服务业与经济增长稳定性的实证与理论分析
摘要
关于经济周期的理论历来众多。人们从外部冲击和内生因素等多个角度来考虑影响经济周期形成和波动的因素，不过产业角度的研究还有待加强。二次世界大战后，经济周期波动出现明显的缓和，进入20世纪80年代更是出现了新一轮更大的波动缓和。与此同时，服务业开始在发达资本主义国家蓬勃发展，占据了国民经济的半壁江山。因此，伯恩斯、富克斯等少数学者开始尝试用服务业的崛起来解释这一现象。随着服务经济理论的不断完善，服务业平复经济波动的特点也获得普遍认可。但是，2008年的金融危机使得服务业的稳定特性开始受到质疑，反对的声音认为，正是隶属于现代服务业的金融业导致了经济周期的波动，所以服务业的稳定特性已不复存在，经济周期的波动也开始变得剧烈。服务业与经济周期的关系开始变得扑朔迷离。有关服务业与经济周期关系的研究相对不足，其中涉及2008年金融危机之后的研究更是比重偏低，因此，这方面的研究更有必要。
目前，我国政府为了优化产业结构，促进经济稳定发展，先后出台了多项政策扶持服务业的发展，现已初见成效。而服务业与经济周期关系的变化势必会影响未来的政策走向。所以，本文力求通过研究自1978年以来的跨越30年的多国产业波动的情况，来明确现阶段服务业与经济周期的关系，为政府制定产业政策提供参考。
本文主要内容共分为八章。
第一章，介绍论文的研究背景、研究意义、研究框架和创新之处。
第二章，介绍二战以来国内外研究服务业与经济周期关系的相关文献，并从影响程度和影响机理两方面对国外文献进行适当地梳理，从制度、产业、行业特性、行业分类和研究地域等多个角度对国内文献进行归纳。
第三章，介绍服务业与经济周期的概念、基本特征、分类、相关理论及最新进展。
第四章，运用HP滤波法、普通最小二乘法等多种计量方法，对近30年来部分发达国家和发展中国家的服务业产值波动性进行研究，并建立回归模型检验服务业产值对经济总量的影响程度。
第五章，运用HP滤波法、普通最小二乘法等多种计量方法，对近30年来部分发达国家和发展中国家的服务业就业波动性进行研究，并建立回归模型检验服务业就业对总就业的影响程度。
第六章，以美国为例，运用HP滤波法、普通最小二乘法、向量自回归等多种计量方法从资本、劳动和产业互动的角度来探究服务业对经济周期的作用机理。
第七章，运用HP滤波法、普通最小二乘法、向量自回归等多种计量方法对改革开放以来中国的服务业产值和就业的波动性进行研究，并分别建立回归模型检验服务业对经济总量和总就业的影响程度。同样，从资本、劳动和产业互动的角度来考察中国服务业对经济周期的作用机理。
第八章，总结研究结论，提出政策建议及未来研究方向。
There are a lot of theories about the economic cycle for all the time. Researchersconsider the factors affecting the economic cycle and fluctuation mostly from variousangles such as the external shocks and endogenous factors, but seldom from theindustry angle. After World War II, there was a significant ease in the fluctuation ofthe economic cycle, and then a greater ease since the1980s. At the same time, theservice industry began to flourish in the developed countries, accounting for half oftheir national economy. Therefore, a few researchers, such as Burns and Fuchs, beganto try to explain this phenomenon with the rise of the service sector. With thecontinuous improvement of the service economic theory, the characteristics of theservices to calm economic fluctuations were generally recognized. However, the2008financial crisis makes the stability characteristics of the services to be questioned. Theopposite reason is that, it is financial industry–the part of the modern service industrythat has led to fluctuations in the economic cycle, so that the stability characteristic ofthe service sector has disappeared and fluctuations in the economic cycle becameintense. The relationship between services and the economic cycle becamecomplicated and confusing. There are few researches on the relationship betweenservice industry and the economic cycle, and even fewer researches involved the2008financial crisis. Therefore, it is very necessary to do research in this area.
At present, in order to optimize the industrial structure, and promote stableeconomic development, Chinese government has introduced a number of policies tosupport the development of service industry, which starts to have initial results. Thechanging relationship between the service industry and the economic cycle is boundto influence future policy. Therefore, this article tries to study multinations’ industryvolatility within30years since1978, to clarify the relationship between services andeconomic cycle at this stage, and provides a reference for Chinese government inmaking industrial policy.
The main content of this paper is divided into eight chapters.
Chapter1introduces the research background, significance, research frameworkand innovation.
Chapter2introduces the relevant literature about the relationship betweenservice industry and the economic cycle at home and abroad since World War II, andsorts out the foreign literature from the extent and the mechanism of influenceappropriately, and summarizes the domestic literature from multiple perspectives ofthe system, industry, industry characteristics, and industry classification and research countries.
Chapter3introduces the concept, basic characteristics, classification, relevanttheories and the latest developments of services and the economic cycle.
Chapter4uses the HP filter method, ordinary least squares method and othermeasurement methods to research on the output fluctuation in service sector in somedeveloped and developing countries during the past30years, and establishes theregression model to check on the influence of services output to total output.
Chapter5uses the HP filter method, ordinary least squares method and othermeasurement methods to research on the employment fluctuation in service sector insome developed and developing countries during the past30years, and establishes theregression model to check on the influence of services employment to totalemployment.
Chapter6uses the HP filter method, ordinary least squares, vector autoregressionand other measurement methods to explore, for example, the mechanism of theservice sector to the economic cycle in the United States, from the perspective ofcapital, labor and industry interaction.
Chapter7uses the HP filter method, ordinary least squares, vector autoregressionand other measurement methods to study the fluctuation of the output andemployment in China's service industry since reform and opening up, and sets up aregression model testing service industry to the total economy and total employment.In the same way, examines the mechanism of China's service industry on theeconomic cycle from the perspective of capital, labor and industry interaction.
Chapter8summarizes conclusions and makes policy recommendations andfuture research directions.
目前，我国政府为了优化产业结构，促进经济稳定发展，先后出台了多项政策扶持服务业的发展，现已初见成效。而服务业与经济周期关系的变化势必会影响未来的政策走向。所以，本文力求通过研究自1978年以来的跨越30年的多国产业波动的情况，来明确现阶段服务业与经济周期的关系，为政府制定产业政策提供参考。
本文主要内容共分为八章。
第一章，介绍论文的研究背景、研究意义、研究框架和创新之处。
第二章，介绍二战以来国内外研究服务业与经济周期关系的相关文献，并从影响程度和影响机理两方面对国外文献进行适当地梳理，从制度、产业、行业特性、行业分类和研究地域等多个角度对国内文献进行归纳。
第三章，介绍服务业与经济周期的概念、基本特征、分类、相关理论及最新进展。
第四章，运用HP滤波法、普通最小二乘法等多种计量方法，对近30年来部分发达国家和发展中国家的服务业产值波动性进行研究，并建立回归模型检验服务业产值对经济总量的影响程度。
第五章，运用HP滤波法、普通最小二乘法等多种计量方法，对近30年来部分发达国家和发展中国家的服务业就业波动性进行研究，并建立回归模型检验服务业就业对总就业的影响程度。
第六章，以美国为例，运用HP滤波法、普通最小二乘法、向量自回归等多种计量方法从资本、劳动和产业互动的角度来探究服务业对经济周期的作用机理。
第七章，运用HP滤波法、普通最小二乘法、向量自回归等多种计量方法对改革开放以来中国的服务业产值和就业的波动性进行研究，并分别建立回归模型检验服务业对经济总量和总就业的影响程度。同样，从资本、劳动和产业互动的角度来考察中国服务业对经济周期的作用机理。
第八章，总结研究结论，提出政策建议及未来研究方向。
There are a lot of theories about the economic cycle for all the time. Researchersconsider the factors affecting the economic cycle and fluctuation mostly from variousangles such as the external shocks and endogenous factors, but seldom from theindustry angle. After World War II, there was a significant ease in the fluctuation ofthe economic cycle, and then a greater ease since the1980s. At the same time, theservice industry began to flourish in the developed countries, accounting for half oftheir national economy. Therefore, a few researchers, such as Burns and Fuchs, beganto try to explain this phenomenon with the rise of the service sector. With thecontinuous improvement of the service economic theory, the characteristics of theservices to calm economic fluctuations were generally recognized. However, the2008financial crisis makes the stability characteristics of the services to be questioned. Theopposite reason is that, it is financial industry–the part of the modern service industrythat has led to fluctuations in the economic cycle, so that the stability characteristic ofthe service sector has disappeared and fluctuations in the economic cycle becameintense. The relationship between services and the economic cycle becamecomplicated and confusing. There are few researches on the relationship betweenservice industry and the economic cycle, and even fewer researches involved the2008financial crisis. Therefore, it is very necessary to do research in this area.
At present, in order to optimize the industrial structure, and promote stableeconomic development, Chinese government has introduced a number of policies tosupport the development of service industry, which starts to have initial results. Thechanging relationship between the service industry and the economic cycle is boundto influence future policy. Therefore, this article tries to study multinations’ industryvolatility within30years since1978, to clarify the relationship between services andeconomic cycle at this stage, and provides a reference for Chinese government inmaking industrial policy.
The main content of this paper is divided into eight chapters.
Chapter1introduces the research background, significance, research frameworkand innovation.
Chapter2introduces the relevant literature about the relationship betweenservice industry and the economic cycle at home and abroad since World War II, andsorts out the foreign literature from the extent and the mechanism of influenceappropriately, and summarizes the domestic literature from multiple perspectives ofthe system, industry, industry characteristics, and industry classification and research countries.
Chapter3introduces the concept, basic characteristics, classification, relevanttheories and the latest developments of services and the economic cycle.
Chapter4uses the HP filter method, ordinary least squares method and othermeasurement methods to research on the output fluctuation in service sector in somedeveloped and developing countries during the past30years, and establishes theregression model to check on the influence of services output to total output.
Chapter5uses the HP filter method, ordinary least squares method and othermeasurement methods to research on the employment fluctuation in service sector insome developed and developing countries during the past30years, and establishes theregression model to check on the influence of services employment to totalemployment.
Chapter6uses the HP filter method, ordinary least squares, vector autoregressionand other measurement methods to explore, for example, the mechanism of theservice sector to the economic cycle in the United States, from the perspective ofcapital, labor and industry interaction.
Chapter7uses the HP filter method, ordinary least squares, vector autoregressionand other measurement methods to study the fluctuation of the output andemployment in China's service industry since reform and opening up, and sets up aregression model testing service industry to the total economy and total employment.In the same way, examines the mechanism of China's service industry on theeconomic cycle from the perspective of capital, labor and industry interaction.
Chapter8summarizes conclusions and makes policy recommendations andfuture research directions.
引文
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[1]维克托.R.富克斯，许微云等译.服务经济学[M].北京：商务印书馆，1987：177-199.
[2]吴敬琏.中国增长模式抉择(修订版)[M].上海：世纪出版股份有限公司远东出版社,2006:70.
[3]程大中.中国服务业的增长与技术进步[J].世界经济,2003，(7)：35-42.
[4]薛敬孝，黄名坤，吴忱.论经济周期类型与制度演变[J].南开学报，1999，（6）：16-26.
[5]童光荣，刘玮.制度变迁、产业结构调整与我国经济周期波动的经验研究[J].经济前沿，2009，（7）：3-13.
[6]徐敬君，刘恒.中国经济周期波动的产业结构特征[J].云南民族大学学报（哲学社会科学版），2005，（5）：31-37.
[7]李云娥.宏观经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究[J].山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版），2008,（3）：120-126.
[8]孙广生.经济波动与产业波动(1986—2003)——相关性、特征及推动因素的初步研究[J].中国社会科学，2006，（3）：62-73.
[9]杨天宇，刘韵婷.中国经济结构调整对宏观经济波动的“熨平效应”分析[J].经济理论与经济管理，2011，（7）：47-55.
[10]罗光强,曾福生，曾伟.服务业发展对中国经济增长周期的影响[J].财贸经济，2008，（5）：122-127.
[11]方福前，詹新宇.我国产业结构升级对经济波动的熨平效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011，(9):5-16.
[12]杜俊娟.我国第三产业行业波动的实证检验[J].统计观察,2011，(22):96-99.
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