基于特征价格的住宅价格空间分异研究
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摘要
近几年来,不断上涨的住宅价格已经成为整个社会关注的热点和焦点,在一些大城市,城市的高速发展和中心商务区的形成等多种因素促使其住宅价格在空间上形成了多个分布不规则的高位区和快速增值区,住宅价格的空间分异现象越来越明显。而剖析住宅价格空间分异形成的影响因素及其内在原因,并对各影响因素的影响方式进行探讨,其成果对相关政策的制定、开发商对项目的定位与定价和消费者选择合适的住宅都具有较高的参考价值。
本文以区位理论和特征价格理论为基础,构建了住宅特征价格模型,并以北京市海淀区的住宅价格为对象进行了实证研究。得出的主要结论为:政策法规决定了住宅价格空间分异的趋势,城市核心区的凸显的和次级中心的形成是住宅价格空间分异的主要原因,品牌开发商的营造能力为住宅价格的空间分异创造了条件,而重大事件的发生以及居民的择居行为则为住宅价格的空间分异提供了动力。针对海淀区住宅价格的研究发现,距城市传统中心区的距离对住宅价格空间分异的影响最大,其次是周边自然环境、教育配套和距中关村的距离;海淀区的住宅价格在空间上以环线高速路为分隔呈较为明显的带状分布,而中关村对住宅价格的影响半径约为4公里,在此区域内,住宅价格形成了一个高峰区,在其它自然环境和配套设施条件较好的地区也有多个价格高位区形成。
在国内外研究成果的基础上,本文在如下几点有所创新:结合区位理论,利用特征价格模型对住宅价格的空间分异进行研究,使住宅特征对住宅价格的影响以量化的形式表现出来,改变了传统的定性分析方法;在模型的构建过程中加入了品牌特征变量等扩展变量,完善了特征变量,使所得结果更加准确,更具实际意义;对部分区位特征变量通过变量替换和改变量化方法等方式进行了较为深入的比较研究,并最终得出了中关村对住宅价格的影响范围,明确了环线距离对住宅价格的影响方式。
In recent years, the housing price question becomes one of the focuses that the people and government pay close attention to. In some major cities, the constantly improving of infrastructures and the formation of central business district raised the price of its surrounding houses, and the spatial differentiation of housing price becomes increasingly obvious. The study on spatial differentiation of housing price and how the housing characteristics impact housing price would be valuable for the formulation of relevant policies, the project's positioning and pricing and consumer's choice.
Based on the location theories, the spatial distribution characteristic of housing price is preliminary analysis, on this basis, the housing hedonic price model (HPM) is structured. The paper carries on with an experiential research on the housing prices of Haidian District, and finally reached the following conclusions: Location characteristics and surrounding natural environment have a major impact on housing price, create capacity of brand housing developers create the conditions for the spatial differentiation of housing price, and continuous development of cities and the choosing process by consumers provide the impetus. In Haidian District, the distance to the traditional center of the city impacts the housing price most, followed by natural environment, education establishment and distance to Zhongguancun; the housing price mainly shows zonal distribution separated by the ring roads. Zhongguancun has an effect on areas within a radius of 4 km, where the housing prices form a peak. In other area where have good natural environment and supporting facilities, the housing price also highlighted a number of area high price formation.
The present paper innovation place mainly is: Structuring housing hedonic price model based on the hedonic price theory and location theories to research the spatial differentiation of housing price, which changes the tradition qualitative analysis method to quantification. In the process of structuring model, brand characteristic is joined as expanded variables, which would make the model results more accurate and more practical significance. In-depth study is taken on several location characteristics using replaced characteristics and various quantitative methods; finally the impact function of ring roads and the impact scale of Zhongguancun are identified.
本文以区位理论和特征价格理论为基础,构建了住宅特征价格模型,并以北京市海淀区的住宅价格为对象进行了实证研究。得出的主要结论为:政策法规决定了住宅价格空间分异的趋势,城市核心区的凸显的和次级中心的形成是住宅价格空间分异的主要原因,品牌开发商的营造能力为住宅价格的空间分异创造了条件,而重大事件的发生以及居民的择居行为则为住宅价格的空间分异提供了动力。针对海淀区住宅价格的研究发现,距城市传统中心区的距离对住宅价格空间分异的影响最大,其次是周边自然环境、教育配套和距中关村的距离;海淀区的住宅价格在空间上以环线高速路为分隔呈较为明显的带状分布,而中关村对住宅价格的影响半径约为4公里,在此区域内,住宅价格形成了一个高峰区,在其它自然环境和配套设施条件较好的地区也有多个价格高位区形成。
在国内外研究成果的基础上,本文在如下几点有所创新:结合区位理论,利用特征价格模型对住宅价格的空间分异进行研究,使住宅特征对住宅价格的影响以量化的形式表现出来,改变了传统的定性分析方法;在模型的构建过程中加入了品牌特征变量等扩展变量,完善了特征变量,使所得结果更加准确,更具实际意义;对部分区位特征变量通过变量替换和改变量化方法等方式进行了较为深入的比较研究,并最终得出了中关村对住宅价格的影响范围,明确了环线距离对住宅价格的影响方式。
In recent years, the housing price question becomes one of the focuses that the people and government pay close attention to. In some major cities, the constantly improving of infrastructures and the formation of central business district raised the price of its surrounding houses, and the spatial differentiation of housing price becomes increasingly obvious. The study on spatial differentiation of housing price and how the housing characteristics impact housing price would be valuable for the formulation of relevant policies, the project's positioning and pricing and consumer's choice.
Based on the location theories, the spatial distribution characteristic of housing price is preliminary analysis, on this basis, the housing hedonic price model (HPM) is structured. The paper carries on with an experiential research on the housing prices of Haidian District, and finally reached the following conclusions: Location characteristics and surrounding natural environment have a major impact on housing price, create capacity of brand housing developers create the conditions for the spatial differentiation of housing price, and continuous development of cities and the choosing process by consumers provide the impetus. In Haidian District, the distance to the traditional center of the city impacts the housing price most, followed by natural environment, education establishment and distance to Zhongguancun; the housing price mainly shows zonal distribution separated by the ring roads. Zhongguancun has an effect on areas within a radius of 4 km, where the housing prices form a peak. In other area where have good natural environment and supporting facilities, the housing price also highlighted a number of area high price formation.
The present paper innovation place mainly is: Structuring housing hedonic price model based on the hedonic price theory and location theories to research the spatial differentiation of housing price, which changes the tradition qualitative analysis method to quantification. In the process of structuring model, brand characteristic is joined as expanded variables, which would make the model results more accurate and more practical significance. In-depth study is taken on several location characteristics using replaced characteristics and various quantitative methods; finally the impact function of ring roads and the impact scale of Zhongguancun are identified.
引文
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[2] Brown, J. N. and H. S. Rosen. On the estimation of structural hedonic models. Econometrics. 1982,50(3): 765-768
[3] C.Y. Jim, Wendy Y. Chen Consumption preferences and environmental externalities: A hedonic analysis of the housing market in Guangzhou. Geoforum. 2007(38): 414-431
[4] Chau, K. W, Ng, F. F. & Hung, E. C. T. Developer's good will as significant influence on apartment unit prices. Appraisal Journal. 2001. vol. 69: 26-34
[5] Chau, K. W, Ma, V S. M. & Ho, D. C. W. The pricing of "luckiness" in the apartment market. Journal of Real Estate Literature. 2001. vol. 9, no. 1: 3140
[6] Clauretie, T. M.&Neill, H. R. Year-round school schedules and residential property values. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. 2000,vol.20(3):311-322
[7] Correll, M. R., Lillydahl, J. H.&Singell, L. D. The effects of greenbelts on residential property values: Some findings on the political economy of open space. Land Economics. 1978, vol. 54, no. 2: 206-217
[8] Court, A. T. Hedonic Price Indexes with Automotive Examples, In the Dynamics of Automobile Demand. New York: General Motors. 1939
[9] Dubin, Robin A. Spatial Autocorrelation and Neighborhood Quality. Regional Science and Urban Economics. 1992,22(3): 433-52
[10] Dubin, Robin, Pace, R. K., Thibodeau, T. G Spatial regression techniques for real estate data. Journal of real estate literature. 1999(7): 79-95
[11] Edmonds, R. A theoretical basis for hedonic regression: A research primer. AREUEA Journal. 1984. vol. 12, no. 1:72-85
[12] Fletcher, M., Gallimore, P&Mangan, J. Heteroscedasticity in hedonic house price models. Journal of Property Research. 2000,vol.l7(2):93-108
[13] Garrod, Guy and Kenneth G Willis. Valuing Goods Characteristics-An Application of the Hedonic Price Method to Environmental Attributes. Journal of Environmental Management. 1992,34(1): 59-76
[14] Geoghegan, J., Wainger, L. A., Bocksteat, N. E. Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework: an ecological economics analysis using GIS, 1997 (23): 251-264
[15] Goodman, Allen. C, Thibodeau, G. Thomas. Housing Market Segmentation. J. Journal of Housing Economics. 1998(7): 121-143
[16] Griliches, Z. Hedonic Prices Indexes for Automobiles: An Econometric Analysis of Quality Change, The Price Statistics of the Federal Government. 1961,73
[17] Haurin, D. R. & Brasington, D. School quality and real house prices: Inter and intrametropolitan effects. Journal of Housing Economics. 1996, vol. 5:351-368
[18] Hsueh, L. M. The relationship between housing price, tenure choice and saving behavior in Taiwan.International Real Estate Review.2000.vol.3,no.1:11-33
[19]Huh,S.and Kwak S.J.The Choice of Functional form and Variables in the Hedonic Price Model in Seoul.J.Urban Studies.1997,34(7):989-998
[20]Kim,Chong won,Phipps,Tim T.,Anselin,Luc.Measuring the benefits of air quality improvement:a spatial hedonic approach.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.2003(45):24-39
[21]King,L.J.,Golledge R.G.Cities,space,and behavior:the dements of urban Englewood Cliffs.Prentice-Hall.Inc.1978.66
[22]Kohlhase,J.E.The Impact of Toxic Waste Sites on Housing Values.J.Journal of Urban Economics.1991,(30):1-26
[23]Lancaster,K.J.A New Approach to Consumer Theory.J.Journal of Political Economy.1966,74:132-157
[24]Lancaster,K.J.Consumer Demand:ANew Approach.Columbia University Press.1971
[25]Morancho,A.B.A hedonic valuation of urban green areas.Landscape and Urban Planning.2003(6):35-41
[26]Plattner,R.H & Campbell,T.J.A study of the effect of water view on site value.Appraisal Journal.1978,vol.46:20-25
[27]Ridker,R.q Henning,J.A.The Determinants of Residential Property Values With Special Reference to Air Pollution.J.The Review of Economics and Statistics.1967,49:246-257
[28]Rosen,S.Hedonic prices and implicit markets:Product differentiation in pure competition.J.Journal of Political Economy.1974,82(1):35-55
[29]Stevenson,S.New empirical evidence on heteroscedasticity in hedonic housing models.Journal of Housing Economics.2004.13:136-153
[30]Tiebout,Charles.A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures.Journal of Political Economy.1956,pp.416-424
[31]Tse,R.Y.C.Estimating neighborhood effects in housing prices:towards a new hedonic model approach.Urban Studies.2002,39(7):1165-1180
[32]Waugh,F.V.Quality factors influencing vegetable prices.Journal of Farm Economics.1928,10:185-196
[33]Wilhelmsson,M.Household expenditure patterns for housing attributes:a linear expenditure with hedonic prices.2002(11):75-93
[34]Witte,Ann D.,Howard Sumka & J.Erickson.An Estimate of a Structural Hedonic model of the Housing Market:An Application of Rosen's Theory of Implicit Markets.Econometrics.1979,47:1151-1172
[35]陈安明.基于主成分分析的住宅项目特征定价模型[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2006(6):16-17
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