我国农户种粮收益问题实证研究
摘要
如何提高农民的种粮收益,是关系到我国粮食供给安全与农民增收的关键问题。提高农户种粮收益,可以将政府保障粮食供给的宏观目标与农户追求家庭收益最大化的微观诉求统一在一个框架下,对于兼顾实现农民增收与保障粮食供给安全具有重要意义。本研究利用全国固定观察点大样本微观住户数据,并结合统计年鉴宏观数据,采用实证研究的方法,分析讨论土地规模与市场价格条件对农户种粮收益的影响,以期为提高农民种粮收益,增强我国粮食供给安全获得一些有价值的结论和政策建议。
本文首先利用宏观数据对我国主要粮食作物产量、价格、成本与收益的变化特征及其产生原因进行描述性分析。在此基础上,借助全国农村固定观察点的微观住户数据,实证研究了土地规模变动对农户粮食产量与平均成本的影响,以考察土地规模在提高种粮收益中的作用。然后,进一步利用微观住户数据实证研究了要素价格与产品价格对于农户粮食产量的影响,并结合宏观数据测算了要素投入的边际报酬率,以考察市场价格因素对农户种粮收益的影响。
研究结果表明：现阶段土地规模扩大能够提高农民的种粮收益。土地规模扩大可以提高农户家庭的粮食产出水平,增加种粮收入；土地规模扩大有利于节约生产成本,提高农户的种粮净利润；小麦与玉米生产存在着轻微的规模报酬递增现象,能够带给农户额外产量,从而提高种粮收益水平。土地规模扩大对小麦与玉米增产有利,对稻谷增产不利。小麦和玉米生产规模报酬递增,稻谷生产规模报酬递减；土地规模上升,会导致小麦与玉米的单产微弱提高,但会造成稻谷单产水平随之发生下降。
粮价上涨能够显著提高农户家庭的粮食产量,单一生产要素价格上涨会导致粮食减产,但影响程度较低。粮食价格对稻谷和玉米增产的激励作用近年来出现了上升,对小麦增产的激励作用在下降；单一物质投入要素价格的粮食产出弹性普遍较小,不同要素价格的影响程度因品种不同而存在差异。产品与要素价格对种粮收益的影响表现在：物质要素投入在小麦生产中回报价值较低,在玉米和稻谷生产中回报价值较高；在稻谷和玉米生产中,种子与机械投入的边际报酬率较高,化肥和农药投入的边际报酬率较低。此外,研究发现补贴金额对于农户种粮生产成本具有补偿作用,但对于农户粮食产量提高无显著促进作用。采用良种补贴有利于粮食增产：粮食直接补贴则对稻谷增产有微弱促进作用,却不利于玉米增产。
基于结论,本文建议应在对不同粮食作物进行区别的基础上,在有条件的地区推动粮食生产的适度规模化经营。同时,应努力完善粮食的最低收购价格与保护价格政策,发挥市场价格在种粮收益与粮食增产中的作用。进一步完善现行的粮食支持补贴政策,加大补贴力度特别是专项生产补贴力度。将若干具体政策纳入构建新型农业经营体系的框架下,协调一致进行改革,才能提高农户的种粮收益,激励农民种粮行为,从而保障国家粮食供给安全。
How to improve the profit of grain production for famers is a key issue for China's food supply security and rural farmers' income raise. Increasing profit of grain production for farmers integrates the overall goal for the government to guarantee the food supply and the micro appeal of farmers for the pursuit of maximizing family income, therefore, it gains great significance for raising famers' income and guaranteeing food supply security by giving consideration to both increasing farmers' income and promoting grain production. This study uses large samples of micro households data collected from fixed watch points nationwide, apart from macro data in the statistical yearbook, through empirical research, analyses and discusses the impact of land scale and market price on the profit of grain production for farmers, hoping to gain some valuable conclusions and policy suggestions on increasing profit of grain production for farmers.
Using macro data, this article first gives an in-depth analysis on the change features of the production, price, cost and profit of China's main grain. Based on that, the article then gives an empirical research of the impact of land scale change on grain production and average cost for farmers by using micro household data collected from rural fixed watch points nationwide, in order to investigate the role of land scale in raising profit of grain production. After that, it gives an empirical research of the impact of factor price and product price on grain yield for farmers through micro household data, it also measures and calculates the marginal internal rate of return for factor input through macro data to investigate the impact of market price on the profit of grain production for farmers.
The study has shown that:enlarging land scale at present stage increases profit of grain production for farmers. Enlarging land scale raises the level of farmers' grain production effectively, it boosts absolute value of grain income in circumstance that the price doesn't change; there exists slight increasing returns to scale in the production of wheat and corn, which brings extra production to farmers and raise net income for farmers; enlarging land scale benefits saving production cost and boosts net profit of grain production for farmers.
Enlarging land scale benefits volume increase of wheat and corn while harms volume increase of rice. Return to scale of the production of wheat and corn increases while which of rice decreases; once land scale enlarges, per unit yield of wheat and corn increases slightly, while per unit yield of rice decrease.
Increasing grain price promotes grain yield for rural households in a significant way, while increasing single factor price results in a reduction of grain yield in a low level. The incentive function which grain price have on increasing production of rice and corn appears more evidently in recent years, while its incentive function for increasing production of wheat is weakening; the output elasticity of single input factor price grain is small generally, the impact of different factor prices differs with its varieties.
The impact of price on the profit of grain production mainly reflects in:returning value of material elements input in wheat production is low relatively, while in the production of corn and rice is high; in the production of rice and corn, the marginal rate of return to scale of seed and mechanical equipment input is high comparatively, while the marginal rate of return to scale of chemical fertilizer and pesticide is low. The amount of subsidy puts a compensation action towards grain production cost for farmers, while doesn't have a significant acceleration for farmers' increasing grain yield. Using subsidies for superior crop varieties promotes grain yield; direct subsidy for crop have a slight acceleration for increasing rice yield while not promoting corn production.
With the purpose of increasing the profit of grain production for farmers, boosting enthusiasm of farmers in growing grain, and guaranteeing nation's food supply security, we should promote moderate scale management for grain production in areas where necessary conditions are satisfied. In the mean time, we should make efforts in improving the policy of minimum purchase price and protective price for grain, and give play to the role of market price in profit of grain production and promoting of grain yield. It also calls for further improving of current grain subsidy policy, increasing subsidy especially special subsidy, and put some detailed policies into the framework of new agricultural management system to coordinate reform.
本文首先利用宏观数据对我国主要粮食作物产量、价格、成本与收益的变化特征及其产生原因进行描述性分析。在此基础上,借助全国农村固定观察点的微观住户数据,实证研究了土地规模变动对农户粮食产量与平均成本的影响,以考察土地规模在提高种粮收益中的作用。然后,进一步利用微观住户数据实证研究了要素价格与产品价格对于农户粮食产量的影响,并结合宏观数据测算了要素投入的边际报酬率,以考察市场价格因素对农户种粮收益的影响。
研究结果表明：现阶段土地规模扩大能够提高农民的种粮收益。土地规模扩大可以提高农户家庭的粮食产出水平,增加种粮收入；土地规模扩大有利于节约生产成本,提高农户的种粮净利润；小麦与玉米生产存在着轻微的规模报酬递增现象,能够带给农户额外产量,从而提高种粮收益水平。土地规模扩大对小麦与玉米增产有利,对稻谷增产不利。小麦和玉米生产规模报酬递增,稻谷生产规模报酬递减；土地规模上升,会导致小麦与玉米的单产微弱提高,但会造成稻谷单产水平随之发生下降。
粮价上涨能够显著提高农户家庭的粮食产量,单一生产要素价格上涨会导致粮食减产,但影响程度较低。粮食价格对稻谷和玉米增产的激励作用近年来出现了上升,对小麦增产的激励作用在下降；单一物质投入要素价格的粮食产出弹性普遍较小,不同要素价格的影响程度因品种不同而存在差异。产品与要素价格对种粮收益的影响表现在：物质要素投入在小麦生产中回报价值较低,在玉米和稻谷生产中回报价值较高；在稻谷和玉米生产中,种子与机械投入的边际报酬率较高,化肥和农药投入的边际报酬率较低。此外,研究发现补贴金额对于农户种粮生产成本具有补偿作用,但对于农户粮食产量提高无显著促进作用。采用良种补贴有利于粮食增产：粮食直接补贴则对稻谷增产有微弱促进作用,却不利于玉米增产。
基于结论,本文建议应在对不同粮食作物进行区别的基础上,在有条件的地区推动粮食生产的适度规模化经营。同时,应努力完善粮食的最低收购价格与保护价格政策,发挥市场价格在种粮收益与粮食增产中的作用。进一步完善现行的粮食支持补贴政策,加大补贴力度特别是专项生产补贴力度。将若干具体政策纳入构建新型农业经营体系的框架下,协调一致进行改革,才能提高农户的种粮收益,激励农民种粮行为,从而保障国家粮食供给安全。
How to improve the profit of grain production for famers is a key issue for China's food supply security and rural farmers' income raise. Increasing profit of grain production for farmers integrates the overall goal for the government to guarantee the food supply and the micro appeal of farmers for the pursuit of maximizing family income, therefore, it gains great significance for raising famers' income and guaranteeing food supply security by giving consideration to both increasing farmers' income and promoting grain production. This study uses large samples of micro households data collected from fixed watch points nationwide, apart from macro data in the statistical yearbook, through empirical research, analyses and discusses the impact of land scale and market price on the profit of grain production for farmers, hoping to gain some valuable conclusions and policy suggestions on increasing profit of grain production for farmers.
Using macro data, this article first gives an in-depth analysis on the change features of the production, price, cost and profit of China's main grain. Based on that, the article then gives an empirical research of the impact of land scale change on grain production and average cost for farmers by using micro household data collected from rural fixed watch points nationwide, in order to investigate the role of land scale in raising profit of grain production. After that, it gives an empirical research of the impact of factor price and product price on grain yield for farmers through micro household data, it also measures and calculates the marginal internal rate of return for factor input through macro data to investigate the impact of market price on the profit of grain production for farmers.
The study has shown that:enlarging land scale at present stage increases profit of grain production for farmers. Enlarging land scale raises the level of farmers' grain production effectively, it boosts absolute value of grain income in circumstance that the price doesn't change; there exists slight increasing returns to scale in the production of wheat and corn, which brings extra production to farmers and raise net income for farmers; enlarging land scale benefits saving production cost and boosts net profit of grain production for farmers.
Enlarging land scale benefits volume increase of wheat and corn while harms volume increase of rice. Return to scale of the production of wheat and corn increases while which of rice decreases; once land scale enlarges, per unit yield of wheat and corn increases slightly, while per unit yield of rice decrease.
Increasing grain price promotes grain yield for rural households in a significant way, while increasing single factor price results in a reduction of grain yield in a low level. The incentive function which grain price have on increasing production of rice and corn appears more evidently in recent years, while its incentive function for increasing production of wheat is weakening; the output elasticity of single input factor price grain is small generally, the impact of different factor prices differs with its varieties.
The impact of price on the profit of grain production mainly reflects in:returning value of material elements input in wheat production is low relatively, while in the production of corn and rice is high; in the production of rice and corn, the marginal rate of return to scale of seed and mechanical equipment input is high comparatively, while the marginal rate of return to scale of chemical fertilizer and pesticide is low. The amount of subsidy puts a compensation action towards grain production cost for farmers, while doesn't have a significant acceleration for farmers' increasing grain yield. Using subsidies for superior crop varieties promotes grain yield; direct subsidy for crop have a slight acceleration for increasing rice yield while not promoting corn production.
With the purpose of increasing the profit of grain production for farmers, boosting enthusiasm of farmers in growing grain, and guaranteeing nation's food supply security, we should promote moderate scale management for grain production in areas where necessary conditions are satisfied. In the mean time, we should make efforts in improving the policy of minimum purchase price and protective price for grain, and give play to the role of market price in profit of grain production and promoting of grain yield. It also calls for further improving of current grain subsidy policy, increasing subsidy especially special subsidy, and put some detailed policies into the framework of new agricultural management system to coordinate reform.
引文
2 数据来源：根据《第二次全国农业普查主要数据公报》整理
3 数据来源：文中数据,根据《中国统计年鉴2013》、《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编2013》、和《第二次全国农业普查主要数据公报》中相关数据自行收集整理
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3 数据来源：文中数据,根据《中国统计年鉴2013》、《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编2013》、和《第二次全国农业普查主要数据公报》中相关数据自行收集整理
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