中国地区碳不平等：测度及影响因素
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摘要
2010年中国成为全球的第二大经济体，但是能源和环境代价极其巨大。在经济增长的同时，资源和环境的双重约束日趋强化和收紧。根据美国能源部CO2信息分析中心（CDIAC）的数据，2005年中国成为全球CO2排放第一大国，2008年CO2排放量更是占到全球的23.55%，减排压力骤升，减排形势异常严峻。为此，2009年，中国政府主动承诺：到2020年，单位国内生产总值（GDP）CO2排放比2005年下降40%-45%。减排目标的实现与否很大程度上取决于如何分配地方的排放配额，这就意味着在CO2减排配额分配时会存在较大的区域间利益冲突。掌握历史和现今的地区碳排放差异就显得尤为重要。本文通过梳理收入不平等度量理论和工具理论，结合碳排放的公共品特性，在细分化石能源种类和考虑水泥生产排放源的基础上，较为全面测算了中国地区CO2排放量，从省际、东中西部、八大经济区域等三个视角，运用选用的不平等指标进行度量和分析，并对不平等指标进行了组群分解和因素分解，从Kaya恒等式和IPAT模型入手，构建了地区碳排放决定方程，基于该方程运用夏普里值方法进行了因素分解，探求中国地区CO2排放不平等的成因，为减排政策制定、地区配额分配提供实证支撑。
本文的主要特色首先体现在研究思路和研究方法上。本文的地区视角有三个：省际、东中西部及八大经济区域，囊括了对中国大陆的主流地区划分方法，使得分析更为全面、研究视野更为宽广；同时，本文对碳排放的分析并不限于碳排放密度（人均碳排放），将研究对象拓展到了碳排放强度（单位GDP碳排放），并对两个研究对象综合分析。研究方法采用规范分析和实证分析相结合的思路，运用了多种分析技术，碳不平等度量基础理论中运用了规范分析和一般化的统计方法，地区碳不平等分析中运用了不平等指标的组群分解技术，地区碳排放决定方程中运用了多种面板计量经济学方法，地区碳不平等分解中运用了夏普里值分解方法等等，对中国地区碳不平等的测度和影响因素的定量化分析，为减排政策制定和评估提供依据。
本文的创新点主要体现在：
（1）国内外关于碳不平等的研究多集中于跨国层面，针对中国地区碳排放不平等的研究较为零碎且缺乏系统性。本文从传统不平等的测度的基础理论出发，厘清不平等度量中关键的概念（如分配、排序、占优等），梳理不平等度量的统计方法基础，重申不平等度量指标必须遵循的5大公理，并结合碳排放的公共品特性，系统分析收入不平等指标用于地区碳排放的适用性，并比较各不平等指标的优缺点，提出应从碳洛伦茨曲线出发，综合多个不平等指标进行地区碳不平等的测度和分析。
（2）关于中国地区碳排放的测算，并无官方权威的方法，学界也莫衷一是。即使测度方法采用了国际上通行的IPCC方法，以往研究选择化石能源种类较少，对其他碳排放源的考虑相对不够。本文利用“地区能源平衡表（实物量）”搜集了在所有纳入中国能源统计中的化石能源及其制品种类，并考虑水泥生产过程带来的碳排放，力求中国地区碳排放的原始数据更为准确。
（3）以往研究碳排放的影响因素的理论分析框架比较凌乱，本文将碳排放影响因素的分析框架归纳为Kaya恒等式和IPAT模型（包括其衍生出来的STIRPAT模型），以这两个分析框架为基础，综合脱钩指数和碳排放库兹涅茨曲线（CKC）等两种方法重点分析了地区经济发展水平和碳排放之间的密切联系，构建了地区碳排放决定方程，并通过静态面板模型（双向固定效应模型）和动态面板模型（Blundell–Bond模型）等两种计量方法估计出了该方程。
（4）国内外文献对碳排放的分解，多是基于其影响因素模型（如Kaya恒等式），并有成熟的分解技术（如LMDI），但对碳不平等的分解研究相对欠缺。即使有零星的研究，也多集中于不平等指数的组群分解，并未涉及碳排放的影响因素。本文将Kaya恒等式和IPAT模型与碳不平等指标分解技术相结合，以上文得出的碳排放决定方程为基础，通过成熟的夏普里（Shapley）值不平等指标分解方法，对中国碳不平等进行因素分解，探求中国地区碳不平等各因素的重要程度及其成因。
China has become the world's second largest economy in2010, but the energy andenvironmental costs are enormous. With economic growth, the dual constraints ofresources and the environment have become increasingly strengthening and tightening.China has become the world's carbon dioxide emissions superpower in2005and itsemissions accounted for23.55%of the global in2008according to United StatesDepartment of Energy Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). Chinahas a swells pressure to reduce emissions, and its emission reduction situation isextremely severe. In2009Chinese Government, therefore, commitment to the initiative:,the unit of gross domestic production (GDP) carbon dioxide emissions decreased by40%-45%by2020than in2005. How to allocate local emissions quotas is the key towhether to achieve emission reduction targets. This means that there will be a bigconflict of interest between regions for carbon dioxide emissions quota allocation. Thus,it is particularly important to grasp the historical and present-day regional carbonemissions differences. This paper made a pectination to income inequality measuretheory and analysis tools, combined with public goods characteristics of carbonemissions, and selected inequality indicators; had a more comprehensive estimate ofregional carbon dioxide emissions in China on the basic of subdividing further fossilenergy types and considering the source of emissions of cement production; measuredand analyzed regional carbon inequality via selected indicators, and inequalityindicators group decomposition from the three perspectives of provincial-level,East-central-west, and the eight economic regions; built regional carbon emissionsdecision equation from Kaya identity and IPAT model, decomposed regional carboninequality based on the equation by Shapley value method and explored the causes ofinequality in carbon dioxide emissions in China; developed regional quota allocation toprovide empirical support for emission reduction policies.
The main features of this paper are first reflected in the research ideas and researchmethods. There are three regional perspectives: provincial-level, East-central-west, andthe eight economic regions, which include the mainstream geographical of China, and itmake the analysis more comprehensive, broader research vision. Meanwhile, theanalysis of carbon emissions is not limited to carbon density (per capita carbonemissions), this study expand to carbon emissions intensity (per unit GDP carbon emissions) on a comprehensive analysis of the two subjects. Research methods is acombination of the idea of normative analysis and empirical analysis and integrated avariety of analytical techniques: normative analysis and generalized statistical methodson basic theory of carbon inequality measure, group decomposition of regional carboninequality indicators, a variety of panel econometric methods in regional carbonemissions equation, and Shapley value factor decomposition method in the causes ofregional carbon inequality. This paper quantitatively analysis to measure andinfluencing factors of carbon inequality in China by these methods, and provides thebasis for emission reduction policy formulation and evaluation.
The main creative points lie in below:
(1) Research on carbon inequality at home and abroad mainly focus on thetransnational level, literatures on China are more fragmented and lack systematicinequality research for carbon emissions. This paper start from the basic theory oftraditional inequality measure theory, clarify the key concepts in the inequality measure,such as distribution, ordering, dominance, etc., combing the basis of the inequalitymeasure statistical methods and reiterating five axioms of inequality measure thatindicators must follow, in considering public goods characteristics of carbon dioxideemissions. It make a systematic analysis of income inequality indicators forapplicability of regional carbon emissions, and compare the advantages anddisadvantages of each inequality indicators, propose that carbon Lorenz curve should bea start and integrated multiple inequality indicators for measure and analysis of regionalcarbon inequality in China.
(2) There is no official authority method on how to impute carbon emissions inChina, and scholars have not reached a consensus. Although measure method is IPCCmethod that is internationally accepted, previous studies incline to select less fossilenergy types and relatively consider fewer sources of carbon emissions. In this paper,the regional energy balance (physical quantity) is exploited by collecting all part ofChina's energy statistics on the fossil energy and its products types, considering thecarbon emissions of cement production process. Thus, we can get more accurateregional carbon emissions raw data.
(3) Theoretical analytical framework in most literatures, which is applied to studythe impact of carbon emissions factors, seems messy. This paper summarized as Kayaidentity and the IPAT model, including the derived STIRPAT model, on carbonemissions impact factors analysis framework. Based on these two analytical framework, we integrate decoupling index and Carbon Kuznets curve (CKC) to focus on analysis ofthe close link between the level of economic development and carbon emissions, buildthe equation of the decision of the regional carbon emissions, and estimate the equationby static panel model (two-way fixed effects model) and dynamic panel model(Blundell-Bond model).
(4) Domestic and international literatures decomposed carbon dioxide emissionsmostly based on the impact factor model, such as Kaya identity, by maturedecomposition techniques, such as LMDI. But there are a few of researchers whichfocus on decomposition of carbon inequality. These sporadic studies concentrated groupdecomposition of the inequality indicators rather than the impact of carbon emissionsfactors. This paper combines Kaya identity and IPAT model, based on carbon emissionsdecision equation above, with carbon decomposition technique, decompose regionalcarbon inequality indicators for impact factors via mature Shapley value in order to thedegree of importance of each factor of China regional carbon inequality and its causes.
本文的主要特色首先体现在研究思路和研究方法上。本文的地区视角有三个：省际、东中西部及八大经济区域，囊括了对中国大陆的主流地区划分方法，使得分析更为全面、研究视野更为宽广；同时，本文对碳排放的分析并不限于碳排放密度（人均碳排放），将研究对象拓展到了碳排放强度（单位GDP碳排放），并对两个研究对象综合分析。研究方法采用规范分析和实证分析相结合的思路，运用了多种分析技术，碳不平等度量基础理论中运用了规范分析和一般化的统计方法，地区碳不平等分析中运用了不平等指标的组群分解技术，地区碳排放决定方程中运用了多种面板计量经济学方法，地区碳不平等分解中运用了夏普里值分解方法等等，对中国地区碳不平等的测度和影响因素的定量化分析，为减排政策制定和评估提供依据。
本文的创新点主要体现在：
（1）国内外关于碳不平等的研究多集中于跨国层面，针对中国地区碳排放不平等的研究较为零碎且缺乏系统性。本文从传统不平等的测度的基础理论出发，厘清不平等度量中关键的概念（如分配、排序、占优等），梳理不平等度量的统计方法基础，重申不平等度量指标必须遵循的5大公理，并结合碳排放的公共品特性，系统分析收入不平等指标用于地区碳排放的适用性，并比较各不平等指标的优缺点，提出应从碳洛伦茨曲线出发，综合多个不平等指标进行地区碳不平等的测度和分析。
（2）关于中国地区碳排放的测算，并无官方权威的方法，学界也莫衷一是。即使测度方法采用了国际上通行的IPCC方法，以往研究选择化石能源种类较少，对其他碳排放源的考虑相对不够。本文利用“地区能源平衡表（实物量）”搜集了在所有纳入中国能源统计中的化石能源及其制品种类，并考虑水泥生产过程带来的碳排放，力求中国地区碳排放的原始数据更为准确。
（3）以往研究碳排放的影响因素的理论分析框架比较凌乱，本文将碳排放影响因素的分析框架归纳为Kaya恒等式和IPAT模型（包括其衍生出来的STIRPAT模型），以这两个分析框架为基础，综合脱钩指数和碳排放库兹涅茨曲线（CKC）等两种方法重点分析了地区经济发展水平和碳排放之间的密切联系，构建了地区碳排放决定方程，并通过静态面板模型（双向固定效应模型）和动态面板模型（Blundell–Bond模型）等两种计量方法估计出了该方程。
（4）国内外文献对碳排放的分解，多是基于其影响因素模型（如Kaya恒等式），并有成熟的分解技术（如LMDI），但对碳不平等的分解研究相对欠缺。即使有零星的研究，也多集中于不平等指数的组群分解，并未涉及碳排放的影响因素。本文将Kaya恒等式和IPAT模型与碳不平等指标分解技术相结合，以上文得出的碳排放决定方程为基础，通过成熟的夏普里（Shapley）值不平等指标分解方法，对中国碳不平等进行因素分解，探求中国地区碳不平等各因素的重要程度及其成因。
China has become the world's second largest economy in2010, but the energy andenvironmental costs are enormous. With economic growth, the dual constraints ofresources and the environment have become increasingly strengthening and tightening.China has become the world's carbon dioxide emissions superpower in2005and itsemissions accounted for23.55%of the global in2008according to United StatesDepartment of Energy Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). Chinahas a swells pressure to reduce emissions, and its emission reduction situation isextremely severe. In2009Chinese Government, therefore, commitment to the initiative:,the unit of gross domestic production (GDP) carbon dioxide emissions decreased by40%-45%by2020than in2005. How to allocate local emissions quotas is the key towhether to achieve emission reduction targets. This means that there will be a bigconflict of interest between regions for carbon dioxide emissions quota allocation. Thus,it is particularly important to grasp the historical and present-day regional carbonemissions differences. This paper made a pectination to income inequality measuretheory and analysis tools, combined with public goods characteristics of carbonemissions, and selected inequality indicators; had a more comprehensive estimate ofregional carbon dioxide emissions in China on the basic of subdividing further fossilenergy types and considering the source of emissions of cement production; measuredand analyzed regional carbon inequality via selected indicators, and inequalityindicators group decomposition from the three perspectives of provincial-level,East-central-west, and the eight economic regions; built regional carbon emissionsdecision equation from Kaya identity and IPAT model, decomposed regional carboninequality based on the equation by Shapley value method and explored the causes ofinequality in carbon dioxide emissions in China; developed regional quota allocation toprovide empirical support for emission reduction policies.
The main features of this paper are first reflected in the research ideas and researchmethods. There are three regional perspectives: provincial-level, East-central-west, andthe eight economic regions, which include the mainstream geographical of China, and itmake the analysis more comprehensive, broader research vision. Meanwhile, theanalysis of carbon emissions is not limited to carbon density (per capita carbonemissions), this study expand to carbon emissions intensity (per unit GDP carbon emissions) on a comprehensive analysis of the two subjects. Research methods is acombination of the idea of normative analysis and empirical analysis and integrated avariety of analytical techniques: normative analysis and generalized statistical methodson basic theory of carbon inequality measure, group decomposition of regional carboninequality indicators, a variety of panel econometric methods in regional carbonemissions equation, and Shapley value factor decomposition method in the causes ofregional carbon inequality. This paper quantitatively analysis to measure andinfluencing factors of carbon inequality in China by these methods, and provides thebasis for emission reduction policy formulation and evaluation.
The main creative points lie in below:
(1) Research on carbon inequality at home and abroad mainly focus on thetransnational level, literatures on China are more fragmented and lack systematicinequality research for carbon emissions. This paper start from the basic theory oftraditional inequality measure theory, clarify the key concepts in the inequality measure,such as distribution, ordering, dominance, etc., combing the basis of the inequalitymeasure statistical methods and reiterating five axioms of inequality measure thatindicators must follow, in considering public goods characteristics of carbon dioxideemissions. It make a systematic analysis of income inequality indicators forapplicability of regional carbon emissions, and compare the advantages anddisadvantages of each inequality indicators, propose that carbon Lorenz curve should bea start and integrated multiple inequality indicators for measure and analysis of regionalcarbon inequality in China.
(2) There is no official authority method on how to impute carbon emissions inChina, and scholars have not reached a consensus. Although measure method is IPCCmethod that is internationally accepted, previous studies incline to select less fossilenergy types and relatively consider fewer sources of carbon emissions. In this paper,the regional energy balance (physical quantity) is exploited by collecting all part ofChina's energy statistics on the fossil energy and its products types, considering thecarbon emissions of cement production process. Thus, we can get more accurateregional carbon emissions raw data.
(3) Theoretical analytical framework in most literatures, which is applied to studythe impact of carbon emissions factors, seems messy. This paper summarized as Kayaidentity and the IPAT model, including the derived STIRPAT model, on carbonemissions impact factors analysis framework. Based on these two analytical framework, we integrate decoupling index and Carbon Kuznets curve (CKC) to focus on analysis ofthe close link between the level of economic development and carbon emissions, buildthe equation of the decision of the regional carbon emissions, and estimate the equationby static panel model (two-way fixed effects model) and dynamic panel model(Blundell-Bond model).
(4) Domestic and international literatures decomposed carbon dioxide emissionsmostly based on the impact factor model, such as Kaya identity, by maturedecomposition techniques, such as LMDI. But there are a few of researchers whichfocus on decomposition of carbon inequality. These sporadic studies concentrated groupdecomposition of the inequality indicators rather than the impact of carbon emissionsfactors. This paper combines Kaya identity and IPAT model, based on carbon emissionsdecision equation above, with carbon decomposition technique, decompose regionalcarbon inequality indicators for impact factors via mature Shapley value in order to thedegree of importance of each factor of China regional carbon inequality and its causes.
引文
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