环境经济损失评估理论及应用研究
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摘要
可持续发展是指既满足现代人的需求又不损害后代人满足需求的能力的发展。换句话说,就是指经济、社会、资源和环境协调发展。然而纵观世界各国的经济发展历史,不论是在发达工业国家还是发展中国家,它们在经济发展过程中都付出了不同程度的环境代价。随着环境污染的日趋严重,世界各国纷纷开始重视环境问题,众多的学术研究成果为政府的环境污染治理措施提供了强有力的理论支持。而影响环境政策制定及其有效实行的一个关键问题就是对环境污染造成的经济损失进行合理、准确的度量。
本文的研究主题是环境损失经济核算的理论、方法和条件价值法(CVM)的应用实践。本文首先回顾了我国经济增长与环境污染的总体状况,并比较了发达工业国家、新兴工业国家和发展中国家在经济发展历程中的环境质量变化特征,发现各国在经济发展过程中都付出了不同程度的环境代价,因此环境问题已经成为各国决策者和学者的关注点。随后,本文从环境外部性的角度分析了导致环境质量下降和环境污染治理困难的根源所在,提出解决环境治理的市场失灵、政府失灵问题以及保证环境政策执行效果的关键是对环境损失的准确评价。
本文的主体部分阐述了环境损失经济核算的理论基础,从多个层面分析了环境价值的内涵,说明了条件价值法的可行性。基于对不同的环境价值评估方法的比较,本文强调了条件价值法在非使用价值测量中的重要作用,并对条件价值法的理论基础、具体实施步骤、存在的争议以及该方法在国内外的研究现状进行了评述。本文在实证部分以上海市居民由空气污染造成的健康损失评估为例,对条件价值法进行了具体的实践运用,分析结果表明:
(1)上海市居民为降低未来十年内千分之五(即每年万分之五)的死亡概率的支付意愿为741元/每年,由此推算的统计学生命价值为148.2万元,上海市由空气污染导致的经济损失为96.33亿元。(2)环境损失经济价值与区域社会经济水平和特征存在显著相关关系。上海市居民为空气质量改善的支付意愿与研究区域的年龄、收入水平、教育程度、健康状况和对保险的态度等因素具有显著的相关关系,各主要指标通过了有效性和可靠性检验。
结论部分基于实证分析结论提出了相关的政策建议,并总结了条件价值法应用的经验和体会:条件价值法对环境资源非使用价值评估的优势;影响支付意愿的因素;条件价值法评估结果的有效性。对于条件价值法在国内的理论研究和应用前景,本文认为条件价值法的发展需要各学科的综合参与、融合,在国内具有广阔的应用前景,但是需要更多的实例来研究该方法的有效性和可靠性。
Sustainable development refers to the development that could satisfy the demands of the current generations but without harm to the following generations' ability to satisfy their demands. In other words, economy, society, resource and environment may develop harmoniously. However, reviewing the history of economic development of the world, no matter in developed industrial countries or in developing countries, their economies grew on the cost of environment. With the deteriorating of environment quality, environmental issues started to be concerned seriously by almost all countries. Many researches focus on providing theoretical supports for governments to eliminate pollution. And one of the key issues that may influence the establishment and implementation of environmental policy is to measure economic losses caused by pollution reasonably and precisely.
The subject of this paper is focus on the theory and methods of assessing the economic losses caused by pollution, and the application of Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM). Firstly, reviewing the general status of economic growth and pollution in China, and comparing the changes of environment quality during the economic growth of developed, emerging and developing nations, we find that their economies grew on the cost of environment. Thus environmental issues have been the concerns of decision-makers and scholars. Subsequently, analyzing the courses of environmental deterioration and the difficulty in pollution elimination, this paper suggests that the key point of dealing with market failure and government failure is to assess economic losses caused by pollution reasonably and precisely.
Demonstrating the theoretical bases of the assessment of economic loss caused by environmental destruction, analyzing the concept of environmental value from three aspects, this paper confirms the feasibility of CVM. Basing on the comparison between different methods of assessing environmental value, showing the importance of CVM in assessing non-use value, this paper reviews the theoretical bases, implementation and critiques of CVM and its evolution in national and international studies. Applying CVM in the empirical study of assessing health loss caused by air pollution in Shanghai, it shows in this paper that:
(1) The willingness to pay (WTP) for reducing mortality by 5/1000 in the future ten years (i.e. 5/10000 per year) is 741 RMB per year. The calculated Value of Statistical Life (VSL) is 1.482 million RMB, and the economic loss caused by air pollution is 9.633 billion RMB in Shanghai. (2) The WTP value is significantly affected by age, income, education level, health status and the attitudes towards commercial insurance. The main indicators pass validity and reliability tests.
Basing on the empirical study, the final chapter proposes some related policy suggestions, and summarizes the experiences in the application of CVM: the advantages of CVM in assessing non-use value of environment; factors affecting the WTP; the validity of CVM results. As for the perspective of CVM in national theoretical researches and applications, this paper suggests that the multi-cooperation of several subjects is necessary for the development of CVM; furthermore, its validity and reliability are in need of researching by more applications.
本文的研究主题是环境损失经济核算的理论、方法和条件价值法(CVM)的应用实践。本文首先回顾了我国经济增长与环境污染的总体状况,并比较了发达工业国家、新兴工业国家和发展中国家在经济发展历程中的环境质量变化特征,发现各国在经济发展过程中都付出了不同程度的环境代价,因此环境问题已经成为各国决策者和学者的关注点。随后,本文从环境外部性的角度分析了导致环境质量下降和环境污染治理困难的根源所在,提出解决环境治理的市场失灵、政府失灵问题以及保证环境政策执行效果的关键是对环境损失的准确评价。
本文的主体部分阐述了环境损失经济核算的理论基础,从多个层面分析了环境价值的内涵,说明了条件价值法的可行性。基于对不同的环境价值评估方法的比较,本文强调了条件价值法在非使用价值测量中的重要作用,并对条件价值法的理论基础、具体实施步骤、存在的争议以及该方法在国内外的研究现状进行了评述。本文在实证部分以上海市居民由空气污染造成的健康损失评估为例,对条件价值法进行了具体的实践运用,分析结果表明:
(1)上海市居民为降低未来十年内千分之五(即每年万分之五)的死亡概率的支付意愿为741元/每年,由此推算的统计学生命价值为148.2万元,上海市由空气污染导致的经济损失为96.33亿元。(2)环境损失经济价值与区域社会经济水平和特征存在显著相关关系。上海市居民为空气质量改善的支付意愿与研究区域的年龄、收入水平、教育程度、健康状况和对保险的态度等因素具有显著的相关关系,各主要指标通过了有效性和可靠性检验。
结论部分基于实证分析结论提出了相关的政策建议,并总结了条件价值法应用的经验和体会:条件价值法对环境资源非使用价值评估的优势;影响支付意愿的因素;条件价值法评估结果的有效性。对于条件价值法在国内的理论研究和应用前景,本文认为条件价值法的发展需要各学科的综合参与、融合,在国内具有广阔的应用前景,但是需要更多的实例来研究该方法的有效性和可靠性。
Sustainable development refers to the development that could satisfy the demands of the current generations but without harm to the following generations' ability to satisfy their demands. In other words, economy, society, resource and environment may develop harmoniously. However, reviewing the history of economic development of the world, no matter in developed industrial countries or in developing countries, their economies grew on the cost of environment. With the deteriorating of environment quality, environmental issues started to be concerned seriously by almost all countries. Many researches focus on providing theoretical supports for governments to eliminate pollution. And one of the key issues that may influence the establishment and implementation of environmental policy is to measure economic losses caused by pollution reasonably and precisely.
The subject of this paper is focus on the theory and methods of assessing the economic losses caused by pollution, and the application of Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM). Firstly, reviewing the general status of economic growth and pollution in China, and comparing the changes of environment quality during the economic growth of developed, emerging and developing nations, we find that their economies grew on the cost of environment. Thus environmental issues have been the concerns of decision-makers and scholars. Subsequently, analyzing the courses of environmental deterioration and the difficulty in pollution elimination, this paper suggests that the key point of dealing with market failure and government failure is to assess economic losses caused by pollution reasonably and precisely.
Demonstrating the theoretical bases of the assessment of economic loss caused by environmental destruction, analyzing the concept of environmental value from three aspects, this paper confirms the feasibility of CVM. Basing on the comparison between different methods of assessing environmental value, showing the importance of CVM in assessing non-use value, this paper reviews the theoretical bases, implementation and critiques of CVM and its evolution in national and international studies. Applying CVM in the empirical study of assessing health loss caused by air pollution in Shanghai, it shows in this paper that:
(1) The willingness to pay (WTP) for reducing mortality by 5/1000 in the future ten years (i.e. 5/10000 per year) is 741 RMB per year. The calculated Value of Statistical Life (VSL) is 1.482 million RMB, and the economic loss caused by air pollution is 9.633 billion RMB in Shanghai. (2) The WTP value is significantly affected by age, income, education level, health status and the attitudes towards commercial insurance. The main indicators pass validity and reliability tests.
Basing on the empirical study, the final chapter proposes some related policy suggestions, and summarizes the experiences in the application of CVM: the advantages of CVM in assessing non-use value of environment; factors affecting the WTP; the validity of CVM results. As for the perspective of CVM in national theoretical researches and applications, this paper suggests that the multi-cooperation of several subjects is necessary for the development of CVM; furthermore, its validity and reliability are in need of researching by more applications.
引文
1 参见董锁成主编之《中国百年资源、环境与发展报告》,湖北科学技术出版社,2002年版。
2 参见刘燕华、周宏春主编之《中国资源环境形势与可持续发展》,经济科学出版社,2001年版。
4 引自薛进军等《中国的经济发展与环境问题》,东北财经大学出版社,2002年版。
6 参见李金昌(1994),《试论自然资源的价值问题》,《环境与经济》;李金昌(1994),《自然资源价值理论和定价方法研究》,《环境与经济》;李金昌(1994),《环境价值越来越大》,《环境与经济》。
7 参见马中(1993)《环境价值的取向、构成和量化》,《环境保护》;叶文虎(1994)《环境与社会、经济协调发展的理论与方法》,《环境管理与技术》。
10 参见世界银行报告《碧水蓝天,新世纪的中国环境》,中国财政经济出版社(北京),1997年出版。
12 参见李相然《城市化环境效应与环境保护》,中国建筑工业出版社(2004年版)。
13 参见施开良《环境、化学与人类健康》,化学工业出版社(2005年版);王兮等《环境与健康》,武汉大学出版社(2005年版)。
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2 参见刘燕华、周宏春主编之《中国资源环境形势与可持续发展》,经济科学出版社,2001年版。
4 引自薛进军等《中国的经济发展与环境问题》,东北财经大学出版社,2002年版。
6 参见李金昌(1994),《试论自然资源的价值问题》,《环境与经济》;李金昌(1994),《自然资源价值理论和定价方法研究》,《环境与经济》;李金昌(1994),《环境价值越来越大》,《环境与经济》。
7 参见马中(1993)《环境价值的取向、构成和量化》,《环境保护》;叶文虎(1994)《环境与社会、经济协调发展的理论与方法》,《环境管理与技术》。
10 参见世界银行报告《碧水蓝天,新世纪的中国环境》,中国财政经济出版社(北京),1997年出版。
12 参见李相然《城市化环境效应与环境保护》,中国建筑工业出版社(2004年版)。
13 参见施开良《环境、化学与人类健康》,化学工业出版社(2005年版);王兮等《环境与健康》,武汉大学出版社(2005年版)。
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