城市土地一级开发项目可行性评价研究
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摘要
由于城市发展宏观背景的制约和城市土地一级开发活动自身特点的作用,加之城市土地一级开发在目前中国城市发展中所处的特定发展阶段,使其成为现代化进程中重要的课题之一。在城市土地一级开发过程中,项目的投资决策是土地一级开发最基本、最关键的阶段之一,决策的正确与否直接关系到项目成败,而项目可行与否的判定对投资决策有决定性的影响。鉴于国内城市土地一级开发还处于起步和探索阶段,无论在理论上还是实践上都缺乏系统与深入的研究,加之国内对城市土地一级开发项目前可行性评价方面的研究和重视又十分有限,往往只重视建设项目后评价的一般理论,而忽视了项目前可行性评价的重要性。目前急需尽快研究如何建立科学、合理的项目前可行性评价指标体系,以全面评价城市土地一级开发项目的整体可行程度,为决策者提供充分、可靠的决策信息,把项目投资风险降到最低程度,促进土地资源可持续利用与社会经济可持续发展。研究城市土地一级开发项目前的评价,对于项目今后的进一步发展具有重要意义。
本文综合运用了市场营销学、经济学、财务管理学与模糊数学等多种学科的理论和方法,首先,在城市土地一级开发基本理论的基础上,主要从环境、经济、社会效益三个影响因子出发,建立可行性评价的指标体系。其次,运用AHM与未确知综合评价模型,对北京崇文区西革新里危改地块土地一级开发项目进行了可行性实例论证,对前面章节所建立的评价体系进行了应用。最后,根据评价结果判定项目可行程度,对项目的未来发展趋势进行预测,对影响项目的不利因子提出规避建议。需特别指出的是,通常“项目前”的案例为未实施的项目。本文为研究方便,所采用的是已实施的案例,其实施结果可以对可行性评价结论进行准确性验证,同时证明所建立评价体系的适用性。
本文的重点在项目可行性评价部分,首先利用AHM球赛模型求出城市土地一级开发项目可行性评价的各指标重要性权重;然后利用未确知综合评价模型对此项目进行综合评价,得出此项目的可行性程度。把此模型运用在城市土地一级开发项目可行性评价中,有一定的应用创新价值,为现在的城市土地一级开发项目可行性分析引进了一种新的方法。
As the macroeconomic background of urban development and the own characteristics of urban land development activities, then, an urban land development in China's current urban development which the particular stage of development, make it become one of the important topics in modernization process. In an urban land development process, the project investment decision-making is a land most basic and most crucial stage. the correct decisions will have a direct bearing on the success or failure of the project, and the project viable or not the judge right investment decisions will have a decisive impact. As urban land development is still in the beginning and exploration. whenever in theory or practice be lack of in-depth study, Whatmore, before taking projects is very limited. a pair of urban land development the evaluation of the feasibility study and attention, often only pay attention to post-project evaluation of the general theory, but ignored the pre-project feasibility evaluations. At present, urgently need to expeditiously study how to establish a scientific and rational pre-project feasibility evaluation system in a comprehensive evaluation of urban land development projects an overall feasibility, for policy makers to provide adequate and reliable information for decision-making. Project investment risks to the minimum, and promote sustainable use of land resources and sustainable socio-economic development. A study of urban land development projects before the evaluation of future projects for the further development of great significance.
To analyze the feasibility evaluation study of Primary land development in city ,this article has utilized the many kinds of disciplines theory and the method of the market marketing study, the economic, the financial control study with the fuzzy mathematics and so on. Firstly, From the aspects of economy and finance, Environment , Ecosystem performance and so on, this article has carried on the feasible example proof of primary land development in Beijing some land parcel land, established the theoretical model to application and proof the front chapter. Pointed out specially, "front case of projects" have not been put into effect generally. For the main body of the paper studying, we take the case being to be put into effect already convenient. The result of practicing can verify estimating that the conclusion of the feasibility accuracy, testify the serviceability of setting evaluation system at the same time.
This article key analyzes and appraises the part of the project feasibility evaluation study, First, using analytic mierarachincal model AHM to appraisal various targets important weight extracts of the feasibility evaluation study of Primary land development in city, than, using unascertained comprehensive evaluation. Model to carry on the synthesis appraisal to obtains the feasible degree of this project. This model utilizates the feasibility evaluation study of Primary land development in city, has a certain application and innovation value, presented new method about the feasibility evaluation study and appraisal of Primary land development in city.
本文综合运用了市场营销学、经济学、财务管理学与模糊数学等多种学科的理论和方法,首先,在城市土地一级开发基本理论的基础上,主要从环境、经济、社会效益三个影响因子出发,建立可行性评价的指标体系。其次,运用AHM与未确知综合评价模型,对北京崇文区西革新里危改地块土地一级开发项目进行了可行性实例论证,对前面章节所建立的评价体系进行了应用。最后,根据评价结果判定项目可行程度,对项目的未来发展趋势进行预测,对影响项目的不利因子提出规避建议。需特别指出的是,通常“项目前”的案例为未实施的项目。本文为研究方便,所采用的是已实施的案例,其实施结果可以对可行性评价结论进行准确性验证,同时证明所建立评价体系的适用性。
本文的重点在项目可行性评价部分,首先利用AHM球赛模型求出城市土地一级开发项目可行性评价的各指标重要性权重;然后利用未确知综合评价模型对此项目进行综合评价,得出此项目的可行性程度。把此模型运用在城市土地一级开发项目可行性评价中,有一定的应用创新价值,为现在的城市土地一级开发项目可行性分析引进了一种新的方法。
As the macroeconomic background of urban development and the own characteristics of urban land development activities, then, an urban land development in China's current urban development which the particular stage of development, make it become one of the important topics in modernization process. In an urban land development process, the project investment decision-making is a land most basic and most crucial stage. the correct decisions will have a direct bearing on the success or failure of the project, and the project viable or not the judge right investment decisions will have a decisive impact. As urban land development is still in the beginning and exploration. whenever in theory or practice be lack of in-depth study, Whatmore, before taking projects is very limited. a pair of urban land development the evaluation of the feasibility study and attention, often only pay attention to post-project evaluation of the general theory, but ignored the pre-project feasibility evaluations. At present, urgently need to expeditiously study how to establish a scientific and rational pre-project feasibility evaluation system in a comprehensive evaluation of urban land development projects an overall feasibility, for policy makers to provide adequate and reliable information for decision-making. Project investment risks to the minimum, and promote sustainable use of land resources and sustainable socio-economic development. A study of urban land development projects before the evaluation of future projects for the further development of great significance.
To analyze the feasibility evaluation study of Primary land development in city ,this article has utilized the many kinds of disciplines theory and the method of the market marketing study, the economic, the financial control study with the fuzzy mathematics and so on. Firstly, From the aspects of economy and finance, Environment , Ecosystem performance and so on, this article has carried on the feasible example proof of primary land development in Beijing some land parcel land, established the theoretical model to application and proof the front chapter. Pointed out specially, "front case of projects" have not been put into effect generally. For the main body of the paper studying, we take the case being to be put into effect already convenient. The result of practicing can verify estimating that the conclusion of the feasibility accuracy, testify the serviceability of setting evaluation system at the same time.
This article key analyzes and appraises the part of the project feasibility evaluation study, First, using analytic mierarachincal model AHM to appraisal various targets important weight extracts of the feasibility evaluation study of Primary land development in city, than, using unascertained comprehensive evaluation. Model to carry on the synthesis appraisal to obtains the feasible degree of this project. This model utilizates the feasibility evaluation study of Primary land development in city, has a certain application and innovation value, presented new method about the feasibility evaluation study and appraisal of Primary land development in city.
引文
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[7]汤炎非.可行性评价研究与投资决策.武汉:武汉大学出版社,1998
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