人民币汇率变动的农产品出口流向分布效应研究
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摘要
自2005年7月21日起,我国政府将原来“紧盯美元单一货币的有管理的”浮动人民币汇率形成机制调整为以“市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币"进行调节、有管理的浮动人民币汇率形成机制。人民币汇率的形成更加富有弹性。在人民币对美元、欧元及日元等世界主要货币汇率发生变动的同时,我国农产品出口贸易也发生了一些变化。我国农产品出口总额由2005年的271.8亿美元上升到2011年的601.3亿美元1,年平均增长率达到14.6%。伴随着农产品出口贸易总量的逐年增长,我国农产品出口区域分布及市场分布也发生了一些变化。人民币汇率变动是否会对我国农产品出口流向分布产生影响及何种形式的影响?这是本文研究的主要内容。
本文在对我国自改革开放以来的人民币汇率制度及加入WTO后我国农产品出口流向分布特征进行分析的基础上,在引力模型分析框架下对农产品出口区域分布与市场分布的影响因素进行了理论分析,进而使用2005年第三季度至2011年第四季度的季度数据实证分析了人民币汇率变动对我国农产品出口流向分布的影响。根据研究内容,全文共分为五部分：
第一部分内容包括本文第一章和第二章。主要就全文的研究背景及意义、研究目标及技术路线、相关概念界定及研究文献的总结与梳理等内容进行阐述,为全文的研究打下坚实的基础；
第二部分内容为本文第三章。主要对我国人民币汇率制度的历史沿革以及我国农产品出口流向分布等内容进行描述性分析并且总结其特征；
第三部分内容为理论分析,也就是本文第四章。主要是在引力模型分析框架下分析包括人民币汇率在内的影响我国农产品出口贸易流的因素、传导机制等内容并且建立了理论模型提出待检验的推论；
第四部分内容为实证分析,包括本文第五章与第六章。主要是以第四章中理论分析所构建的经调整的贸易引力模型为分析框架分别实证检验了人民币汇率变动对我国农产品出口区域分布以及对农产品出口市场分布的影响；
第五部分内容为全文的总结。
在本文的研究过程中,主要包括以下创新点：
首先,在研究视角方面,本文较为全面地研究了人民币汇率变动对我国农产品出口流向分布的影响,在研究内容上丰富了农产品贸易研究的范围,具有一定的新颖性；其次,在研究数据使用方面,与以往学者大多使用IMF(国际货币基金组织)或者BIS(国际清算银行)计算的人民币实际有效汇率不同,本文使用以我国农产品出口贸易额作为加权权数测算的农产品出口人民币实际有效汇率指数研究其对我国农产品出口流向分布影响的问题,在数据使用方面具有一定新意；最后,在研究方法应用方面,本文将引力模型的分析方法应用到对我国农产品出口流向分布的研究中,在一定程度上拓宽了引力模型的应用范围,在引力模型的应用上具有一定的新意。
研究后发现：首先,就农产品出口区域分布而言,我国农产品出口省市依然主要集中在东部地区,东中西地区农产品出口存在明显的地区性差异；就农产品出口市场分布而言,亚洲、北美洲及欧洲市场仍然是我国农产品出口主要市场。但是,日本、韩国等传统目的国市场所占份额正在下降,说明我国农产品出口市场在一定程度上得到了优化；其次,国外收入的增长总体上促进了我国农产品出口贸易流的增长,起到了积极的正面效应：再次,总体上,人民币汇率变动对我国农产品出口流向分布产生了一定的负面效应。对区域分布影响而言,人民币升值造成我国东部与中部地区及东部主要农产品出口省市农产品出口贸易流的减少,对西部地区农产品出口贸易流影响不明显。对市场分布影响而言,人民币升值使得我国对亚洲及欧洲农产品出口贸易流的减少,对多数国家农产品出口贸易流产生负面影响；最后,我国到亚洲及欧洲等国家或地区的距离对我国农产品出口贸易流产生了负面影响。
Since July21,2005, a significant adjustment of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism was made from the original"pegged currency managed floating RMB exchange rate formation mechanism"to"based on market supply and demand, reference to a basket of currencies" which is managed floating RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in China. The new formation of the RMB exchange rate is more flexible. The agricultural product export trade in China has undergone some changes in the process of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, the euro and the yen and other major world currency exchange rates change. China's total agricultural exports increased from27.18billion USD in2005to60.13billion USD in2011and the average annual growth rate is14.6%. China's exports of agricultural products trade flows distribution have been some changes when in the total export trade of agricultural products increased year by year. The distribution of agricultural products export flows include the export region distribution and export market distribution. Whether the RMB exchange rate changes will impact and what form of China's agricultural exports distribution? This is the main content of this paper.
In this paper, we analyzed the impact of RMB exchange rate on the distribution of agricultural products in china comprehensively from the theoretical and empirical aspects in the analysis of trade gravity model framework using the data of the first quarter of2005to the fourth quarter of2011as example based on the analysis of the evolution of the characteristics of the RMB exchange rate and the flow of the distribution of China's agricultural exports combined with the actual situation and needs. According to the research content, the paper is divided into five parts:
The first part includes the first chapter and the second chapter. The research background and significance, the research target and technical route, the definition of related concepts and research literature summary and combing the content are discussed in this part, laying a solid foundation for the following research foundation;
The second part is the third chapter. The main content of this part is descriptive analysis of historical evolution of China's exchange rate system of RMB and China's exports distribution of agricultural products;
The third part is theoretical analysis, which is the fourth chapter of this paper. This part mainly analyze the impact of China's agricultural exports factors including the RMB exchange rate and conduction mechanism under the framework of analysis of trade gravity model and establish the theoretical model proposed reasoning test;
The fourth part is empirical analysis, including the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter. This part are respectively empirical test of the RMB exchange rate change on the export region distribution of China's agricultural products and the distribution of export of agricultural products market effect on the basis of the theoretical analysis in the fourth chapter of the gravity model of trade adjustment as the analysis framework;
The fifth part is the summary of the whole paper.
This paper mainly includes the following innovative points:First, this paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate on the distribution of China's agricultural products export, enriching the research of trade in agricultural products in the range of the research content. It has a certain novelty; Secondly, the former scholars mostly use the real effective exchange rate of RMB calculated by IMF or BIS while this paper uses RMB real effective exchange rate index which is weighted by amount of agricultural products export to study the influence on the flow structure of export of China's agricultural products in the use of research data. It has some new ideas in data use; Finally, this paper applies the analysis method of gravity model to study the distribution of agricultural products in China in the application of research method and it broaden the scope of application of gravity model to a certain extent with some new ideas in the application of gravity model.
In this paper, the study found that:First, on the regional distribution of agricultural products export, China agricultural product export provinces and cities are still mainly concentrated in the eastern region, regional differences exist. On the distribution of agricultural products export market, Asia, North America and the European market is still the major market for exports of agricultural products in China. However, Japan, South Korea and other traditional destination market share is declining, indicating that China's agricultural products export market has been optimized to some extent; Secondly, the foreign income growth promoted the amount in China's exports of agricultural products and it has played a positive effect; Again, on the whole, the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on the export distribution of China's agricultural products. On the regional distribution, the appreciation of the RMB caused a decrease in eastern China and the central region and the eastern provinces of major agricultural products export of agricultural products, agricultural products export of western region is not obvious. On the market distribution, the appreciation of the RMB made the reduction of China's agricultural products exports to Asia and Europe and have a negative impact on the export of agricultural products in most countries; Finally, the distance had a negative impact on China's agricultural exports distribution.
本文在对我国自改革开放以来的人民币汇率制度及加入WTO后我国农产品出口流向分布特征进行分析的基础上,在引力模型分析框架下对农产品出口区域分布与市场分布的影响因素进行了理论分析,进而使用2005年第三季度至2011年第四季度的季度数据实证分析了人民币汇率变动对我国农产品出口流向分布的影响。根据研究内容,全文共分为五部分：
第一部分内容包括本文第一章和第二章。主要就全文的研究背景及意义、研究目标及技术路线、相关概念界定及研究文献的总结与梳理等内容进行阐述,为全文的研究打下坚实的基础；
第二部分内容为本文第三章。主要对我国人民币汇率制度的历史沿革以及我国农产品出口流向分布等内容进行描述性分析并且总结其特征；
第三部分内容为理论分析,也就是本文第四章。主要是在引力模型分析框架下分析包括人民币汇率在内的影响我国农产品出口贸易流的因素、传导机制等内容并且建立了理论模型提出待检验的推论；
第四部分内容为实证分析,包括本文第五章与第六章。主要是以第四章中理论分析所构建的经调整的贸易引力模型为分析框架分别实证检验了人民币汇率变动对我国农产品出口区域分布以及对农产品出口市场分布的影响；
第五部分内容为全文的总结。
在本文的研究过程中,主要包括以下创新点：
首先,在研究视角方面,本文较为全面地研究了人民币汇率变动对我国农产品出口流向分布的影响,在研究内容上丰富了农产品贸易研究的范围,具有一定的新颖性；其次,在研究数据使用方面,与以往学者大多使用IMF(国际货币基金组织)或者BIS(国际清算银行)计算的人民币实际有效汇率不同,本文使用以我国农产品出口贸易额作为加权权数测算的农产品出口人民币实际有效汇率指数研究其对我国农产品出口流向分布影响的问题,在数据使用方面具有一定新意；最后,在研究方法应用方面,本文将引力模型的分析方法应用到对我国农产品出口流向分布的研究中,在一定程度上拓宽了引力模型的应用范围,在引力模型的应用上具有一定的新意。
研究后发现：首先,就农产品出口区域分布而言,我国农产品出口省市依然主要集中在东部地区,东中西地区农产品出口存在明显的地区性差异；就农产品出口市场分布而言,亚洲、北美洲及欧洲市场仍然是我国农产品出口主要市场。但是,日本、韩国等传统目的国市场所占份额正在下降,说明我国农产品出口市场在一定程度上得到了优化；其次,国外收入的增长总体上促进了我国农产品出口贸易流的增长,起到了积极的正面效应：再次,总体上,人民币汇率变动对我国农产品出口流向分布产生了一定的负面效应。对区域分布影响而言,人民币升值造成我国东部与中部地区及东部主要农产品出口省市农产品出口贸易流的减少,对西部地区农产品出口贸易流影响不明显。对市场分布影响而言,人民币升值使得我国对亚洲及欧洲农产品出口贸易流的减少,对多数国家农产品出口贸易流产生负面影响；最后,我国到亚洲及欧洲等国家或地区的距离对我国农产品出口贸易流产生了负面影响。
Since July21,2005, a significant adjustment of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism was made from the original"pegged currency managed floating RMB exchange rate formation mechanism"to"based on market supply and demand, reference to a basket of currencies" which is managed floating RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in China. The new formation of the RMB exchange rate is more flexible. The agricultural product export trade in China has undergone some changes in the process of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, the euro and the yen and other major world currency exchange rates change. China's total agricultural exports increased from27.18billion USD in2005to60.13billion USD in2011and the average annual growth rate is14.6%. China's exports of agricultural products trade flows distribution have been some changes when in the total export trade of agricultural products increased year by year. The distribution of agricultural products export flows include the export region distribution and export market distribution. Whether the RMB exchange rate changes will impact and what form of China's agricultural exports distribution? This is the main content of this paper.
In this paper, we analyzed the impact of RMB exchange rate on the distribution of agricultural products in china comprehensively from the theoretical and empirical aspects in the analysis of trade gravity model framework using the data of the first quarter of2005to the fourth quarter of2011as example based on the analysis of the evolution of the characteristics of the RMB exchange rate and the flow of the distribution of China's agricultural exports combined with the actual situation and needs. According to the research content, the paper is divided into five parts:
The first part includes the first chapter and the second chapter. The research background and significance, the research target and technical route, the definition of related concepts and research literature summary and combing the content are discussed in this part, laying a solid foundation for the following research foundation;
The second part is the third chapter. The main content of this part is descriptive analysis of historical evolution of China's exchange rate system of RMB and China's exports distribution of agricultural products;
The third part is theoretical analysis, which is the fourth chapter of this paper. This part mainly analyze the impact of China's agricultural exports factors including the RMB exchange rate and conduction mechanism under the framework of analysis of trade gravity model and establish the theoretical model proposed reasoning test;
The fourth part is empirical analysis, including the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter. This part are respectively empirical test of the RMB exchange rate change on the export region distribution of China's agricultural products and the distribution of export of agricultural products market effect on the basis of the theoretical analysis in the fourth chapter of the gravity model of trade adjustment as the analysis framework;
The fifth part is the summary of the whole paper.
This paper mainly includes the following innovative points:First, this paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate on the distribution of China's agricultural products export, enriching the research of trade in agricultural products in the range of the research content. It has a certain novelty; Secondly, the former scholars mostly use the real effective exchange rate of RMB calculated by IMF or BIS while this paper uses RMB real effective exchange rate index which is weighted by amount of agricultural products export to study the influence on the flow structure of export of China's agricultural products in the use of research data. It has some new ideas in data use; Finally, this paper applies the analysis method of gravity model to study the distribution of agricultural products in China in the application of research method and it broaden the scope of application of gravity model to a certain extent with some new ideas in the application of gravity model.
In this paper, the study found that:First, on the regional distribution of agricultural products export, China agricultural product export provinces and cities are still mainly concentrated in the eastern region, regional differences exist. On the distribution of agricultural products export market, Asia, North America and the European market is still the major market for exports of agricultural products in China. However, Japan, South Korea and other traditional destination market share is declining, indicating that China's agricultural products export market has been optimized to some extent; Secondly, the foreign income growth promoted the amount in China's exports of agricultural products and it has played a positive effect; Again, on the whole, the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on the export distribution of China's agricultural products. On the regional distribution, the appreciation of the RMB caused a decrease in eastern China and the central region and the eastern provinces of major agricultural products export of agricultural products, agricultural products export of western region is not obvious. On the market distribution, the appreciation of the RMB made the reduction of China's agricultural products exports to Asia and Europe and have a negative impact on the export of agricultural products in most countries; Finally, the distance had a negative impact on China's agricultural exports distribution.
引文
1 参见许少强,朱真丽《1949-2000人民币汇率史》(2002)相关内容
2 参见孙文莉《人民币汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响研究》(2009)P135相关内容
1 参见李坤望《国际经济学》(2005)P240相关内容
1 参见黄祖辉等《中国农产品出口贸易结构和变化趋势》P12相关内容。
1 可以参见程大中《国际贸易——理论与经验分析》一书P196—P197相关内容。
1 参见李坤望《国际经济学》一书P241相关内容。
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2 参见孙文莉《人民币汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响研究》(2009)P135相关内容
1 参见李坤望《国际经济学》(2005)P240相关内容
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