中国—东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易实证研究
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摘要
从2002年11月,东盟和中国签署了《中国--东盟全面经济合作框架协议》,标志着中国--东盟自由贸易区进程的正式启动,到2005年7月执行《货物贸易协定》,实施全面降税。在短短几年时间里,中国--东盟自由贸易区已经建设成为继欧盟和拉美自由贸易区后的世界第三大自由贸易区。与此同时,我国与东盟各国的贸易得到迅速发展,双边产业内贸易的份额在不断增加。根据新贸易理论可知:产业内贸易的发展可以减少各国贸易自由化时的经济调整成本,扩大区内贸易,增加区域内成员国的福利水平。所以,加强对中国--东盟的产业内贸易研究,不仅对提升我国产业竞争力,优化出口结构有着重要的现实意义,而且对进一步建设好中国--东盟的自由贸易区也有着较为重要的理论意义。
为了研究中国--东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易的发展,文章首先对产业内贸易理论和产业内贸易的计量方法进行了简要的介绍,接着利用产业内贸易指数和调整后的G-H-M方法,对中国与东盟五国贸易中较为集中的15大类产业的水平性和垂直性产业内贸易情况进行了实证分析,得出双边产业内贸易的商品主要集中在加工制成品以及资本技术密集型产品上,并且其主要份额大多集中在低质量产品市场和同质产品市场,亦即双边产业内贸易是以低质量的垂直性产业内贸易和水平性产业内贸易为主。
为进一步探索究竟是什么因素影响和制约了双边国家产业内贸易的发展,本文接着对影响中国与东盟间产业内贸易发展的因素进行了较为系统的分析,并采用引力模型对其中几个重要的因素进行实证检验。检验结果表明,国家的经济总量、市场规模以及人均收入水平是影响中国--东盟产业内贸易发展的正相关因素,而贸易双边国家的距离以及双边之间的直接投资是影响双边产业内贸易发展的负相关因素。
最后,笔者针对中国--东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易发展存在的一些问题,提出了要加快自由贸易区建设的步伐,以推动双边的经济和贸易向良性化发展;注重实施产品差异化战略,以促进双边产业内贸易的发展;积极推动双边对外直接投资的进一步发展,减少双边在产业内贸易中的逆差等建议和对策。
In November of 2002, ASEAN(Association of South-east Asian Nations) signed“The agreement on comprehensive economic cooperation between China and ASEAN”with China, which marked that CAFTA(China and ASEAN Free Trade Area) has started formally.CAFTA has carried out“The trade agreement of the goods”in July of 2005, and took measures to reduce the taxes rate in an all-round way. Within several years, CATFA had already become the third largest free trade area of world after European Union and free trade area of Latin America. Meanwhile, the trade between our country and each ASEAN country developed rapidly, and the share of the bilateral IIT (Intra-industry trade) is increasing continually. According to the new foreign trade theory, the development of IIT can reduce both country's economic readjustment cost, expand foreign trade in an area and increase the welfare for each member in the area. Thus, the research of IIT between China and ASEAN is of great importance to promote industrial competence and optimize our export structure, also, it is meaningful to build CAFTA well in future.
In order to research the devolpment of IIT between China and ASEAN, firstly, the article introduces the intra-industry trade theory and metering method briefly. Then, the author use IIT index and the G-H-M method after adjustment to analyze the horizontal and vertical IIT of the 15 kinds of main industries between China and five countries of ASEAN .We get the conclusion that the commodity of bilateral IIT mainly concentrate in the processing finished goods and the capital, technology-intensive products. And the low quality product market and the homogeneous product market take the main part, that is to say, the low quality vertical IIT and horizontal IIT trade stands as the core.
In order to further explore what are factors that affect and restrict development of bilateral country in the IIT, this essay analyzes the main factors that influence development of IIT between China and the ASEAN systematically , it uses the Gravity model to examine several important factors among them. It obtains that the total national economic output and the market scale, as well as the per capita income level, are positive correlation factors for development of IIT between China and ASEAN, but the distance of bilateral countries and direct investment between China and the ASEAN countries are negative factors.
Finally, according to some problems that exist in development of the CAFTA IIT, the author propose that bilateral countries need accelerate the construction of FTA in order to promote bilateral economy and trade development well. Implementing products differences strategy in order to promote the development of IIT in the bilateral countries is also need. Take actively measure to promote further development of foreign direct investment in the bilateral countries and to reduce the trade deficit of bilateral IIT.
为了研究中国--东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易的发展,文章首先对产业内贸易理论和产业内贸易的计量方法进行了简要的介绍,接着利用产业内贸易指数和调整后的G-H-M方法,对中国与东盟五国贸易中较为集中的15大类产业的水平性和垂直性产业内贸易情况进行了实证分析,得出双边产业内贸易的商品主要集中在加工制成品以及资本技术密集型产品上,并且其主要份额大多集中在低质量产品市场和同质产品市场,亦即双边产业内贸易是以低质量的垂直性产业内贸易和水平性产业内贸易为主。
为进一步探索究竟是什么因素影响和制约了双边国家产业内贸易的发展,本文接着对影响中国与东盟间产业内贸易发展的因素进行了较为系统的分析,并采用引力模型对其中几个重要的因素进行实证检验。检验结果表明,国家的经济总量、市场规模以及人均收入水平是影响中国--东盟产业内贸易发展的正相关因素,而贸易双边国家的距离以及双边之间的直接投资是影响双边产业内贸易发展的负相关因素。
最后,笔者针对中国--东盟自由贸易区产业内贸易发展存在的一些问题,提出了要加快自由贸易区建设的步伐,以推动双边的经济和贸易向良性化发展;注重实施产品差异化战略,以促进双边产业内贸易的发展;积极推动双边对外直接投资的进一步发展,减少双边在产业内贸易中的逆差等建议和对策。
In November of 2002, ASEAN(Association of South-east Asian Nations) signed“The agreement on comprehensive economic cooperation between China and ASEAN”with China, which marked that CAFTA(China and ASEAN Free Trade Area) has started formally.CAFTA has carried out“The trade agreement of the goods”in July of 2005, and took measures to reduce the taxes rate in an all-round way. Within several years, CATFA had already become the third largest free trade area of world after European Union and free trade area of Latin America. Meanwhile, the trade between our country and each ASEAN country developed rapidly, and the share of the bilateral IIT (Intra-industry trade) is increasing continually. According to the new foreign trade theory, the development of IIT can reduce both country's economic readjustment cost, expand foreign trade in an area and increase the welfare for each member in the area. Thus, the research of IIT between China and ASEAN is of great importance to promote industrial competence and optimize our export structure, also, it is meaningful to build CAFTA well in future.
In order to research the devolpment of IIT between China and ASEAN, firstly, the article introduces the intra-industry trade theory and metering method briefly. Then, the author use IIT index and the G-H-M method after adjustment to analyze the horizontal and vertical IIT of the 15 kinds of main industries between China and five countries of ASEAN .We get the conclusion that the commodity of bilateral IIT mainly concentrate in the processing finished goods and the capital, technology-intensive products. And the low quality product market and the homogeneous product market take the main part, that is to say, the low quality vertical IIT and horizontal IIT trade stands as the core.
In order to further explore what are factors that affect and restrict development of bilateral country in the IIT, this essay analyzes the main factors that influence development of IIT between China and the ASEAN systematically , it uses the Gravity model to examine several important factors among them. It obtains that the total national economic output and the market scale, as well as the per capita income level, are positive correlation factors for development of IIT between China and ASEAN, but the distance of bilateral countries and direct investment between China and the ASEAN countries are negative factors.
Finally, according to some problems that exist in development of the CAFTA IIT, the author propose that bilateral countries need accelerate the construction of FTA in order to promote bilateral economy and trade development well. Implementing products differences strategy in order to promote the development of IIT in the bilateral countries is also need. Take actively measure to promote further development of foreign direct investment in the bilateral countries and to reduce the trade deficit of bilateral IIT.
引文
① Gray, P.H. Two-way International Trade in Manufactures: A Theoretical Underpinnings [J]. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv ,1973,(109):19-39.
② Davies, R. Two-way international Trade: A Comment [J]. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1977,(113):179-181.
①Gruble, H. G. & Lloyd, P. J. Intra-Industry Trade:The Theory and Measurement of International Trade in Differentiated Products [M].London: The Macmillan Press Ltd , 1975.
① Shaked, A. and Sutton, J. Natural oligopolies and international trade[C].in edited by Kierzkowski ,H. Monopolistic Competition and International Trade. Oxford: Oxford University Press , 1984:34-50.
① Eaton, J. and Kierzkowski,H. Oligopolies competition, product variety and international trade[C].in Kierzkowski.H., Monopolistic Competition and International Trade. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1984.
①Aquino,A. Intra-Industry Trade and Inter-Industry Specialization as Concurrent Sources of International Trade in Manufactures[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1978,114(2):275-296.
① 数据来源于东盟秘书网,网址:http://www.aseansec.org.
② 数据来源于环商数据网,网址:http://news.worldbydata.com/zxnewview-9899.htm.
①资料来源:王娟.中国——东盟产业内贸易的实证分析[D].广西:广西大学,2004.
① 资料来源:李红.中国东盟区域贸易 2005-2006 年分析与预测[J].东南亚纵横,2006,(3):1-3. 另注:在占东盟贸易比例一项的合计中由于取小数的原因计算得到的和可能不为 100%。
②Amiti, Mary and Anthony J. Venables. The Geography of Intra-industry Trade[C].In P.J. Lloyd and Hyun-Hoon Lee (eds.), Frontiers of Research in Intra-Industry Trade. Basingstoke: Palgrave, forthcoming, 2002.
① 数据来源:2004年东盟统计年鉴(ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, 2004).
①李红.中国东盟区域贸易 2005-2006 年分析与预测[J].东南亚纵横,2006,(3):1-3.
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② Davies, R. Two-way international Trade: A Comment [J]. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1977,(113):179-181.
①Gruble, H. G. & Lloyd, P. J. Intra-Industry Trade:The Theory and Measurement of International Trade in Differentiated Products [M].London: The Macmillan Press Ltd , 1975.
① Shaked, A. and Sutton, J. Natural oligopolies and international trade[C].in edited by Kierzkowski ,H. Monopolistic Competition and International Trade. Oxford: Oxford University Press , 1984:34-50.
① Eaton, J. and Kierzkowski,H. Oligopolies competition, product variety and international trade[C].in Kierzkowski.H., Monopolistic Competition and International Trade. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1984.
①Aquino,A. Intra-Industry Trade and Inter-Industry Specialization as Concurrent Sources of International Trade in Manufactures[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1978,114(2):275-296.
① 数据来源于东盟秘书网,网址:http://www.aseansec.org.
② 数据来源于环商数据网,网址:http://news.worldbydata.com/zxnewview-9899.htm.
①资料来源:王娟.中国——东盟产业内贸易的实证分析[D].广西:广西大学,2004.
① 资料来源:李红.中国东盟区域贸易 2005-2006 年分析与预测[J].东南亚纵横,2006,(3):1-3. 另注:在占东盟贸易比例一项的合计中由于取小数的原因计算得到的和可能不为 100%。
②Amiti, Mary and Anthony J. Venables. The Geography of Intra-industry Trade[C].In P.J. Lloyd and Hyun-Hoon Lee (eds.), Frontiers of Research in Intra-Industry Trade. Basingstoke: Palgrave, forthcoming, 2002.
① 数据来源:2004年东盟统计年鉴(ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, 2004).
①李红.中国东盟区域贸易 2005-2006 年分析与预测[J].东南亚纵横,2006,(3):1-3.
[1] 王娟.中国--东盟产业内贸易发展趋势的实证分析[J].东南亚纵横,2004,(6):33-37.
[2] 强永昌.产业内贸易——国际贸易最新理论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2002:10-75.
[3] Lancaster, K. Intra-Industry Trade under Perfect Monopolistic Competition[J]. Journal of International Economics, 1980, 10(2): 151-175.
[4] 马剑飞、朱红磊、许罗丹.对中国产业内贸易决定因素的经验研究[J].世界经济,2002,(9):22-27.
[5] 徐娅玮.中国产业内贸易的现状与成因分析[J].国际贸易问题,2001,(12):29-30.
[6] 王国安、范昌子.中欧贸易互补性研究—基于比较优势理论和产业内贸易理论的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2006,(3):61-66.
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