基于系统动力学的高校科技产业可持续发展研究
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摘要
随着高校科技产业规模的不断扩大,高校科技产业的可持续发展问题越来越受到关注。一方面,由于高校科技产业的特殊性,其依托高校的特点决定了治理和管理存在诸多难题；另一方面,高校科技产业的可持续发展与一般企业不同,具有其独特性,需要从理论上进行研究。因此,基于中国高校科技产业现状,系统地研究高校科技产业可持续发展,具有重要的理论意义和实际价值。
基于以上认识,本文运用规范和实证相结合的方法,首先结合大样本和结构方程模型方法验证了高校科技产业可持续发展的驱动因素；其次,基于驱动因素及其对应的变量,构建和测试了系统动力学模型；最后,结合系统动力学模型,对高校科技产业可持续发展的政策进行了仿真实验与优化。
主要工作和结论有：
第一,构建了高校科技产业系统体系。高校科技产业系统由元素(包括高校支持、政府支持和社会支持三个元素集)、功能(包括高校科技产业可持续发展和高校科技成果转化)、外部环境(包括政府部门是否鼓励高校兴办科技产业、财政税收优惠政策、宏观经济运行状况、社会对高校科技产业的认知与认可),以及元素之间相互关系等构成,是一个动态复杂的有机体系。
第二,提出了高校科技产业可持续发展协同模型,并予以实证检验。根据调研问卷,通过运用相关分析、多元回归分析、结构方程模型系统检验了政府支持(ZS)、高校支持(US)、供应链的密切合作(SC)、竞争者的竞争强度(JC)、与外部科研机构的技术协作(TC)、吸收能力(AA)、知识传递能力(AK)和资源整合能力(AR)与可持续发展(SD)之间的关系。本文通过实证分析得出了相应结论：(1)政府、高校和社会支持是促进高校科技产业可持续发展的关键外部因素；(2)企业能力(吸收能力、知识传递能力和资源整合能力)是促进高校科技产业可持续发展的关键内部因素；(3)政府、高校和社会支持直接或间接影响高校科技产业可持续发展。
第三,构建了高校科技产业可持续发展系统动力学模型,并结合实例予以测试。在系统动力学模型建立的过程中,本文构建了四个子模块,分别为高校科技产业可持续发展子模块、高校支持子模块、政府支持子模块和社会支持子模块。在子模块的基础上,本文构建了系统动力学的因果关系图和系统流图,并进而建立了流位变量、流率变量、辅助变量、常量和相应的数学公式。在建立系统动力学模型的基础上,本文结合依托我国某著名高校计算机学院成立的高校科技企业(A公司)的实际数据对系统动力学模型进行了测试。
第四,结合系统动力学模型分析了高校科技产业的部分政策,并对政策优化提出了针对性建议。通过系统动力学模型参数的变动,可实现对高校科技产业政策的实验与优化。政策实验与优化表明,高校支持政策对高校科技产业可持续发展具有积极的推动作用；从长期来看,政府支持力度可以有效提升高校科技产业的盈利增长率,但对销售收入增长率的影响较小；增加社会支持力度,高校科技产业的实际可持续发展能力得到了有效提升。
第五,提出了促进高校科技产业可持续发展的对策建议,并对未来研究进行了展望。对策建议具体分四点,分别为：(1)鉴于高校、政府及社会的支持是促进高校科技产业可持续发展的关键驱动因素,应协调发挥三者的作用；(2)鉴于高校技术／智力支持已成为高校科技产业可持续发展的重要因素,应加强两者之间产学研结合的深度和广度；(3)政府支持带来的积极作用明显但不全面,应切实创新支持模式,提升高校科技产业的市场竞争力；(4)社会支持对高校科技产业可持续发展意义重大,应切实发挥其职能,推进高校科技产业的社会化程度。同时,本文提出,未来应以高校知识创新与转移的效率和效益为核心研究高校、政府和社会对高校科技产业的支持。
With its continuous expansion of scale, the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries is paid more and more attention. On the one hand, there are many management and governance challenges in university-owned sci-tech industries because of its particularity, that is the dependence on universities. On the other hand, the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries is different with general business and it's uniqueness needs to be studied theoretically. Therefore, research on the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries with its basis on the present situation of university-owned sci-tech industries in China has important theoetical significance and practical value.
On the basis of the above understanding, the thesis attempts to explore the issue concerned with the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries, employing the combined method of specifications and demonstration. First of all, the driving factors affecting the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries are verified based on the method of combination of large samples and structural equation model. Secondly, system dynamics model is built and tested relying on the driving factors and their corresponding variables. Finally, integrating with the systems dynamics model, simulation experiment and optimization concerning policies for the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries are conducted.
Main work and conclusions are made in this thesis:
Ⅰ. To build system of university-owned sci-tech industries. This system is composed of factors(including University support, Government support and Social support), effects(the sustainability of university owned industries and the transformation of sci-tech achievements of universities), external environment(comprising of support from government, finance and tax preferential policy, situation of macroeconomic, recogniton and acceptence of society towards the industry) and ralations, forming a complex and dynamic organic system.
Ⅱ.To put forward a coordination model of the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries, and test it with empirical methods. According to the questionnaire, the thesis has verified the relationship between the sustainable development and government support, university support, cooperation with supply chains, intensity of competition, technical collaboration with outside scientific institutions, absorptive ability, knowledge transmission capacity and ability of resource integration, employing correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, structural equation model. Correspondingly, the conclusion is made through empirical analyses in this article. Firstly, the support from government, university and society is the key external factor in promoting sustainable development of university-owned sci-tech industries. Secondly, enterprise ability (absorptive ability, knowledge transmission capacity and resource integration abilitiy) is key internal factor in promoting the sustainability of the industriy. Thirdly, the Government, university and social support affect the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries directly and indirectly.
Ⅲ. To build the system dynamics model of the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries, and test it with real cases. In the process of building system dynamics model, the thesis has built four modules, namely sub module of the sustainable development of university-owned sci-tech industries; sub module of university support; sub module of the government support; sub module of social support. Based on the sub modules, the article has constructed causal loop diagram and system flowchart of the system dynamics, and then established level variable, flow rate variable, auxiliary variable, contents and their relevant mathematical formula. On the basis of the system dynamics model, the thesis has tested the model, integrating with actual operating data of a university-owned sci-tech enterprise (A company) established by the computer school of a famous university in China.
Ⅳ. To test some policies of university-owned sci-tech industries combining with system dynamics model, and put forword targeted suggestions concerned with policy optimization. Through the changes of parameter in system dynamic model, it can come to the experiment and optimization of policies of university-owned sci-tech industry and the conclusion demonstrated that support policy of universities play an active role for sustainable development of the industry. In the long term, Government support can effectively improve the earnings growth rate of the industry, but has less impact on sales growth rate. However, to increase social support can effectively promote practical sustainable development capacity of university-owned sci-tech industry.
Ⅴ. To put forward solutions and suggestions to promote sustainable development of university-owned sci-tech industries, and discuss the future research in this field. Here are the four proposals:(1) Considering that the supports of universities, government and society can be regarded as the key factor in promoting sustainable development of university-owned sci-tech industry, we should coordinate them to play their roles.(2) in view of the fact that university technical/intelligence supports have become the important factors of sustainable development of the industry, we should strengthen the depth and breadth of the integration among research, study and industry.(3) Because the impact of government support is active but not comprehensive, we should innovate support mode, and improve market competitiveness of the industry.(4) Considering social support plays a significant role in sustainable development of university-owned sci-tech industry, we should take its advantages to propel the level of socialization of the industry. Simultaneously, this thesis points out that the future research on the support from government, university and society for the development of university-owned sci-tech industries should be centered on the efficiency and effectiveness of knowledge innovation and transmission of university.
基于以上认识,本文运用规范和实证相结合的方法,首先结合大样本和结构方程模型方法验证了高校科技产业可持续发展的驱动因素；其次,基于驱动因素及其对应的变量,构建和测试了系统动力学模型；最后,结合系统动力学模型,对高校科技产业可持续发展的政策进行了仿真实验与优化。
主要工作和结论有：
第一,构建了高校科技产业系统体系。高校科技产业系统由元素(包括高校支持、政府支持和社会支持三个元素集)、功能(包括高校科技产业可持续发展和高校科技成果转化)、外部环境(包括政府部门是否鼓励高校兴办科技产业、财政税收优惠政策、宏观经济运行状况、社会对高校科技产业的认知与认可),以及元素之间相互关系等构成,是一个动态复杂的有机体系。
第二,提出了高校科技产业可持续发展协同模型,并予以实证检验。根据调研问卷,通过运用相关分析、多元回归分析、结构方程模型系统检验了政府支持(ZS)、高校支持(US)、供应链的密切合作(SC)、竞争者的竞争强度(JC)、与外部科研机构的技术协作(TC)、吸收能力(AA)、知识传递能力(AK)和资源整合能力(AR)与可持续发展(SD)之间的关系。本文通过实证分析得出了相应结论：(1)政府、高校和社会支持是促进高校科技产业可持续发展的关键外部因素；(2)企业能力(吸收能力、知识传递能力和资源整合能力)是促进高校科技产业可持续发展的关键内部因素；(3)政府、高校和社会支持直接或间接影响高校科技产业可持续发展。
第三,构建了高校科技产业可持续发展系统动力学模型,并结合实例予以测试。在系统动力学模型建立的过程中,本文构建了四个子模块,分别为高校科技产业可持续发展子模块、高校支持子模块、政府支持子模块和社会支持子模块。在子模块的基础上,本文构建了系统动力学的因果关系图和系统流图,并进而建立了流位变量、流率变量、辅助变量、常量和相应的数学公式。在建立系统动力学模型的基础上,本文结合依托我国某著名高校计算机学院成立的高校科技企业(A公司)的实际数据对系统动力学模型进行了测试。
第四,结合系统动力学模型分析了高校科技产业的部分政策,并对政策优化提出了针对性建议。通过系统动力学模型参数的变动,可实现对高校科技产业政策的实验与优化。政策实验与优化表明,高校支持政策对高校科技产业可持续发展具有积极的推动作用；从长期来看,政府支持力度可以有效提升高校科技产业的盈利增长率,但对销售收入增长率的影响较小；增加社会支持力度,高校科技产业的实际可持续发展能力得到了有效提升。
第五,提出了促进高校科技产业可持续发展的对策建议,并对未来研究进行了展望。对策建议具体分四点,分别为：(1)鉴于高校、政府及社会的支持是促进高校科技产业可持续发展的关键驱动因素,应协调发挥三者的作用；(2)鉴于高校技术／智力支持已成为高校科技产业可持续发展的重要因素,应加强两者之间产学研结合的深度和广度；(3)政府支持带来的积极作用明显但不全面,应切实创新支持模式,提升高校科技产业的市场竞争力；(4)社会支持对高校科技产业可持续发展意义重大,应切实发挥其职能,推进高校科技产业的社会化程度。同时,本文提出,未来应以高校知识创新与转移的效率和效益为核心研究高校、政府和社会对高校科技产业的支持。
With its continuous expansion of scale, the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries is paid more and more attention. On the one hand, there are many management and governance challenges in university-owned sci-tech industries because of its particularity, that is the dependence on universities. On the other hand, the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries is different with general business and it's uniqueness needs to be studied theoretically. Therefore, research on the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries with its basis on the present situation of university-owned sci-tech industries in China has important theoetical significance and practical value.
On the basis of the above understanding, the thesis attempts to explore the issue concerned with the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries, employing the combined method of specifications and demonstration. First of all, the driving factors affecting the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries are verified based on the method of combination of large samples and structural equation model. Secondly, system dynamics model is built and tested relying on the driving factors and their corresponding variables. Finally, integrating with the systems dynamics model, simulation experiment and optimization concerning policies for the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries are conducted.
Main work and conclusions are made in this thesis:
Ⅰ. To build system of university-owned sci-tech industries. This system is composed of factors(including University support, Government support and Social support), effects(the sustainability of university owned industries and the transformation of sci-tech achievements of universities), external environment(comprising of support from government, finance and tax preferential policy, situation of macroeconomic, recogniton and acceptence of society towards the industry) and ralations, forming a complex and dynamic organic system.
Ⅱ.To put forward a coordination model of the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries, and test it with empirical methods. According to the questionnaire, the thesis has verified the relationship between the sustainable development and government support, university support, cooperation with supply chains, intensity of competition, technical collaboration with outside scientific institutions, absorptive ability, knowledge transmission capacity and ability of resource integration, employing correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, structural equation model. Correspondingly, the conclusion is made through empirical analyses in this article. Firstly, the support from government, university and society is the key external factor in promoting sustainable development of university-owned sci-tech industries. Secondly, enterprise ability (absorptive ability, knowledge transmission capacity and resource integration abilitiy) is key internal factor in promoting the sustainability of the industriy. Thirdly, the Government, university and social support affect the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries directly and indirectly.
Ⅲ. To build the system dynamics model of the sustainability of university-owned sci-tech industries, and test it with real cases. In the process of building system dynamics model, the thesis has built four modules, namely sub module of the sustainable development of university-owned sci-tech industries; sub module of university support; sub module of the government support; sub module of social support. Based on the sub modules, the article has constructed causal loop diagram and system flowchart of the system dynamics, and then established level variable, flow rate variable, auxiliary variable, contents and their relevant mathematical formula. On the basis of the system dynamics model, the thesis has tested the model, integrating with actual operating data of a university-owned sci-tech enterprise (A company) established by the computer school of a famous university in China.
Ⅳ. To test some policies of university-owned sci-tech industries combining with system dynamics model, and put forword targeted suggestions concerned with policy optimization. Through the changes of parameter in system dynamic model, it can come to the experiment and optimization of policies of university-owned sci-tech industry and the conclusion demonstrated that support policy of universities play an active role for sustainable development of the industry. In the long term, Government support can effectively improve the earnings growth rate of the industry, but has less impact on sales growth rate. However, to increase social support can effectively promote practical sustainable development capacity of university-owned sci-tech industry.
Ⅴ. To put forward solutions and suggestions to promote sustainable development of university-owned sci-tech industries, and discuss the future research in this field. Here are the four proposals:(1) Considering that the supports of universities, government and society can be regarded as the key factor in promoting sustainable development of university-owned sci-tech industry, we should coordinate them to play their roles.(2) in view of the fact that university technical/intelligence supports have become the important factors of sustainable development of the industry, we should strengthen the depth and breadth of the integration among research, study and industry.(3) Because the impact of government support is active but not comprehensive, we should innovate support mode, and improve market competitiveness of the industry.(4) Considering social support plays a significant role in sustainable development of university-owned sci-tech industry, we should take its advantages to propel the level of socialization of the industry. Simultaneously, this thesis points out that the future research on the support from government, university and society for the development of university-owned sci-tech industries should be centered on the efficiency and effectiveness of knowledge innovation and transmission of university.
引文
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