港口群腹地出口集装箱生成量影响因素及模型研究
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摘要
伴随外向型经济的崛起，中国沿海地区形成了全球最活跃的、以共享腹地为特征的港口群国际物流系统。集装箱运输作为一种新的运输方式的出现，对整个运输业及区域外贸发展产生了深远的影响。意识到港口集装箱业对促进产业转移和带动港口所在城市及其辐射区域产业链发展的重要作用，很多地方政府竞相兴建集装箱港口，期望以此带动区域经济及贸易的发展，从而导致了集装箱港口产能过剩。尽管港口是国际物流的关键节点，在出口贸易中扮演重要角色，但仅通过大规模港口建设是无法达到预期效果的。集装箱国际物流是一项系统工程，须将其作为一个整体加以考虑分析。因此，本文从集装箱国际物流系统的角度建立影响港口群腹地出口集装箱生成量因素的模型，分析影响港口群腹地出口集装箱生成量的因素，以期为集装箱国际物流系统的建设和发展提供可借鉴的方法。广东省拥有中国沿海地区最活跃的港口群及其腹地产业，因此本文以广东省为例进行实证研究以验证所建立的港口群腹地出口集装箱生成量模型的有效性。
出口集装箱生成量受进口和出口两方面因素的影响。进口地对出口地产品的需求导致了出口地集装箱国际物流系统的建设和发展。所以本文通过对集装箱国际物流系统的分析，分别从出口地和进口地两个方面建立进口地进口集装箱生成量模型和出口地出口集装箱生成量模型，并通过这些模型对影响港口群腹地出口集装箱生成量的因素进行分析。
进口地实证分析部分选取与广东省有贸易往来的33个国家为样本，应用所建立的出口地出口集装箱生成量模型采用面板数据模型进行分析。首先分析所有33个样本国家。为了体现不同地区国家的特点，又分别对亚非国家和欧洲国家进行分析。实证分析结果显示所建立的模型对分析进口地出口集装箱生成量影响因素是有效的。进口地出口集装箱生成量模型对广东省的实证分析结果显示：人民币升值使中国产品出口价格升高，对不同地区国家产生的影响是不同的。欧美国家经济发达，人民生活水平高，人民币升值对这些国家进口广东省的产品影响很小，所以对这些国家需求广东省出口集装箱生成量的影响并不显著，而对亚非地区国家影响非常显著。广东省对全部样本国家的出口集装箱生成量潜力分析显示：马来西亚、印度、阿联酋、埃及、南非、英国、德国、荷兰、瑞士、巴西、美国等国家对广东省产品需求达到饱和状态；菲律宾、泰国、印尼、阿拉伯、比利时、俄罗斯、加拿大、日本、韩国等国家对广东省的产品需求还有提升的潜力。
出口地实证分析部分选取广东省21个城市为样本，应用所建立的出口地出口集装箱生成量模型采用面板数据模型进行分析。首先对所有21个样本城市进行研究。为了体现不同区域城市特点，又分别对珠三角城市和非珠三角城市进行分析。实证分析结果显示所该模型对分析影响出口地出口集装箱生成量因素是有效的。出口地出口集装箱生成量模型对广东省的实证分析结果显示：广东省内物流基础设施建设应朝着体系化方向发展，物流服务水平需要进一步提高。非珠三角地区城市应充分发挥自身位置带来的物流优势，以促进出口贸易的增长；东盟国家与中国需共同努力改变东盟国家及其与中国衔接地区的物流基础设施建设相对滞后的现状，以促进广东与东盟各国双边经贸活动的深入开展；新加坡及香港这样的自由贸易国家和地区的转口贸易发展促进了广东省的产品出口。广东应积极考虑建立自由贸易港以发展转口贸易。
With the rise of export-oriented economy, the most active international port grouplogistics system with the feature of sharing hinterlands has formed in China’s coastalregions.The emergence of container transportation as a new mode has a profound influence onthe whole transportation industry as well as the regional foreign trade development.Conscious of the important role which port container industry has played in promotingindustry transfer as well as the development of port city industrial chains and their radiationregions, many local governments have raced to construct container ports in order to promoteregional economic and trade development, which has led to excess container port capacity.Although port is international logistics key link which plays an important part in export trade,the desired effects cannot be achieved merely by large-scale port construction, for thecontainer international logistics is a system engineering which should be taken intoconsideration as a whole.Thus in this paper the models of the factors which have influencedon port group hinerland export container volume are established at the angle of the containerinternational logistics system. The factors which have influenced on port hinterland exportcontainer volume are analyzed based on the models so that referable methods can be putforward for the construction and development of the container international logistics system.A case of Guangdong Province is studied in this article so that the effectiveness of theestablished port group hinerland export container volume models can be verified, as there arethe most active group ports and group port hinterland industry in China's coastal regions inGuangdong Province.
Export container volume is influenced by the two factors of import and export. That is tosay, the importing region demand for the exporting region product contributes to theconstruction and development of the exporting region container international logistics system.Thus in this paper with the analysis of the container international logistics system, anexporting region export container volume model as well as an importing region importcontainer volume model is established in the aspects of exporting region and importing regionrespectively. The factors which have influences on port group hinerland export container volume are analyzed based on the two models.
Thirty-three countries which have trade relation with Guangdong Province are selected asthe samples to be analyzed for importing region empirical analysis with a panel data model.First, all the thirty-three samples are analyzed. Second, Asian and African countries andEuropean countries are analyzed respectively so that the characteristics of the different partcountries can be reflected. The empirical analysis results show that the established model iseffective on the analysis of the influencing factors of the importing region on exporting regionexport container volume. The empirical analysis results of Guangdong Province with theimporting region export container volume model show that the price rise of the Chineseexport products caused by the RMB appreciation has different-level effects on the differentpart countries.The RMB appreciation has insignificant effects on the European and Americancountries’ demand for Guangdong Province export container volume, as the RMBappreciation has slight effects on the import from Guangdong Province to these countries dueto their well-developed economic and high-level life. However, the RMB appreciation hasvery significant effects on the Asian and African countries’ demand for Guangdong exportcontainer volume. The analysis of Guangdong Province export container volume potential toall the thirty-three countries show that the following countries’ demand for Guangdongproducts is in a saturated state, including Malaysia, India, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt,South Africa, UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Brazil and the United States,while the following countries’ demand for Guangdong products is potential, including thePhilippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Arab, Belgium, Russia, Canada, Japan and South Korea.
Twenty-one cities of Guangdong Province are selected as samples to be analyzed forexporting region empirical analysis with a panel data mode. First, all the twenty-one samplesare analyzed. Second, the samples of the Pearl River delta cities and the Non-pearl River deltacities are analyzed respectively so that the characteristics of the different region cities can bereflected.The empirical analysis results show that the established model is effective on theanalysis of the influencing factors of the exporting region export container volume.Theempirical analysis results of Guangdong Province with the exporting region export containervolume model show that the Guangdong Province logistics infrastructure should beconstructed in the systematized direction. In addition, logistics service need to be improved.The Non-pearl River delta cities should make full use of their logistics advantagefrom their geographical position to promote their export trade growth.It is necessary that theAsean countries and China should work together to change the current situation that thelogistics infrastructure construction of the Asean countries and the neighboring regionsbetween them and China has lagged relatively so that the bilateral economic-and-tradeactivities can be developed further. Entrepot trade of the free trade country and the free traderegion, including Singapore and Hong Kong, has promoted Guangdong Province productexport. The establishment of a free trade port in Guangdong Province should be considered inorder to develop entrepot trade.
出口集装箱生成量受进口和出口两方面因素的影响。进口地对出口地产品的需求导致了出口地集装箱国际物流系统的建设和发展。所以本文通过对集装箱国际物流系统的分析，分别从出口地和进口地两个方面建立进口地进口集装箱生成量模型和出口地出口集装箱生成量模型，并通过这些模型对影响港口群腹地出口集装箱生成量的因素进行分析。
进口地实证分析部分选取与广东省有贸易往来的33个国家为样本，应用所建立的出口地出口集装箱生成量模型采用面板数据模型进行分析。首先分析所有33个样本国家。为了体现不同地区国家的特点，又分别对亚非国家和欧洲国家进行分析。实证分析结果显示所建立的模型对分析进口地出口集装箱生成量影响因素是有效的。进口地出口集装箱生成量模型对广东省的实证分析结果显示：人民币升值使中国产品出口价格升高，对不同地区国家产生的影响是不同的。欧美国家经济发达，人民生活水平高，人民币升值对这些国家进口广东省的产品影响很小，所以对这些国家需求广东省出口集装箱生成量的影响并不显著，而对亚非地区国家影响非常显著。广东省对全部样本国家的出口集装箱生成量潜力分析显示：马来西亚、印度、阿联酋、埃及、南非、英国、德国、荷兰、瑞士、巴西、美国等国家对广东省产品需求达到饱和状态；菲律宾、泰国、印尼、阿拉伯、比利时、俄罗斯、加拿大、日本、韩国等国家对广东省的产品需求还有提升的潜力。
出口地实证分析部分选取广东省21个城市为样本，应用所建立的出口地出口集装箱生成量模型采用面板数据模型进行分析。首先对所有21个样本城市进行研究。为了体现不同区域城市特点，又分别对珠三角城市和非珠三角城市进行分析。实证分析结果显示所该模型对分析影响出口地出口集装箱生成量因素是有效的。出口地出口集装箱生成量模型对广东省的实证分析结果显示：广东省内物流基础设施建设应朝着体系化方向发展，物流服务水平需要进一步提高。非珠三角地区城市应充分发挥自身位置带来的物流优势，以促进出口贸易的增长；东盟国家与中国需共同努力改变东盟国家及其与中国衔接地区的物流基础设施建设相对滞后的现状，以促进广东与东盟各国双边经贸活动的深入开展；新加坡及香港这样的自由贸易国家和地区的转口贸易发展促进了广东省的产品出口。广东应积极考虑建立自由贸易港以发展转口贸易。
With the rise of export-oriented economy, the most active international port grouplogistics system with the feature of sharing hinterlands has formed in China’s coastalregions.The emergence of container transportation as a new mode has a profound influence onthe whole transportation industry as well as the regional foreign trade development.Conscious of the important role which port container industry has played in promotingindustry transfer as well as the development of port city industrial chains and their radiationregions, many local governments have raced to construct container ports in order to promoteregional economic and trade development, which has led to excess container port capacity.Although port is international logistics key link which plays an important part in export trade,the desired effects cannot be achieved merely by large-scale port construction, for thecontainer international logistics is a system engineering which should be taken intoconsideration as a whole.Thus in this paper the models of the factors which have influencedon port group hinerland export container volume are established at the angle of the containerinternational logistics system. The factors which have influenced on port hinterland exportcontainer volume are analyzed based on the models so that referable methods can be putforward for the construction and development of the container international logistics system.A case of Guangdong Province is studied in this article so that the effectiveness of theestablished port group hinerland export container volume models can be verified, as there arethe most active group ports and group port hinterland industry in China's coastal regions inGuangdong Province.
Export container volume is influenced by the two factors of import and export. That is tosay, the importing region demand for the exporting region product contributes to theconstruction and development of the exporting region container international logistics system.Thus in this paper with the analysis of the container international logistics system, anexporting region export container volume model as well as an importing region importcontainer volume model is established in the aspects of exporting region and importing regionrespectively. The factors which have influences on port group hinerland export container volume are analyzed based on the two models.
Thirty-three countries which have trade relation with Guangdong Province are selected asthe samples to be analyzed for importing region empirical analysis with a panel data model.First, all the thirty-three samples are analyzed. Second, Asian and African countries andEuropean countries are analyzed respectively so that the characteristics of the different partcountries can be reflected. The empirical analysis results show that the established model iseffective on the analysis of the influencing factors of the importing region on exporting regionexport container volume. The empirical analysis results of Guangdong Province with theimporting region export container volume model show that the price rise of the Chineseexport products caused by the RMB appreciation has different-level effects on the differentpart countries.The RMB appreciation has insignificant effects on the European and Americancountries’ demand for Guangdong Province export container volume, as the RMBappreciation has slight effects on the import from Guangdong Province to these countries dueto their well-developed economic and high-level life. However, the RMB appreciation hasvery significant effects on the Asian and African countries’ demand for Guangdong exportcontainer volume. The analysis of Guangdong Province export container volume potential toall the thirty-three countries show that the following countries’ demand for Guangdongproducts is in a saturated state, including Malaysia, India, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt,South Africa, UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Brazil and the United States,while the following countries’ demand for Guangdong products is potential, including thePhilippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Arab, Belgium, Russia, Canada, Japan and South Korea.
Twenty-one cities of Guangdong Province are selected as samples to be analyzed forexporting region empirical analysis with a panel data mode. First, all the twenty-one samplesare analyzed. Second, the samples of the Pearl River delta cities and the Non-pearl River deltacities are analyzed respectively so that the characteristics of the different region cities can bereflected.The empirical analysis results show that the established model is effective on theanalysis of the influencing factors of the exporting region export container volume.Theempirical analysis results of Guangdong Province with the exporting region export containervolume model show that the Guangdong Province logistics infrastructure should beconstructed in the systematized direction. In addition, logistics service need to be improved.The Non-pearl River delta cities should make full use of their logistics advantagefrom their geographical position to promote their export trade growth.It is necessary that theAsean countries and China should work together to change the current situation that thelogistics infrastructure construction of the Asean countries and the neighboring regionsbetween them and China has lagged relatively so that the bilateral economic-and-tradeactivities can be developed further. Entrepot trade of the free trade country and the free traderegion, including Singapore and Hong Kong, has promoted Guangdong Province productexport. The establishment of a free trade port in Guangdong Province should be considered inorder to develop entrepot trade.
引文
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