密度估计法厘定湖北各县(市、区)早、中、晚稻在100%保障水平下的纯费率。
第五,探讨湖北水稻区域产量保险合同设计。本文从保险区域选择、县级产量集中趋势预测、赔偿支付规则、免赔的范围和保障选择的确定、费率厘定等5个方面探讨湖北水稻区域产量保险的合同设计问题。
本研究在我国农作物县级区域产量保险风险分区、费率厘定和合同设计等方面均有所突破,在一定程度上丰富了农作物区域产量保险精算的研究成果,可为类似研究提供借鉴,亦为湖北水稻区域产量保险的开展提供了科学依据。
As an effective mechanism to transfer risks and compensate losses, agricultural insurance is not only an important part of the agricultural security system, but also one of the internationally important non-price protection tools. Since the 16th National Congress, the central Party and State Council have been attaching great importance to the development of policy-oriented agricultural insurance, which is manifested in six consecutively released pieces of No.1 central document from the year of 2004 to 2009, the "tenth-five year" planning and the document "State Council Guidance on Insurance Reform and Development" issued in June 2006. With a new round of pilot project carried out all through the country since 2004, it is seen that agricultural insurance develops well, for the premium income from 2004 to 2006 was 396 million, 729 million and 846 million respectively. Supported by national finance, it has continually increased to 5.18 billion in 2007 and 11.07 billion in 2008.
However, agricultural insurance has been developing well in China in the recent two years, there is still one question that the security provided by current material cost crop insurance is insufficient. Then it is a very critical issue to study how to improve security level under the condition that national finance and farm households' income are limited. Compared with crop income insurance and farm-level yield crop insurance, it is undoubted that area yield crop insurance which has been promoted in the developing countries like India and Brazil in recent years is the better choice.
It is affordable and accessible to farm households for the premium rate of area yield crop insurance is low while of great help for them to resist system risk. It avoids the moral hazard and adverse selection problems for the insurer by eliminating system risk to some extent. In addition, the data of such an insurance plan is easily available and credible, reducing transaction cost sharply. It is favorable for the government to lighten financial burden providing only a small amount of premium subsidy. Nevertheless, area yield crop insurance cannot prevent basic risk; if packaged with income insurance, it can reduce basic risk.
Nowadays, there is scarce domestic research on area yield crop insurance, let alone relative actuarial research. Therefore, with rice production in Hubei Province as an example, this dissertation makes a deep and detailed empirical study on risk evaluation and division, rate making and contract design of county-level yield crop insurance actuarial.
The main content and conclusion of the dissertation are as follows.
First of all, it analyzes the main agricultural meteorological disasters in Hubei, focusing on the spatial and time distribution, intensity and range and annual change of drought and flood, as well as ranking drought and flood in different regions.
Secondly, the dissertation evaluates the disaster risks confronted with in rice production in Hubei Province. Since non-parameter information diffusion model is superior to common parameter and non-parameter methods when evaluating losses from disasters with a small sample size, the dissertation makes use of non-parameter density function to evaluate the probability of early rice, midseason rice and late rice with a loss rate ranging from 0 to 1.
Thirdly, it makes risk division of area yield crop insurance in Hubei Province. Climate, agricultural disaster, topography, water conservancy facilities and crop rotation considered, the dissertation selects twelve indexes, such as altitude, ranking of drought and flood and so on, to make risk division of county-level yield rice insurance in Hubei Province by factor analytic method and fuzzy clustering method.
Fourthly is the making of pure premium rate of area yield rice insurance in Hubei Province. Comparing the result calculated respectively by experience rate method, non-parameter density function and hierarchical Bayesian' model under ARIMA model, it is found that the result from the former two methods are much close while the last one is more reasonable theoretically. There is significant difference of the rate made respectively by non-parameter density function and hierarchical Bayesian' model. However, if 8 regions selected and similar yield fitting model used, 100% coverage yield basically coincides with corresponding pure premium rate. Accordingly, the dissertation selects non-parameter density function under ARIMA model to make the pure premium rate of early rice, midseason rice and late rice in each county (city or district) of Hubei Province on 100% coverage level.
At last, the dissertation discusses the design of an area yield rice insurance contract from five aspects, which are selection of insured area, forecast of central tendency of county-level yield, indemnity payout rules, determination of the range of franchise clause and coverage level and rate-making.
The dissertation has made breakthrough in risk division, rate-making and contract design of county-level yield crop insurance and enriched the accomplishment of actuarial research on area yield crop insurance to a certain degree, which will provide reference for similar research and offer a scientific basis for developing area yield rice insurance in Hubei Province.
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