风电转换系统可靠性评估及其薄弱环节辨识
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摘要
在能源危机与环境保护的双重压力下，风电大规模开发利用已成为世界各国改变能源结构的重要措施。近年来，世界各国风电装机规模不断增加，风电转换系统额定容量不断增大。特别地，我国连续多年保持高增长率，风电装机容量已居世界首位。在风电转换系统的设计开发、维护维修、风电场规划、电力系统运行管理等活动中，可靠性的影响越来越突出，开展风电转换系统可靠性相关问题的研究具有重要意义。
本文结合国家自然基金项目“风电场可靠性评估的概率模型及其应用”（51077135），进行了风电转换系统可靠性的研究和探索，重点研究了风速对变流器可靠性的影响、风速与气温对风电变压器绝缘寿命评估和容量选择的影响、多发电机及变流器模块并联结构对风电转换系统可靠性的影响、风电转换系统薄弱环节辨识方法等相关问题。
基于风速随机变化对风电转换系统变流器运行功率、输入电压、功率损耗等相关参数的影响，建立变流器元件故障率的风速影响模型；进而结合变流器的拓扑结构和故障机理，基于变流器多状态概率模型，建立了风电转换系统变流器及其子系统（机侧变换器、直流环节、网侧变换器等）可靠性的风速影响模型。分析了风速、风机参数（切入风速、额定风速和切除风速）对风电转换系统变流器可靠性的影响。算例表明：风速和风机参数中的额定风速对风电转换系统变流器的可靠性有较大影响，风速与变流器故障率之间的关系曲线和风电转换系统输出功率特性曲线的形状类似；另外，变流器可靠性也具有季节性变化的特征。
风电场中变压器运行状态受风速和气温影响，变压器负载率随风速变化而变化。基于IEEE变压器老化模型，建立了计及风速和气温的风电场中变压器绝缘老化评估模型；以此为基础，计及变压器油温、绕组温度、最大负荷系数等运行条件约束，以全寿命周期成本最低为目标函数，建立了风电场中变压器额定容量优化模型。分析了储能装置对风电场中变压器绝缘寿命和容量配置的影响。算例表明：变压器绝缘老化水平与风速相关；经过优化，风电场中，变压器额定容量可极大降低；另外，验证了风电场中变压器额定容量与其全寿命周期成本是正相关关系，即风电场中满足技术约束的最小容量的变压器即是经济上最优的变压器。
根据现有多发电机或变流器模块并联的风电转换系统新型结构，提出风电转换系统年度期望风能损失等新的可靠性指标，建立计及风速的可靠性计算解析模型。分析了不同结构对风电转换系统可靠性的影响。算例表明：两种结构改善风电转换系统可靠性的本质不同。
基于系统不可靠度由故障元件承担责任和比例分摊的原则，建立了风电转换系统可靠性跟踪模型，以量化风电转换系统各组件对系统可靠性指标的贡献；提出以年度强迫停运损失为风电转换系统薄弱环节判断指标，以综合反映系统可靠性和经济性信息；进而建立风电转换系统薄弱环节辨识模型，给出风电转换系统可靠性跟踪及薄弱环节辨识算法。分析了薄弱环节可靠性改善时系统指标的改善效果。为风电转换系统优化设计提供有用的信息，为运行维护策略的决策提供理论依据。算例表明：双馈风电转换系统中，齿轮箱、桨叶、发电机等是系统较为薄弱的环节，是可靠性设计、系统运行维护的关键部件。
Under the dual pressures from energy crisis and environmental protection,large-scale wind power development and utilization have become important measures tochange the energy composition of many countries in the world. In recent years, theinstalled capacity of wind power and rated capacity of individual wind energyconversion systems (WECS) have been increasing, especially in China, for many yearsto maintain a high growth rate of installed capacity. Currently, China has the largesttotal installed capacity of wind power in the world. The WECS reliability has significanteffects on the WECS design, development, maintenance, repair, wind farm planning,power system operation and management. Therefore, it is important to study the relativeissues of WECS reliability.
Supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(“Probabilistic model and application of wind farm reliability evaluation”, No.51077135), this thesis conducted the researches and explorations of WECS reliability.The studies focus on the impacts of wind speed and other factors on the reliability ofwind turbine power converter system, impacts of wind speed and temperature on theinsulation life and capacity determination of wind power transformer, impacts ofparallel structure of generators and converter modules on the WECS reliability and theidentification method of WECS weak links.
A multi-state probability analysis method is proposed considering the operatingcharacteristic of WECS power converter varying with wind speeds. Wind speed effectmodels of failure rate for power converter subsystems (Generator-side inverter, DC-linkand Grid-side inverter, etc.) and their power electronic components in WECS are built,and then wind speed effect model of WECS power converter reliability is built. Inaddition, the impacts of wind speed and wind turbine parameters (Cut-in, Rated andCut-out wind speeds) on the reliability of power converter in a WECS are analyzed. Theresults of case studies indicate that the reliability of wind turbine power converter isaffected significantly by the variations of wind speed and rated wind speed of windturbine. The relationship between wind speed and the converter failure rate is similar tothat between the output power of WECS and wind speed. In addition, the powerconverter reliability changes with seasons.
Similarly, considering the characteristic that the operating state of transformer in a wind farm is affected by wind speeds and load factor of transformer changes with windspeeds, an evaluation model of wind farm transformer insulation aging is proposedbased on the IEEE transformer aging model. On basis of this, the capacity optimizationmodel of wind farm transformer is proposed to minimize the life cycle cost (LCC) oftransformer and meet its technique constraints (oil temperature, winding temperatureand maximal load factor). In addition, the impacts of energy storage system on thetransformer insulation life and capacity determination are analyzed. Case studies showthat the level of wind farm transformer insulation aging is related to wind speeds, andthe rated capacity of wind farm transformer can be reduced greatly using the proposedoptimization model. In addition, a positive correlativity between the rated capacity ofwind farm transformer and its LCC is verified. That is, the transformer with minimalcapacity to meet the technique constraints is economically optimal.
According to the new structure of existing multiple generators or convertermodules in parallel in WECS, a new reliability index, annual expected energy loss(AEEL), is proposed and an analytical reliability model for this WECS is builtconsidering the effect of wind speeds to analyze the effects of different structures on thereliability performance of WECS. The results of case studies show that there is a largegap in essence of improving WECS reliability for two parallel structures.
Based on the principle that the responsibility of system unreliability is assigned tofailed components and proportional-sharing-principle, a reliability-tracing model ofWECS is proposed to quantify the contribution of each subassembly to the WECSunreliability indices. According to the identification and analysis of WECS weak partsbased on different reliability indices, the annual losses due to forced outage arerecommended to be the most reasonable index for weak part identification because itcan comprehensively reflect the WECS reliability and economic performance. At thesame time, a flow chart for tracing the WECS unreliability and identifying weak parts ispresented. Finally, the impacts of improving the subassembly reliability performance onthe losses are analyzed. The proposed method can provide useful information foroptimization design and theoretical foundation for decision-making of operation andmaintenance strategy. The case studies show that the gearbox, blade/pitch and generatorare weaker parts of a double-fed WECS, which should be given great attention in theprocesses of system design, operation and maintenance.
本文结合国家自然基金项目“风电场可靠性评估的概率模型及其应用”（51077135），进行了风电转换系统可靠性的研究和探索，重点研究了风速对变流器可靠性的影响、风速与气温对风电变压器绝缘寿命评估和容量选择的影响、多发电机及变流器模块并联结构对风电转换系统可靠性的影响、风电转换系统薄弱环节辨识方法等相关问题。
基于风速随机变化对风电转换系统变流器运行功率、输入电压、功率损耗等相关参数的影响，建立变流器元件故障率的风速影响模型；进而结合变流器的拓扑结构和故障机理，基于变流器多状态概率模型，建立了风电转换系统变流器及其子系统（机侧变换器、直流环节、网侧变换器等）可靠性的风速影响模型。分析了风速、风机参数（切入风速、额定风速和切除风速）对风电转换系统变流器可靠性的影响。算例表明：风速和风机参数中的额定风速对风电转换系统变流器的可靠性有较大影响，风速与变流器故障率之间的关系曲线和风电转换系统输出功率特性曲线的形状类似；另外，变流器可靠性也具有季节性变化的特征。
风电场中变压器运行状态受风速和气温影响，变压器负载率随风速变化而变化。基于IEEE变压器老化模型，建立了计及风速和气温的风电场中变压器绝缘老化评估模型；以此为基础，计及变压器油温、绕组温度、最大负荷系数等运行条件约束，以全寿命周期成本最低为目标函数，建立了风电场中变压器额定容量优化模型。分析了储能装置对风电场中变压器绝缘寿命和容量配置的影响。算例表明：变压器绝缘老化水平与风速相关；经过优化，风电场中，变压器额定容量可极大降低；另外，验证了风电场中变压器额定容量与其全寿命周期成本是正相关关系，即风电场中满足技术约束的最小容量的变压器即是经济上最优的变压器。
根据现有多发电机或变流器模块并联的风电转换系统新型结构，提出风电转换系统年度期望风能损失等新的可靠性指标，建立计及风速的可靠性计算解析模型。分析了不同结构对风电转换系统可靠性的影响。算例表明：两种结构改善风电转换系统可靠性的本质不同。
基于系统不可靠度由故障元件承担责任和比例分摊的原则，建立了风电转换系统可靠性跟踪模型，以量化风电转换系统各组件对系统可靠性指标的贡献；提出以年度强迫停运损失为风电转换系统薄弱环节判断指标，以综合反映系统可靠性和经济性信息；进而建立风电转换系统薄弱环节辨识模型，给出风电转换系统可靠性跟踪及薄弱环节辨识算法。分析了薄弱环节可靠性改善时系统指标的改善效果。为风电转换系统优化设计提供有用的信息，为运行维护策略的决策提供理论依据。算例表明：双馈风电转换系统中，齿轮箱、桨叶、发电机等是系统较为薄弱的环节，是可靠性设计、系统运行维护的关键部件。
Under the dual pressures from energy crisis and environmental protection,large-scale wind power development and utilization have become important measures tochange the energy composition of many countries in the world. In recent years, theinstalled capacity of wind power and rated capacity of individual wind energyconversion systems (WECS) have been increasing, especially in China, for many yearsto maintain a high growth rate of installed capacity. Currently, China has the largesttotal installed capacity of wind power in the world. The WECS reliability has significanteffects on the WECS design, development, maintenance, repair, wind farm planning,power system operation and management. Therefore, it is important to study the relativeissues of WECS reliability.
Supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(“Probabilistic model and application of wind farm reliability evaluation”, No.51077135), this thesis conducted the researches and explorations of WECS reliability.The studies focus on the impacts of wind speed and other factors on the reliability ofwind turbine power converter system, impacts of wind speed and temperature on theinsulation life and capacity determination of wind power transformer, impacts ofparallel structure of generators and converter modules on the WECS reliability and theidentification method of WECS weak links.
A multi-state probability analysis method is proposed considering the operatingcharacteristic of WECS power converter varying with wind speeds. Wind speed effectmodels of failure rate for power converter subsystems (Generator-side inverter, DC-linkand Grid-side inverter, etc.) and their power electronic components in WECS are built,and then wind speed effect model of WECS power converter reliability is built. Inaddition, the impacts of wind speed and wind turbine parameters (Cut-in, Rated andCut-out wind speeds) on the reliability of power converter in a WECS are analyzed. Theresults of case studies indicate that the reliability of wind turbine power converter isaffected significantly by the variations of wind speed and rated wind speed of windturbine. The relationship between wind speed and the converter failure rate is similar tothat between the output power of WECS and wind speed. In addition, the powerconverter reliability changes with seasons.
Similarly, considering the characteristic that the operating state of transformer in a wind farm is affected by wind speeds and load factor of transformer changes with windspeeds, an evaluation model of wind farm transformer insulation aging is proposedbased on the IEEE transformer aging model. On basis of this, the capacity optimizationmodel of wind farm transformer is proposed to minimize the life cycle cost (LCC) oftransformer and meet its technique constraints (oil temperature, winding temperatureand maximal load factor). In addition, the impacts of energy storage system on thetransformer insulation life and capacity determination are analyzed. Case studies showthat the level of wind farm transformer insulation aging is related to wind speeds, andthe rated capacity of wind farm transformer can be reduced greatly using the proposedoptimization model. In addition, a positive correlativity between the rated capacity ofwind farm transformer and its LCC is verified. That is, the transformer with minimalcapacity to meet the technique constraints is economically optimal.
According to the new structure of existing multiple generators or convertermodules in parallel in WECS, a new reliability index, annual expected energy loss(AEEL), is proposed and an analytical reliability model for this WECS is builtconsidering the effect of wind speeds to analyze the effects of different structures on thereliability performance of WECS. The results of case studies show that there is a largegap in essence of improving WECS reliability for two parallel structures.
Based on the principle that the responsibility of system unreliability is assigned tofailed components and proportional-sharing-principle, a reliability-tracing model ofWECS is proposed to quantify the contribution of each subassembly to the WECSunreliability indices. According to the identification and analysis of WECS weak partsbased on different reliability indices, the annual losses due to forced outage arerecommended to be the most reasonable index for weak part identification because itcan comprehensively reflect the WECS reliability and economic performance. At thesame time, a flow chart for tracing the WECS unreliability and identifying weak parts ispresented. Finally, the impacts of improving the subassembly reliability performance onthe losses are analyzed. The proposed method can provide useful information foroptimization design and theoretical foundation for decision-making of operation andmaintenance strategy. The case studies show that the gearbox, blade/pitch and generatorare weaker parts of a double-fed WECS, which should be given great attention in theprocesses of system design, operation and maintenance.
引文
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