湖北省磷矿资源产业发展战略研究
摘要
矿业是国民经济的基础产业和支柱产业。矿产资源的富裕度和开发利用的深度和广度,直接关联着区域经济的发展和繁荣。但矿产资源是耗竭性资源,只有保证矿产资源的可持续利用,才能使社会经济可持续发展。而在传统的经济发展模式中,经济的发展过分依赖资源和能源的消耗,并以单纯的消耗资源和追求经济数量增长为特征,因此在经济增长的同时,也伴随着大量的资源浪费和环境污染。目前,随着人口数量的增加和工业化进程的加快,人类对矿产资源的需求有增无减。如何确保矿产资源的永续利用,已成为社会经济发展急需解决的重大难题。若要解决这一问题,首先需要对矿产资源与经济发展关系、矿产资源对经济发展的支撑作用、拉动作用、贡献份额及其对经济、环境发展的承载力、影响力作出切合实际的评价。而这些问题的研究充满复杂性和探索性。
对产业发展战略的研究,一直是产业经济学的重点和热点之一。一些当代产业战略研究学者认为,目前已经进入了战略优先的时代。因为在当今时代,由于资源与市场的一体化和有限性,造成了资源的极度稀缺、市场的激烈竞争和生存与发展环境的急剧恶化。因此,“不谋寰宇者不足以谋本域,不谋长远者不足以谋当前”。重视和加强产业发展的战略研究已成为产业经济学的学科前沿和研究重点。
磷矿资源是一种重要的、不可或缺的战略资源,在磷化学工业和国家粮食生产安全中占有极其重要的地位和作用。许多国家已经将磷矿资源列为战略资源。我国也已将其列为2010年后不能满足国民经济发展需求的20个紧缺矿种之一,以配额方式限制出口。磷矿资源的一系列下游产品在农业、化工、医药、食品等领域有着广泛的应用,尤其是在全球人口增长、工业化进程加快导致耕地面积缩减及诸多国家、地区对喜磷作物扩大种植的农业生产形势下,对磷肥需求的增长直接影响到磷矿资源的消费,所以磷矿资源的可持续开发利用直接关系到世界粮食安全及人类的生产发展。我国磷矿资源开发利用的现状是纵向比发展快、进步大、成效显著,有自己的特色优势。但与国外发达国家比,我国磷矿资源的开发利用仍处于较低水平。而且从磷矿资源的地理分布及经济发展及对磷矿资源的需求情况看,磷矿资源具有明显的稀缺性。
湖北是我国最主要的磷矿资源富集省份之一。做为我国磷矿资源储量、产能大省的湖北,磷矿资源优势十分明显,磷及磷化工业一直是湖北的优势矿种和主导产业之一,这从湖北省政府在不同历史时期先后多次就磷矿资源开发利用和磷及磷化工业发展制定和颁布专门文件,2011年首批实施的7个整装勘查项目中磷矿资源勘查项目就占了4个即可得到佐证。但怎么尽快将这种资源优势有效地转化为产业优势和经济优势?湖北磷及磷化工业如何响应省委、省政府的跨越式发展和可持续发展战略,实现磷及磷化工业的跨越式发展和磷矿资源的可持续开发利用?针对上述重大科学问题,进行以磷及磷化工业发展战略与路径选择为重点的探索与实践,具有重大的理论与现实意义。
做为新时期湖北磷及磷化工业的整体谋划,本文旨在通过对湖北磷及磷化工业的历史与现状的较全面系统的回顾与总结,依据湖北省情、矿情和国内外矿业环境现状分析,以推进和实现湖北磷及磷化工业的跨越式发展和磷矿资源的可持续开发利用为研究目标,以湖北磷矿资源的时空分布特点与开发利用现状分析为基础,应用资源经济学、产业经济学、数量经济学和产业比较优势的理论和方法,探索建立磷及磷化工业对经济社会发展的贡献力、拉动力、承载力指标体系和评价模型,并对湖北磷矿资源勘查开发对经济社会发展的贡献率、拉动力及承载力现状及前景进行定量分析与评价。确立磷及磷化工业在湖北经济社会可持续发展战略中的重要基础地位和对湖北经济社会发展的重大拉动作用。重点研究湖北磷及磷化工业发展战略及实现路径。从而为省政府及有关部门编制产业发展规划提供理论支撑和决策依据,推动湖北磷及磷化工业的跨越式发展和磷矿资源的可持续开发利用。
为此,笔者运用实证分析和理论分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法,用1年多的时间进行了大量的调查研究工作,收集了大量的有关资料,并深入了解和掌握了有关湖北磷矿资源与经济发展的实际情况。在此基础上,再运用相关资源经济学和产业经济学理论进行了相关专题的深入研究,力求使研究工作有较坚实的基础、较高的起点和较开阔的思路,使研究成果具有较强的理论意义和实用价值。本文的研究内容,贯穿磷矿资源勘查开发与经济发展密切相关和促进湖北磷矿资源优势向产业优势和经济优势转换这一研究主线,同时也较系统地从宏观和微观两个层次,定性和定量两种角度进行了湖北磷及磷化工业对湖北经济发展拉动力、贡献率、承载力、竞争力的分析和评价,提出了新时期湖北磷及磷化工业的发展战略和有效路径。
论文共分八个部分。第一部分为前言,第二部分为磷矿资源消费与经济发展的理论与实证分析,第三部分是全国及湖北省磷矿资源形势分析,第四部分是磷及磷化工业在湖北经济社会发展中的地位和作用,第五部分是湖北经济社会发展对磷矿资源的需求预测,第六部分磷及磷化工业对湖北经济社会发展的拉动力与贡献率分析,第七部分为湖北磷及磷化工业的最优发展战略,第八部分为湖北省磷及磷化工业的最佳发展路径。
前言部分主要包括论文的研究背景、目的及其意义。阐述论文研究的技术路线与方法。提出论文的创新点。明确提出实施中部率先战略,是湖北省委、省政府在世纪之交把握大局,不失时机做出的重大战略决策。无论在经济上,还是在政治上,都具有重大的现实意义和深远的历史意义。在我国的宏观经济发展格局中,湖北省的磷矿资源比较优势突出,分布相对集中,具有形成特色支柱产业的资源基础。
第一章矿产资源消费与经济发展的理论与实证分析：首先对磷矿资源开发利用研究的理论基础进行梳理。主要阐述了矿产资源消费与经济发展关系；工业化的阶段及结构演变；工业化的发展战略和路径选择；资源优势与区域工业化；区域可持续发展的战略目标和重点；区域发展的优势导向战略模式；促进经济发展的磷矿资源开发利用；磷及磷化工业是湖北经济的重要支柱产业；磷矿资源消费与经济发展关系的实证分析；影响磷矿资源消费的基本因素；磷矿资源消费的基本规律等。
第二章全国及湖北磷矿资源形势分析：综合评述了国内外磷矿资源开发利用的重点和趋势。主要进行了全国磷矿资源形势分析；指出全国及湖北磷矿资源的主要禀赋特点是资源丰富,分布相对集中；磷矿资源质量差,采选成本高；矿床类型齐全,但以沉积磷块岩矿床为主：伴生资源丰富,可利用的伴生资源多。从主要产区产能、产量及消费、磷的出口贸易、中低品位磷矿开发利用现状等方面探讨了全国及湖北磷矿资源开发利用情况；从需求预测、资源保证程度等方面探讨了我国磷矿资源的供需形势。指出磷矿资源地质勘查成就显著；资源整合工作初见成效；磷及磷化工业发展迅速；磷矿开发利用促进了地方经济社会发展；但亦面临着不容乐观的严峻形势：开采成本偏高,资源利用方式粗放,资源利用率低,资源浪费严重；资源整合力度亟需加强；中低品位磷矿开发利用势在必行；精细化已成为磷化工发展的必然方向；资源开发与生态环境保护矛盾日益突出。
第三章磷矿资源产业在湖北经济社会发展中的地位和作用：分析了湖北磷矿资源的基本情况和主要特点,磷矿资源开发的现状、潜力和存在的问题。主要阐述了湖北经济社会发展对磷矿资源的需求预测及可供性分析；湖北磷矿资源经济评价；磷矿资源在湖北经济发展中的地位和作用；磷矿资源保证湖北经济社会可持续发展的目标体系。
第四章湖北经济社会发展对磷矿资源的需求预测：主要进行了磷矿资源供应与需求关系分析,包括已探明磷矿资源的可供性评价、成矿远景和资源总量预测、磷矿资源满足磷化工发展需求的保证程度、矿产品供应能力分析、磷矿资源需求分析、社会经济发展对磷矿资源的使用和消费需求、社会经济发展对磷化工业发展的需求、磷化工发展对磷矿资源的需求、磷矿资源需求预测；磷矿资源需求预测的主要依据及基本原则；需求预测模型的建立和区域经济发展对磷矿资源的需求预测、湖北经济社会发展对磷矿资源的需求预测、湖北磷化工(磷肥)需求预测。
第五章磷矿资源产业对湖北经济社会发展的拉动力与贡献率分析：主要探讨了磷及磷化工业对湖北经济社会发展的拉动力及贡献率；通过对磷及磷化工(磷肥)对湖北经济发展的直接和间接贡献力评价证明：湖北社会经济发展过程中,磷矿资源的开发利用起到了非常重要的支撑和拉动作用。随着“中部崛起”战略及跨越式发展战略的不断深入,湖北仍需依靠磷矿资源这一优势矿种,在全面提高科技含量的基础上扩大生产规模,优化产业及产品结构,以保证磷矿资源的开发利用为今后湖北经济社会的发展做出更大贡献。
第六章湖北磷矿资源产业发展战略构建：论文指出研究湖北磷及磷化工业发展战略,绝不能就湖北论湖北,就磷矿论磷矿,而应将其放到全国乃至世界经济格局和产业格局中加以考察,这是选择发展模式、发展战略和发展路径的重要依据。论文分析了湖北社会经济发展所处阶段及其特点；湖北磷及磷化工业发展战略背景；湖北磷矿开发利用与可持续发展的主要优势和主要障碍；提出了湖北磷及磷化工业发展的战略构想：即在改革开放方针的指引下,实施以磷矿资源优势逐步转换为磷矿资源产业优势进而转变为经济优势,坚持资源要素驱动与创新驱动相结合,跨越式发展与可持续发展相结合的发展战略。并将这一战略表述为：以磷矿资源为基础,以磷化工业为依托,以国家需求为导向,以科技创新为驱动,以经济、生态效益为中心,加快磷矿开发利用的步伐；以形成结构优化的磷及磷化工产业集群为目标,促进磷及磷化工企业在开拓和竞争中成长,推动磷矿开发利用走采选结合、矿化结合、产业化、集约化的发展道路,不断提高产业核心竞争力和经济效益；协调矿业开发与生态环境保护的关系,引导与保证合理开发磷矿资源和提高资源利用率,加强环境保护和治理,实现湖北磷及磷化工业的跨越式发展与可持续发展。
第七章湖北磷矿资源产业发展路径设计：主要设计了适合湖北磷及磷化工产业发展的有效路径。主要是要素驱动—重视资源扩张,保证磷矿资源的可持续供给,夯实产业发展的资源基础；持续加强地质找矿工作,实施高质量矿床勘查战略；将大型矿集区和整装勘查区建成大型磷矿生产基地；将大型磷矿生产基地建成大型磷化工基地；创新驱动—重视和加强对中低品位磷矿的开发利用研究：加强中低品位磷矿石选矿研究：重视直接利用技术研究；加强中低品位磷矿石在磷化工中的利用研究；重视矿山环境保护工作,实施可持续发展战略；加强贯彻《矿产资源法》,扶持和管好地方小矿；加强磷矿环保立法工作,强化国家对磷矿环境监督与保护；实施科学开采,实现磷矿持续发展；强化政府在磷矿资源开发中的引导与监管作用；加快打造磷及磷化工产业集群；转变资源利用方式,提高资源利用效率；加强人力资本积累,构建区域创新技术体系；优化升级产业结构；重组区域空间结构。
本文的主要创新之处：运用资源经济学、产业经济学理论和数量经济方法研究湖北磷矿资源勘查开发与经济发展关系是本文的新探索。一是首次以单矿种为对象,就磷矿资源产业在湖北社会经济发展中的地位和作用问题,进行了特色资源和优势产业发展战略和路径选择的专题探索与研究；二是首次从磷矿资源、磷矿采选和磷矿深加工三个方面和区域和产业二个层面对磷矿资源的勘查及开发利用现状进行了系统分析,深入揭示了磷矿行业的主要特点、发展规律,包括磷矿资源分布、行业发展现状、未来发展趋势及开发利用中存在的主要问题；三是从战略制定和路径选择二个层面,首次明确提出了以“要素驱动战略”为基础,“创新驱动战略”为核心,实现湖北磷矿资源产业跨越式发展和可持续发展为目标的“双轮驱动”发展战略；并针对上述发展战略提出了以“资源扩张”、“资本运营”、“政产学研协同创新、和谐共赢”及“持续加强地质找矿工作,实施高质量矿床勘查”、“重视和加强低品位磷矿资源的开发利用”、“加快打造磷及磷化工产业集群,优化升级产业结构”,实现湖北磷及磷化工业跨越式发展和可持续发展为目标的最优路径选择。
Mining industry is the basic and pillar industry of national economy. The abundance of mineral resources as well as the depth and breadth of exploitation and utilization of the resources are directly associated with development and prosperity of regional economy. However, mineral resources are nonrenewable resources. Only by ensuring sustainable use of mineral resources, can social economy develop sustainably. While in traditional economic development model, development of economy was over-dependent on consumption of resources and energy and the development was characterized by resource consumption and pursuit of quantity growth of economy. Therefore, a lot of resources were wasted and environmental pollution was brought, even though the economy was growing. At present, with population increasing and industrialization process speeding up, human's demand for resources is still on the rise. How to ensure sustainable use of mineral resources has become an important hurdle that needs to be resolved urgently in the development of social economy, In order to solve the hurdle, practical evaluations on the relation between mineral resources and economic development, supporting role, pulling function, contribution portion of mineral resources on economic development, as well as the resources' bearing capacity and influence on economy and environment development shall be made in the first place. However, research on them is full of complexity and requires further exploration.
Research on industry development strategies has been one of the key and hot spots of industrial economics. Some scholars studying contemporary industrial strategies hold that people at the moment have entered a strategic-priority period. Because in present times, due to integration of resources and markets, as well as their finiteness, the extreme scarcity of resources, intensive competition in markets and rapid deterioration of living and development environment are thus brought. So, persons who do not seek profits on a global scale are not capable of seeking profits in their regions and persons who do not seek long-term interests are not capable of seeking immediate interests. Focusing on and improving strategic studies on industrial development has become the academic frontier and research emphasis of industrial economics.
Phosphate rock is an important and indispensable strategic resource. It has a very important role and status in phosphorous chemical industry and national food production security. Many countries have listed phosphate rock as a strategic resource. China has also listed it in the20shortage minerals which could not meet the development demands of the national economy after2010. Besides, China restricts its exportation through quota arrangements. A series of down-stream products made of phosphate rock are widely used in such fields as agriculture, chemical industry, medicine and food. Increase of demand for phosphate fertilizer directly influences consumption of phosphate rock, especially under the agricultural production of the shrinkage of land and expansion of cultivation of phosphorous crops in many countries and regions due to rise of global population and acceleration of industrialization process. Therefore, sustainable exploitation and utilization of phosphate rock is closely associated with world food security and human's development. As for development and utilization situation of phosphate rock of China, its longitudinal ratio develops quickly. In addition, greater progress has been made and demonstrable results have been achieved with it. However, compared with developed countries, the development and utilization of phosphate rock of China is still at a lower level. Therefore, looked from the geographic distribution, economic development degree and conditions of demand, the scarcity of phosphate rock is obvious.
Hubei is one of a few provinces with abundant phosphate rock in China. As one great phosphate rock storage and capacity province, Hubei has obvious phosphate rock advantages. Phosphate and phosphorous chemical industry has been one of the minerals of superiority and leading industries in Hubei. Hubei Provincial Government successively formulated and issued special documents for development and utilization of phosphate rock and development of phosphorous chemical industry in different historical periods. For example, among the seven mono-block exploration projects implemented in2011, phosphate rock ones take four. But how do people change the resource advantages efficiently into industrial and economic advantages as soon as possible? How do phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries in Hubei respond to great-leap-forward and sustainable development strategies of the provincial government to realize leapfrog development of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries and sustainable development and utilization of phosphorous mineral resources? For the above major scientific problems, it is of great theoretical and realistic meaning to carry out exploration and practice which focus on development strategies and path choices of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries.
As the integral planning of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries of Hubei in the new period, this paper, according to analyses of the situations of Hubei, mineral situations and environment status of mining at home and abroad, aims at promoting and realizing leapfrog development of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries in Hubei. Based on traits of spatial distribution of phosphate rock in Hubei and their exploitation and utilization situations, the paper uses theories and methods of resource economics, industry economics, quantitative economics and industrial comparative advantages to probe into the contribution, driving force of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries on economic and social development, capacity index system and evaluation model. Besides, it quantitatively analyzes and evaluates the status and prospect of contribution, driving force and capacity, and establishes phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries'important leading position in the sustainable development strategies of Hubei's economy as well its significant role in driving the economic and social development of Hubei. What's more, it focuses on the research on development strategies and implementation paths of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries in Hubei so as to provide theoretical foundations and decision bases for the provincial government and relevant departments to compile industrial development planning and promote the leapfrog development of the industry and sustainable utilization of phosphorous resources.
Therefore, the author adopts the research methods of combining empirical analyses with theoretical analyses, and qualitative analyses with quantitative analyses. With more than1year spent on lots of investigations and research, the author collected lots of relevant data and further understood and commanded the real situations of Hubei's phosphorous resources and economic development. Then, on that basis, the author uses relevant theories of resource economics and industrial economics to conduct intensive studies on related topics in order to provide the research with a solid foundation, a higher starting point and an open mind thus giving the research results strong theoretical and practical significance. Research contents of the paper are based on development and exploitation of phosphorous resources and promotion of transformation of phosphorous resources from resource advantages to industrial advantages and economic advantages. Meanwhile, Hubei's phosphorous and phosphorous industries'driving force, contribution, capacity and competitiveness to its economic development are analyzed and evaluated from the macro and micro levels and from qualitative and quantitative angles. In addition, development strategies and effective paths towards phosphorous and phosphorous industries in Hubei in the new era are proposed.
The paper consists of eight parts. The first part is preface. The second part is theoretical and empirical analyses of phosphorous resource consumption and economic development. Part three is analyses of the whole country and Hubei's phosphorous resource situations. Part four is status and role of phosphorous resources in Hubei's economic and social development. The fifth part is forecast of demand of Hubei's economic and social development for phosphorous resources. The sixth part is analyses of driving force and contribution of phosphorous resources to Hubei's economic and social development. Party seven is optimal development strategies for phosphorous resource industries. The last part is optimal development paths for phosphorous resource industries of Hubei province.
The preface mainly includes research background, purposes and significance of this paper. It illustrates technical routes and methods of the research paper. In addition, it proposes clearly that implementing rise-of-central-China initiative is an important strategic decision that Hubei Provincial Committee Party and Provincial Government has made at the turn of the century. Either economically or politically, this decision is of great practical significance and profound historical meaning. In Chinese macro-economic development pattern, Hubei's phosphorous resources have distinct advantages. And the resources distribute concentrically and lay a resource foundation for formation of characteristic pillar industries.
Section one is about theoretical and empirical analyses of phosphorous resource consumption and economic development. First of all, theoretical bases of research on development and utilization of phosphorous resources are collated. This part mainly illustrates the relation between mineral resource consumption and economic development, phrase and structure evolution of industrialization, development strategies and route selection of industrialization, resource advantages and regional industrialization. Besides, it also discusses strategic ambitions and priorities of regional sustainable development, advantage orientation strategy mode of regional development, and exploitation and utilization of phosphorous resources which could promote economic development. At last, it empirically analyzes the relation between phosphorous resource consumption and economic development, and basic factors influencing phosphorous resource consumption, as well as basic laws of phosphorous resource consumption, etc.
Section two is about analyses of China and Hubei's phosphorous resource situations. In this section, the trend and focus of exploitation and utilization of phosphorous resources at home and abroad are comprehensively reviewed. It mainly analyzes national phosphorous resource situations and points out that China and Hubei's phosphorous resources are characterized by abundant reserves, relative concentric distribution, poor quality, high selection cost and rich category of deposits. However, most deposits are sedimentary phosphate ores. Accompanying resources are rich and many of them are available. Exploitation and utilization of China and Hubei's phosphorous resources are discussed from such aspects as capacity and output of main production areas, phosphorous consumption and export, development and utilization situations of low and middle grade phosphate, and supply-demand situations of Chinese phosphate are investigated from demand forecasting and resource guarantee degree, etc. It points out that geological exploration of phosphate has gained remarkable achievements and resource integration initial success. It also reveals that phosphorous and phosphorous resource industries develop rapidly and exploitation and utilization of phosphate have promoted the development of local economy and society. However, the industries are confronted with challenging and grim situations. Due to high extraction cost, extensive resource utilization patterns, low resource utilization, serious waste of resources, resource integration needs to be improved urgently. Furthermore, exploitation and utilization of low and middle grade phosphate is imperative and refinement has become the inexorable trend of development of phosphorous chemical industries. And the contradiction between resource exploitation and ecological environment protection becomes increasingly conspicuous.
Section three is about status and role of phosphorous resources in Hubei's economic and social development. In this part, basic situations and main characteristics of phosphorous resources of Hubei are analyzed, as well as status, potential and existing problems of phosphate exploitation. The section mainly illustrates forecast of demand of Hubei's economic and social development for phosphate and analyzes the affordance of the resources. It elaborates economic assessment on phosphate in Hubei and status and role of phosphate in Hubei's economic development. It also illustrates that the goal system of sustainable social and economic development of Hubei can be ensured through phosphorous resources.
Section four is about forecast of demand of Hubei's economic and social development for phosphorous resources. In this part, the relation between phosphorous resource demand and supply is analyzed, including evaluation on affordance of explored phosphate, metallogenic prospect, and total phosphorous resource prediction. And the guarantee degree of phosphorous resources meeting development demand of phosphorous chemical industries, analyses of supply capacity of minerals and demand analyses of phosphate are included. Besides, forecasts of such demands as demand of social and economic development for use and consumption of phosphorous resources and for development of phosphorous chemical industry, demand of development of phosphorous chemical industry for phosphorous resources and demand for phosphorite are included as well. What's more, main bases and basic principles of demand forecasts of phosphorite, establishment of demand forecasting model are also illustrated in this section, as well as demand forecasts of regional economic development for phosphorite, of social and economic development of Hubei for phosphorite and of Hubei's phosphorous chemical industry.
Section five is about analyses of driving force and contributions of phosphorous resources to Hubei's economic and social development. The section mainly discusses the driving force and contributions of phosphate to Hubei's social and economic development. Through comments on direct and indirect contributions of phosphorite to Hubei's social and economic development, it is proved that during Hubei's social and economic development, exploitation and utilization of phosphorite plays a very important supporting and driving role. With the strategy of rising of central China and leapfrog development strategy being deepened gradually, Hubei still needs to rely on phosphorous resources, one mineral of superiority. Based on comprehensive improvement of technology content, enlarging production scale and optimizing industry and product structure can ensure that exploitation and utilization of phosphorite could make greater contributions to Hubei's future economic and social development.
Section six is about optimal development strategies for Hubei's phosphorous resource industry. The paper points out that when conducting research on development strategies of Hubei's phosphorous resource industry, one should not discuss Hubei's phosphorite and phosphorous resource industry only as it is. Instead, one should put the research in national and world patterns for investigations, which is important to select development models, development strategies and development routes. The paper analyzes the stage where Hubei's social and economic development stays in, as well as the development's characteristics. It also analyzes the background of development strategies of Hubei's phosphorous resource industry and major advantages and obstacles of sustainable exploitation and utilization of Hubei's phosphorite. Besides, the paper proposes strategic concepts for the development of Hubei's phosphorous resource industry as follows. Under the guidance of the policy of reform and opening, the phosphorous resource advantages shall be transformed into phosphorus resource industry advantages and economic advantages. In addition, the combination of resource factor-driven model with innovation-driven one shall be adhered to, as well as the strategy of combination of leapfrog development and sustainable development. What's more, the paper describes the strategy as follows. Based on phosphorite and driven by technological innovation, the national demand-oriented strategy, depending on phosphorous chemical industry, centers on economic and ecological benefits and aims to accelerate exploitation and utilization of phosphorite. Taking forming structure optimized phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industry clusters as a goal, the strategy promotes growth of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries in innovation and competition. The strategy also pushes forward exploitation and utilization of phosphorite towards the development path of combining extraction with selection, mineralization, industrialization and intensification to constantly improve the industry's core competitiveness and economic benefits. Besides, the strategy coordinates the relation between mining development and ecological environment protection, guides and ensures rational phosphorous resource exploitation. It also improves resource utilization, strengthens environmental protection and governance to realize leapfrog development and sustainable development of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries.
Section seven is about optimal development paths for Hubei's phosphorous resource industry. In this part, effective paths suitable for development of Hubei's phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries are designed. Specifically speaking, For factor-driven model, attaching importance to resource expansion, ensuring sustainable phosphorous resource supply, consolidating resource bases for industry development, keeping strengthening geological prospecting work and implementing high quality deposit exploration strategies are all included. In addition, establishing large ore-concentrated areas and mono-block exploration areas into large phosphorite production bases and large phosphorite production bases into large phosphorous chemical bases are covered in the paths. For innovation-driven model, research on exploitation and utilization of low and middle grade phosphorite shall be strengthened. In other words,.research on low and middle grade phosphate rock selection shall be strengthened. In particular, research on utilization of low and middle grade phosphate rock in phosphorous chemical industry shall be strengthened; attention shall be paid to mine environment protection and sustainable development strategies implemented. In addition, Mineral Resource Law shall be carried out and local small mines shall be supported and managed well. Moreover, strengthening phosphorous environmental legislation, reinforcing national environment supervision and protection towards phosphorite and implementing scientific extraction and realizing sustainable development of phosphorous resources are listed in the paths. And strengthening governments' role in guiding and supervising exploitation of phosphorous resources, accelerating the building of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industry clusters and transforming resource utilization patterns and improving resource utilization efficiency are parts of the paths as well. Last but not least, enhancing accumulation of human capital, establishing regional technical innovation systems, improving and upgrading industry structure and reorganizing regional spatial structure are irresistible according to the paths.
The main innovation of this paper lies in the use of resource economics, industrial economics theory and quantitative economic methods to study the relation between extraction and exploitation of Hubei's phosphorous resources and economic development. The relation is the new exploration of this research paper for the following reasons. First of all, single minerals are taken as studying objects for the first time. As for the position and role of phosphorite and phosphorous chemical industry in Hubei's social and economic development, theme exploration and research on development strategies and path choices of characteristic resource and advantage industries are conducted. Secondly, it is the first time to systematically analyze the present situations of exploration and utilization of phosphorous resources on regional and industrial levels and from the three aspects:phosphorous resources, selection of phosphorite and deep processing of phosphorite. And main characteristics and development laws of phosphorous industry are deeply explored, including distribution of phosphorous resources, the industry's development status, future development trends and main problems with the resources'extraction and exploitation. Thirdly, Hubei's phosphorous resource development strategies are explicitly proposed for the first time. Centering on innovation-driven strategy, the strategies are based on factor-driven strategy and aimed at realizing leapfrog development and sustainable development of Hubei's phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries. Besides, for the above development strategies, optimal path choices aimed at resource expansion, capital operation, scientific research and collaborative innovation, harmony and win-win and consistent enforcement of geological prospecting work are put forward. What's more, implementing high quality deposit exploration, strengthening exploitation and utilization of low grade phosphorous resources and accelerating the building of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industry clusters are proposed. Apart from these, optimizing and upgrading industry structure are also put forward, as well as realizing leapfrog development and sustainable development of Hubei's phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries.
对产业发展战略的研究,一直是产业经济学的重点和热点之一。一些当代产业战略研究学者认为,目前已经进入了战略优先的时代。因为在当今时代,由于资源与市场的一体化和有限性,造成了资源的极度稀缺、市场的激烈竞争和生存与发展环境的急剧恶化。因此,“不谋寰宇者不足以谋本域,不谋长远者不足以谋当前”。重视和加强产业发展的战略研究已成为产业经济学的学科前沿和研究重点。
磷矿资源是一种重要的、不可或缺的战略资源,在磷化学工业和国家粮食生产安全中占有极其重要的地位和作用。许多国家已经将磷矿资源列为战略资源。我国也已将其列为2010年后不能满足国民经济发展需求的20个紧缺矿种之一,以配额方式限制出口。磷矿资源的一系列下游产品在农业、化工、医药、食品等领域有着广泛的应用,尤其是在全球人口增长、工业化进程加快导致耕地面积缩减及诸多国家、地区对喜磷作物扩大种植的农业生产形势下,对磷肥需求的增长直接影响到磷矿资源的消费,所以磷矿资源的可持续开发利用直接关系到世界粮食安全及人类的生产发展。我国磷矿资源开发利用的现状是纵向比发展快、进步大、成效显著,有自己的特色优势。但与国外发达国家比,我国磷矿资源的开发利用仍处于较低水平。而且从磷矿资源的地理分布及经济发展及对磷矿资源的需求情况看,磷矿资源具有明显的稀缺性。
湖北是我国最主要的磷矿资源富集省份之一。做为我国磷矿资源储量、产能大省的湖北,磷矿资源优势十分明显,磷及磷化工业一直是湖北的优势矿种和主导产业之一,这从湖北省政府在不同历史时期先后多次就磷矿资源开发利用和磷及磷化工业发展制定和颁布专门文件,2011年首批实施的7个整装勘查项目中磷矿资源勘查项目就占了4个即可得到佐证。但怎么尽快将这种资源优势有效地转化为产业优势和经济优势?湖北磷及磷化工业如何响应省委、省政府的跨越式发展和可持续发展战略,实现磷及磷化工业的跨越式发展和磷矿资源的可持续开发利用?针对上述重大科学问题,进行以磷及磷化工业发展战略与路径选择为重点的探索与实践,具有重大的理论与现实意义。
做为新时期湖北磷及磷化工业的整体谋划,本文旨在通过对湖北磷及磷化工业的历史与现状的较全面系统的回顾与总结,依据湖北省情、矿情和国内外矿业环境现状分析,以推进和实现湖北磷及磷化工业的跨越式发展和磷矿资源的可持续开发利用为研究目标,以湖北磷矿资源的时空分布特点与开发利用现状分析为基础,应用资源经济学、产业经济学、数量经济学和产业比较优势的理论和方法,探索建立磷及磷化工业对经济社会发展的贡献力、拉动力、承载力指标体系和评价模型,并对湖北磷矿资源勘查开发对经济社会发展的贡献率、拉动力及承载力现状及前景进行定量分析与评价。确立磷及磷化工业在湖北经济社会可持续发展战略中的重要基础地位和对湖北经济社会发展的重大拉动作用。重点研究湖北磷及磷化工业发展战略及实现路径。从而为省政府及有关部门编制产业发展规划提供理论支撑和决策依据,推动湖北磷及磷化工业的跨越式发展和磷矿资源的可持续开发利用。
为此,笔者运用实证分析和理论分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法,用1年多的时间进行了大量的调查研究工作,收集了大量的有关资料,并深入了解和掌握了有关湖北磷矿资源与经济发展的实际情况。在此基础上,再运用相关资源经济学和产业经济学理论进行了相关专题的深入研究,力求使研究工作有较坚实的基础、较高的起点和较开阔的思路,使研究成果具有较强的理论意义和实用价值。本文的研究内容,贯穿磷矿资源勘查开发与经济发展密切相关和促进湖北磷矿资源优势向产业优势和经济优势转换这一研究主线,同时也较系统地从宏观和微观两个层次,定性和定量两种角度进行了湖北磷及磷化工业对湖北经济发展拉动力、贡献率、承载力、竞争力的分析和评价,提出了新时期湖北磷及磷化工业的发展战略和有效路径。
论文共分八个部分。第一部分为前言,第二部分为磷矿资源消费与经济发展的理论与实证分析,第三部分是全国及湖北省磷矿资源形势分析,第四部分是磷及磷化工业在湖北经济社会发展中的地位和作用,第五部分是湖北经济社会发展对磷矿资源的需求预测,第六部分磷及磷化工业对湖北经济社会发展的拉动力与贡献率分析,第七部分为湖北磷及磷化工业的最优发展战略,第八部分为湖北省磷及磷化工业的最佳发展路径。
前言部分主要包括论文的研究背景、目的及其意义。阐述论文研究的技术路线与方法。提出论文的创新点。明确提出实施中部率先战略,是湖北省委、省政府在世纪之交把握大局,不失时机做出的重大战略决策。无论在经济上,还是在政治上,都具有重大的现实意义和深远的历史意义。在我国的宏观经济发展格局中,湖北省的磷矿资源比较优势突出,分布相对集中,具有形成特色支柱产业的资源基础。
第一章矿产资源消费与经济发展的理论与实证分析：首先对磷矿资源开发利用研究的理论基础进行梳理。主要阐述了矿产资源消费与经济发展关系；工业化的阶段及结构演变；工业化的发展战略和路径选择；资源优势与区域工业化；区域可持续发展的战略目标和重点；区域发展的优势导向战略模式；促进经济发展的磷矿资源开发利用；磷及磷化工业是湖北经济的重要支柱产业；磷矿资源消费与经济发展关系的实证分析；影响磷矿资源消费的基本因素；磷矿资源消费的基本规律等。
第二章全国及湖北磷矿资源形势分析：综合评述了国内外磷矿资源开发利用的重点和趋势。主要进行了全国磷矿资源形势分析；指出全国及湖北磷矿资源的主要禀赋特点是资源丰富,分布相对集中；磷矿资源质量差,采选成本高；矿床类型齐全,但以沉积磷块岩矿床为主：伴生资源丰富,可利用的伴生资源多。从主要产区产能、产量及消费、磷的出口贸易、中低品位磷矿开发利用现状等方面探讨了全国及湖北磷矿资源开发利用情况；从需求预测、资源保证程度等方面探讨了我国磷矿资源的供需形势。指出磷矿资源地质勘查成就显著；资源整合工作初见成效；磷及磷化工业发展迅速；磷矿开发利用促进了地方经济社会发展；但亦面临着不容乐观的严峻形势：开采成本偏高,资源利用方式粗放,资源利用率低,资源浪费严重；资源整合力度亟需加强；中低品位磷矿开发利用势在必行；精细化已成为磷化工发展的必然方向；资源开发与生态环境保护矛盾日益突出。
第三章磷矿资源产业在湖北经济社会发展中的地位和作用：分析了湖北磷矿资源的基本情况和主要特点,磷矿资源开发的现状、潜力和存在的问题。主要阐述了湖北经济社会发展对磷矿资源的需求预测及可供性分析；湖北磷矿资源经济评价；磷矿资源在湖北经济发展中的地位和作用；磷矿资源保证湖北经济社会可持续发展的目标体系。
第四章湖北经济社会发展对磷矿资源的需求预测：主要进行了磷矿资源供应与需求关系分析,包括已探明磷矿资源的可供性评价、成矿远景和资源总量预测、磷矿资源满足磷化工发展需求的保证程度、矿产品供应能力分析、磷矿资源需求分析、社会经济发展对磷矿资源的使用和消费需求、社会经济发展对磷化工业发展的需求、磷化工发展对磷矿资源的需求、磷矿资源需求预测；磷矿资源需求预测的主要依据及基本原则；需求预测模型的建立和区域经济发展对磷矿资源的需求预测、湖北经济社会发展对磷矿资源的需求预测、湖北磷化工(磷肥)需求预测。
第五章磷矿资源产业对湖北经济社会发展的拉动力与贡献率分析：主要探讨了磷及磷化工业对湖北经济社会发展的拉动力及贡献率；通过对磷及磷化工(磷肥)对湖北经济发展的直接和间接贡献力评价证明：湖北社会经济发展过程中,磷矿资源的开发利用起到了非常重要的支撑和拉动作用。随着“中部崛起”战略及跨越式发展战略的不断深入,湖北仍需依靠磷矿资源这一优势矿种,在全面提高科技含量的基础上扩大生产规模,优化产业及产品结构,以保证磷矿资源的开发利用为今后湖北经济社会的发展做出更大贡献。
第六章湖北磷矿资源产业发展战略构建：论文指出研究湖北磷及磷化工业发展战略,绝不能就湖北论湖北,就磷矿论磷矿,而应将其放到全国乃至世界经济格局和产业格局中加以考察,这是选择发展模式、发展战略和发展路径的重要依据。论文分析了湖北社会经济发展所处阶段及其特点；湖北磷及磷化工业发展战略背景；湖北磷矿开发利用与可持续发展的主要优势和主要障碍；提出了湖北磷及磷化工业发展的战略构想：即在改革开放方针的指引下,实施以磷矿资源优势逐步转换为磷矿资源产业优势进而转变为经济优势,坚持资源要素驱动与创新驱动相结合,跨越式发展与可持续发展相结合的发展战略。并将这一战略表述为：以磷矿资源为基础,以磷化工业为依托,以国家需求为导向,以科技创新为驱动,以经济、生态效益为中心,加快磷矿开发利用的步伐；以形成结构优化的磷及磷化工产业集群为目标,促进磷及磷化工企业在开拓和竞争中成长,推动磷矿开发利用走采选结合、矿化结合、产业化、集约化的发展道路,不断提高产业核心竞争力和经济效益；协调矿业开发与生态环境保护的关系,引导与保证合理开发磷矿资源和提高资源利用率,加强环境保护和治理,实现湖北磷及磷化工业的跨越式发展与可持续发展。
第七章湖北磷矿资源产业发展路径设计：主要设计了适合湖北磷及磷化工产业发展的有效路径。主要是要素驱动—重视资源扩张,保证磷矿资源的可持续供给,夯实产业发展的资源基础；持续加强地质找矿工作,实施高质量矿床勘查战略；将大型矿集区和整装勘查区建成大型磷矿生产基地；将大型磷矿生产基地建成大型磷化工基地；创新驱动—重视和加强对中低品位磷矿的开发利用研究：加强中低品位磷矿石选矿研究：重视直接利用技术研究；加强中低品位磷矿石在磷化工中的利用研究；重视矿山环境保护工作,实施可持续发展战略；加强贯彻《矿产资源法》,扶持和管好地方小矿；加强磷矿环保立法工作,强化国家对磷矿环境监督与保护；实施科学开采,实现磷矿持续发展；强化政府在磷矿资源开发中的引导与监管作用；加快打造磷及磷化工产业集群；转变资源利用方式,提高资源利用效率；加强人力资本积累,构建区域创新技术体系；优化升级产业结构；重组区域空间结构。
本文的主要创新之处：运用资源经济学、产业经济学理论和数量经济方法研究湖北磷矿资源勘查开发与经济发展关系是本文的新探索。一是首次以单矿种为对象,就磷矿资源产业在湖北社会经济发展中的地位和作用问题,进行了特色资源和优势产业发展战略和路径选择的专题探索与研究；二是首次从磷矿资源、磷矿采选和磷矿深加工三个方面和区域和产业二个层面对磷矿资源的勘查及开发利用现状进行了系统分析,深入揭示了磷矿行业的主要特点、发展规律,包括磷矿资源分布、行业发展现状、未来发展趋势及开发利用中存在的主要问题；三是从战略制定和路径选择二个层面,首次明确提出了以“要素驱动战略”为基础,“创新驱动战略”为核心,实现湖北磷矿资源产业跨越式发展和可持续发展为目标的“双轮驱动”发展战略；并针对上述发展战略提出了以“资源扩张”、“资本运营”、“政产学研协同创新、和谐共赢”及“持续加强地质找矿工作,实施高质量矿床勘查”、“重视和加强低品位磷矿资源的开发利用”、“加快打造磷及磷化工产业集群,优化升级产业结构”,实现湖北磷及磷化工业跨越式发展和可持续发展为目标的最优路径选择。
Mining industry is the basic and pillar industry of national economy. The abundance of mineral resources as well as the depth and breadth of exploitation and utilization of the resources are directly associated with development and prosperity of regional economy. However, mineral resources are nonrenewable resources. Only by ensuring sustainable use of mineral resources, can social economy develop sustainably. While in traditional economic development model, development of economy was over-dependent on consumption of resources and energy and the development was characterized by resource consumption and pursuit of quantity growth of economy. Therefore, a lot of resources were wasted and environmental pollution was brought, even though the economy was growing. At present, with population increasing and industrialization process speeding up, human's demand for resources is still on the rise. How to ensure sustainable use of mineral resources has become an important hurdle that needs to be resolved urgently in the development of social economy, In order to solve the hurdle, practical evaluations on the relation between mineral resources and economic development, supporting role, pulling function, contribution portion of mineral resources on economic development, as well as the resources' bearing capacity and influence on economy and environment development shall be made in the first place. However, research on them is full of complexity and requires further exploration.
Research on industry development strategies has been one of the key and hot spots of industrial economics. Some scholars studying contemporary industrial strategies hold that people at the moment have entered a strategic-priority period. Because in present times, due to integration of resources and markets, as well as their finiteness, the extreme scarcity of resources, intensive competition in markets and rapid deterioration of living and development environment are thus brought. So, persons who do not seek profits on a global scale are not capable of seeking profits in their regions and persons who do not seek long-term interests are not capable of seeking immediate interests. Focusing on and improving strategic studies on industrial development has become the academic frontier and research emphasis of industrial economics.
Phosphate rock is an important and indispensable strategic resource. It has a very important role and status in phosphorous chemical industry and national food production security. Many countries have listed phosphate rock as a strategic resource. China has also listed it in the20shortage minerals which could not meet the development demands of the national economy after2010. Besides, China restricts its exportation through quota arrangements. A series of down-stream products made of phosphate rock are widely used in such fields as agriculture, chemical industry, medicine and food. Increase of demand for phosphate fertilizer directly influences consumption of phosphate rock, especially under the agricultural production of the shrinkage of land and expansion of cultivation of phosphorous crops in many countries and regions due to rise of global population and acceleration of industrialization process. Therefore, sustainable exploitation and utilization of phosphate rock is closely associated with world food security and human's development. As for development and utilization situation of phosphate rock of China, its longitudinal ratio develops quickly. In addition, greater progress has been made and demonstrable results have been achieved with it. However, compared with developed countries, the development and utilization of phosphate rock of China is still at a lower level. Therefore, looked from the geographic distribution, economic development degree and conditions of demand, the scarcity of phosphate rock is obvious.
Hubei is one of a few provinces with abundant phosphate rock in China. As one great phosphate rock storage and capacity province, Hubei has obvious phosphate rock advantages. Phosphate and phosphorous chemical industry has been one of the minerals of superiority and leading industries in Hubei. Hubei Provincial Government successively formulated and issued special documents for development and utilization of phosphate rock and development of phosphorous chemical industry in different historical periods. For example, among the seven mono-block exploration projects implemented in2011, phosphate rock ones take four. But how do people change the resource advantages efficiently into industrial and economic advantages as soon as possible? How do phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries in Hubei respond to great-leap-forward and sustainable development strategies of the provincial government to realize leapfrog development of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries and sustainable development and utilization of phosphorous mineral resources? For the above major scientific problems, it is of great theoretical and realistic meaning to carry out exploration and practice which focus on development strategies and path choices of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries.
As the integral planning of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries of Hubei in the new period, this paper, according to analyses of the situations of Hubei, mineral situations and environment status of mining at home and abroad, aims at promoting and realizing leapfrog development of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries in Hubei. Based on traits of spatial distribution of phosphate rock in Hubei and their exploitation and utilization situations, the paper uses theories and methods of resource economics, industry economics, quantitative economics and industrial comparative advantages to probe into the contribution, driving force of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries on economic and social development, capacity index system and evaluation model. Besides, it quantitatively analyzes and evaluates the status and prospect of contribution, driving force and capacity, and establishes phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries'important leading position in the sustainable development strategies of Hubei's economy as well its significant role in driving the economic and social development of Hubei. What's more, it focuses on the research on development strategies and implementation paths of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries in Hubei so as to provide theoretical foundations and decision bases for the provincial government and relevant departments to compile industrial development planning and promote the leapfrog development of the industry and sustainable utilization of phosphorous resources.
Therefore, the author adopts the research methods of combining empirical analyses with theoretical analyses, and qualitative analyses with quantitative analyses. With more than1year spent on lots of investigations and research, the author collected lots of relevant data and further understood and commanded the real situations of Hubei's phosphorous resources and economic development. Then, on that basis, the author uses relevant theories of resource economics and industrial economics to conduct intensive studies on related topics in order to provide the research with a solid foundation, a higher starting point and an open mind thus giving the research results strong theoretical and practical significance. Research contents of the paper are based on development and exploitation of phosphorous resources and promotion of transformation of phosphorous resources from resource advantages to industrial advantages and economic advantages. Meanwhile, Hubei's phosphorous and phosphorous industries'driving force, contribution, capacity and competitiveness to its economic development are analyzed and evaluated from the macro and micro levels and from qualitative and quantitative angles. In addition, development strategies and effective paths towards phosphorous and phosphorous industries in Hubei in the new era are proposed.
The paper consists of eight parts. The first part is preface. The second part is theoretical and empirical analyses of phosphorous resource consumption and economic development. Part three is analyses of the whole country and Hubei's phosphorous resource situations. Part four is status and role of phosphorous resources in Hubei's economic and social development. The fifth part is forecast of demand of Hubei's economic and social development for phosphorous resources. The sixth part is analyses of driving force and contribution of phosphorous resources to Hubei's economic and social development. Party seven is optimal development strategies for phosphorous resource industries. The last part is optimal development paths for phosphorous resource industries of Hubei province.
The preface mainly includes research background, purposes and significance of this paper. It illustrates technical routes and methods of the research paper. In addition, it proposes clearly that implementing rise-of-central-China initiative is an important strategic decision that Hubei Provincial Committee Party and Provincial Government has made at the turn of the century. Either economically or politically, this decision is of great practical significance and profound historical meaning. In Chinese macro-economic development pattern, Hubei's phosphorous resources have distinct advantages. And the resources distribute concentrically and lay a resource foundation for formation of characteristic pillar industries.
Section one is about theoretical and empirical analyses of phosphorous resource consumption and economic development. First of all, theoretical bases of research on development and utilization of phosphorous resources are collated. This part mainly illustrates the relation between mineral resource consumption and economic development, phrase and structure evolution of industrialization, development strategies and route selection of industrialization, resource advantages and regional industrialization. Besides, it also discusses strategic ambitions and priorities of regional sustainable development, advantage orientation strategy mode of regional development, and exploitation and utilization of phosphorous resources which could promote economic development. At last, it empirically analyzes the relation between phosphorous resource consumption and economic development, and basic factors influencing phosphorous resource consumption, as well as basic laws of phosphorous resource consumption, etc.
Section two is about analyses of China and Hubei's phosphorous resource situations. In this section, the trend and focus of exploitation and utilization of phosphorous resources at home and abroad are comprehensively reviewed. It mainly analyzes national phosphorous resource situations and points out that China and Hubei's phosphorous resources are characterized by abundant reserves, relative concentric distribution, poor quality, high selection cost and rich category of deposits. However, most deposits are sedimentary phosphate ores. Accompanying resources are rich and many of them are available. Exploitation and utilization of China and Hubei's phosphorous resources are discussed from such aspects as capacity and output of main production areas, phosphorous consumption and export, development and utilization situations of low and middle grade phosphate, and supply-demand situations of Chinese phosphate are investigated from demand forecasting and resource guarantee degree, etc. It points out that geological exploration of phosphate has gained remarkable achievements and resource integration initial success. It also reveals that phosphorous and phosphorous resource industries develop rapidly and exploitation and utilization of phosphate have promoted the development of local economy and society. However, the industries are confronted with challenging and grim situations. Due to high extraction cost, extensive resource utilization patterns, low resource utilization, serious waste of resources, resource integration needs to be improved urgently. Furthermore, exploitation and utilization of low and middle grade phosphate is imperative and refinement has become the inexorable trend of development of phosphorous chemical industries. And the contradiction between resource exploitation and ecological environment protection becomes increasingly conspicuous.
Section three is about status and role of phosphorous resources in Hubei's economic and social development. In this part, basic situations and main characteristics of phosphorous resources of Hubei are analyzed, as well as status, potential and existing problems of phosphate exploitation. The section mainly illustrates forecast of demand of Hubei's economic and social development for phosphate and analyzes the affordance of the resources. It elaborates economic assessment on phosphate in Hubei and status and role of phosphate in Hubei's economic development. It also illustrates that the goal system of sustainable social and economic development of Hubei can be ensured through phosphorous resources.
Section four is about forecast of demand of Hubei's economic and social development for phosphorous resources. In this part, the relation between phosphorous resource demand and supply is analyzed, including evaluation on affordance of explored phosphate, metallogenic prospect, and total phosphorous resource prediction. And the guarantee degree of phosphorous resources meeting development demand of phosphorous chemical industries, analyses of supply capacity of minerals and demand analyses of phosphate are included. Besides, forecasts of such demands as demand of social and economic development for use and consumption of phosphorous resources and for development of phosphorous chemical industry, demand of development of phosphorous chemical industry for phosphorous resources and demand for phosphorite are included as well. What's more, main bases and basic principles of demand forecasts of phosphorite, establishment of demand forecasting model are also illustrated in this section, as well as demand forecasts of regional economic development for phosphorite, of social and economic development of Hubei for phosphorite and of Hubei's phosphorous chemical industry.
Section five is about analyses of driving force and contributions of phosphorous resources to Hubei's economic and social development. The section mainly discusses the driving force and contributions of phosphate to Hubei's social and economic development. Through comments on direct and indirect contributions of phosphorite to Hubei's social and economic development, it is proved that during Hubei's social and economic development, exploitation and utilization of phosphorite plays a very important supporting and driving role. With the strategy of rising of central China and leapfrog development strategy being deepened gradually, Hubei still needs to rely on phosphorous resources, one mineral of superiority. Based on comprehensive improvement of technology content, enlarging production scale and optimizing industry and product structure can ensure that exploitation and utilization of phosphorite could make greater contributions to Hubei's future economic and social development.
Section six is about optimal development strategies for Hubei's phosphorous resource industry. The paper points out that when conducting research on development strategies of Hubei's phosphorous resource industry, one should not discuss Hubei's phosphorite and phosphorous resource industry only as it is. Instead, one should put the research in national and world patterns for investigations, which is important to select development models, development strategies and development routes. The paper analyzes the stage where Hubei's social and economic development stays in, as well as the development's characteristics. It also analyzes the background of development strategies of Hubei's phosphorous resource industry and major advantages and obstacles of sustainable exploitation and utilization of Hubei's phosphorite. Besides, the paper proposes strategic concepts for the development of Hubei's phosphorous resource industry as follows. Under the guidance of the policy of reform and opening, the phosphorous resource advantages shall be transformed into phosphorus resource industry advantages and economic advantages. In addition, the combination of resource factor-driven model with innovation-driven one shall be adhered to, as well as the strategy of combination of leapfrog development and sustainable development. What's more, the paper describes the strategy as follows. Based on phosphorite and driven by technological innovation, the national demand-oriented strategy, depending on phosphorous chemical industry, centers on economic and ecological benefits and aims to accelerate exploitation and utilization of phosphorite. Taking forming structure optimized phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industry clusters as a goal, the strategy promotes growth of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries in innovation and competition. The strategy also pushes forward exploitation and utilization of phosphorite towards the development path of combining extraction with selection, mineralization, industrialization and intensification to constantly improve the industry's core competitiveness and economic benefits. Besides, the strategy coordinates the relation between mining development and ecological environment protection, guides and ensures rational phosphorous resource exploitation. It also improves resource utilization, strengthens environmental protection and governance to realize leapfrog development and sustainable development of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries.
Section seven is about optimal development paths for Hubei's phosphorous resource industry. In this part, effective paths suitable for development of Hubei's phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries are designed. Specifically speaking, For factor-driven model, attaching importance to resource expansion, ensuring sustainable phosphorous resource supply, consolidating resource bases for industry development, keeping strengthening geological prospecting work and implementing high quality deposit exploration strategies are all included. In addition, establishing large ore-concentrated areas and mono-block exploration areas into large phosphorite production bases and large phosphorite production bases into large phosphorous chemical bases are covered in the paths. For innovation-driven model, research on exploitation and utilization of low and middle grade phosphorite shall be strengthened. In other words,.research on low and middle grade phosphate rock selection shall be strengthened. In particular, research on utilization of low and middle grade phosphate rock in phosphorous chemical industry shall be strengthened; attention shall be paid to mine environment protection and sustainable development strategies implemented. In addition, Mineral Resource Law shall be carried out and local small mines shall be supported and managed well. Moreover, strengthening phosphorous environmental legislation, reinforcing national environment supervision and protection towards phosphorite and implementing scientific extraction and realizing sustainable development of phosphorous resources are listed in the paths. And strengthening governments' role in guiding and supervising exploitation of phosphorous resources, accelerating the building of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industry clusters and transforming resource utilization patterns and improving resource utilization efficiency are parts of the paths as well. Last but not least, enhancing accumulation of human capital, establishing regional technical innovation systems, improving and upgrading industry structure and reorganizing regional spatial structure are irresistible according to the paths.
The main innovation of this paper lies in the use of resource economics, industrial economics theory and quantitative economic methods to study the relation between extraction and exploitation of Hubei's phosphorous resources and economic development. The relation is the new exploration of this research paper for the following reasons. First of all, single minerals are taken as studying objects for the first time. As for the position and role of phosphorite and phosphorous chemical industry in Hubei's social and economic development, theme exploration and research on development strategies and path choices of characteristic resource and advantage industries are conducted. Secondly, it is the first time to systematically analyze the present situations of exploration and utilization of phosphorous resources on regional and industrial levels and from the three aspects:phosphorous resources, selection of phosphorite and deep processing of phosphorite. And main characteristics and development laws of phosphorous industry are deeply explored, including distribution of phosphorous resources, the industry's development status, future development trends and main problems with the resources'extraction and exploitation. Thirdly, Hubei's phosphorous resource development strategies are explicitly proposed for the first time. Centering on innovation-driven strategy, the strategies are based on factor-driven strategy and aimed at realizing leapfrog development and sustainable development of Hubei's phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries. Besides, for the above development strategies, optimal path choices aimed at resource expansion, capital operation, scientific research and collaborative innovation, harmony and win-win and consistent enforcement of geological prospecting work are put forward. What's more, implementing high quality deposit exploration, strengthening exploitation and utilization of low grade phosphorous resources and accelerating the building of phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industry clusters are proposed. Apart from these, optimizing and upgrading industry structure are also put forward, as well as realizing leapfrog development and sustainable development of Hubei's phosphorous and phosphorous chemical industries.
引文
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