河北省退耕还林工程效益评价研究
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摘要
退耕还林工程是我国有史以来,投资最多、涉及面最广、政策性最强、社会各界最为关注的生态环境建设工程。然而,退耕还林工程实施至今效益如何?退耕还林工程效益的监测与评价是社会各界密切关注的问题。目前,不少学者对退耕还林工程效益进行了多方面的研究,但大多只是对某工程区的局部地区测定所得数据进行分析,缺乏系统的数据来源。本文在河北省退耕还林工程监测项目多年连续定点监测的基础上,采取入户、座谈等方式广泛收集了各案例点的监测数据和全省的退耕相关数据。
本文在综合参考有关森林效益评价指标的基础上,以中国生态林业工程综合效益评价指标体系及国家林业局退耕还林工程效益监测指标体系为依据,根据河北省的实际情况,采取AHP—Delphi法筛选出了河北省退耕还林工程综合效益评价指标体系。该评价指标体系包括了总体层指标1个,状态层3个,变量层指标8个,要素层指标21个,同时得出了各指标的权重。
在综合国内外关于森林生态系统效益评价及退耕还林效益评价的基础上,采取了影子工程法、机会成本法、市场价值法等效益计量评价方法,选取了河北省两个经济、地理环境差异比较大的工程区做为代表,对其7年来退耕还林工程综合效益进行了系统的全面计量评价研究,结果表明:(1)承德市退耕还林工程综合效益分值为67.15,综合效益一般;生态效益分值为66.00,其中水源涵养功能分值为93.00,表明承德市退耕还林工程区水源涵养功能效益显著;水土保持功能、改良土壤作用评价分值分别为60.00、68.40,效益一般;改善环境作用指标分值为40.00,表明承德市退耕还林工程区改善环境功能效益还不明显。退耕还林工程区的经济效益分值为66.64、社会效益分值为71.24,效益较好。(2)石家庄市退耕还林工程综合效益分值为70.47,综合效益较好。生态效益分值为67.36,其中水源涵养功能分值为86.00,表明石家庄市退耕还林工程区水源涵养功能效益显著;水土保持功能为60.00,效益一般;改良土壤作用评价分值为84.20,效益较为明显;改善环境作用指标分值为40.00,表明石家庄市退耕还林工程区改善环境功能效益还不明显。石家庄市退耕还林工程区的经济效益分值为76.00,较好。石家庄市退耕还林工程社会效益分值为73.28,较好。(3)两个案例分析的结果表明,经济发展较落后的承德市退耕还林综合效益总体稍差于省会石家庄市,随着植被的增加,两市的生态效益开始显现,水源涵养效益显著,承德市的退耕还林工程所取得的社会经济效益不如石家庄市明显。
为进一步分析河北省退耕还林对社会的影响效益,采用时间序列法对河北省20年来社会经济发展情况进行建模、预测,分析了退耕还林项目区内退耕还林项目实施前后粮食产量、各行业从业人员、各行业收入、产业结构调整等方面的变化情况,结果表明:(1)从事农林牧渔业的人数在不断减少,而从事工业、建筑业交通业、批发零售住宿餐饮业等非农行业的人数都有不同比例的增加,说明退耕还林工程的实施促动了农村剩余劳动力往其他行业的转移,有利于农村产业结构的调整。(2)粮食播种面积退耕还林后明显降低,但粮食产量及收入却稳步提高,且提高幅度比退耕前还要大,说明退耕后农民对农业单位面积投入加大,经营更加精细,土地利用趋于更加合理和可持续,不会因此导致粮食危机问题。
The returning farmland to forest is an ecological development program with huge investment and many aspects and featuring clear-cut policies. It is a complex process and involves broad mass participation. The monitoring and evaluation of the benefits of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program concerns the whole society. Although many scholars have made some researches on the benefits of the Returning Farmland to Forest, most of them have only analyzed the data collected in some special project areas, lacking systematic data sources. Based on the consecutive several years of fixed site monitoring of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program in Hebei Province, this paper have broadly collected the monitoring data in each monitoring site and the relevant data of the whole province by way of interviewing households and making extensive discussions.
Taking the relevant evaluation indexes of forest benefits as a comprehensive reference, based on the Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Index System of China's Eco-forestry Programs and the Benefit Monitoring Index System of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program formulated by the State Forestry Administration and in accordance with the actual situation of Hebei Province, this paper has selected the comprehensive benefit evaluation index system of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program in Hebei Province with the AHP-Delphi method. The said evaluation index system includes 1 overall level indicator, 3 state level indicators, 8 variable level indicators and 21 element level indicators, and the weight of each indicator is given.
By synthesizing the benefit evaluation of the forest ecosystem at home and abroad and the benefit evaluation of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program, and by selecting two project areas of Hebei Province with relatively large differences in economical and geographical environment as representatives, this paper has made a systematic overall measurement evaluation on the comprehensive benefits of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program with the shadow engineering method, the opportunity cost method and the market value method. The results show that: (1) in Chengde City, the comprehensive benefit of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program is 67.15 marks indicating the comprehensive benefit is common. The ecological benefit is 66.00 marks of which the water conservation function is 93.00 marks indicating the water conservation function of the returning farmland to forest areas in Chengde is very good, the water and soil conservation function and the soil improvement function are 60.00 marks and 68.40 marks respectively indicating these functions are common, the environment improvement function is 40.00 marks indicating the environment improvement function is not good enough. The economic benefit in the returning farmland to forest project areas is 66.64 marks. The social benefit is 71.24 marks indicating the benefit is fairly good. (2) in Shijiazhuang City, the comprehensive benefit of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program is 70.47 marks indicating the comprehensive benefit is fairly good. The ecological benefit is 67.36 marks of which the water conservation function is 86.00 marks indicating the water conservation function of the returning farmland to forest areas in Shijiazhuang is very good, the water and soil conservation function is 60.00 marks indicating the benefit is common, the soil improvement function is 84.20 marks indicating the benefit is fairly good, the environment improvement function is 40.00 marks indicating the environment improvement function is not good enough. The economic benefit in the returning farmland to forest project areas is 76.00 marks indicating the benefit is fairly good. The social benefit is 73.28 marks indicating the benefit is fairly good. (3 ) The study results of two cases show that the comprehensive benefit of the returning farmland to forest in less developed Chengde City is not as good as that of the capital Shijiazhuang. With the increase of vegetation, the ecological benefits of the two cities begin to appear and the water conservation benefit is good. The socio-economic benefits of the returning farmland to forest program in Chengde are not as good as that of Shijiazhuang.
In order to further analysis the effectiveness of the returning farmland to forest program in Hebei Province, this paper has modeled and analyzed the socio-economic development of Hebei Province in recent 20 years. The results show that: (1) the number of people engaged in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are in the steady decline, but the number of people engaged in the non-agricultural sector such as industry, transport industry, construction, wholesale and retail accommodation has a different proportion of increase, it proves the project of returning farmland to forest promote the implementation of the rural surplus labor transfer to other industries, and is beneficial to the adjustment of industrial structure in rural areas. (2) The grain sown area decreased significantly after returning farmland to forests, but the food production and income has steadily increased, which indicates that the input per unit area after returning farmland to forests have been increased, more intensive management has been adopted, the land-use is more rational and sustainable, and the food crisis will not result from the returning farmland to forest program.
本文在综合参考有关森林效益评价指标的基础上,以中国生态林业工程综合效益评价指标体系及国家林业局退耕还林工程效益监测指标体系为依据,根据河北省的实际情况,采取AHP—Delphi法筛选出了河北省退耕还林工程综合效益评价指标体系。该评价指标体系包括了总体层指标1个,状态层3个,变量层指标8个,要素层指标21个,同时得出了各指标的权重。
在综合国内外关于森林生态系统效益评价及退耕还林效益评价的基础上,采取了影子工程法、机会成本法、市场价值法等效益计量评价方法,选取了河北省两个经济、地理环境差异比较大的工程区做为代表,对其7年来退耕还林工程综合效益进行了系统的全面计量评价研究,结果表明:(1)承德市退耕还林工程综合效益分值为67.15,综合效益一般;生态效益分值为66.00,其中水源涵养功能分值为93.00,表明承德市退耕还林工程区水源涵养功能效益显著;水土保持功能、改良土壤作用评价分值分别为60.00、68.40,效益一般;改善环境作用指标分值为40.00,表明承德市退耕还林工程区改善环境功能效益还不明显。退耕还林工程区的经济效益分值为66.64、社会效益分值为71.24,效益较好。(2)石家庄市退耕还林工程综合效益分值为70.47,综合效益较好。生态效益分值为67.36,其中水源涵养功能分值为86.00,表明石家庄市退耕还林工程区水源涵养功能效益显著;水土保持功能为60.00,效益一般;改良土壤作用评价分值为84.20,效益较为明显;改善环境作用指标分值为40.00,表明石家庄市退耕还林工程区改善环境功能效益还不明显。石家庄市退耕还林工程区的经济效益分值为76.00,较好。石家庄市退耕还林工程社会效益分值为73.28,较好。(3)两个案例分析的结果表明,经济发展较落后的承德市退耕还林综合效益总体稍差于省会石家庄市,随着植被的增加,两市的生态效益开始显现,水源涵养效益显著,承德市的退耕还林工程所取得的社会经济效益不如石家庄市明显。
为进一步分析河北省退耕还林对社会的影响效益,采用时间序列法对河北省20年来社会经济发展情况进行建模、预测,分析了退耕还林项目区内退耕还林项目实施前后粮食产量、各行业从业人员、各行业收入、产业结构调整等方面的变化情况,结果表明:(1)从事农林牧渔业的人数在不断减少,而从事工业、建筑业交通业、批发零售住宿餐饮业等非农行业的人数都有不同比例的增加,说明退耕还林工程的实施促动了农村剩余劳动力往其他行业的转移,有利于农村产业结构的调整。(2)粮食播种面积退耕还林后明显降低,但粮食产量及收入却稳步提高,且提高幅度比退耕前还要大,说明退耕后农民对农业单位面积投入加大,经营更加精细,土地利用趋于更加合理和可持续,不会因此导致粮食危机问题。
The returning farmland to forest is an ecological development program with huge investment and many aspects and featuring clear-cut policies. It is a complex process and involves broad mass participation. The monitoring and evaluation of the benefits of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program concerns the whole society. Although many scholars have made some researches on the benefits of the Returning Farmland to Forest, most of them have only analyzed the data collected in some special project areas, lacking systematic data sources. Based on the consecutive several years of fixed site monitoring of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program in Hebei Province, this paper have broadly collected the monitoring data in each monitoring site and the relevant data of the whole province by way of interviewing households and making extensive discussions.
Taking the relevant evaluation indexes of forest benefits as a comprehensive reference, based on the Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Index System of China's Eco-forestry Programs and the Benefit Monitoring Index System of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program formulated by the State Forestry Administration and in accordance with the actual situation of Hebei Province, this paper has selected the comprehensive benefit evaluation index system of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program in Hebei Province with the AHP-Delphi method. The said evaluation index system includes 1 overall level indicator, 3 state level indicators, 8 variable level indicators and 21 element level indicators, and the weight of each indicator is given.
By synthesizing the benefit evaluation of the forest ecosystem at home and abroad and the benefit evaluation of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program, and by selecting two project areas of Hebei Province with relatively large differences in economical and geographical environment as representatives, this paper has made a systematic overall measurement evaluation on the comprehensive benefits of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program with the shadow engineering method, the opportunity cost method and the market value method. The results show that: (1) in Chengde City, the comprehensive benefit of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program is 67.15 marks indicating the comprehensive benefit is common. The ecological benefit is 66.00 marks of which the water conservation function is 93.00 marks indicating the water conservation function of the returning farmland to forest areas in Chengde is very good, the water and soil conservation function and the soil improvement function are 60.00 marks and 68.40 marks respectively indicating these functions are common, the environment improvement function is 40.00 marks indicating the environment improvement function is not good enough. The economic benefit in the returning farmland to forest project areas is 66.64 marks. The social benefit is 71.24 marks indicating the benefit is fairly good. (2) in Shijiazhuang City, the comprehensive benefit of the Returning Farmland to Forest Program is 70.47 marks indicating the comprehensive benefit is fairly good. The ecological benefit is 67.36 marks of which the water conservation function is 86.00 marks indicating the water conservation function of the returning farmland to forest areas in Shijiazhuang is very good, the water and soil conservation function is 60.00 marks indicating the benefit is common, the soil improvement function is 84.20 marks indicating the benefit is fairly good, the environment improvement function is 40.00 marks indicating the environment improvement function is not good enough. The economic benefit in the returning farmland to forest project areas is 76.00 marks indicating the benefit is fairly good. The social benefit is 73.28 marks indicating the benefit is fairly good. (3 ) The study results of two cases show that the comprehensive benefit of the returning farmland to forest in less developed Chengde City is not as good as that of the capital Shijiazhuang. With the increase of vegetation, the ecological benefits of the two cities begin to appear and the water conservation benefit is good. The socio-economic benefits of the returning farmland to forest program in Chengde are not as good as that of Shijiazhuang.
In order to further analysis the effectiveness of the returning farmland to forest program in Hebei Province, this paper has modeled and analyzed the socio-economic development of Hebei Province in recent 20 years. The results show that: (1) the number of people engaged in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are in the steady decline, but the number of people engaged in the non-agricultural sector such as industry, transport industry, construction, wholesale and retail accommodation has a different proportion of increase, it proves the project of returning farmland to forest promote the implementation of the rural surplus labor transfer to other industries, and is beneficial to the adjustment of industrial structure in rural areas. (2) The grain sown area decreased significantly after returning farmland to forests, but the food production and income has steadily increased, which indicates that the input per unit area after returning farmland to forests have been increased, more intensive management has been adopted, the land-use is more rational and sustainable, and the food crisis will not result from the returning farmland to forest program.
引文
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