铁路灾害风险评估与应急救援策略研究
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摘要
铁路应急管理工作的重中之重,在于加强事故发生前的预防和准备,风险评估与资源配置是安全预防与应急准备的重要工作。论文在深入分析铁路致灾因素的基础上,提出灾害风险评估方法,得出铁路线路事故发生概率与严重程度预测结果；以此为依据建立铁路救援资源优化配置模型,设计算法求解模型并进行实例应用。论文通过文献查阅、实地调研、专家调查、模拟仿真等方法,解决铁路线路风险评估及救援资源优化配置的分析、抽象、建模、求解、应用等问题。论文的主要研究工作如下：
1、深入分析风险评估及资源配置相关研究的国内外现状,根据铁路应急管理工作的特点,提出以铁路风险评估的结果为依据,科学合理地配置铁路救援资源的思路。结合中国铁路系统的实际情况,对铁路常见灾害的致灾因素危险性进行分析。
2、通过对铁路突发事件及灾害的发生、发展、演化机理的分析,研究事件传播特性、影响域,以及灾害演化与应急保障的进程关系。研究铁路应急救援的各个关键环节要素、救援流程,探索如何将风险评估、资源配置与救援策略相结合。
3、从人员因素、设备因素、环境因素和管理因素四个方面,对铁路致灾因素进行分析,引入改进梯形模糊数的层次分析法,建立铁路灾害风险评估体系。
4、深入分析铁路救援资源的类型,研究铁路救援资源类型、数量与事故严重程度的对应关系,为科学配置覆盖不同风险的救援资源储备点中的资源提供依据。以铁路事故风险评估的结果为依据,在预测事故点位置及事故严重程度的基础上,提出基于集合覆盖模型的铁路救援资源优化配置多目标模型,采用蚁群算法求解。
5、根据研究的铁路灾害风险评估方法和资源优化配置模型理论,结合某铁路局突发事件及灾害历史统计数据,对模型和算法进行实例应用,研发救援策略决策支持的关键技术,实现平台应用。
The most important part of Railway Emergency Management is to strengthen the work of accident prevention and preparedness.Risk evaluation and resources strategy are the part of emergency management before the accident. Based on the in-depth analysis of the railway causal factors of disaster, the method of disaster risk evaluation is put forward in this paper, and the result of railway's risk degree and probability can be gained. After that, the model of railway rescue resources optimization allocation is build, and the solve algorithm and application method are put forward. The problems including analysis, abstract, modeling, solving and application of railway risk evaluation and resources allocation problems have been settled through survey, questionnaire, literature review and simulation in this paper. The main research works are as follows:
1. This paper deeply analyzed the risk assessment and resource allocation of domestic and foreign countries. According to the characteristics of the railway emergency management work, based on the railway risk assessment, this paper proposed scientific and rational ideas to configure the railway rescue resources. Combining with the actual situation of China's railway system, this paper analyzed the risk of the causal factors of the rail disasters.
2. Through analyzing mechanism of railway disasters occur, development and evolution, the event propagation characteristics, influence range, disaster evolution and process relationship of the emergency support are studied. This paper analyzed the key elements and process of the emergency rescue, and studied how to combine the risk evaluation and resources allocation with management strategy for the railway.
3. Based on the four aspects of human factors, equipment factors, environmental factors, management factors, this paper analyzed the railway causal factors, presented the analytic hierarchy process of trapezoidal fuzzy number, and established risk assessment system of the railway disaster.
4. The relationship between type and number of railway rescue resource with accident severity is put forward after the in-depth analysis of the railway rescue resource type. It supported the idea that different degree of risk needed different type and number of rescue resource. Then the multi-object model of railway rescue resource allocation is built based on setting covering model. This model grounded on the result of railway risk evaluation, the location and the degree of railway risk. The ant colony algorithm is employed to figure out the model.
5. The railway risk evaluation and rescue resource allocation model is applied in some Railway Bureau based on the result of historical statistics of emergencies and disasters, and the key technologies of decision support system and application of platform are explored.
1、深入分析风险评估及资源配置相关研究的国内外现状,根据铁路应急管理工作的特点,提出以铁路风险评估的结果为依据,科学合理地配置铁路救援资源的思路。结合中国铁路系统的实际情况,对铁路常见灾害的致灾因素危险性进行分析。
2、通过对铁路突发事件及灾害的发生、发展、演化机理的分析,研究事件传播特性、影响域,以及灾害演化与应急保障的进程关系。研究铁路应急救援的各个关键环节要素、救援流程,探索如何将风险评估、资源配置与救援策略相结合。
3、从人员因素、设备因素、环境因素和管理因素四个方面,对铁路致灾因素进行分析,引入改进梯形模糊数的层次分析法,建立铁路灾害风险评估体系。
4、深入分析铁路救援资源的类型,研究铁路救援资源类型、数量与事故严重程度的对应关系,为科学配置覆盖不同风险的救援资源储备点中的资源提供依据。以铁路事故风险评估的结果为依据,在预测事故点位置及事故严重程度的基础上,提出基于集合覆盖模型的铁路救援资源优化配置多目标模型,采用蚁群算法求解。
5、根据研究的铁路灾害风险评估方法和资源优化配置模型理论,结合某铁路局突发事件及灾害历史统计数据,对模型和算法进行实例应用,研发救援策略决策支持的关键技术,实现平台应用。
The most important part of Railway Emergency Management is to strengthen the work of accident prevention and preparedness.Risk evaluation and resources strategy are the part of emergency management before the accident. Based on the in-depth analysis of the railway causal factors of disaster, the method of disaster risk evaluation is put forward in this paper, and the result of railway's risk degree and probability can be gained. After that, the model of railway rescue resources optimization allocation is build, and the solve algorithm and application method are put forward. The problems including analysis, abstract, modeling, solving and application of railway risk evaluation and resources allocation problems have been settled through survey, questionnaire, literature review and simulation in this paper. The main research works are as follows:
1. This paper deeply analyzed the risk assessment and resource allocation of domestic and foreign countries. According to the characteristics of the railway emergency management work, based on the railway risk assessment, this paper proposed scientific and rational ideas to configure the railway rescue resources. Combining with the actual situation of China's railway system, this paper analyzed the risk of the causal factors of the rail disasters.
2. Through analyzing mechanism of railway disasters occur, development and evolution, the event propagation characteristics, influence range, disaster evolution and process relationship of the emergency support are studied. This paper analyzed the key elements and process of the emergency rescue, and studied how to combine the risk evaluation and resources allocation with management strategy for the railway.
3. Based on the four aspects of human factors, equipment factors, environmental factors, management factors, this paper analyzed the railway causal factors, presented the analytic hierarchy process of trapezoidal fuzzy number, and established risk assessment system of the railway disaster.
4. The relationship between type and number of railway rescue resource with accident severity is put forward after the in-depth analysis of the railway rescue resource type. It supported the idea that different degree of risk needed different type and number of rescue resource. Then the multi-object model of railway rescue resource allocation is built based on setting covering model. This model grounded on the result of railway risk evaluation, the location and the degree of railway risk. The ant colony algorithm is employed to figure out the model.
5. The railway risk evaluation and rescue resource allocation model is applied in some Railway Bureau based on the result of historical statistics of emergencies and disasters, and the key technologies of decision support system and application of platform are explored.
引文
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